Bob Steers
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question
Thanks Matt, and good morning. Following the release of our December and full-year AUM report, John Dunn of Evercore published a report entitled out of the desert net inflows after a ten quarter drought. While it’s just one quarter, the inflows reflect our successful effort to improve investment performance especially in our flagship REIT strategies and to expand and improve our distribution. I believe that we’ve succeeded in both endeavors and I'll expand on that in a minute. The timing of our improved flows is noteworthy and that while we appear to be emerging from the desert, almost all traditional long-only managers are facing significant organic decay rates despite the long-running debt in equity bull markets. It's clear that the secular headwinds were active long-only managers are real. That said, I believe we can achieve positive organic growth based on three fundamental trends. First, we invest in inefficient asset classes were active management has and continues to work well. Second, as a firm, our investment performance especially in preferred securities in all three REIT strategies is outstanding and dominates our active competitors and especially passive. Finally, these real asset and income oriented strategies are consistently gaining market share of asset allocations at the expense of traditional core style boxes. As we've seen so dramatically already in January, the markets will ultimately determine where capital will flow. But we are better positioned today than ever to compete for those flows. Investment performance is the main reason for our confidence, so let me share some highlights from last year. First, I need to point out that despite the concerns about how REITs might perform in a rising interest rate environment, US REIT indices were up over 7% in the quarter despite the highly anticipated December FED tightening. During the quarter and also for the full year, seven out of ten of our core strategies outperformed their benchmarks. In 2015, all of our REIT strategies beat their benchmarks by a lot, 280 basis points to 420 basis points. And our preferred securities strategy was 290 basis points over, which marks the 13th consecutive year of outperformance, a really remarkable accomplishment. Of our investment strategies that have ten-year records, five of the six have outperformed in all of the one, three, five and ten year time periods. The fixed strategy, global listed infrastructure underperformed by 20 basis points last year but otherwise has also outperformed for the three, five and ten year time periods. In addition, our flagship US REIT fund Cohen & Steers real estate securities and our flagship income fund Cohen & Steers preferred securities and income are both ranked in the top-decile versus their peers by Morningstar for each of the one, three and five year time periods. These results convincingly demonstrate that for our real asset and preferred security strategies active management is vastly superior to passive and that we complete extremely well versus our peers. As Matt mentioned, firm-wide net outflows were $981 million last year. However, since the second quarter, we’ve seen a persistent uptrend in flows in each channel culminating in fourth-quarter net inflows of $450 million or a 4% organic growth rate. Wealth management was by far the strongest channel but as I mentioned last quarter, search activity and our advisory group has ramped up significantly and remains elevated. In the quarter, wealth management book net inflows of $519 million for a 13% organic growth rate. As has been the case all year, our preferred securities fund dominated the net inflows. However, what is different is that we also had net inflows into our US net strategies for the first time in over a year. On the new product front, in December, we launched a first of its kind low duration preferred securities fund. And we anticipate that investor demand will gradually ratchet up throughout the year for what we think is a very timely product for the current market environment. Turning to the advisory channel, the increase in institutional real asset RFP activity we saw earlier in the year has translated into multiple new advisory mandates. The three largest mandates that were awarded but are not yet funded ranged in size from $200 million to $400 million each and encompassed Asia Pacific real estate, global real estate, and our first multi-start real assets advisory portfolio. Needless to say, we’re encouraged by the increased institutional interest in real asset space. So even as we are able to achieve modestly positive advisory net inflows in the quarter, our pipeline of awarded but unfunded mandates grew from $500 million in the third quarter to $1.35 billion at year-end, which bodes well for organic growth going forward and RFP activity remains high. Lastly, we've been reviewing our European business development plans for over a year and we are pleased to announce that Marc Haynes formerly a partner at Greenwich Associates heading up their global investment management practice across the UK and Europe will head up our business development efforts in the region. Sub-advisory flows ex-Japan were muted in the quarter. Net outflows were a modest $45 million and for the full year net inflows totaled $22 million, which is the best result since 2011. Turning to Japan, the trends there too have shown strong improvement. Total net outflows in the quarter were only $50 million, the lowest in over four years. In fact, as Matt mentioned, Daiwa had $576 million of net inflows before the anticipated distributions of $600 million, which puts us very close to our target of flat net flows. As always, we are working with existing and new distribution partners to support existing funds and to launch new products. Also, our more recent focus on the institutional market in Japan is progressing nicely and we’re currently working with our local partners on multiple active searches. Looking ahead, our industry is facing a variety of secular headwinds ranging from the rise in cost of regulation and distribution to the competitive threats of passive and alternative strategies. Differentiated investment performance has always been important but is even more so now and we'll be in the future. If the current trends of negative organic growth, multiple contraction and consolidation persistent to the future, a high quality and liquid balance sheet will also be important for future value creation through opportunistic capital allocation. As Matt noted in this remarks, our balance sheet is quite strong with no debt and meaningful cash. In addition to delivering industry-leading investment performance, we plan to maintain our financial strength and flexibility to compete effectively and to create future shareholder value. With that, I'd like to open the floor to questions.