Kristen Ankerbrandt
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
Thank you, Greg. Our second quarter revenue was $2 billion, up 4% compared to Q2 2021 and our highest quarter to date. Our adjusted EBITDA was a positive $4 million, down from a positive $71 million in Q2 2021. Our revenue growth was affected by the market slowdowns in some of our key markets. For example, California, which includes two of our top markets, has seen more transaction decline compared to the national average, and as a result, put more pressure on our top line. Despite this pressure, we still saw an increase in our LTM market share. Our second quarter transactions grew 2% to just under 67,000 compared to a 10% decline in NAR transactions during the quarter. In Q2, our gross transaction volume was $77 billion, in line with the prior year period. The 2% increase in transactions was offset by a 2% decline in our average transaction value. Excluding California, our GTV grew 17% year-over-year in Q2. Transactions per average principal agent were 5.2 in the quarter, down from 6.2 transactions in Q2 2021. It's important to remember that we are comparing against one of the strongest quarters in the history of real estate in Q2 2021, and our strongest quarter ever for this metric. 5.2 transactions per average principal agent is still one of our strongest quarters. Despite the declines we've seen in the market, our transactions per average principal agent increased from 12.5 in 2019 to 18.9 in the LTM Q2 2022 period. Turning to expenses. Our higher Q2 expense base was driven by the annualization of key investments we made in 2021 to drive long-term profitable growth. These included progress to achieve completion of the Compass platform, launching 27 new markets since the beginning of 2021 and scaling our adjacent services businesses. Our non-GAAP commissions and other as a percentage of revenue was 81.5% in Q2 2022, up from 80.9% in the prior year period. This year-over-year increase was driven primarily by reduced participation in the 2022 agent equity program relative to 2021. Excluding the impact of reduced AEP participation, we saw an improvement in the underlying brokerage economics of the business. Now as we told you on our May 12 call, in the second quarter, we paused all expansion into new markets and discontinued M&A activity. In June, as market conditions continue to weaken, we initiated a cost reduction plan to better align our operating expenses with our lower revenue expectations. This started with a 10% reduction in our employee workforce as well as other cost reduction measures. During the second quarter of 2022, we incurred a GAAP net loss of $101 million compared to a net loss of $7 million in Q2 2021. Included in the GAAP net loss was stock-based compensation expense of $59 million in Q2 2022 compared to $54 million in Q2 2021, also included with a $19 million restructuring charge as a result of the June cost savings actions. We also incurred $6 million of additional depreciation and amortization expense for the noncash write-off of intangible assets associated with the Motus shutdown and the noncash write-off of the remaining fixed assets associated with Motus leases and other leases exited during Q2. We had $431 million of cash and cash equivalents on our balance sheet as of the end of June. When you incorporate our planned OpEx reductions, we do not currently see the need for additional capital to fund our current business plan. As Robert and Greg mentioned, we intend to bring down our non-GAAP operating expenses after commissions and other expenses to $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion as we exit 2022. At the midpoint, this would result in a reduction of nearly $320 million from our LTM Q2 2022 levels of approximately $1.42 billion. Please see the schedule on Page 7 of the investor deck for more information. While interest rates and broader equity market performance are not within our control, we focus on the metrics that we can control to measure the health of our business. These metrics are market share gains, agent acquisition and agent retention, and these metrics remain strong. In Q2, we increased our national market share by 50 basis points on an LTM basis compared to the prior year. Note that this market share calculation is based on NAR's revised methodology, which is detailed in our earnings release. In Q2, we also added 405 average principal agents, representing 22% growth year-over-year. And in Q2, we continued to retain our principal agents at our industry-leading rates of over 90%. Now let me turn to our Q3 2022 and full year 2022 outlook. Given the market uncertainty, we are lowering our outlook for the full year 2022 to $6.15 billion to $6. 45 billion, which represents revenue growth of negative 4% to positive 0.5% for the full year. Our market assumption for this range is a full year 2022 decline of 9% to 13%, and this incorporates an assumed market decline for the second half of 2022 of 16% to 25%. We are approaching the remainder of 2022 with caution. We believe it is prudent to be conservative, particularly as we look to bring down our operating expenses to better align our spending with our updated revenue outlook. We are focused on effectively managing our cash position. Our full year revenue outlook is down from our prior outlook of $7.6 billion to $8 billion in Q1, which had assumed market growth of between 1% and 7%. Our current outlook for the full year 2022 adjusted EBITDA is now a loss of $225 million to $150 million, down from at least breakeven. Turning to our third quarter 2022 guidance. We expect revenue of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $85 million to $60 million. This range reflects the impact of macro challenges we have seen in May and June, most significantly peak mortgage rates and stock market declines, which we generally see impacting our business 30 to 60 days out. Lastly, we remain confident in our long-term adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow margin targets of 10% and 8% to 9%, respectively. However, the time frame required to achieve these targets could extend beyond 2025, depending on the depth and duration of this market downturn. For clarity, we are suspending our $1.2 billion adjusted EBITDA target for 2025. Despite market challenges in the second half of 2022, we believe we can continue to grow our principal agent base, increase our market share and effectively manage the cost structure to better align it with our updated revenue outlook. This will allow us to position ourselves to be free cash flow positive in 2023 in a variety of market conditions. With that, let me turn the call back to the operator to start the Q&A portion of the call.