Joseph Harvey
Analyst · John Dunn with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead
Thank you, Jon, and good morning. It was a challenging quarter in terms of market volatility and share price depreciation. Flows were negative, reflecting the market environment, but we have elements of strength in business development, and our relative performance remains strong. While we still see attractive corporate investment opportunities, we intend to prioritize initiatives more stringently and defer some discretionary spending until the magnitude of the recession becomes more clear. We are in the midst of one of the biggest regime shifts and the macroeconomic environment in my career. In my view, two notable features of this transition have emerged. First, the cycle is taking a long time to unfold, reflecting the significant momentum that our economy had and that Chief Capital has been available for many years. Routinely, now the Fed has been criticized for being behind the curve, the latest being the speed of tightening without allowing for the economy to respond. Second, the adjustments to financial asset prices could continue to be challenging as interest rates move from zero to more normal levels, at the same time as investors require higher risk premiums. In other words, multiples are compressing while inflation is flowing through earnings power. Several factors make me think about higher required risk premiums including de-globalization, the end of the Fed put and the end of the fiscal put as recently evidenced by the bond vigilantes showing up in the U.K. De-globalization, together with the Fed jumping from one side of the monetary policy board to the other could create more volatility in the economy, in earnings power and in growth rates. Meantime, asset allocations are being reevaluated as Fixed Income reprices. One year treasury bills yielding 4.6% is a noteworthy benchmark. While this sounds like a challenging investment environment and it is, it will ultimately create opportunity. Our relative performance, as Jon reviewed, remains strong. Last quarter, we called our performance unique due to the rapid market regime changes over the past few years. The same qualifier holds true in bear markets which are torturous, confounding and emotionally taxing. Rallies are typical and powerful due to short covering, providing another challenge for our portfolio managers. The important ingredients to navigating bear markets include patience in awareness that they take time to fully play out, investment frameworks that guide discovery of the unknowable and tail risks, and of course, strong leadership and focus. Fortunately, our firm's financial strength and positioning within the asset management allow our investment teams to continue to focus on investing. In the third quarter, we had net outflows of $598 million firmwide, bringing year-to-date outflows to $559 million. Outflows in the quarter were driven primarily by U.S. REITs and to a lesser extent by preferreds. In U.S. REITs, the outflows were attributable to one allocator in our flagship fund Cohen & Steers Realty Shares. In addition, three advisory separate account clients trimmed portfolios to fund private real estate commitments or to profits. Offsetting the outflows in U.S. REITs, we had inflows into global real estate, global listed infrastructure and multi-strategy real assets. Open end funds had net outflows of $732 million. Gross inflows were 18% below the trend line, reflecting that volatility has made investors in wealth more hesitant to allocate to risk assets. Redemptions were the second highest ever after the record set in the second quarter. Bright spots in the wealth channel were the 17th straight quarter of inflows from defined contribution and the ninth straight quarter of inflows into our offshore SICAV funds led by our multi-strategy real assets SICAV. The one allocator to U.S. REITs just mentioned accounted for $1 billion of outflows in open end funds in the quarter. They follow an economic cycle based approach and have been positioning for recession. The remaining allocation of $200 million was liquidated after the quarter completing their program. The other major story in the open end funds was preferreds. Two months of inflows into Cohen & Steers' Preferred Securities and Income Fund precipitated by market expectations of a Fed pause in July and August were offset by redemptions at September when the pause was not realized. Our multi-strategy real assets fund was a bright spot with inflows of $174 million in the quarter and $647 million year-to-date. Advisory had outflows of $220 million. Gross inflows included $400 million from four new mandates, yet were offset by the three client rebalances previously mentioned. Before new accounts were in global listed infrastructure from an African sovereign wealth plan, in U.S. REITs for our corporate pension and multi-strategy real assets for a corporate pension and a global listed -- global real estate, which was a takeaway from an underperforming peer manager for a state pension fund. Advisory has had five straight quarters of outflows, driven by various reasons including harvesting profits from opportunistic fundings during the pandemic drawdowns, rebalancing for planned funding needs and navigating this year's volatility. The most important takeaways for me are demand for our strategies continues to grow, our sales team is well organized and has a good strategic plan and we're enjoying more success with asset consultants. Bottom line, we need to bring more new accounts in to offset the inevitable churn that occurs during market environments such as this. Sub-advisory ex-Japan was driven by a new variable annuity mandate of $200 million, where the client hired us to replace an affiliated manager in U.S. REITs. As Matt reviewed, Japan sub-advisory had net inflows, which were supported by strength in the U.S. dollar versus the yen. One of the U.S. REIT funds that we sub-advised for Daiwa Asset Management is among the best-selling funds. Our won (ph) and unfunded pipeline is $1.1 billion compared with $1.5 billion last quarter. $820 million of last quarter's pipeline was funded and we won $562 million of new unfunded mandates. Measured by AUM, our pipeline is 65% global real estate, 13% U.S. real estate and 13% global listed infrastructure. Looking forward, we have shaped our corporate priorities for 2023 from our investment views, asset allocation trends and client demand. First area of priority, we see accelerating demand for global listed infrastructure and multi-strategy real asset allocations. We are mobilized to educate on asset allocations and offer both core and customized solutions. And in each of these asset classes, our relative performance is strong, so our goal is to gain market share in those growing asset classes. The backlog of opportunities in institutional advisory for global listed infrastructure is significant and is broadening by investor type and geography. Factors driving the interest in infrastructure include recognition of general underinvestment in infrastructure, which can set up good investment opportunity, awareness of the difficulty and fulfilling allocations with private infrastructure alone, and the view that the investment characteristics of infrastructure can be attractive in a volatile environment. For multi-strategy real assets, the persistence of high inflation plus the risk of inflation surprises is helping to generate demand. Our second area of focus, we believe the corrections in REIT and preferred security prices will present a compelling entry point over the next year. REIT prices are down 30% this year compared with 21% for stocks. Our valuation metrics show that REITs are cheap versus stocks and versus U.S. private real estate, but less so compared with bonds. Private real estate values need to adjust lower to reflect both economic slowing and changes in the debt markets that is higher borrowing costs, lower LTVs and contracting loan availability. We believe that a good too great buying opportunity is emerging and preferred securities. As the yield curve adjust to the new regime and anticipating the Fed will overshoot, the pathway of higher yields and higher than average credit spreads will present a great income opportunity currently in the 7% to 10% zone with potential for capital appreciation should the Fed turn neutral. Further for preferreds, we are planning to see two new strategies, which have broader mandates, a move prompted by the improvement in the fixed income cycle. We continue to advance our initiatives and private real estate. Right now, we believe the best opportunities are available in the listed market, considering share price declines for REITs. However, the price discovery process has commenced in the private market as well. We expect that an attractive buying period is emerging in private real estate, and therefore, we are continuing our capital raising efforts and focusing on our investment strategies accordingly. In terms of distribution priorities, we are seeing more interest in listed real assets in Asia, so we expect to allocate more resources there. Another priority is organizing our wealth team to distribute private real estate in the broker dealer, registered investment advisor and family office segments. As the wealth channel continues to allocate more to alternatives, we will supplement our existing sales teams with specialists in private real estate. In closing, one of the biggest questions for asset managers will be, how asset owners shift allocations in response to higher fixed income yields and lower plant assets? Some plans may have less flexibility due to funding needs, which could favor listed strategies. Many still need strong returns to achieve their investment goals. We believe fixed income now provides solid return potential with diversification, which didn't occur last -- this year, but we expect will ultimately return once the rate cycle matures. This should result when portfolio tilts back to fixed income. Fore real assets, I believe the demand will continue for the total return, inflation sensitivity and diversification characteristics that they provide. Operator, at this point, let's open the call to questions.