Tom Webb
Analyst · UBS. Your line is open
Thanks Patti. Second quarter results at $0.45 were up $0.20 compared with the year ago and on a weather or normalized basis up $0.14. This is substantially better than our original plan more than offsetting the adverse weather in the first quarter. For the first half overall, our earnings were $1 for a share up $0.10 or 11% from plan. Now as you can see here, while our first quarter results were down $0.14 from the same period in 2015, we more than offset that with our performance in the second quarter which is up $0.20. The weather helped a bit as did the expected impact of approved rates. In addition, we reached a settlement with the Michigan Treasury on used taxes, a nice $0.03 uplift. As you would expect, we also improved our O&M cost compared with the year ago by $0.09 in the second quarter. This reflects benefit gains, better run collectable account performance, all plant closures and a variety of other solid operating improvements. Looking ahead into the second half, if weather is just normal, we’ll accomplish a nice uptick of $0.13 compared with 2015. As you may know, we already have a headstart on the third quarter with hot and muggy weather in July. Even with that or even without that, we would have plenty of room for growing infrastructure investments and we continue to project 5% to 7% earnings per share growth with solid confidence. I know most of you are well acquainted with the concept of this slide, where we show our projected earnings per share growth for the full year as the year progresses. During the first quarter, mild winter weather and abnormal storms reduced our earnings per share outlook by $0.13 but in a short period of time we were right back on track with earnings growth in the 5% to 7% range. You can see the improvements that offset abnormal weather in the lower box on this slide. We are ahead of our guidance and as always will put that upside to work for our customers and will deliver consistent pure leading EPS growth. We’ve delivered 7% adjusted EPS growth for almost 15 years. Here is the picture of our track record for just the last 5 of those years, it shows how we consistently offset bad news and put good news to use for our customers without compromising our predictable earnings growth of 7% each and every year. Over the last 3 years, favorable weather and cost reductions in excess of our plan generated room to invest a quarter of a billion dollars for our customers, half from weather and half from cost productivity better than planned. That’s a big number, we put these savings to work in many, many beneficial ways. Turning to 2017 and the future, here is our business model which is pretty simple and maybe just a little unique. We’re fortunate to have a lot of capital investment opportunities over the next 10 years as we catch up on projects we didn’t do over the prior 10 years. This investment in reliability, cost improvements, environmental mandates and other areas grows by about 6 to 8% a year, perhaps what’s unique about our model is that we self fund the bulk of the investment increase keeping our customer base rate growth at or below the level of inflation. That discipline provides a real rate reduction for our customers as we make substantial improvements on their behalf. Over the next 10 years, we’ll invest over $17 billion in both our electric and gas businesses as shown in the circle on the left. 37% of this investment is in our growing gas business which already is the fourth largest in the nation. What’s important is that all of these investments add tremendous value for our customers, whether it’s exceeding compliance requirements for clean energy, enhancing productivity, reducing costs or improving our service. And we have opportunities to increase spending further on infrastructure as well as replacing large PPAs. We can build new capacity cheaper than existing PPA contracts, opportunities around these items could be in the $3 to $4 billion range. Part of the secret sauce as Patti mentioned is being able to reduce our O&M cost to help funding investment. We prefer annual rate cases because they are simple and manageable and they provide us with the opportunity to share our cost reductions with our customers as we gain recovery for capital investment programs, you can see our plans on the right. We are constantly refining including sizing ourselves to demand, for example we’re in the middle of a voluntary separation program to enhance the phase of savings in a manner that treats our colleagues in a fair and respectful way. Net of cost increases, our cost reduction will be $60 million or about 3% a year over 2016 and 2017. That’s consistent with our prior performance as shown on the left where we reduced our O&M cost by almost 3% on average each year since 2016. It’s a program we’re proud off and one that we can continue for many years as we take advantage of solid business decisions and better processes that we describe as the Consumers Energy Way. In addition to our cost performance, our conservative yield sales growth and our ability to avoid new dilutive equity, we still have attractive upsides outside of the utility. As you can see in this slide, continued layering in of the energy and capacity sales could enable us to increase our profitability by $20 to $40 million at our Dearborn industrial generation operations, you call that DIG. This is a nice insurance policy for our utility and a catalyst for new growth and by the way today we’re celebrating 10 years without a safety incident at DIG, Safe and excellent operations are the foundation of our success. Now, here is our standard profit and cash flow sensitivity slide to help you with your assessment of our future performance. I know there is a lot of concerns around the sector about the impact of low interest rates on pension and benefit obligations. A 50 basis points drop could be worth about a $12 million hit to earnings for us, lower debt cost however would offset much of that and should we make a pension contribution of say a $100 million that would offset the rest and then so we do not see a major interest rate concern for us. The world changes every day and our model is built on being prepared to mitigate or take advantage of changes as they occur. Brexit from the European Union which I think surprised a lot of us last month has sure surprised me is a good example. It created opportunities to issue more debt at even lower interest rates, it also added to uncertainty, one of the reasons that we keep a little thicker liquidity levels than most of our peers. For example in May, before Brexit we extended our five year revolvers another year. Our liquidity including these revolves is over 15% of our market cap and that’s a bit thicker than the average of our peers. And here is our report card, we are right on course to achieve our plans for capital investment, high quality balance sheet, competitive customer prices, a robust dividend payout, strong operating cash flow and adjusted earnings per share growth in the 5% to 7% range. We are pleased to have been able to deliver consistent strong earnings growth for 14 years and we intend to continue this for a long time. Our earnings and dividend growth continue at a consistent type pace every year no matter what’s happening in the economy, the weather, politics or succession planning. So thank you for your interest and your support, we’re deeply grateful for it and we’d be delighted to take your questions. So Tiffany would you be kind enough to open the lines.