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Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 29, 2015

$61.07

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Columbia Sportswear Third Quarter 2015 Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Ron Parham, Senior Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. Thank you, Mr. Parham. You may begin. Ron Parham - Senior Director-Investor Relations & Corporate Communications: All right. Thanks, Bob. Good afternoon and thanks everyone for joining us today to discuss Columbia Sportswear Company's third quarter and year-to-date financial results and our upward revised 2015 financial outlook that we announced earlier this afternoon. Shortly after our earnings release crossed the wire, we furnished an 8-K containing a detailed CFO commentary with further analysis of the results and an explanation of the assumptions behind our 2015 outlook. The CFO commentary is also available on our Investor Relations website. With me today on the call are Chairman of the Board, Gert Boyle; Chief Executive Officer, Tim Boyle; President and Chief Operating Officer, Bryan Timm; Executive Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer, Tom Cusick; and Executive Vice President, Chief Administrative Officer and General Counsel, Peter Bragdon. I'll ask Gert to cover the safe harbor language.

Gertrude Boyle - Chairman

Management

Good afternoon. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements regarding Columbia business – Columbia's business opportunities and anticipated results of operation. Please bear in mind that this forward-looking information is subject to many risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially from what is projected. Many of these risks and uncertainties are described in Columbia's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ending December 31, 2014, and subsequent filings with the SEC. Forward-looking statements in this conference call are based on our current expectations and beliefs, and we do not undertake any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements after the date of this conference call to confirm the forward-looking statement, actual results, or the change in our expectations. Ron Parham - Senior Director-Investor Relations & Corporate Communications: Thank you, Gert. And before I turn the call over to Tim, I'd also like to point out that, during the call, we will reference constant currency net sales growth, which is a non-GAAP financial measure. We provide a reconciliation of constant currency net sales to net sales as reported under U.S. GAAP, and an explanation of management's rationale for including this non-GAAP measure in the supplement financial tables that accompany our earnings release, a copy of which is available on our website at investor.columbia.com. Now, I'll turn the call over to Tim. Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Thanks, Ron. Welcome, everyone and thanks for joining us this afternoon. We're extremely proud of how well our global teams are executing against our stated initiatives to drive growth, increase demand-creation investments, and improve profitability. As a result, we delivered another phenomenal quarter as 2015 continued to unfold even better than we anticipated. Outstanding growth in the Columbia, SOREL and prAna brands led the way in…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question-and-answer session Our first question comes from the line of Bob Drbul with Nomura Securities International. Please proceed with your question.

Bob S. Drbul - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Good afternoon. Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Hey, Bob.

Bob S. Drbul - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

Hi, Tim. I guess I just have a couple of questions. Can you talk about how the direct-to-consumer business comps are performed during some of the warmer weather in September, any insights into October? And I guess can you talk about how your wholesale retail partners are handling the warmer weather in the outerwear categories, what you're seeing from them and what you think about the inventories in the channel right now? Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Certainly. Well, as you know, we don't report the way a typical retailer would in terms of the comp results on our own direct-to-consumer business. But we're – on our plan and I believe that our results for Q4 are going to reflect the plans that we've laid out and we expect to happen for the balance of the year – it's been an important part of our business, especially in North America and we're pleased with the results. As it relates to the wholesale channel, we've had – we, as you know, have visibility to our retail customers' sell-through and we've got a lot more inventory in the channel, but our results are equal really with last year in terms of the sell-through. So, we're pleased with where we are in our business. The results we've seen from competitors would imply that we're taking market share, so I don't really know how much other brands' products would exist in our stores, but as it relates to our products, we're comfortable with our position.

Bob S. Drbul - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

And can you just comment a little bit on SOREL's growth and the performance and the expectation, what you're seeing out there both for its performance and I guess the competition in that category? Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Certainly. Well, the brand is well-known as a winter footwear brand, but frankly the most gratifying thing has been the results of the sales of the – what we are describing internally and to investors as fall merchandise. So, the wedges in those products which don't require snow on the ground to sell have really been spectacular. And the product essentially, for all intents and purposes, sold out last year. So, there was a lot of pent-up demand from consumers who couldn't buy the product last year. So, early sales have been good. As you know, the footwear business can be explosive and we've been diligent in managing preseason orders from customers so that we don't have an issue, and I think we've managed that properly. So, we're happy with how the business is progressing there.

Bob S. Drbul - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

And then, I just have a question for Tom. When we look – so, currencies, a $0.14 hit this year. I know you're not giving 2016 guidance, but can you just give us an early read in terms of what we should expect on foreign exchange as we look forward into the next fiscal year? Thomas B. Cusick - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President-Finance: Yeah. Bob, I would say, if we were to lock in today – at today's rates relative to next year, obviously currency would be a headwind and mostly on the gross margin line, but with that being said, I would say, in 2014 and 2015 each, currency has been about a 50 basis point headwind. We still have been able to expand gross margin. So, that's kind of how we see it today.

Bob S. Drbul - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much. Good luck. Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Thanks, Bob.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Komp with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question. Jonathan R. Komp - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Thank you very much. Just two questions from me. Maybe, Tim, first, I just want to kind of be clear and if you could clarify it, I noticed the full-year revenue projection for the U.S. looks slightly lower than it was last time, low-to-mid-20% growth versus a mid-20% number last time, understanding both of those numbers are very strong. Could you maybe just give any more commentary or just make it clear why that change was made? Thomas B. Cusick - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President-Finance: Yeah. This is Tom. I think that's really – it's a 1 percentage point delta one way or the other and we felt compelled to provide a range there. So, really no meaningful change in the U.S. outlook for the full year. Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: You really should look at the results from a first-half, back-half point of view and that's – the deliveries can move around from quarter-to-quarter, but really we're talking about business in the second half, which has been significant, and growth has been good. Jonathan R. Komp - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Great. That's helpful. And maybe a bigger picture question really on the demand creation side, and this is more looking over the next several years. I know you've gradually been increasing the spend as a percentage of revenue, and some of the recent work with the Tested Tough campaign looks pretty encouraging. So, I'm wondering if you could just provide a little bit more of a longer-term roadmap on how you see the demand…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Camilo Lyon with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

Pallav Saini - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, this is Pallav, standing on for Camilo. Thank you for taking my questions. My first question is on the inventory. So, your guidance is implying a 3% – a low-single-digit growth in sales in the last quarter, but your inventory is up about 10%. Can you give us a little more detail on the composition of the inventory? Are you expecting to ship more wholesale orders, is that a part of it? Any color there would be helpful. Thomas B. Cusick - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President-Finance: Yeah. I would say, the vast majority of our inventory growth is comprised of that inventory that sits in North America and to a lesser degree Europe, where we've put up the highest growth rates year-to-date and we expect to through the full year. So, we feel like inventory is in really good shape. In fact, Korea, which has been our most challenged region, that inventory comped down 26% year-over-year. And that's in constant currency terms.

Pallav Saini - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

Got it. Thank you. And my second question is on the – so, you had some advanced wholesale orders this quarter. At what point – if the weather doesn't turn and if the sell-throughs, let's say, are slower than expected, at what point do you start to see any cancellation or slowdown in any re-order business during the season? Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Okay. So, the – we run the business on a future basis. So these advance orders were given to us sometime between November and March of last year – November of last year, March of this year. And we've shipped the bulk of them, and again we receive cancellations and re-orders every day. So the guidance we've given today really contemplates what we believe will happen as it relates to both of those new orders and cancellations.

Pallav Saini - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Lindsay Drucker Mann with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question. Lindsay Beth Drucker Mann - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thanks. Hi, everyone. Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Hey, how are you, Lindsay? Lindsay Beth Drucker Mann - Goldman Sachs & Co.: There's been some concerns raised by a couple of peers and other industry participants just about the state of the industry, inventory situation, maybe some deceleration in business, heading into October. Obviously your numbers are very strong. I was just hoping you could share some of your perspective on what you're seeing from a – as far as the bigger picture is concerned. Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Well, I'm actually quite optimistic about the business frankly. And I don't really see the deceleration. We end up in this sort of quasi-panic situation in October frequently when it's not minus 20 degrees as people expect. I really can't comment about our competitors. I can tell you our position, we believe, is strong and expanding. And you have to remember, the results that we're showing today, our business has been under pressure over the last several years and we've been working diligently to improve through a number of different factors including better product, more marketing, et cetera. And so I think our results are frankly the results of an improved business and may not reflect – be reflective of the industry in total. But again, as it relates to the industry, I'm frankly quite encouraged. Lindsay Beth Drucker Mann - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thanks. And I know that you're not giving 2016 guidance, but in prior third quarter updates, you had some visibility or – and actually in…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Kernan with Cowen. Please proceed with your question. John Kernan - Cowen & Co. LLC: Hey guys. Congrats on a fantastic quarter, and thanks for taking my question. Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Thanks, John. Thomas B. Cusick - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President-Finance: Thank you. John Kernan - Cowen & Co. LLC: Going back to that European theme, when do you think some of the supply chain initiatives that you put in place and seen so much success on in the United States can start to translate over into improved international profitability? Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Yeah. I think we're seeing the results frankly in the increased profitability in Europe with some of our supply chain initiatives even though we haven't put the final touches on it, and the final touch is being described as installation of the SAP system into that market. But much of the learnings and the advances that we have in the supply chain and focus here has been – has resulted in improved business in Europe. We're not all the way there yet, but frankly, we're much of the way there just based on our current investments. John Kernan - Cowen & Co. LLC: Okay. Thanks. And just – you've got a pretty consistent history of beating the guidance you put out the past several years. Where do you think you're most conservative on the outlook for the fourth quarter? Thomas B. Cusick - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President-Finance: Boy. This is Tom. That one is a tough one to ask – I mean, to answer. When we look at what we're comping against, 25% organic growth in the U.S., 15% organic growth globally, we kind of have the perfect storm weather-wise in the fourth quarter of last year. So the comps are quite difficult. We plan the business for a normal winter. So if winter is like it was a year ago, the results will be better. So I guess we plan it as down the middle as we can and I think that's what you see in the guidance today. John Kernan - Cowen & Co. LLC: Okay. That's all I have. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Susan Anderson with FBR. Please proceed with your question. Susan K. Anderson - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Good evening. Congrats on a good quarter. Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Thank you. Susan K. Anderson - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: I was wondering if you could talk about, it seems like you guys did a really good job on just offering more transitional products in the stores for early fall, which it seems like sold very well. Maybe if you could talk about just any difference this year versus last year? And then also if you could talk about just the difference in performance between the heavier outerwear and the lighter outerwear? Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Certainly. Well, I think in total, you have to remember that the company's product range is quite broad. So it goes all the way from lightweight shirts which were designed for years in tropical climates and arguably in Houston, Texas it's tropical all-year-round. So we've had great success in the Southern part of United States and in Central America and South America. And then, we have had good success with our lighter-weight garments, insulated garments, but we've also good success with our heavily insulated garments. And we – I think a big portion of that success was the fact that we placed the merchandize in stores earlier. Early in the year, we can gain maybe a couple of, up to 3 percentage point of sell-through, even in a month as early as August or July, based on having the merchandize in the store, and frankly for our retailers it's just the most profitable sales period, when there is no discounting and actually…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rafe Jadrosich with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Rafe Jason Jadrosich - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: You bet.

Rafe Jason Jadrosich - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Can you just give a little more color on sort of why the retailers are taking shipments earlier? Is that something being driven from your end or do the retailers want the product flow to them earlier? And then is that also more transitional product and that's why they're taking it earlier? Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: No, I think again, we want to make sure that investors view the back half of the business cycle as opposed to any particular quarter. We've continued to improve our logistics and delivery performance. So that we're delivering when retailers want it; in the past, we perhaps delivered three or four days later than what they wanted to start. So we're really talking about just a few days' difference – as well as those retailers, as I said, who want to get the most profitable advance order – excuse me, the most profitable sales period, which sometimes can be quite early in the year, in the summer. So, we really didn't do anything differently this year, other than to focus on delivering the products when retailers wanted them on an exactly timely basis. So, that – but you really should look at the business from a first-half, second-half basis, especially as it relates to the outerwear business.

Rafe Jason Jadrosich - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, got it. And then, looks like SOREL is performing really well, but I think Columbia Footwear is also growing, can you talk about some of the key drivers there? Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Certainly. Well we have a couple of – as it relates to the Columbia Footwear business, we have a couple of very strong winter items, especially the Minx product, which has been really leading the charge on our winter product, but more importantly, we've had really high quality global sales of the company's trail footwear products. So, that's been one of the most gratifying improvements in the footwear business for Columbia, because it's a non-weather-sensitive business. As it relates to SOREL, again, well-known as a winter-footwear brand, protective, and we've been transitioning to a real fashion business founded in the protection space, but really the fall business has been quite exceptional there, especially these wedges which have sold very, very well for us. So, we're pleased with the business. Obviously, as Tom said, we'll have a better performance than expected if we have an exceptionally cold winter, but we believe that we've given our best look at a complex business, and what the outcomes will be for the fourth quarter.

Rafe Jason Jadrosich - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

And then just last question from me, in terms of South Korea and Russia, two businesses that have been under a little bit of pressure, can you just talk about when those businesses might inflect and turn positive for you? Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Certainly. Well, as it relates to Korea, the industry there really expanded at an enormously rapid rate over the last 10 years and is now contracting. There are players leaving the industry, there are competitors departing the market. We are committed to being there, we have a new leadership there which is very focused on a high degree of profitability; and by the way, that business is profitable for us. But when it will be – when it will get back to the days of growing at a rapid pace and being highly profitable, I'm not sure yet, but it is a profitable business and our expectations are for continued improvements. We've made, as Tom mentioned, significant improvement on the inventory turns, we've reduced our reliance on old inventories, and that business is improving. And as it relates to the Russian business, it's really going to be a function frankly of the – what happens to the price of oil, and that's to be determined.

Rafe Jason Jadrosich - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Laurent Vasilescu with Macquarie. Please proceed with your question. Laurent Vasilescu - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Thank you very much and congrats. Last October, you called out that you expected 2015 to be the second consecutive year of double-digit net sales growth. Has your visibility changed this October regarding the following year versus last October? Thomas B. Cusick - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President-Finance: Laurent, this is Tom. I guess how I would answer that is we gave our preliminary outlook for 2015 at this time a year ago, because of really the significant disconnect in our outlook – our internal outlook relative to the Street. Given we don't have that disconnect at this time, we've not provided a preliminary outlook for 2016, if I'm answering your question correctly. Laurent Vasilescu - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Yes. That's very helpful. So then we can expect what guidance – what the Street has for next year then? Thomas B. Cusick - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President-Finance: We will be providing our 2016 outlook in our February earnings announcement. Laurent Vasilescu - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Okay. Fair enough. And then I think on an annual basis, it's been mentioned that DTC is 36% of your overall business. Can you provide some clarity around how much DTC contributes for the third and fourth quarters? Thomas B. Cusick - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President-Finance: Well, I don't have that detail in front of me, but I think it'd be fair to say that DTC is a higher percentage in the fourth quarter for certain than the full year. I don't have the third quarter in front of me, but certainly for the fourth quarter that would be the case.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Corinna Freedman with BB&T. Please proceed with your question. Corinna Lynn Freedman - BB&T Capital Markets: Hi, good evening, guys. Let me add my congratulations. Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Thanks. Corinna Lynn Freedman - BB&T Capital Markets: Quick question on SOREL. As you add outerwear this year and essentially have an untapped international market, could you maybe share with us the long-term vision for this brand, how big you think it could be and how meaningful it could be to the bottom line? Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Well, we have a lot of discussions internally on this specific subject as you might imagine. And really the focus has been on improving and continuing to make our footwear business the leader. But there is a lot of opportunity in apparel and accessories and possibly even handbags. We constantly look at our biggest competitor in this space, which will be, again, north of $1 billion. So, when you think about where we could be with this business, if we operate it properly, that's certainly something to shoot for. I don't believe that the outerwear component at that brand is as strong as it could be with SOREL, based on our company's understanding of how to build outerwear. So we're still experimenting a bit, but frankly, I think there's lots of opportunity to expand the brand into categories which are very relevant to this. Corinna Lynn Freedman - BB&T Capital Markets: Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jay Sole with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question. Jay Sole - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Hi. Good afternoon. Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Hey. Jay Sole - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Hey. I just want to follow-up on the DTC. Could you just talk about maybe your update on maybe store opening plans for 2016? And maybe, more importantly, how your website and everything you're doing from an e-commerce standpoint helps drive the wholesale business? Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Well, let me – I'll talk about the e-com business and how important it is for our total business. And then maybe Tom can give you some specifics on the brick-and-mortar store openings. We're one of the – we're the last players in our space that's – actually have commerce business related to our website. And what we found that our traffic to the site increased dramatically. But frankly, our conversion rates are in the range of industry average, which means something like 97% of all people that visit get a very robust marketing message and deliver an important view of the company and its products, and go somewhere else and buy the products. So I think it's been very accretive to our marketing efforts as a wholesale business. So just by way of reference, we have direct e-com businesses in U.S., Canada, Japan, Korea, and almost every country in Europe. So we'll have – we'll continue to invest in that area of the business, because it's very accretive to the total brand building experience for the brand. Thomas B. Cusick - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President-Finance: Yeah. And Jay, on the new store…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Christian Buss with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question. Christian Roland Buss - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about how much the better execution on deliveries contributed to the revenue growth in the quarter, could you quantify that? Thomas B. Cusick - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President-Finance: Yeah. Christian, this is Tom. So, if you look at the percentage of our order book that we've delivered in Q3 this year versus last, it's about a $40 million – it's a $40 million plus increase year-over-year based on the order book this year. Christian Roland Buss - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay. That's very helpful. And that does help you on the gross margin line as well, because you're not paying late payment penalties or anything like that, correct? Thomas B. Cusick - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President-Finance: Correct. Christian Roland Buss - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): That's very helpful. Thank you so much and best of luck. Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back to Tim Boyle for closing comments. Timothy P. Boyle - CEO, Director & Executive VP-Global Sales: Well, thank you very much for listening in. We're excited about the progress the company has made towards our ultimate goal of exceptional performance in all fronts, and we look forward to talking to you at our next quarterly call.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.