Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Canadian Natural Resources Q3 2015 Conference Call. After the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. Please note that this call is being recorded today, Thursday, November 5, 2015 at 9 o'clock a.m. Mountain Time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, Doug Proll, Executive Vice President of Canadian Natural Resources. Please go ahead, Mr. Proll.

Thank you, operator. Good morning and thank you for joining our third quarter 2015 conference call. Today, we will discuss the company's financial and operating results, including providing you with an update on the progress of the Horizon expansion. We will also discuss our thoughts on guidance for 2016. With me this morning are Steve Laut, our President; Tim McKay, Chief Operating Officer; Lyle Stevens, Executive Vice President - Canadian Operations; and Corey Bieber, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to refer you to the comments regarding forward-looking information contained in our press release, and also note that all amounts are in Canadian dollars, and production and reserves are expressed as before royalties unless otherwise stated. I would like to make a few comments before turning the call over to Steve and Corey. In response to volatile and sharply lower commodity prices, we continue our focus on reducing our cost structures both operating and capital, while maintaining safety and environmental standards and ensuring that our nimble in allocating capital. This strategy has resulted in significant savings to-date, which is apparent in our nine months results. At Canadian Natural, we have a proven, effective, value-driven strategy. We delivered strong cash flow from operations of CAD4.4 billion or CAD4.03 per share for the first nine months of 2015. We continue to execute on our capital programs within our available cash flow. Horizon 2B Phase 2B is targeted to be substantially complete in Q3 2016 with the time as equipment which is will occur concurrent with the major turnaround. We focus on safe, effective, efficient, and environmentally-responsible operations resulting in reliable operating performance across our diverse asset base providing strong cost control management. Canadian Natural is committed to new technology, development and sustainable environmentally-responsible operations. You can know more about our sustainable operations in our 2014 Stewardship Report to stakeholders available on our website. We have a large, well-balanced portfolio of assets with significant exposure to light and heavy crude oil, as well as significant natural gas upside, while continuing the transformation to long-life, low-decline assets. Our balance is strong, we maintain strong lines resources and we have maintained our current quarterly dividend payment. And we're increasing sustainable cash flow from our operations. Thank you. And I will now turn the call over to Steve.

Good morning, everyone. As you can see from the quarter, Canadian Natural remains in a strong position. As we progress 2015, it’s apparent that the resilience of our strong, diverse and well balanced asset base robustness of our business model in the effectiveness our strategies combined for our ability to execute these strategies has allowed to adopt and navigate this low commodity price environment. Canadian Natural is one of the few companies in our peer groups where underlying base business is delivering sufficient cash flow in this commodity price environment. Cash flow we are using to partially fund the rise and expansion the cornerstone of our transition to our long life low decline asset base. Canadian Natural has built to withstand low commodity prices. In 2015, Canadian Natural remains committed to lowering the cost structure in a methodical and structured manner. We are committed to completing Horizon Phase 2/3 on schedule and on budget. We’re also committed to maintain the optionality of our balanced and diverse asset base ensuring we can act quickly to change. Most importantly, we are committed to maintaining balance sheet strength, creating value and delivering returns to shareholders. In the third quarter, we delivered 848,000 BOEs a day, our production up 6% over Q3 2014. Canadian Natural’s operations continued to be effective and efficient, as we further enhance our effectiveness in Q3 through better efficiency and innovation. Operating costs were down from Q3 2014 to Q3 2015. 15% of Pelican Lake, 19% of Canadian light oil, 21% in primary heavy oil, 27% of Horizon and 8% in North American natural gas. And because of the cyclical nature of Primrose production, it’s not meaningful to compare quarter-to-quarter. That being said, annual thermal operating costs are targeted to be down 16% in 2015. As a result, we’ll be…

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. The company has performed very well in the context of the drop in WTI prices from CAD100 in 2014 to about CAD51 for the year-to-date 2015. For the nine months ended December 30th, cash flow from operations are 4.4 billion covered all about 300 million of our capital expenditures and dividends paid and that included over 1.6 billion of capital cost related to construction of Horizon Phase 2/3 expansions. This demonstrates Canadian Natural, as effectively and appropriately respond for the new commodity price paradigm. We clearly defined our priorities for 2015 and have remained set fast. Since our initial 2015 capital budged of CAD8.6 billion was released one year ago, we have proactively reduced capital guidance five times, the latest being today’s CAD65 million reduction. The total capital guidance reduction accumulates to CAD3.165 billion or 37% of the original budge. With respect to operation cost, to reiterate one of these points, we have seen significant drops across the board. An estimate of these savings versus the prior year accumulates to approximately CAD945 million through the first nine months of 2015. At the same time, production levels for the first nine months are about 11% higher than for the same period in 2014, reflecting the impact of improvements in Pelican Lake, thermal, Horizon and international coupled with a disciplined drilling program in 2014 acquisitions. Liquidity stands drawn at CAD3.4 billion at September 30th, more than ample to deliver near term requirements. Beyond this and given our maintenance and strong investment grade ratings, I believe we are very good access to the debt capital markets. Based upon current strip pricing, foreign exchange rates and midpoint production guidance, we would currently anticipate ending 2015 at about 38% debt-to-capitalization or debt-to-EBITDA of about 2.7 times. These estimates include no value from any potential disposition of royalty interest. This is well within any covenants and quire reasonable given the current stage of the pricing cycle. Based upon the directional information provided for 2016 and given estimated required Horizon completion cost for 2017, the defined plan is very achievable from a financial perspective. Our results in 2015 demonstrated, we have a technical capability and management discipline to react and remain successful at a volatile commodity cycle. Complete with the flexibility to both scale back if required our capture opportunities should they arise. As such, I believe that our defined growth plan which largely transition us to a longer life, lower decline production mix remains intact despite commodity price is 50% lower than a year ago. Thank you and back to you Steve.

That concludes our call and we’re open for questions. Operator?

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Good morning, team.

Good morning.

Good morning.

So I want to start off on the potential monetization of royalty assets and what are the gating factors in terms of timing there and in terms of whether it’s 2015 or 2016 event?

I think Neil, as you heard in the call we’ve been saying it all year. We’re out here to get full value, maximize value for royalty assets. Our target is to do in 2015. If we can do it in 2015, we will. If we can’t get the full value for the assets, we won’t. So we’re not going to drive by timing, we’re driven by maximizing value.

Yeah that makes sense. And then in terms of the capital spending level, thanks for providing some incremental color for 2916. With the roll off of some of that Horizon spending it’s again to ‘17, any directional thoughts in terms of the magnitude you could step down in ‘17 versus ‘16?

The capital spending in Horizon, you are talking about Neil?

Across the portfolio.

Across the portfolio, I will say the commodity prices are I think it’s too early process to expect what 2017 capital would be. But I think it’s safe to say that we require about CAD1 billion less capital expenditures on Horizon project expansion, so we’ll be to allocate that capital to our priorities that we talked about earlier, one was you know balance sheet strength, our return to shareholders, opportunistic acquisitions and resource development. We’ve done a pretty good job of balancing that off of the years and that will be the case in 2017 as well.

Okay. Last question for me is on the balance sheet, you mentioned 2.7 times debt-to-EBITDA, as you think about a target levels, there are number that you have in mind either on the debt-to-cap basis or debt-to-EBITDA basis?

Certainly our long term targets are in that 1.8 to 2.2 times on debt-to-EBITDA, we’re above that targeted range today given where the commodity cycle is over the long term we tend to drift back down towards that. Debt-to-book capital range is at 25% to 45%, so we’re well within the real house there.

Terrific. Thank you, guys, congrats.

Thanks.

And your next question comes from the line of Phil Gresh with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Hi good morning.

Good morning.

My first question is just on the 2016 cash from operations guidance. If I think about the comparison to what you’ve done in the past two quarters about 1.5 billion a quarter implies something more like 6 billion run rate, I mean if I look at next year or you know the 1.5 billion a quarter compared to the implied quarterly run rate next year about 1.2, so it’s about CAD300 million decline, production supposed to be flattish, I know you had some hedges this year that probably had the roll off maybe have some impact, but if you could help us all of that more with how to think about that bridge on cash from operations from ‘15 to ‘16?

I think it’s all depends when you want to use to commodity price Phil, so if you look at the strip 24 which sort of be in that CAD5 billion range. Well that being said, our operating costs continue to come down. So we’ll give clear guidance as we finalize the 2016 budget.

Okay. So you are just using the strip, the current strip for ‘16?

Yeah, that’s right.

Okay. The second question is just on the incremental CapEx flexibility that you highlighted, how should we think about the flex capability in 2016 relative to this initial guidance if things remain lower or below the strip?

I think our flexibility is probably in that CAD500 to CAD1.5 billion range depends how severe prices come back, how much we pull back. We still have quite a bit of flexibility.

Okay, that’s helpful. And then on the capital allocation priorities, I believe you ramp ordered debt pay down number one, dividend number two and there is some language in the release about the dividend, so just to make sure I understand, you basically you are saying, you want to keep the dividend flattish through the ramp of the capital spending on Horizon after which you kind of reassess that or how should I interrupt that, a little bit color would be helpful?

I would interrupt that way Phil, reality if you look at our dividend, we’ve increased dividends for 15 straight years, we’d like to keep that record point. So I think we’d say that we will increase dividends, we did last year as well. So it’s truly see that’s a decision will come to early in 2016, but our bias is to have a strong dividends going forward and as you can see our balance sheet is strong, our production is strong, our operating costs are coming down and we’re going to be coming on production from Phase 2B in Q4, full year of Q4 2016, some will come earlier. So we’ll have quite a bit more cash flow coming towards at the end of 2016.

Okay, that’s helpful. And then on the leverage target, do you have a view of where you’d like to be by the time Horizon ramps over the next two to three years in terms of the debt pay down priorities?

I think you heard Corey talk early, will stay within our guidelines as we have before.

Yeah, I think that’s fair Phil. You know a lot of it really depends on where commodity prices are and as we reiterated several times today, the strong balance sheet is the top priority because that gives us the flexibility to manage cycle. So we’ll use the balance sheet right now to bridge through to getting horizon complete but we will maintain a strong balance sheet through that period.

Okay. Last one would just be on growth projects moving forward as Horizon rolls off, but beyond just getting a better sense of the royalty rate environment, maybe you could just talk kind of more organically in terms of projects return growth files, what it would take to consider moving forward with one these in situ projects again you know under the assumption that you know the royalty use are more benign?

You know it’s really hard the question to answer, we don’t know the staffs royalty spill, so I am hesitated to answer that question. I will say you know we have a large asset base, it’s diverse. If you look in the gas side, we have a larger Montney asset, a lot of adds in BC, a big high quality portion of it’s in BC, so we probably go there first. We can do thermal projects, obviously we have large heavy oil inventory that can drill, some of that’s in Saskatchewan, we also have Pelican Lake that wish come back too. And thermal projects probably need a little bit more higher pricing and we have do before we done.

Okay, got it, that’s helpful. I’ll turn it over. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Benny Wong from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Yeah, thanks. I really appreciate the guide of the remaining spend in Horizon. Just wondering if there are any contingency budgeting in sales number?

Yeah, we do have contingency in there Benny. It’s probably about 6% at this point in time.

Great. And I just wondering if you can provide an update on what you are seeing in terms of acquisitions and tuck-in potential, you know there’s been a uptick of asset deal activity in Canada, just wondering if you could speak to that and offer your perspective of opportunities you may or may not seeing?

You know, there is need to some assets on the block, we don’t see whole big state title winning for properties. As you know we look at every property that comes through our quarter. We look at lot, we evaluate some and we bid on even less. So we’ll continue to do that, right now I don’t know if it’s going to be too active.

Got it, thanks. And just as a follow-up question, as looking it further down the road once Horizon 2/3 expansions are complete and we’re in the CAN60-CAN75 EBITDA that you guys are envisioning, how do we think about what’s an appropriate rate of growth going forward and is there a change in that if the Alberta royalty review was unfavorable and your asset direct capital outside of Alberta? And I’ll leave it with there, thanks.

It’s a good question Benny, I don’t know how to answer we don’t - it’s all kind bet royalty reviews going to be, but you know Canadian Natural is totally focused on value growth and economic growth and are going to produce sake. We have a diverse portfolio not only here in Alberta but DC, some in Saskatchewan, obviously in Cote d'Ivoire. So we have opportunities here that we can allocate capital in 2017 and 2018 that will create economic value and value growth.

You next question comes from the line of Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Yeah, thanks, good morning. I just want to stay on the topic of Horizon but maybe just to talk about the math first because I think you’ve now rates your base that are 137,000 and then you’re going to add another 125, so that - I mean that would put you 10,000 through the 2015, but Steve, is 250 capacity in 2018 are fairly conservative number in your books?

Yeah, we’re hoping nobody did the math Greg, but yeah it’s probably conservative, it’s conservative, we think we can do more than 250. We got to see it on going for sure.

Okay. And then the second things I was - so I was going to ask you is well just about 28 capital spend, so given that then goes to zero, you’ve been reworking the - I knew was that 90,000 to 95,000 are flooring on the expansion, so what - I mean if you just do the math for me, what would that now kind of map toward in terms of a capital intensity. And am I thinking about this the right way or has this been really the removal of contingency that is knocking off the capital in ‘18?

No, I think we’re just progressing than expected and I would say we’ve been fairly effective in our execution strategies, so our cost are headed I would say toward a lower CAD90,000 and CAD95,000 of well.

Okay. Okay, great, thank you.

[Operator Instructions] And your next question comes from the line of John Herrlin with Society General. Your line is open.

Yeah, thanks. Steve getting back to the royalty issue, given the amount of stress that the industry is experiencing, do you think the Albertan government has a greater appreciation of that with respect to the ongoing discussion on royalties?

Yeah, I think they have John, I our discussions with the royalty panel and with royalty they understand the importance of the oil and gas industry at Alberta, they understand that there is a lot of job creation that goes with it, they understand how many jobs have been lost here in the downturn. So I think they have an understanding where we are, where the industry is right now and what that actually means to them in terms of royalties, income taxes, job creation, municipal taxes, lease rentals, as a whole life here a value creation that goes to the oil and gas industry is not just straight to royalty. So they are getting a better appreciation of that and I think they have a fairly good understanding of where we are today.

Great. Next one for me, on the E&C side, is it lot easier to procure things now or schedule things just given the slowdown?

Yeah, I think it is but let me go get Tim here Chief Operating Officer to give a comment on that.

Yeah, we’re seeing very good efficiencies, we’re seeing very good turnarounds on modules, equipments and any other services that throughout the industry.

Okay, thank you.

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Doug Proll.

Thank you, operator. And thank you, ladies and gentlemen for attending our conference. As we discuss today, Canadian Natural has a focus plan implemented in 2015 that will carry through 2016 and 2017. The plan revolves around continued focus on lowering cost structures, completion of Horizon Phase 2B in ‘16 and Phase 3 in 2017, continued maintenance and of our company’s strong balance sheet, flexible lines of liquid resources, maintenance of our dividend program and preservation of the optionality of the company’s reserves and land base. The goal of this of course is a focus plan to continue to create value for our shareholders. If you have any further questions, please give us a call. Thank you again and we look forward to our fourth quarter and year-end conference call in early March, 2016.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen for you participation. This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.