Earnings Labs

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

Q3 2017 Earnings Call· Fri, May 26, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Samantha and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Q3 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Richard Galanti, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Thank you, Samantha and good afternoon to everyone. I’ll start by saying that these discussions will include forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual events, results and/or performance to differ materially from those indicated by such statements. The risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those outlined in today’s call, as well as other risks identified from time-to-time in the company’s public statements and reports filed with the SEC. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and we do not undertake to update these statements except as required by law. In today’s press release, we reported our third quarter and year-to-date fiscal year 2017 operating results for the 12-week and 36-week periods ended May 7th. For the 12-week fiscal third quarter, our reported earnings of $1.59 a share or $0.35 a share above last year's third quarter reported earnings of $1.24. As noted, in this afternoons release, the $1.59 reported EPS figure included an $82 million or $0.19 per share income tax benefit in connection with the $7 a share special cash dividend that the company declared on April 25th and which is payable tomorrow May 26th. The realized tax benefit related to the special dividend payable to company's 401k plan participants as it is considered compensation to employees under U.S. tax law. There is about a little over 30 million Costco shares held by employees among our other investments in the 401k plan. In addition to this one time earnings benefit, here are few other items I would note, when comparing year-over-year results. Number one first, our co-branded credit card as well as the case in both the first and second fiscal quarters in this…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of John Heinbockel.

John Heinbockel

Analyst

So Richard, first topic expansion and business centers. So you have added some more there is couple of coming here in the next month or so. How do you think about business centers versus regular clubs number one? And when you think about is there a big potential business center expansion here. And then lastly on expansion when you think about, is it too early to think about 2018 and we sort of get back to 30 openings worldwide next year?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Well, first of all with regard to the business centers, I think we started the year with 14 and signed up four this year so 18, that should be up by 1, and are first in Canada, we call that we had business centers for, I think we are going from four or five to seven or eight over about 10 plus years. And so we continue to be hit and news say we have found something that seems to work now and then there is a little method to that madness. And but it’s corollary to what our primary businesses is opening full Costco membership warehouses. And we were continue to open more, but I think again this is guess at this point. But on assuming the base at end of the year is 18 that should be up one using that two to seven or two to six or three to five, I mean, that will be in that range for the next couple of years. We are not looking to go from 14 to 18 to 28 in a year. And so far so good, I think a couple of years ago, we said to ourselves one day that this would be since there would be 13 or 14 weeks who knows. I remember when we said years ago one day could we have 100 Costco's in the U.S. and we are approaching 500. So it’s by no means, the same as it regular royal spot in terms of capacity a lot lower than that but I just look at more of general to the last couple of years and extrapolate that for the time being.

John Heinbockel

Analyst

Okay, and then and is it too early for next year? Can we think about...

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Surely, it's too early I mean it is I mean our goals will be to get towards that but it seems to be challenging this year and but we can work in towards that end.

John Heinbockel

Analyst

And then lastly on gross margin so if I look at ancillary ex-gas ancillaries that maybe six or seven basis points so was that anyone department to rise that and sort of how is pharmacy doing within that. And then the major categories within their own sales, so that was improved about five basis points versus last quarter. Is there anything to that or that was fairly broad based?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

I think it's more broad based than anything. I think pharmacy is fine. That was sustaining all the challenges with that industry has and we have continued to [indiscernible] putting all there. Now I don’t see if there is anything specific I think it gets more back to the call a quarter ago where we said things are okay and it's not like we have it's changed a lot but these are going to fluctuate some basis points up and down periodically.

John Heinbockel

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Hey Richard and thanks for the color on the bigger more K TVs. My serious question is first to get the lien gross profit dynamics for Q4. Can you just give us a sense relative compare. And then I'm going to have one follow-up?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Right, as everyone knows when oil prices go up we make a little less, our margins come down we make a less and when they go down we make a little more year-over-year Q3 that's where the period gas prices generally were going down that was good. But I think the direction when asked on the second quarter call which Q2 haven't been a great comparison with the other way. We didn’t think it was going to be this good but we would also did know the cash prices have been key down they have gone up lately, so we will see as we had very good profits last year in Q4 some of that has to do there is a trends down towards the end of summer prices in general ex what is going into the market but it's that's why we show every corner and because there is going to be fluctuations that are dictated by what oil prices are doing.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Got it, okay. And then my follow-up is on the credit card. Can you share with us were about I guess it's almost the year away from cycling the initial I guess the initial change over can you share with us - I know there is a few buckets of margin that we are helping some of its new sign-ups some it's the spend outside of Costco. Can you give us a sense and we lap the initial been effort from last year, what accretes - what the additive and year-over-year versus what it goes away I'm guessing that the bounty's on the new sign-ups will probably fade, but can you just share with us how we should think about it?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Well, I mean generically the biggest bang is in the first year is there a little extra - on the one hand there is little extra because things maybe there were some transition challenges right around there for few weeks okay that's good news going forward for little bit longer. But there was also more incentive and a bigger bank for your bucks and the first time you offer it you get more sign-ups in the first week and the second week than the third week as no more sign-ups being more bounty. So generally speaking, we still think it will be a net accretive if you will or additives to the company in the second year but the big bang is in the first year.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Okay, thanks.

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

And if you look at Q4, Q4 there is five or six weeks of the big bang if you will before June 20th and 10 or 11 weeks afterwards so and there is a little bit above the two-thirds of its after that anniversary.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser.

Michael Lasser

Analyst · Michael Lasser

My first question is on e-commerce growth which was in the low double-digits in the quarter. Richard are you mindful of maintaining your relevant online especially at a time when other traditional retailers are aggressively growing their e-com presence yet one of your big box competitors talk about 69% e-com growth in the most recent quarter and I believe you are 11% came on an easier comparison it sounds like it flowed throughout the period, so are you mindful of that at all?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Michael Lasser

I guess I'll use my phrase that I used several times on the last call, not to be arrogant or cavalier about it but we feel good about what we are doing, we have got great brick-and-mortar comps, we are doing things offensively in our view, not defensively on mind and we have got a lot of things going on the online side but we are not really worried about what others are doing and there is lot of good things about online and there is challenges and we are trying to do more of the good things but again we will look into the way we do it, don't expect us to increase by 69% partly through acquisition and we are going to keep doing organically, we think we have got, we made a lot of changes in the last year probably more than we had in the last several years online, and that will show some good results.

Michael Lasser

Analyst · Michael Lasser

My follow-up question is on the group core gross margin being up 20 basis points, that's on the heels of you making some investment in everyday low price in the prior quarter, so did you get the intended effect of those price investments, and is there now an opportunity to do more especially as your gross margin continues to float up?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Michael Lasser

Well I think the 12 year is 12 on the core, I have already turned that sheet to the side, but look we are going to always do more investing in price, just when you think it's safe to go outside you guys we are going to drive sales top-line and certainly the fact that our margins are strong that we have got upcoming fee increases just starting that we have got additional monies from the credit card, all of those things allow us to do things in an offensive way and drive our business and so we kind of think we can do both, have decent margins and drive our business and lower prices.

Michael Lasser

Analyst · Michael Lasser

I just follow-up on that, because you mentioned the upcoming fee increase in your response to the answering about price investments, should we expect that a good portion more than half would be - that if you get enough fee increase you are going back on the price?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Michael Lasser

Well I can’t really tell you that, but we are known for giving a lots of things back to the consumer, to remember and it's not completely formulated but we are going to constantly try to excite our members and drive our competitors crazy.

Michael Lasser

Analyst · Michael Lasser

Thank you very much and good luck.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of [indiscernible].

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Good afternoon Richard. A couple of questions here, first curious that penetration on the new Visa card as you use the tender here in the third quarter and relative to the first half of the year and also curious to where it was relative to when you had the agreement with AmEx?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Well I think we are talking in U.S. dollars because it's a U.S. program, I believe we are in 46 range currently and that's trended up since its inception a year ago, I think the highest we were on AmEx that was with AmEx co-brand, it was -- by the way but that number I'm giving you is all Visa not just Citi Visa because we accept all Visa's and we excepted all AmEx cards, not just the Costco co-brand one, I believe we have got up to the 43, 44 range, and so we have exceeded that but we wouldn't expect it to given the improved value proposition to the member, and the fact that there is just more market share out there and more places probably rewards garden to be used and again more incentive for that part to be used everywhere which helps us as well.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

And has the basket changed at all?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

I don’t know, and I know there was some anecdotal items in the very beginning at the transition on big ticket items like hearing aids or big screen TVs or furniture but I think the answer is yes it has a probably has a plus sign in front of it is so the minus but not huge and again as more anecdotal stories I have heard I didn’t heard anything big. The biggest thing in terms of the whole part is the fact the inside and outside spend, we are very successful under our own program over 14 or 16 years getting the outside spend on that card up to, to get to 2.5 plus for every dollar spend inside. And that where this issuers all of the issuers wherever the co-brand card is they want more spend on that card because that creates APR that creates carry balances and late fees and everything else, and it's just a big in portfolio. And as we would expect, given the greater market share presence that a Visa has in the market there is going to be more usage if we can get that member to have that as top of wallet there is going to be more usage on it and that's exactly what is happened. Anything that get the expectations have been little better than planning on that.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, and just switching gears a little bit Michael's question on e-commerce I think you said 11% growth. Can you just remind us where the penetration is today and also the numbers SKUs that you guys are offering online so we realize you don’t want to have the 350 million that Amazon has, but how big do you think you can grow that and then also on the margin profile the e-commerce business have you believe it's better than your brick-and-mortar margins just wondering if you could clarify that directionally?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Yes, well the sales are about little under 3.5% of sales again is the year that we are going to end up doing just extrapolating the first three quarters something in the mid-120s we had an extra weekend there to this year. And so again it's over a well over 4 billion now. And that's we don’t that's pure e-commerce online we do have delivery online, and we don’t include that we have travel online we don’t include that it's just been normal online that we started with. And I'm sorry, in terms of profitability nothing has really changed their generally speaking the gross margin of dot-com compared to the gross margin of warehouse as gas the four walls of the warehouse, the warehouse is a little higher. The SG&A on dot-com is a lot lower, so the pre-tax earnings of dot-com it is higher and nothing has really changed there.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, and just number of SKUs and if you have at the percentage overlap of those SKUs relative to what is in store?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

As we had somebody had I think there the SKU challenge ex-office supplies because that's not through a third party and there is 8,000 or 10,000 [Indiscernible] I believe, but I think we have got about 8,000 to 10,000 items and that's exclusive of like - about 2,000 of the roughly 4,000 in the warehouse are online.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, perfect. Thanks very much.

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

And I need to say fresh foods is not online other than through third-parties like Google or like Instacart or like that in Google.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Karen Short.

Karen Short

Analyst · Karen Short

Hi thanks for taking my question. I just actually trying to get a sense on the gross margin in terms of the MVM. How much was a change in the MVM from Q2 to 3Q or how much of this does year-over-year change in margin-at-margin in 2Q versus 3Q would have been a function of the end game changes and then just wondering what is the number of days on the MVM we can expect in 4Q 2017 versus 4Q 2016? And then I just got another follow-up?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Karen Short

Okay. Well, first of all in terms of the number of days, I think it's like four or less this coming year versus a year ago. Three or four? It's a few days, so not totally meaningful, I mean the big meaningful was in Q2 when it was 17 less on 84 days. And I'm sorry the other question, Karen, the first one you had asked.

Karen Short

Analyst · Karen Short

Well when we just look at how the merchandize margin in 2Q versus merchandize margin change in 3Q, I guess how much of the difference I mean sequentially was due to the MVM changes, like the pressure that you had in 2Q versus what we are looking out on 3Q?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Karen Short

I think the biggest change from Q2 year-on-year and Q3 year-on-year was the number of MVM days. we are still being pretty aggressive on the MVM being fewer items with better savings and it's plus a little more if you will that have a seat at the table there from a vendor merchandizing standpoint. But we are also [indiscernible] if we need to - we are not here just to drive margins down, we have got lot of buckets of stuff and when you have increasing kind of inflation and some higher margins areas like fresh foods or some high margins area like pharmacy, those things help as well. But there is something in little pieces that can effect it. Overall we felt pretty good about the Q3 comparison versus the Q2. But there is no material change.

Karen Short

Analyst · Karen Short

Okay. And then I guess just as obviously we are kind of getting out of a deflationary period and into flat or maybe slightly inflationary there has just been a lot of questioning as to how deflation impacted your P&L versus how inflation will impact your P&L and I guess I just want to talk through that a little because it would seems to me that deflation, because you had some much tonnage, it actually is a double set, because you have so much more labor involved in meeting the demand. So I don't know if there is any way you try to talk through a little bit on how much more easing I guess you'd have on the P&L as we are no longer in a deflationary period [indiscernible].

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Karen Short

Well I think for low margin retailers and certainly we are at the low end and the lowest end of margins, but super market is well on the food side, a little inflation is good, a little deflation hurts you a little bit it still has the D in front of it, not the IN and so it’s still impacting some. it hurts you most in items like I think the example I gave last quarter was of fresh meats where year-over-year, second quarter or first quarter year-over-year per pound beef was down by 10% and we were selling more than 10% more tonnage and certainly we are having lower gross margin dollars because of that and so as that changes that will help us a little bit.

Karen Short

Analyst · Karen Short

Well I guess presumably higher growth SG&A dollars to you because of the labor content, that's kind of where I'm getting at it, there seems like you didn’t have a lot…

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Karen Short

Actually on the fresh foods we have higher labor, inflation would help all those things.

Karen Short

Analyst · Karen Short

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Zach Fadem.

Zachary Fadem

Analyst · Zach Fadem

Hi good evening. So, Kirkland Signature continues to perform pretty well, just to what extent is this growth coming at the expense of branded items if any and when you think about positioning the brand going forward are there any areas where you think Kirkland is underpenetrated and work pursuing expansion?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Zach Fadem

Well, I'm sure of it in term of the expensive branded some of that though in some cases it's the branded manufacturers they are supplying as not always by no means not all the time and but it's another competitor and again we are pretty transparent about it we want brands and private label and so we will continue to see both of those. it really is an item business and some of the success on the - all of the big items I mean paper trails, water, giant items that are 100s of millions as dollar - we have a several items that are billion dollars in unit sales several KS items. In some cases we have a billion plus dollars on the branded side of the same time, whether it's assortment or bounty and Kirkland Signature one those two items whether it's various regional brand names of order of its Kirkland Signature order. And it works for us and we will continue to do that. Our new category, while I think in the last in the last year or two I think the thing that has done very well for us is the wine and spirits and that continues to have some legs and substantial legs and the good news like other KS items when the brands loose the market share they get sharper on their own prices which with us not only with everybody hopefully which makes it a season more competitive more on the brands. So all of that stuff works in our view will sure benefit and having the brand loyalty certainly helps with membership and wanting them to come back to Costco. Other areas our voice apparel still has legs if you will and arms I guess. You have got cosmetics organic items and there has been several organic items probably every month of the budget meeting we see new organic items whether its chicken broth or beef broth or some candy caramel chocolate things or nuts clusters and these are $10 million to $25 million whole margin items for us without competitor. In terms of it's not replacing a branded item necessarily. We have done really well in some of the other snack items and energy bar items. We have items where - if a bar I don’t need names here, but if a retail bar, retails for $2 meaning we would sell it for $1.49 we are out there sell the buck on a great item and a full margin for us and providing to some real volume and so I think apparel, cosmetics, health and beauty aids, organic food items not fresh, but packaged food items all those are areas where we continue to I think have some room to grow.

Zachary Fadem

Analyst · Zach Fadem

Okay, thanks for the color. So Richard could you - I know and nothing to beat on e-commerce so again but could you provide some early color on the Instacart and ship partnerships and is there anything notable you could call out regarding customers response or basket sizes versus an in store shop and then just going forward how should we think about potential expansion of these partnerships?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Zach Fadem

Well it's still a very small piece of our business, but it seems to be working in a sense, since that it's growing for them. We have Google Express which is operates on a five cities with several markets but they are in the process out there of offering as several items in one to three day delivery and we are participating in that with them, so that should be a positive for the program. Instacart has continued to grow dramatically, they currently operate in 40 of our cities up from 26 a year ago utilizing 240 of our warehouses from a 132 a year ago so that's growing, and then there is a few others that I mentioned [indiscernible] was one or something else. Boxed, I don't know if we are doing that, that’s [indiscernible] and look two big ones are Google Instacart and there is not a whole lot of other color, they are working; we want sell merchandizing and they help us do that, but again don't expect us to be doing anything giant and big in one [indiscernible].

Zachary Fadem

Analyst · Zach Fadem

Got it. Thanks Richard. I appreciate the Time.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Fassler.

Matthew Fassler

Analyst · Matt Fassler

Thanks a lot Richard, good afternoon. First question is a follow-up on inflation, we are seeing overall CPI start to recover, but we have seen the producer price index for PPI come back a little bit faster, are you concerned at all about any kind of gross margin squeeze s or is what you are seeing on the cost front resembling some of those macro indicators or should we just think about the fact that pricing is moving higher and general is being in that positive [indiscernible].

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Matt Fassler

Pricing move general is net positive, if anything though I think we create some of our own deflationary pressures because we are good at - look at the MVM example, greater value to the member means greater lower prices which means us and our vendor lowering the price some and most of that is driving prices down from our suppliers with the anticipation of significantly more unit volume. The good is, most of time that happens and so that's what we do, but that does drive - those things work, don't always work in concert with the immediate bottom line improvement.

Matthew Fassler

Analyst · Matt Fassler

Understood and then second question, just relates to competition. As Amazon takes 10s and billions of dollars of retail share annually and clearly the biggest share gain or by far the biggest one we have seen in a while. Are you seeing any - obviously your comps overall are increasing at a faster rate than most of the states, is there anything you are seeing in the mix that we might not catch through some of the commentary, that would suggest a change in complexion of how the consumer is really using your store, is it more consumable focused than it had been or is it kind of business as usual with no sign of change in the backdrop?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Matt Fassler

Look so far, and there is no guarantee in the future, but so far it's been business as usual. There is a number I read few months ago about how Amazon - if the entire U.S. sale, increase in sales or whatever, it was 50 billion they were half of it, well they were, 25 divided by 50 is half, but we were also up, the fact is there is others in the industry that were down 50 billion and so they were a quarter of a 100, minus 50 to plus 50. That 25 billion is still credible and formidable, but in our view we are fortunate that a lot of the impact is it's impacting some food items or even packaged food items, it's traditional food retail that is getting hit more than us. We have to keep driving our member into our warehouse and we do that with off course great prices and great items certainly fresh foods, certainly gas station and traffic, which brings them into parking lot if you will and certainly the loyalty program which they have on to, all those have been helped us and then the treasure hunt. We love it when we hear from someone that they heard that we had something, they went the next day and it wasn’t there. well we are still pretty good at all that stuff and I think again the Kirkland Signature help that as well. now so far so good. When we look at the specifics even in markets where whether those Amazon or somebody else is taking share, a lot of were there taking on fracture something, fracture is hard and even they would acknowledge and others. There will be more competition in the future, but who is going to get - we are asked a lot about legal coming into the east coast, they are going to take share, but they are going to take share from everybody else a lot more than they can take share from us. So we haven’t really seen a big change like people are buying less something at Costco because of other formats out there.

Matthew Fassler

Analyst · Matt Fassler

Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Trussell.

Paul Trussell

Analyst · Paul Trussell

Hey Richard. On SG&A we have recently cycled some labor investments made a year-ago. Could you just outline for us some other puts and takes we should keep in mind that’s is going to impact the P&L in 4Q and beyond?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Paul Trussell

I'm sorry could you repeat that.

Paul Trussell

Analyst · Paul Trussell

So on SG&A on the expense front, really just want you to help us think about some puts and takes on the expense side of things in 4Q and beyond especially since we just cycled some of the labor investments you made a year-ago?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Paul Trussell

Right, well look the biggest put and take is sales. If we can get another percentage point or two in sales that's always good and that solves a lot of things. When you look at some of the line items payroll is the next one, yes we just anniversaried some of that at the end of March that helps a little bit. Healthcare is still a challenge in the U.S. increasing penetration outside of the U.S. helps that number just by a higher a penetration within the total cost of the company and lot less everywhere else. But again that's going to happen slowly overtime in a positive way, and in some quarters the inflation the U.S. is does more than any small offset to that. IT expenditures, somebody internally said we probably get the question asked upon it is the zero year-over-year basis point or inflection point, probably not we got to be lucky. Sales were a little higher, we had lot of expenses last year leading up to the end of the fiscal year or day one of the new fiscal year when we installed the new [indiscernible] counting platform on which other things will be built and so we had a lot of third-party contracts, lot of training which you write off, you don’t capitalize and so that will get a little help there. But in fact, it will come down overtime but it's not going to be zero. I think we e-commerce helps a little bit to the extent even at 11% last quarter or 13% or 14% in the first two-thirds of the quarter before the Mothers Day and what have you that's a higher growth rate than the rest of the company. So that a much lower SG&A, so that helps you a little bit. But I think we do pretty well at trying to drive the things in a right direction, but not touching certain things, we are not going to tweak wages a little bit less or does have an increase that’s a little bit less. We don't do big things like some of those incremental things that anniversary at March like done on scale. We ended that I think in six years, but every three years we look at everything formal way. And so we are still couple of years away from looking again in terms of the big way. I still vote for a sales increase, if you get some extra sales everything else falls in place.

Paul Trussell

Analyst · Paul Trussell

And then just could you speak to Gold Star and overall household membership growth; the growth has slowed a little bit. Just how you are thinking about membership count in the U.S. and also what you are seeing on the international front?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Paul Trussell

Part of it has to do where we are spending, several of our units in the past couple of years in the U.S. for example that it's do small markets, where you don't give the biggest bang. I think we had one big bang, I gave you example of Tulsa in new market, but that's not as small as some of the markets we want to do. When we open in another Seattle unit which we have two in last couple of -- two and a half years, or in the Greater LA market, it's a great success net of cannibalization. But you don't get a few 1,000 extra members, because everybody is member couple of more frequently because 20 minutes for driving the roadmap 40. We also -- part of the growth depends on how many units we are opening overseas. When we open a new unit in Asia, as of opening date signups paid signups over the eight or 10 or 12 weeks prior and through opening day, you could have 25,000 to 40,000 new members. Iceland although there is only one location in Iceland, as of opening day we had I think over 35,000 members, over 35,000 and it's national news. And so I don't worry looking into the numbers, it's much based on where we have opened, it's not like a life opening compared to two years ago is getting fewer signups.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from Scott Mushkin.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

I just want to follow-up on the last question, just a dated question jumped into my head. Are comp memberships actually rising in U.S.?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Comp memberships…you mean comp buildings?

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

The memberships going up and….

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

I think they are but it's probably a very small number, I mean closer to zero than the number of others. And part of that is when you are opening in a, let's say when we opened in Redmond where Microsoft's headquartered, that cannibalized knowingly three locations, two of them doing in the low to mid 300s a year, and doing in the mid 200s or low 200s a year. We signed up several 1,000 new members, but not 20,000 new members. If we average roughly 62 -- if we are just adding to our membership number of households divided by number of locations, it's about 61,000 or 62,000. And next year of that opening the comp of those three locations is down because some of those members now are allocated to the new rounds.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

So the one I want to just ask about just popping in my head. So how do you think about that as your business matures in the U.S., I mean does that make you want to slow down your center growth I mean how should we frame that, it's maybe the number eventually goes negative?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Maybe it does, I don't think we are there yet. For 25 years people have asked what is your next, whatever -- what is your next fresh foods, what is your next gas station, what is your next pharmacy, what is your next geographic market. Five years ago, I don’t think any of us thought about and I am not assuming us about going into New Orleans, in Baton Rouge, in Mobile and Rochester and Toledo and Tulsa and the like. And we know by the way on average that you are going to be a little slower to take few extra years, but they still have good metrics to them. We have slowed I think using the two examples in Greater Seattle area in last 2.5 to 3 years we have opened Woodville and Redmond we waited on Redmond for 10 years to do knowing that we actually owned land in Redmond 15-20 years ago. But as we opened [indiscernible] there can be in the first one of these sides of CNE and then several years later opened Woodville, which is north of that north of Redmond, we have kept -- we actually sold the land and years ago. And finally -- so we are we try to be pragmatic about what we do. But overtime you are right we haven’t found the bottom, that's the good news. In terms of, again anecdotally, I remember years ago when we have included we needed a minimum of 0.5 million population to serve the warehouse. And then it was 450, now it is 400 and we have the very successful warehouses that you divide the number of households in the community in the population, it's in the very low 200s and if you were in the high 100s. So hopefully we will keep pacing that goal in that direction and that will give us little more life hopefully the business center create some life, and hopefully that term fee is to improve. And hopefully we find couple of more countries. So we think we have got plenty to go and so that changes we'll let you know.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

So then my follow-up question and my real question was I noticed BJs competitor of you has offerings and pretty significant discounts on their memberships. I think you get the first three months free if I am remembering the commercial correctly and $40 for the first year. How do you -- is that matter to you guys I mean you are putting a fee increase through. But a competitor in the northeast and Mid-Atlantic southeast is offering significant discounts. I just wanted to get your comments on that and then all yield? Thanks.

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Sure. And I think first if the advertise is good, we don’t advertise we don’t spend on that and we would love seeing add TV and the print adds still from both other competitors. And we are not concerned about it. We think that the value of the Costco is still as significantly higher price or without the free three months is a much better value. And we think that's evidence by our success of what we have done overtime and the fact that even what we have done in the past renewal rates have not really been impacted by it.

Operator

Operator

And your next question is from Brian Nagel.

Brian Nagel

Analyst

On the gross margin Richard it was definitely a better performance here than the prior quarter, s going back to the discussion we had on the conference call last quarter. How much of the better performance reflected I guess more stable gas price environment, was that a significant contributing factor to the gross margins this quarter?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Well, the guest helps the margins as did other ancillary business as well. But again to put me in terms the chase, the roughly 80% of our sales which is food, sundries, fresh -- food, sundries, hardlines, soft lines and fresh foods, year-over-year on their own sales they were up 12 basis points. So, it was a lot of different things.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from Scot Ciccarelli.

Scot Ciccarelli

Analyst

Two questions, number one, in terms of the e-commerce business as you guys reach a certain scale. Do you need to change your processes or do you continue to go with the drop ship philosophy?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

What relates to what, I didn't hear the first question?

Scot Ciccarelli

Analyst

Your e-commerce…

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Well, as I mentioned earlier, part of the inventory increase in the Company because we are just rejuvenated by number of warehouses, you give me a number and we'll maybe change that over time. But we had an increase in inventory for e-commerce related stuff, not at the warehouses but we went from seven to 19 distribution points in the last year. So we are getting closer to the customer, we are also working with third parties. I mentioned in the call the GE scheduling system there is other scheduling thing that we are doing. And I mentioned the thing we are testing right now in our Bedford Illinois Business Center. I mentioned last quarter where in addition to 50 or 70 mile radius where we deliver with Costco truck through third party, there is one or three day delivery to 17 states all the way to the Pennsylvania New Jersey. And so if anything I think we are getting it's getting quicker and cheaper to do these things for us. And maybe we started off high and begin with how we baked and how we did it, but we are improving.

Scot Ciccarelli

Analyst

And then second question is hopefully this is an easy calculation here. We look at the debt redemption the issuance, looks like you guys would be incurring about 25 million more a year in interest cost call it 6 million a quarter. Should that just be a pretty straight calculation or is there something else we should keep in mind as we kind of work on our model?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

I did a back of the envelop this morning and I came in with a number that's few million higher that still has two in front of it. Now it's pretty straightforward I mean you've got 3.8 billion tons somewhere between 260 and 270, call it 265 it’s a rounded number, you've to pay down of the March debt that we did, which was 60 million a year savings, you've got the call, shortly of the 1.1 billion, 108% that's on the interest expense line, a little bit of an offset will be the cash. As you know we borrowed 38, roughly 31 is the dividend, the others 700 is cash earning less than net interest rate, and even less than the one that’s coming up. But it all moves up to something like you said, if you go back to the March where we had in place the March 2017 5.5%.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Oliver Chen.

Oliver Chen

Analyst

Our question is on multi vendor mailer, how are you feeling about what you've been doing in terms of testing and learning; and that the MVM product versus the product that you are offering at every day values? It's been -- I know you are thinking about how to optimize that appropriately; so just curious about the status of that? And the second question is about the mobile app, and Amazon has a really good mobile app. So what features do you want to have in your mobile app over time that you don't have now? Thank you.

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

I want to get back to you on the latter question. Just because I don't have something here you can help me on that one. The first one, I forgot now, what was it?

Oliver Chen

Analyst

The monthly vendor mailer….

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

I think we feel good about it. I think as I have said on the last call, something as we enhanced the value and kept in the multi vendor mailer and items some of the things we took out and did everyday little pricing on; sometimes it's still better value based on and the vendor working towards that end and to have it more prominent, so there is lots of different things. It was 12 weeks ago that I said to you and many of you on the phone things are fine, there is a few things that impacted us a little more or something that didn’t work. I think we have improved on all of those things but we will continue to do that it's been only as we haven’t solve family answered everything but we feel good about what is happened in the last 12 weeks as it relate to that question.

Oliver Chen

Analyst

Richard, lastly on traffic and store traffic you've been able to do a great job on the multiyear basis with physical store traffic. What are some of the opportunities ahead or what are some of the plans you have just aim to sustain that in a sustainable healthily growing manner? And how do we or should we be more cautious because it's been still good on a multiyear basis. Just it's something we monitor and it's been impressive for you to achieve such good store traffic in a tough environment.

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Well, this is where we go all shocks. And I think we are going to keep focusing on driving value of items and identify the item that makes sense. And I mean it as many of you known us for years as we have said many times, it's the good news it's a lot of little things. Even gasoline is a lot of little things today, because it had a big help for several years in the U.S. -- in Canada for few years. We now have about a dozen plus unit at the gas stations and countries like Japan and Australia, and soon a couple of other countries. And not everywhere, but it's now a lot of its little extra thing in some of those countries. I think the wine and spirit thing has caught us off guard in a positive way that what started as a few line items a number of years ago we are actually receiving rewards on price points that are nobody can match and the trust to the brand. On the spirit side, we never thought we would be successful, and it's a double positive because it's not only selling us the full margin private label item but it's creditors the brands don’t like losing market share to us and they want to get look better on pricing at Costco, so all those things had helped us. I think the apparel area as I have mentioned has been something we hadn’t thought about it. But over the last two or three years, it's a $5 plus billion business that's been growing at 9% compound it's 3.5 years. And that has more lives even though retail apparel was weak. And so we will keep coming up with stuff. I think the first trend that our traffic went from a boring 4.2 compound for seven calendar years '09 through '15 and then it hit 38, 35, 33, 28 and everybody is saying Bob and I others were the first to say, this could very well be the durable not just punch on it but 4.2 is pretty hard to do. With that being said we feel really -- where we got some things for traffic drivers and fresh food still has legs, JS still has legs, gasoline still has legs executive membership so the credit card extra value. So we feel pretty good about -- that's in a way or not quantitative answer but all things are relatively sorted.

Oliver Chen

Analyst

Richard, you have very talented merchant. Did Amazon is trying to hire them is that something that comes up in terms of that capability being such a competitive advantage?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

I would hope not. To my knowledge, we lost one or two merchants but not in the last few years. We lose a few IT engineers several of whom 18 months of the date call us back after they hit their [indiscernible]. But that's everywhere I mean look Amazon is in our town and they hire a lot of people from every company in town and out of town. We have been fortunate, people have chosen to stick around but the answer is no, we haven't. But we cross our fingers to you in the future.

Operator

Operator

And the next question is from Kelly Bania.

Kelly Bania

Analyst

Just another one with e-commerce, I think you mentioned that you've expanded some KS items online. Just wondering if you could elaborate what categories those are. And really just what is the pricing strategy with online versus in-store for those items that I think you said 2,000 items that crossover. I mean should we expect prices are the same or is there a difference in pricing strategy online versus in the club? Thanks.

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Sometimes online they don't hire for delivery, sometimes as we tried some, what call them velocity apparel items, stocks and shirts and things. We need to some of that ourselves in terms of shipping as we want to get people comfortable ordering velocity items, whether its apparel or health and beauty aids or sundries like Jacobs. And unfortunately, I don't have the list in front of me and some of the new items with several KS items, but other brands as well. And again give me a call after the holiday -- I just don't have that information with me.

Kelly Bania

Analyst

And then can I just ask one more just clarification on gross margin. I think when you talked about the core gross margin the up 7 up 20 with and without gas that includes the 16 basis points from the Citi Visa but the up 12 the 80 basis or the 80% of the core business, up 12, that excludes the Citi Visa. Is that correct?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

That’s correct, yes.

Operator

Operator

And your next question is from Peter Benedict.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Richard, just a couple of quick ones, MFI trends, some underlying slowing there I mean is that just a friction from the new card changeovers or are you seeing anything in terms of signups that's concerning you?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

The biggest issue is re-openings in the quarter, actually two net openings. One was there so no, nothing that's terribly -- that's concerning. Nothing that is dis-concerning, I shouldn't have used the word terribly.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Second question, the lift in comp that you've seen over the last several months recovering comp trends; has there been anything in terms of business members versus Gold Star, anything like that that has kind of disproportionately driven that?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

No, not really.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

And then my last question is just around the e-commerce fulfillment centers, just get 19 of those. Where do you see that number going in the next few years? And then could the clubs actually be used for that whether you said 2,000 items that are in the clubs that are also offered online, can the clubs to be used to sell that delivery of those?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

First of all, going from 7 to 19 has a lot. And again, we are more than saving on that because we are getting the stuff to you quicker. We are spending less on freight we did it somewhat inefficiently to start with. There’ll be more -- I don’t that's I don’t know if -- I just know what those few data points for 7 and 19. The other question was where we ever use the warehouses fulfillment centers, yes sure. And I'm saying that not suggesting it's going to happen tomorrow. And one of the things we are doing with the Bedford, Illinois Business Center in a way is e-commerce related, you order online and it will be deliver in one to three days via third party carrier; certain items, I mean I think the items have certain weight and size limitations we are not to be delivering sofas to New Jersey from there. But probably we will be delivering that but using the business centers like using a warehouse and different set of items, but it was easy to do because it will set up at some ways to accommodate it fat. And we’ll see, but it's logical to think that would you have some of allocations around the country that could do some things at night when they closed or a low volume unit that could help out. But we haven’t -- don’t expect anything on that front for at least the next year, and I would always suggesting to next year that this we haven’t really talked about and a lot of other than could we.

Operator

Operator

And your next question is from Greg Melich.

Greg Melich

Analyst

Richard, could you fill us in on what gas was the percentage of sales. And I think you said the gallons comp positive and if you have the number that would be great. And I have follow-up?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

It was okay we are almost there.

Greg Melich

Analyst

Should I go with the next question?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Yes.

Greg Melich

Analyst

Okay, so the other question I just want to make sure I get the timing of Visa fitting and how that came in last year. So it is the 36 bps of help to the EBIT margin, if I get this right. And in the fourth quarter, we should probably get another four or five weeks of that benefit. Am I thinking about that right or is there some other thing at work, if I remember correctly, as you are running out the Amex program you were not signing up people and not getting the payments for signing up people for the card? Or is it just the straight forward think about that got a few more weeks of the benefit cycles?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

I think it's like six weeks, not just three or four but then you get -- there was 220 that we have some disruption around it. We are also conservative on some of the assumptions. I mean look it’s not going to be nearly as it was in the last three quarters, but it's not going to be a quarter is the only of quarters base. In terms of the gallon comps, it's a very strong number. It has two digits but not -- is very low two digits, so I can't tell you anything.

Greg Melich

Analyst

Low single digits, and gas a percentage of total company sales?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Yes, hold on a second…

Greg Melich

Analyst

And maybe why you are digging that out, since I got -- the membership fee growth in local currencies, how much effect that line?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

First of all gas is a little under 10% and the other one was membership fees, that was in my -- membership fees reported was up 4% in dollars, or $26 million and 5% without FX. FX was a $3.6 million hit to the number. FX should have been flatter -- the number would have been $3.6 million higher.

Operator

Operator

And your next question is from Edward Kelly.

Edward Kelly

Analyst

Richard, just a couple of quick one for you entail on here, on the gross margin in Q4. Is there any extra leverage from the extra week in Q4 that we should expect, that's meaningful at all?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Nothing. The margin very little on the expense side almost nothing.

Edward Kelly

Analyst

And then on just a follow-up on fresh food, just provide maybe more color on what is tied up here in terms of things you've been talking about, particularly in organics. And is there any kind of step change or just continuation of what you've been doing?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Global store sales -- being the largest purveyor of USDA prime beef in the universe and we are now -- in the U.S. we are something like a third of all U.S. prime beef sales. Before ’08, vast majority of all prime beef sales went to restaurants and hotels.

Edward Kelly

Analyst

And how are you doing on capacity and some items in produce from an organic standpoint that maybe you struck a little bit in the past?

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

I think, overall, and not just us but everybody has benefitted in fact there is more supply out there. I think we feel competitively from a standpoint that we are well positioned because I think we have used the number on produce. We source produce from 44 countries, nobody does that and that gives us some additional advantage in that area. But it's gotten less hard but it's still organic as -- there is more demand than there is supply. But if I look at the price points of organic versus conventional, on most items, the premium is still a premium but not as big a premium that it was two years ago because of the fact that there is less of a supply demand imbalance.

Operator

Operator

And there're no further questions.

Richard Galanti

Analyst · Simeon Gutman

Well, thank you everyone. Have a good afternoon, and holiday.

Operator

Operator

And this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.