Joe Harvey
Analyst · John Dunn with Evercore ISI
Thank you, John, and good morning. The sharp turn in the macroeconomic, geopolitical and market conditions in the first quarter gave way to a bear market in stocks and bonds in the second. In light of this, I'd say our business trends have been evolving about as expected. In terms of things we can control, we are performing well. Our investment performance is strong, and we continue to strengthen our distribution, develop new investment capabilities and vehicles and expand and upgrade our talent. Today, I will walk through our business trends, then discuss our approach to managing during challenging market environments. In terms of planning and resource allocation, we recognize the Fed will need to act aggressively to subdue inflation. That may result in some type of recession, the shape and duration of which are currently unknowable, but an average recession is a good starting point. Unlike the global financial crisis, we believe the financial system is fundamentally strong, so we don't foresee a financial crisis, but we do expect credit problems from weak hands and from balance sheets that are not built to withstand higher interest rates. While it's too early to predict what the shape of a recovery might look like, the underlying health of the financial system and the fact that the Fed will have capacity with interest rates to provide stimulus in the future both point to the potential for a decent recovery. That said, with the Fed being behind the curve, there is risk of a sustained phase of overcorrections, which, when combined with deglobalization and a higher level of embedded inflation may create greater volatility in the business cycle. While markets were extremely challenging in the second quarter, our relative performance, as John reviewed, remains strong. This is particularly noteworthy in our view, given the rapid market regime changes over the past few years in terms of economic style and factor shifts. Our investment agility is likewise notable in light of our size, as illustrated by our market share in open-end funds of 36% in U.S. real estate, 13% in global real estate and 45% in preferred securities. Another compelling performance metric. 98% of our mutual fund AUM is rated 4 or 5 stars by Morningstar compared with industry averages in the 40% range. Of course, larger fund shops have many more strategies and it's hard to be great in everything. But these ratings speak to both our excellent investment performance and our belief in the specialist business model. In the second quarter, we had outflows of $717 million firm-wide following the $756 million of inflows in the first quarter. Outflows were recognized primarily in our preferred strategies, which began in the first quarter when the Fed commenced its tightening process. We also saw outflows from global real estate, driven primarily by the redemption of opportunistic allocations made early in the pandemic. All other strategies had inflows in the quarter, led by our multi-strategy real assets portfolio. Again, not a surprise, considering inflation and the strong absolute and relative performance of this portfolio. In our view, investor decisions have, for the most part, been rational. In open-end funds, we had outflows of $244 million in the second quarter compared with inflows of $208 million in the first, ending 13 consecutive quarters of inflows. U.S. open-end funds were negative at $178 million and our UMA, SMA platforms had $74 million of outflows. For U.S. open-end funds, gross sales in the quarter were consistent with levels over the past year, yet redemptions were at a record high in the quarter. Our flagship preferred fund, Cohen & Steers Preferred Securities and Income Fund drove our open-end results with $890 million of outflows. We also had outflows totaling $259 million from our core U.S. REIT funds, Cohen & Steers Realty Shares and its institutional sibling, in 1 case, due to a large allocator and in another case, due to 2 institutional clients' redemptions. Our other U.S. REIT fund, Cohen & Steers Real Estate Securities Fund saw $558 million in inflows, its second highest in history, a portion of which was from a model allocation. The difference in flows in these funds demonstrates that investors are reconfiguring portfolios in different ways. Specifically, the buyers were adding inflation protection, and the sellers were reacting to the business cycle. In other cases, health care plans redeemed to create liquidity for operations. The underlying point, during market regime changes, it is not unusual to see logical but conflicting allocation trends. Our strongest flows were into our multi-strategy real assets fund, which saw $362 million in inflows in the quarter, and that was catalyzed by inflation. We had more modest inflows into our listed infrastructure and global real estate funds. Institutional advisory had net outflows of $408 million. We had inflows from 3 new mandates totaling $200 million and $561 million from existing accounts. Unfortunately, withdrawals from opportunistic real estate allocations that were added during the pandemic by existing clients, together with a withdrawal by 1 client that had been using listed real estate to stay temporarily invested while waiting for private capital calls, contributed to net outflows. Of all of our business trends, these withdrawals are somewhat surprising, considering that REITs have meaningfully corrected, and we believe represent much better value than the private market, which is in a price discovery process. While market volatility could slow activity somewhat in advisory, we see growing demand worldwide for listed real estate and infrastructure. Activity is robust in the U.S. and Middle East and is emerging in Asia. Our consultant ratings and relationships are strong and broadening. This year, our institutional finals win percentage is 88%, which compares with a 3-year average of 59%. Our [indiscernible] unfunded pipeline was $1.5 billion, the same as last quarter and again above our 3-year average of $1.3 billion. $630 million of last quarter's pipeline was funded and we won $672 million of new unfunded mandates. Measured by AUM, our pipeline is 57% global real estate, 22% U.S. real estate and 17% listed infrastructure. With respect to our business strategy, we plan to take a measured approach that balances the very positive long-term backdrop in the band for our strategies with the risk of recession and a more prolonged period of market volatility. Even with fixed income yields rising, we still see the need for alternative allocations and portfolios that have total return, income, diversification and inflation protection attributes. This, together with our outstanding investment performance, positions us well. In terms of protecting the downside, we have raised the bar for headcount additions, although we are continuing with key strategic hires to help execute our business plan. Our balance sheet is strong. Just as we have done in prior bear markets, we've taken a strategic approach to growth opportunities so that when we get to the other side, we're ready to gain market share. Market regime change can create opportunity and our preferred securities business is a good example. While we've experienced recent outflows, as the cycle matures, considering the backup in preferred yields, as John outlined, we believe an attractive entry point will emerge. Great business opportunities follow great investment opportunities, so we are developing strategy extensions and related vehicles centered around preferreds. I'll close with a brief recap of key priorities. The first is advising our clients in navigating this volatile market environment. This applies to all strategies. Yet with the high profile impact of inflation, we have an opportunity to educate on how to deploy our multi-strategy real assets solutions. Global listed infrastructure performance has shined this year relatively, showing its all-weather investment attributes. And if the economy becomes more volatile, infrastructure should continue to do well. We have a strong backlog of institutions evaluating infrastructure. We are focused on capital raising and private real estate and believe the regime change will set up a good vintage investment period beginning in 2023. As John articulated, we see an opportunity to advise clients on real estate portfolio optimization and expand our market share with advisers in the wealth channel, who don't currently use both listed and private real estate in a complementary fashion. In institutional advisory, we need to attract more clients to help offset the churn that invariably happens. And in particular, we have an opportunity to capitalize on our strong consultant ratings and demand for listed real estate and listed infrastructure. Finally, we continue to invest in our talent and execute strategies to enhance our culture at Cohen & Steers. We've entered this cyclical downturn with strong momentum. While the markets have slowed our organic growth, we expect to emerge on the other side even stronger. Thank you for your interest in Cohen & Steers. Operator, could you please open the lines for questions?