Tim Boyle
Analyst · Guggenheim Securities. Please proceed with your question
Thank you Peter. I just want to ask for some indulgence today, it looks like everybody in the Company here has a cold including myself. So it is going around and if I pause from time to time I apologize. We are pleased to report better than expected third quarter and year to-date results and to essentially reiterate my full-year earnings outlook, which now incorporates anticipated full year costs of Project CONNECT. We believe our sustained performance, illustrates the strength of our team and of the global multi-brand, multi-channel business model that we’ve built. Utilizing our powerful balance sheet to make investments that enable us to adapt as the major markets evolve. The structural shifts that continue to alter the U.S. wholesale landscape are a meaningful headwind that drove a low double-digit decline in our U.S. wholesale sales for the first quarter and a high single-digit decline through the first nine months. Nearly half of that year-to-date decline is the direct result of an expected timing shift of U.S. wholesale deliveries from September into October with the vast majority of the remainder reflecting wholesale customers bankruptcies and store closures. Adjusting for the timing shift, third quarter USA sales would have declined only 5% rather than the reported 12% decline. And the U.S. region would have been essentially flat compared with last year's third quarter. As we anticipated at the beginning of the year, our U.S. direct-to-consumer business has helped to offset some of the wholesale decline posting low-double digit sales growth in the quarter and high-single-digit growth year to-date. Third quarter U.S. DTC growth was a combination of comp store growth in contribution from new stores and high-single digit growth in e-commerce. Despite the disruptive dynamics in the U.S. wholesale markets and setting aside costs associated with Project CONNECT we improved our operating margin through the first nine months by 20 basis points and our 2017 outlook also excluding Project CONNECT costs anticipated 10 basis point improvement. As you look across the rest of our business beyond the U.S. wholesale channel, you’ll see that we generated sales growth and improved profitability in every other region in the third quarter and that the same holds true on a year-to-date basis with the exception of Korea where our year to-date sales are essentially equal to last year. Our EMEA region has led the way with constant currency sales up 15% in the quarter and 14% year to-date. Our European wholesale and direct-to-consumer businesses posted a high teen, constant currency growth rate for the quarter and year to-date led by broad based Columbia brand growth across product categories, customers and countries as well as a 30% growth from the SOREL Brand. In addition the independent distributor portion of our EMEA region contributed low double-digit growth in the third quarter and there's the high-single digits year to-date on the continued improvement in the Russian market. More importantly after achieving breakeven profitability in 2016, we now expect our European wholesale and direct-to-consumer businesses to be profitable in 2017. Our team in Europe has done an outstanding job over the past three years improving the profitability of our business there. We have plenty of untapped market potential and the existing infrastructure to drive continued growth and expand profitability in the years ahead in that very important market. In June, we asked the architect of our European turnaround Franco Fogliato to relocate to Portland to support the increased focus on our U.S. and Canadian markets and promoted Mattieu Schegg to serve as European GM to continue driving our momentum in Europe. Our Latin America and Asia Pacific region pushed into high-single-digit growth in the quarter and is up mid-single-digits year to-date. Sales to LAAP Distributors grew more than 30% in the quarter benefiting from a favorable shift in the timing of shipments and increased advanced fall season orders. Sales to LAAP Distributors are also up by more that 30% year to-date. Our China joint venture posted high-single digit growth on the strength of its digital wholesale and owned e-commerce channels. While Korea produced mid-teens growth by adding new wholesale customers to help accelerate its continued inventory reduction efforts. In Japan, a mid-single digit constant currency increase translated into a low single digit decline in U.S. dollars. To complete this quick trip around the globe, Canada contributed high single-digit growth driven by the Colombia and SOREL Brands largely due to a favorable timing shift in wholesale shipments. Third quarter and year to-date gross margins improved to 46.7% and on the spending front, excluding the strategic $8.6 million year-to-date expenses of Project CONNECT diligent expense management by our global team, sales year-to-date SG&A growth in line with the rate of year to-date sales growth. Our balance sheet remains extremely strong with $430 million in cash and zero long-term debt. Clearly, we have reason to be confident in our portfolio of brands, our global multi-brand, multi-channel business model, our strong balance sheet and in our ability to prioritize and allocate capital towards profitable growth opportunities. Our confidence and that of our board, is also reflected in the 6% dividend increase we announced today, marking our fifth consecutive year of dividend increases and the tenth increase since we introduced the dividend 12 years ago. Looking, at how each of our brands are positioned for the fourth quarter, we continue to believe that the Columbia brand is gaining U.S. wholesale market share in this challenging environment. And that wholesale channel inventories are generally healthy as we await the arrival of seasonal weather in the holiday shopping season. Over the past year, our Colombia brand team has installed more than 150 new Columbia shop-in-shops and elevated brand presentations at key partner stores around the world with plans to nearly double that number by the end of 2017. Our investment in this rollout reflects our commitment to enhance the consumer's experience within our global wholesale channels and also speaks to the confidence that our customer have in us as one of their most reliable partners and in the Columbia brand as one of their most consistent performers. The Columbia brands tested Tough brand marketing platform, continues to drive a unified global message about enabling consumers to enjoy the outdoors longer. The second year of our successful directors of toughness program includes this month after driving hundreds of millions of consumer impressions on social media channels. This fall, we’ll launch a new seasonal campaign titled Columbia Warm that sits on top of our existing tested Tough brand platform. It will expose consumers to a consistent global story across TV, digital, print, out-of-home, e-mail and in social and it will include new micro-campaigns across digital channels that will be updated regularly to maintain an always-on marketing presence. This effort kicked up in September where the campaign focused on our partnership in outfitting deal with the UK National Park System and was followed by a content marketing partnership, featuring actor and celebrity, Zac Efron and his brother Dylan that has already driven over 400 million impressions. For the full year, we expect the Columbia brand to contribute low single-digit global growth with increases in our U.S. DTC channel in every international region offsetting our anticipated decline in U.S. wholesale. Our SOREL brand team is very excited about what they have lined up for this fall season. Next week, SOREL’s 4,000 pair limited boot collaboration with renowned Paris based luxury design house Chloé launches a 14 million of Chloé's premium global wholesale partners including Nordstrom [indiscernible] Barneys and Holt Renfrew. The boot which will retail for more than $500 will also be available in Chloé retail stores in major markets around the world and on chloe.com This collaboration is a perfect fit with SOREL’s fashion-forward female consumers and is already gaining – garnering traction with global fashion press. SOREL’s complete new fall 2017 line is in stores has been supported by the brands new defined marketing campaign that reinforces SOREL’s position as the most fashionable brand in outdoor and the most outdoor brand in fashion. The campaign is anchored by a street-level window executions across New York have some of SOREL’s most visible and influential partner stores as well as by extensive social media campaign that features eight up and coming fashion influencers who are helping to extend our communications around SOREL’s fall product line. We expect SOREL will contribute high single-digit growth for the full year led by the U.S., Europe and Canada. At prAna, during the third quarter we promoted Russ Hopcus, Columbia’s former SVP of North America sales to prAna brand President. I'm confident in his and his team's ability to magnify prAna’s message of sustainability and healthy active free-spirited lifestyle to drive growth. Early fall sell through at key wholesale customers has been strong led by yoga and swim categories. Our updated 2017 outlook anticipates low single-digit growth for prAna as it overcomes headwinds caused by the U.S. wholesale market disruptions. At Mountain Hardwear, new brand President, Joe Vernachio continues to build out a new product team that is working to create a compelling high performance product lineup. Mountain Hardwear’s innovative Stretch Down products are performing well at retail. Our full year outlook anticipates a low single-digit percentage sales decline from Mountain Hardwear. Our updated consolidated 2017 outlook anticipates gross margins up about 20 basis points from 2016 and that inventory levels will be consistent with anticipated full year 2017 net sales growth. We also anticipate about 80 basis points of SG&A deleverage, which includes 60 basis points of deleverage related to be anticipated full year costs of Project CONNECT. In summary, we're pleased with our solid year-to-date performance and how we have positioned ourselves for the remainder of 2017. It’s from this position of strength and confidence that we are moving steadily forward on Project CONNECT, which I described during our July conference call. As a quick refresher and for those who are new to the story, Project CONNECT is a comprehensive assessment of our business model and identification of strategic organizational and operational initiatives to accelerate execution against our strategic plan and to drive profitable growth. Wants the realignment of our organization around a brand led consumer-first philosophy. Project CONNECT teams have been identifying initiatives to accelerate our performance against the company's four strategic priorities, which are drive brand awareness and sales growth in our wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels through increased focused demand creation investment. Enhanced consumer experience in digital capabilities across all channels. Expand and improved global direct-to-consumer channels with supporting processes and systems. Invest in our people and optimize our organization across our portfolio of brands. To give you a sense of its comprehensive scope, Project CONNECT includes initiatives to drive revenue, capture cost of sales efficiencies, generate SG&A savings and improve our marketing effectiveness. A few of these initiatives have shorter lead times and will be among the first to be implemented, examples would be initiatives in the area of e-commerce optimization, indirect procurement, marketing effectiveness and refining the promotional cadence in our DTC channels. Other initiatives generally entailed longer lead times, particularly those pertaining to product creation such as assortment optimization and intensifying our emphasis on designing products with the features and functions that consumers value most. Meaning that some of these may take us till 2020 or beyond to fully implement and realize the benefits. As we move forward with implementations, our intent is to redirect a significant portion of any realized tangible benefits towards incremental demand creation behind each of our brands in order to drive growth. We will also invest in other initiatives that contribute to profitable sales growth both margin expansion and SG&A efficiency and then enhance our strategic global operational capabilities. We plan to incorporate those initial anticipated benefits and resource allocations in our 2018 financial outlook that we will share in early February in conjunction with our fourth quarter and full year financial results. For now I want to reinforce how committed we are to Project CONNECT and how confident we are that there are significant opportunities for us to transform our business, increase our growth driving demand creation investments, expand our operational capabilities and further improve our profitability. Before we move to your questions, I want to provide a little color about what we're seeing as we look into the first half of 2018. In September, we wrapped up our spring advance order thinking process with our global wholesale partners. Although, we no longer report specific backlog figures and are not prepared to provide a full outlook for 2018. I want to share that based on the visibility we have today, we're optimistic that we will continue to generate global growth and then our U.S. wholesale business will return to growth in the first half of 2018. We believe that the combination of our global multi-brand multichannel business, our sound strategic plan and our teammates around the world form a solid foundation that will enable us to grow, expand our profitability, and increase our total return to shareholders in the years ahead. Okay, find out more detail on our Q3 and year-to-date results and our updated 2017 outlook in Jim, CFO commentary available on our website. That concludes my prepared remarks. We welcome your questions for the remainder of the hour.