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Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 3, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Canadian Natural Resources 2015 Fourth Quarter and Year-End Results and 2016 Budget Conference Call. Slides that are included for the call can be found on the homepage of Canadian Natural's website. After the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. Please note that this call is being recorded today, March 3, 2016 at 9 AM Mountain Time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, Mark Stainthorpe, Director, Treasury and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Stainthorpe.

Mark A. Stainthorpe - Director, Treasury and Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our 2015 year-end conference call, where we will discuss our operational and financial results. Additionally, we will discuss our effective strategy, provide details in regards to our 2016 budget, provide an update on our year-end 2015 reserves and review our financial position and financial management strategy moving forward. As Chris mentioned, we will be referring to slides as part of the webcast and the slide deck can also be found on the homepage of our website. The agenda for today's call can be found on slide 2. With me this morning are Steve Laut, our President; Tim McKay, our Chief Operating Officer; Lyle Stevens, our Executive Vice President of Canadian Conventional Operations; and Corey Bieber, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I'd like to refer you to slides 3 and 4 for the comments regarding forward-looking information contained in our press release and also note, all amounts are in Canadian dollars and production and reserves are expressed as before royalties unless otherwise stated. I'll now pass the call over to Steve Laut. Steve? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Before I start this morning, I'd like to acknowledge Doug Proll, our Executive Vice President. After 15 years with Canadian Natural, mostly as CFO and the last few years as Executive Vice President, and an impressive career, Doug decided early in 2015 that he will retire at the end of January 2016. Doug has been an integral part of Canadian Natural's management committee and has made significant contributions to the success of Canadian Natural, not the least of which was his ability to develop people, mentoring Corey to take over the CFO role two years ago, and being the signing board…

Tim S. McKay - Chief Operating Officer

Management

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everyone. Starting with slide 12, our 2016 capital budget is modest at C$3.5 billion to C$3.9 billion, which is focused on finishing Horizon 2B expansion and progressing Phase 3 towards completion in 2017. We're maintaining our lands and infrastructures in all areas, and have a small amount of spending on quick payout, high return projects that will add low cost volumes to our existing operations. Slide 13, while our capital spending is reduced in most areas compared to 2015, we still see growth in our International division, Pelican natural gas as well as Horizon. In 2016, Horizon has a planned 35-day turnaround as well 2B expansion comes online in just seven months, adding 45,000 barrels a day. And we're targeting to exit with a productive capacity in 2016 of 182,000 barrels a day. On an overall basis, our BOEs will see a slight decrease of 2% year-over-year with a guidance range of 809,000 BOEs to 868,000 BOEs per day. On slide 14, on the operating cost side, we continued to drive efficiencies and cost savings in all areas. When you compare 2014 to 2015 on a unit cost basis, we've made significant programs with savings of approximately C$1.1 billion when compared – comparing these areas on a unit cost basis. Slide 15, our plan for 2016, we will continue to lower our cost structure by improving productivity, leveraging technology, being more effective and efficient in all areas of our business as well as working on our supply chain to lower our overall costs. In seven short months, Phase 2B will be starting up adding an additional 45,000 barrels a day of synthetic oil at Horizon. We'll continue to optimize all our assets doing consolidations and adding low cost recompletion of workovers, volumes and attractive metrics.…

Lyle G. Stevens - Executive Vice-President, Canadian Conventional

Management

Thanks, Tim. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. To start our reserves review, I'd like to point out that as in previous years a 100% of our reserves are externally evaluated and reviewed by independent qualified reserves evaluators. Our 2015 reserves disclosure is presented in accordance with Canadian reporting requirements, using forecast prices and escalated costs. The Canadian standards also require the disclosure of reserves on a company growth working interest share before royalties. I'll start with slide 32. In 2015, we had an excellent year from a reserves perspective and our strong performance is reflected in our finding and development costs. Our corporate finding, development and acquisition costs, excluding the change in future development capital, are C$9.96 per BOE on a proved basis and C$11.08 per BOE on a proved plus probable basis. Note that these FD&A costs exclude the proceeds from the disposition of our royalty assets. If these proceeds were included, our corporate FD&A cost improved to C$6.72 per BOE on a proved basis, and C$7.48 per BOE on a proved plus probable basis. In 2015, Canadian Natural has realized significant cost reductions in both development capital and maintenance capital. Results of these improvements are reflected in the future development costs that the independent evaluators incorporated into the reserves evaluation. On a corporate basis, these cost reductions and the 2015 capital program, which is now behind us, are so significant that the negative change in future development capital exceeds our 2015 capital expenditures. This means that it's not possible to calculate the finding and development costs, including the change in future development cost. This calculation is possible for our North American conventional and thermal assets. Here, we have finding, development and acquisition costs, including the change in future development capital of C$1.69 per BOE on a proved basis…

Operator

Operator

The first question is from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Good morning. Congrats on the results. And thank you for a thorough presentation. On slide 40, I want to start there and your updated capital spending budget post 2016. Can you just talk us through post 2016, what the CapEx levels are in 2017 and 2018, and then what are the different flexes or ranges of outcomes that you can see in those years? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: Okay. Thanks, Neil. Let us talk a little bit about 2017 and 2018, remember that we're a ways away from that, so we're going to give you... Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Yes. Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: ...some ranges here. But in 2017, we're looking to spend around that C$2.5 billion to C$2.6 billion, and remember about C$1 billion of that is Horizon expansion for Phase 3. Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Right. Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: Getting to 2018, we expect to spend about the same, about C$2.5 billion to C$2.6 billion. So what that means is, in that capital spending, we'll allocate more capital to some of our conventional gas and oil developments and that'll keep our production flat. Those are the numbers that keep our production flat. We're assuming we have low oil price throughout at that time. Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs & Co.: And just to confirm, so at that capital spending level that you show on the slide, we should assume production is flat 2017 and 2018? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: That's correct. Yeah. Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. And then as…

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Phil Gresh with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Hi. Good morning. Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: Good morning. Corey B. Bieber - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice-President, Finance: Good morning, Phil.

Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

The first question is just a follow-up to Neil's question on slide 40 on the production side of things. So, understood on the amount of capital required to keep base production or keep production flat. I guess, the question is just that if you have Horizon ramping in 2017 and 2018, are you explicitly saying that you expect production to be flat or could it actually be more than flat, just based on the timing of those project ramp schedules? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: It's going to be lumpy, Phil, but we expect to average production for those years to be flat over year-over-year. I guess, that's the best way to answer that question. So...

Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Got it. So, well just put it another way, are you basically saying that the base production in 2017 would be down roughly 45,000 barrels a day and then in 2018, it would be down to 80,000 to offset the growth from Horizon? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: No, we are not saying that. We are saying 2018 over 2017 will be flat, relatively flat, and 2017 over 2016 will be relatively flat.

Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Okay. So, with growth from Horizon offset by declines elsewhere? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: Yeah. And our mix changes, obviously, will become longer life low decline – decline rate drops through 2016, 2017 and 2018.

Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Okay. And then in a scenario if pricing is better, is priority one, I guess, to take that down more, or where would you stand on excess capital and potentially reinvesting in the business versus debt pay-down based on the schedule you laid out? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: I think it's pretty clear. If you look at our track record, Phil, we've stretched the balance sheet before and we've done large acquisitions in each and every time, we have taken the cash flow from that and paid down debt. So our first priority will be to pay down debt here, as we move forward.

Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

And is there a general level? I mean, you had a fairly wide range. Is there a level that you will be more comfortable with where when you get to the certain point, you'd be more inclined to do buybacks or something else? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: I think it all depends on that – Corey talked about ranges in his talk there and you see it in the slides. I think it all depends on what the commodity outlook is, what are our cost structures and everything else that goes with it. So it's tough to make the call, but I think it's pretty clear that our priorities are to maintain balance sheet strength. We have lots of assets and lots of opportunities. We look at acquisitions opportunistically and returns to shareholders are probably right behind paying down debt.

Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Okay. Last question is just on the midstream business, obviously, have a lot of assets available there as well. Are those strategic to the portfolio at this point or just tell me how are you thinking about those? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: Yeah, I would say almost all our midstream assets are strategic and one of the reasons you've seen Tim talk about our cost structure. One of the reason we are able to keep a little cost structure and lower that cost structure more is that we do control the midstream assets and we control the whole supply here production chain and that allows us to consolidate and do many things here to keep our costs low. So, for us, it's strategic to own those midstream assets.

Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Okay. Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Amir Arif with Cormark Securities. Your line is open.

Amir Arif - Cormark Securities, Inc.

Management

Thanks. Good morning, guys. Congrats on a good quarter. The first question is more as you get the Horizon ramped up and you've got higher synthetic production mix in your corporate mix, does that change your views or thought process in terms of how you'd like to develop additional assets going forward if you just assume the strip pricing? I mean, does it make you more comfortable with more heavy oil growth? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: I think, Amir, as we've talked before, we are not sort of strategically tied down to having a certain exit mix or balance. We are totally focused on value growth at Canadian Natural. So we will allocate capital to maximize value and that's our first priority. So I don't think it's going to change if they have more SCO. It does change the mix of the company because clearly our decline rates go down, our maintenance capital is significantly less to whole production, and that gives us a lot more robust company and a lot more strength and a lot more capital allocation options going forward. But it doesn't change how we allocate, it's all based on return on capital.

Amir Arif - Cormark Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay, thanks. And then in terms of the shut in volumes. Can you highlight how much volumes are shut in right now on both, I think it's C$50 million on the gas side and just how much is on the oil side and at what oil and gas price do you hit cash flow breakeven in terms of bringing those back online? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: So, Tim, you want to talk a little bit about how much we got shut in right now?

Tim S. McKay - Chief Operating Officer

Management

So, on the natural gas side, we have currently about 40 million a day shut-in. 20 million I would consider is more long term as prices have softened and the 20 million other we're just looking at to see how we can reduce our cost structure further for 2016 and see what we can do there. On the oil side, we have about 1,000 barrels a day pretty well all heavy oil. And again, we're reducing our cost quite quickly in heavy oil and we don't see us doing too much more shut-ins there.

Amir Arif - Cormark Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay. Is there a price, Tim, at which WCS price at which those 1,000 barrels a day would make sense to put back? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: We have to look at that, and to (45:55) Tim's point it's how fast we can drop the cost structure. I think some of it, we would say we're going to wait until we see stability in the WCS price before we brought it back, so you want to be spending much money to bring back production. It's going to cost you some money to reestablish it and then go shut it in two months later. So we'll wait to see some stability.

Amir Arif - Cormark Securities, Inc.

Management

Makes sense. And then just final question on Horizon. Just I was wondering if you can give us a little more color on the quarterly outlook, just given that, I think there was a turnaround happening mid-year, if you can tell us how long that turnaround is going to be? And then it seems like you're tying in some of Phase 2B at that time. So, is there the opportunity for production to ramp up before year-end? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: So for Phase 2B and the turnaround, so this is a pretty important year for us. The turnaround is scheduled for like three days, five days, it's going to start in July. During that time, when we're making a much of tie-ins for Phase 2B, so this is opportunistic in that sense. And after the turnaround is done, we will start commissioning and we expect to start up in the fourth quarter and seven months really in September, we're going to start starting up Phase 2B. That being said, in April here, we are already start commissioning parts of Phase 2. So it's not going to be everything has to happen in August and September to get September production. We are starting in April commissioning for parts of the plan.

Amir Arif - Cormark Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay. And then by year-end we should be close to your full productive capacity of 182,000? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: That's the plan and that's the target we expect to be there sooner actually.

Amir Arif - Cormark Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay. And utilization rate on 90%, 95% range (47:32) Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: We target between 92% and 96%.

Amir Arif - Cormark Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay. Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: And I think so far we're doing – in the first two months of 2016, we're doing about 97% utilization.

Amir Arif - Cormark Securities, Inc.

Management

Yeah, okay. Terrific. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Chris Feltin with Macquarie. Your line is open.

Chris Feltin - Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd.

Management

Hi, guys. Great quarter. Just a quick question on the production outlook for 2016 here. It is interesting to see the production guidance. The range obviously increased, but the upper end is actually above the upper end of guidance that you put out previously. I was just curious taking a look at what would have to happen for you to get to the upper end of your production guidance right now? Just curious like what the path would be to get towards that upper end of guidance? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: I think the path really is through thermal production and Horizon effectiveness. As Tim mentioned in the call here, we have some issues with Primrose East pipeline. So, depending how quickly we can get repairs or how much forecast to be done which we don't know yet, that's why the range widened, that could drive us to the higher end of the range or towards the lower end of the range. Right now we feel pretty confident being in the mid-point of the range.

Chris Feltin - Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd.

Management

And would TCPL gas outages be impacting that potentially as well on the gas side? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: On the gas side, we also have widened the range because we're not totally sure what's going to happen here with TCPL maintenance. In 2015, that was an issue. So, that's another factor that affects the range on guidance.

Chris Feltin - Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd.

Management

Okay, that's helpful. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Greg Pardy - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Management

Yeah. Thanks. Good morning. Steve, you mentioned a 13% decline rate in 2018. What would the corporate decline rate now like in 2015 be all in? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: It's about 15% right now.

Greg Pardy - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay. Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: So two points on a fairly large production basis is significant.

Greg Pardy - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay. Got it. And then maybe just continuing along the liquidity side, you boosted your royalty production, now it's a couple of thousand BOE a day or so. Is that something that's on the table to sell at some point? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: I think that's one of the things that Corey talked about. As you know, we have a lot of royalties we pay to ourselves, but over time here we've collected about another 1,000 barrels a day, or BOEs a day I should say, of royalties that we collect from third parties, so that is something that we'll clearly look at as we go through 2016 to see if we should monetize.

Greg Pardy - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay. Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: That's one of the things that Corey talked about.

Greg Pardy - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay. Great. And last question from me is just with respect to your revolvers and so forth, I mean, if you sought to add capacity on your revolvers or you wanted an increase in the term loan with your banking syndicate, do you think that would be an issue? Corey B. Bieber - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice-President, Finance: Greg, it's not in the plan right now, so it's not something we really explored with our banks. I would never say never. I think we've had tremendous support by our banks. That being said, I don't think we need to increase liquidity or further term out. As I pointed out earlier in the call, right now all of our maturities are in that 2018, 2019 timeframe. So we're pretty comfortable with where they are.

Greg Pardy - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay. Corey B. Bieber - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice-President, Finance: During the first quarter, we did extend a maturity that was coming up in January of 2017 and extended that up to 2019, and added another small bi-lot (51:05). So that is evidence that even here in the earlier part of the year, the banks are working together with us.

Greg Pardy - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay, perfect. Thanks, guys. Corey B. Bieber - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice-President, Finance: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Hey, guys. Sorry for the follow-up here, but two quick ones. One to confirm that there is no intention of doing equity any time soon. I think some of the decisions around the capital reductions are in many ways to stave off debt, but given the amount of equity that has come to the market in the upstream space in the last couple of months want to get that confirmation? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: Thanks, Neil. If you look at the Canadian Natural, so for the last 25 years and it's still true today, we take a long-term view. And if you look at our underlying business model, the strength of our assets, the effectiveness and efficiency of our operations, which you can see they delivered top-tier operating costs, if not industry-leading operating costs in many of our areas, you combine that with the fact that we're nearing the completion of Phase 2B here, which is only seven months away and in that point in time, the Q4 cash flow will cover all our capital requirements and dividends, even at US$30 WTI and plus the fact that we have ample liquidity. We do not see any need to look at reducing the dividend or raising equity. Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Very clear. Just wanted to confirm. Thank you. Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: Yeah. Thanks for asking the question.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Fai Lee with Odlum Brown. Your line is open.

Fai Lee - Odlum Brown Ltd.

Management

Hi. It's Fai here. Steve, in terms of the C$2.6 billion of maintenance CapEx forecast for 2018, can you maybe just talk about how you arrived at that number? And I guess related to that question is, some of that capital that's being spent on Horizon expansion is getting redirected into the more conventional businesses. What are the kind of priorities you could see in 2018 where some of that capital will be heading towards? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: I think the answer is the same as we had before. It was a different question, but it's the same answer. We always look to allocate capital to maximize value. So, we look at our average cost to add production across-the-board and we use a sample mix, and we know our decline rates in the conventional business, there is no decline in Horizon, there is no decline in Pelican and we know where we can add production at those costs, and with those costs, we can maintain production. But we don't have a bias to where we go. We go to where it adds the greatest value.

Fai Lee - Odlum Brown Ltd.

Management

Okay. And in terms of – okay that's fine. And in terms of the FX assumption, just curious, you've had the WTI kind of going up over the next couple of years. But the FX seems to be flat. I'm just wondering how you arrived at that assumption or if it's coming from a sell-side estimate? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: Yeah, Fai, that was simply the strip at the point in time that we determined.

Fai Lee - Odlum Brown Ltd.

Management

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Showing no further questions at this time, I'll turn the call back over to Mr. Stainthorpe for any closing remarks.

Mark A. Stainthorpe - Director, Treasury and Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Chris, and thank you, everyone, for attending our conference call today. As we continue to deliver on our effective strategy and manage through a period of depressed and volatile commodity prices, Canadian Natural has a very strong and diverse asset base, an enviable balance of production and a strong well developed plan. Our focus remains on safe, efficient and reliable operation, and a sound financial position, supported by available liquid resources. If you have any further questions, please give us a call. Thank you again, and we look forward to our Q1 2016 conference call in May. Thanks and goodbye.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.