Patrick J. Ottensmeyer
Analyst · factors, including those factors identified in the Risk Factors section of the company's Form 10-K for the year end December 31, 2013 filed with the SEC. The company is not obligated to update any forward-looking statements in this presentation to reflect future events or developments. All reconciliations to GAAP can be found on the KCS website, www.kcsouthern.com. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, David Starling, President and Chief Executive Officer for Kansas City Southern. Mr. Starling, you may begin
Good morning, everyone. I will begin my comments on Slide 13. And as Dave has certainly mentioned earlier, revenues in the second quarter were $579.3 million, which was a record for any quarter and 6% higher than last year. Volumes grew by 3% from last year. Foreign exchange had a positive impact on revenues in the quarter of about $8.6 million. So excluding the impact of foreign exchange, our revenue growth would have been 4.7%. I will touch briefly on some of the individual business units represented on this page. Chemical & Petroleum revenues increased by 11%, driven largely by a 9% increase in revenue per unit. Two areas that stood out during the quarter were petroleum and plastic shipments in Mexico, which represents about 2/3 of the revenue growth in this segment. You may recall that this business unit was not particularly strong in the first quarter. And back in April, we reported that we did not see this as a cyclical turning point in this business, which has historically been one of the most reliable leading indicators in our business. As we expected at that time, we saw a pick-up during the quarter. And sequential volumes and revenue were higher by about 5% and 7%, respectively, from the first quarter. Revenues in our Industrial & Consumer business grew by 4% on volumes that were basically flat to last year. The main drivers here were pricing, mix and foreign exchange benefit. We saw a pretty decent volume growth in metals and scrap, particularly in the U.S., which was 6.9% higher, and pulp and paper mostly in Mexico, which was about 6% higher. And these are 2 of our larger commodity groups, but the volume growth there was essentially offset by decline in appliances, lumber and plywood and other, which is primarily military shipments. We did see strong growth in cross-border shipments of paper rolls during the quarter, which is very encouraging. For Ag & Minerals, as was the case in the first quarter, this group continued to be weak, although we did see some sequential improvements from the first quarter, with revenues and volume each improving by about 7% from the first quarter of 2013. We talked a lot about this area in the first quarter, and there really is not much new or different to add at this time. The problem, as Dave Starling mentioned, is the continued impact of the drought from last year. Growing conditions are certainly better than last year in our key origination regions, and we still feel good at this point about the new crop. Our order book for the fourth quarter is quite strong in some of our larger customers. So again, assuming that we have a decent crop, and I'll probably say that at least 2 more times in this presentation, the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter should be very strong. Going to our energy business, results were very strongly due to a 17% increase in unit utility coal from last year. The 12% increase in RPU was a function of increased length of haul and fuel surcharge revenue in our coal -- unit coal business. The 12% volume growth was driven by growth in pet coke and crude oil shipments. As you may remember, our utility coal business was very weak in the second quarter of 2012, so the comps here will probably get tougher for the rest of the year. I'll talk more about the outlook for 2013 in a few minutes. Revenues in our intermodal business grew by 13% on volume gains of 5%. The 8% revenue per unit growth was driven by strong growth in cross-border business, which generated 85% volume growth and 78% revenue growth from last year. As we have mentioned in the past, cross-border business has a longer length of haul and a higher RPU than the rest of our intermodal business. Lázaro Cárdenas revenues grew by 4% on a 6% decline in volume from last year. The main driver here was the loss of some aluminum pellet shipments that we had in the second quarter of 2012 that is running at a much reduced level this year. The impact of this aluminum business was a negative swing of about 7,000 units from last year. So adjusting for this one piece of business, Lázaro volume would have been about 8% higher than last year. Sequentially, Lázaro revenues and volumes did improve from first quarter levels by about 8% and 3%, respectively. Finally, our automotive business continued to produce solid results, with revenue increasing by 20% and volumes growing by 7% from last year. Foreign exchange was a contributor to the revenue per unit growth here, with more than half or about half of the total increase in RPU being attributed to foreign exchange. Volumes were negatively affected in the quarter by a General Motors plant shutdown in Mexico due to a model changeover. All of our auto plants are currently running and we do not expect any significant impact from plant closures in the third quarter. Moving to Slide 14, we show the impact of lower grain shipments, which is pretty self-explanatory. Dave mentioned this. You can see the numbers here with adjusting for the weakness in grain revenues in the quarter would have been up 11% on 4% volume growth. We are expecting grain to show continued double-digit year-over-year declines in July and August, but expect that the comps will turn positive in September and then turn to a fairly strong positive versus last year in the fourth quarter. And once again, our outlook is dependent on the weather and growing conditions for the rest of the season, which, at the moment, certainly look better than this time last year. Moving to Slide 15, you can see the cross-border revenue return to a positive year-over-year trajectory and -- year-over-year and sequential growth in spite of continued weakness in export grain. Cross-border shipments in our Ag & Minerals business fell by 23% from last year. And you may remember, this is the largest cross-border commodity group for us. Eliminating the impact of lower grain and food products business, our cross-border revenue would have been 14.5% higher than last year. This positive trend should continue, again, if the grain business meets our expectations in the fourth quarter. As for some of the other areas I'll highlight, we saw strong growth in chemicals and petroleum cross-border, which was 16.9% higher than last year. Industrial & Consumer grew by 11.6%. And, of course, I mentioned earlier, intermodal was up by 78%. Moving to Slide 16, we highlight our 5 strategic growth areas that Dave mentioned earlier in the quarter. The total growth here was 28% over last year. And again, this represents 19% of our total portfolio. With the exception of Lázaro Cárdenas, each of these businesses grew at a much higher rate than our overall portfolio. As I mentioned earlier, Lázaro results were heavily influenced by a negative swing in aluminum shipments. And adjusting for this decline in business, Lázaro would have been in the solid double-digit range. Moving on to the market outlook commentary on Slide 17. Here we show the full year guidance at this point in the year versus what we expected in April, and what we communicated to you on our first quarter earnings call. As you can see, the only change we made since April was to increase the full year outlook in the energy business from a high-single-digit outlook to double-digit line haul revenue growth. This is driven by the strong coal shipments we experienced in the second quarter, as well as our outlook for continued strong growth in crude oil and pet coke for the rest of the year. While the utility coal comps are going to get a little tougher in the second half, we are experiencing very warm weather in much of our service region. So the burn rates are high at the moment and stockpiles are at normal level. When you put all this together, on a consolidated basis, we are still comfortable with the guidance we gave back in April, as restated earlier today by Dave, for full year mid-single-digit volume and revenue growth for 2013. In fact, we did make up some ground toward that full year target from the first quarter of this year. As you can see, our outlook is slightly more positive than it was at that time. As I said earlier, we are expecting Ag & Minerals comps to be pretty good beginning in September and into the fourth quarter. So we will certainly make up some ground there versus where we are now on a year-to-date basis. If you look at our year-to-date numbers in all of the other business units, we are essentially running at levels that support this current outlook. The only other area that merits a comment is automotive, and the double-digit revenue growth outlook will be dependent on the foreign exchange rate for the rest of the year. If the peso stays where it is or strengthens further in the second half, we could possibly see growth rates in the high-single digits as opposed to the double digits. Moving to Slide 18, I'll touch briefly on some of these points. Of course, our business is dependent on the help of the overall company. And at this moment, it looks like -- it looks to us like we should continue to see slow but positive growth in both the U.S. and Mexico for the rest of the year. As Dave mentioned earlier, the pricing environment continues to be positive, and we are comfortable reiterating our mid-single-digit guidance for the rest of the year. I've already talked a lot about grain, so I feel like that story is pretty well understood. However, the USDA, on Monday, released their weekly update, which showed that 66% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent, which compares to only 31% at this time last year. And again, the only additional comment I'll make is that the 2 new shuttle loading facilities we have talked about in the past are either finished or nearing completion. And in fact, on Wednesday of this week, we loaded and departed the first 100 car train from the new Bartlett grain facility in Jacksonville, Illinois, and it was headed for Mexico. Our long-term business pipeline continues to be strong. We've talked in the past about the impact of the new auto plants. Those are just around the corner, opening in either late 2013 or early 2014. The trends for Mexico nearshoring continue to be very positive. And the factors underlying those trends, we don't see any change in that outlook for the near future. Intermodal, again, we're experiencing very high growth in our cross-border intermodal. And there is tremendous market share gains to be gained over the coming years in that area. And then finally, we've talked a little bit about the ethane and propane production capacity that's coming onstream that has been announced over the past year or so. There have been several announcements of new ethane, propane cracker facilities, refineries, in our service region, basically extending from Corpus Christi to New Orleans. That will produce good revenue gains for us beginning in sort of the 2015, 2016 and beyond. And finally, I'll mention Port Arthur. I'll say here the crude oil opportunity still look promising. Move over to Slide 19, I'm sure there's a lot of curiosity about the status of our negotiations toward a long-term agreement, so I will tell you where things stand today. We are still moving forward in exclusive negotiations and due diligence with our potential partner to build a crude oil terminal in Port Arthur, but we are not in a position to announce a definitive agreement at this time. We can say confidently that there has been no loss of interest or enthusiasm for this project on the part of either KCS or our partner. However, as we were moving to conclude negotiations on what could be a very long-term agreement involving substantial commitments on both sides, it became clear that additional due diligence was required, particularly around environmental and use permits. In the meantime, and to demonstrate our confidence that we will eventually conclude this agreement, KCS has entered into a purchase agreement to acquire an adjacent piece of property shown on Slide 19 here on the inset on the right that has an existing dock and permits to operate a barge-loading facility. We believe this dock could shorten the time to commercial operations and facilitate the development of this crude oil terminal. So our message is this: we are moving forward and subject to completion of due diligence and permitting, we continue to believe that we will reach agreement and develop a crude oil terminal on the property that we own in Port Arthur. However, even if there are further delays, there are other options in the Port Arthur area that will allow our crude oil business to grow. So we don't want to convey that there is anything that will tap our growth or limit our growth for the near term while we continue to work on the Port Arthur Crude Terminal. On Slide 20, we have a photograph of a new crude oil terminal in Beaumont, Texas, which as you can see on the photo on the left, is also very well-positioned to serve the Port Arthur market. In fact, it's about 10 miles away from the site that we're developing on our own property. This facility is owned by the Port of Beaumont. The rail loop track and connection to KCS mainline was completed just earlier this week. The rail track structure would have the capacity to handle and unload one 120-car-unit train per day. However, at this time, they do not have sufficient storage to efficiently operate at that level. The Port of Beaumont is currently building storage tanks and expect to have capacity for 1 million barrels by the end of 2013, increasing to 2 million barrels by the end of 2014. This will obviously increase the capacity for the rail unloading as they complete those projects. In addition, they're going to be adding steaming capabilities in 2014, which will allow this site to handle both the Bakken sweet crude, light crude, and the Canadian heavy crude. The only other comment I'll make here is just to reiterate that the real source of strength here for KCS, our strategic position here, is driven by the market, not by any one facility or particular transaction. And as you remember, we've talked about the number of refineries in this market, the fact that Port Arthur imports 1.5 to 2 million barrels a day of crude oil, and they want to bring crude by rail from both the Bakken region and Western Canada. So we still feel very optimistic about our position here and the future growth of crude by rail. With that, I will turn it over to Mike Upchurch.