Earnings Labs

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 25, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to Chipotle's Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mark Alexee, Investor Relations Manager for Chipotle Mexican Grill. Please go ahead, sir.

Mark Alexee - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Hahn. Hello, everyone, and welcome to our call today. By now you should have access to our earnings announcement released this afternoon for the third quarter of 2016. It may also be found on our website at chipotle.com in the Investor Relations section. Before we begin our presentation, I would remind everyone that parts of our discussion today will include forward-looking statements as defined in the securities laws. These forward-looking statements will include statements of our business outlook, forecasts of EPS, comparable restaurant sales, restaurant level operating margins and G&A and other cost savings in the fourth quarter 2016 and for the full year 2017, descriptions of the impacts of new technologies on our business, statements about planned marketing programs, projections of the number of restaurants we intend to open and new restaurant development costs, projections of effective tax rates for 2016 and 2017 and statements about stock repurchases as well as other statements of our expectations and plans. These statements are based on information available to us today and we are not assuming any obligation to update them. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. We refer you to the risk factors in our Annual Report on Form 10-K, as updated in our subsequent Form 10-Q for a discussion of these risks. I'd like to remind everyone that we have adopted a self-imposed quiet period, restricting communications with investors during that period. The quiet period begins on the first day of the last month of each fiscal quarter and continues until the next earnings conference call. For the fourth quarter of 2016, it will begin December 1 and continue through our fourth quarter earnings release, planned for late January 2017. Our discussion today will also include non-GAAP financial measures, a reconciliation of which can be found on the presentation page of the Investor Relations section of our website. We will start today's call with some longer than normal prepared remarks and then we will be sure to allow 20 minutes to 30 minutes for questions. On the call with us today are Steve Ells, our Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer; Monty Moran, Co-Chief Executive Officer; Mark Crumpacker, Chief Marketing and Development Officer; and Jack Hartung, Chief Financial Officer. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Steve.

Steve Ells - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Mark, and good afternoon, everybody. We are beginning to emerge from the most difficult year in our history and are seeing many reasons to be optimistic that we are headed in the right direction to restore our business to a place our many shareholders will be proud of. But please note that while we are on the road to recovery, we're not satisfied and we'll continue to work extremely hard to make the necessary adjustments necessary to restore our business and deliver results as quickly as possible. From early this year, we have recovered more than 16 points of sales comp and we've recovered 20 points of traffic comp, and we're making steady progress toward further recovery. During the third quarter, we generated revenue of $1.04 billion, down 15% from last year on a comparable restaurant sales decline of 21.9%. During the third quarter, we opened 55 new restaurants, bringing our total number of restaurants to 2,178. And we generated diluted earnings per share of $0.27, which includes a negative $0.29 impact related to asset impairment. Since our recovery began, we have seen a gradually improving outlook for sales and earnings and fully expect that those trends will continue. 2016 will be marked as a significant reinvestment year as we continue to work to make Chipotle a stronger company in the wake of last year's events. Looking forward to 2017, and based on current trends, we believe that we will produce diluted earnings of $10 per share on same-store sales growth in the high single-digits for 2017. We believe that the full year 2017, we can generate restaurant-level operating margins of 20% and save more than $100 million in capital and operating expenses combined. To achieve these results, we must be steadfast in executing our recovery plan which remains…

Montgomery F. Moran - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Thank you, Steve. Achieving a full recovery means having all of our restaurants at their very best in terms of serving delicious, safe food and providing an excellent restaurant experience while continuing to grow sales. As we move forward with our recovery plans, the guest experience remains our greatest area of focus. Providing an excellent guest experience starts with serving food that's always safe and delicious. While many of our enhanced food safety efforts occur outside the restaurants in the supply and distribution network and with enhanced technology, we also rely on strong restaurant teams and field leaders to carry out additional elements of our food safety program in the restaurant. Ensuring that we execute these procedures in our restaurants has been our top priority. To accomplish this, we have significantly expanded training, food safety inspections and third-party and internal audits in our restaurant. These audits help us identify opportunities for improvement and ensure that all of the programs we've put in place are being executed consistently and properly. To further these efforts and to continuously improve food safety in our restaurants and supply chain, we've also established an independent Food Safety Advisory Council made up of some of the country's foremost experts in food safety and food microbiology. This advisory council alongside Dr. Jim Marsden, our Executive Director of Food Safety, is charged with continuously reviewing our food safety programs and looking for opportunities to strengthen them even more. This quarter we shared some key points about our enhanced food safety program with our customers through a PR campaign aimed at highlighting eight key areas of advancement that we made. The campaign included full page ads in newspapers, as well as online and social media advertising in addition to print and video materials of Steve describing why our food…

Mark Crumpacker - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Monty. I'm very glad to be back and I'm eager to share with all of you some of the important work that we're doing to bring customers back and restore our brand image. But first, I want to apologize to everyone for recent events in my personal life. I'm sorry that I caused a distraction for the company and I want you all to know that I've put this behind me, learned from it and returned to my role in early September, excited and with a renewed focus and determination to help drive Chipotle's recovery. I want to thank you all for your support and forgiveness, which has meant a great deal to me. Today, I'm going to recap the marketing activities from Q3 and then I'm going to talk about several important breakthroughs with regard to customer data, technology and restaurant design before reviewing development expectations. During the quarter, we successfully concluded the Chiptopia Summer Rewards program, designed to restore the frequency of our most loyal customers. In all, we had just under 6 million participants with more than 2.5 million of those earning rewards in the program. We issued 340,000 super rewards for customers who maintained higher frequency levels, including more than 75,000 Catering for 20 rewards. We are excited by the potential positive brand impact of 75,000 catering parties over the coming six months. Throughout the course of the promotion, we saw increased transaction and frequency levels. But most important, we have nearly returned to pre-crisis levels among our most loyal customers. After the completion of the program, we anticipated traffic to fall slightly, but we have instead seen our improved sales levels generally continue to hold, which is very encouraging. During the quarter, we ran three marketing campaigns each with different but complementary objectives. The…

John R. Hartung - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Mark. When the year began, we described 2016 as a year where we will make significant investments to ensure our food is safe and encourage our customers to return to Chipotle. We knew these significant investments would put additional pressure on our margins in the form of elevated food costs, higher advertising and promotion costs, and higher labor costs to serve our returning customers. We intentionally did not emphasize restaurant efficiencies and even encouraged extra staffing in our restaurants during promotion period because we did not want to risk trading a few points of margin on the P&L in return for disappointing a customer, who visits an understaffed restaurant. The sales decline, combined with these investments and inefficiencies, have resulted in significant declines to our margins. As we near the end of 2016 and we begin to look ahead to 2017, we'll continue to do all we can to restore customer trust and recover customer visits. We also are committed to taking important steps to restore our economic model. With the strategies you've heard Steve, Monty, and Mark talk about, we believe we can deliver comps in the high single-digit range for the full year in 2017. Of course, we hope these strategies will deliver an even greater sales increase. But we believe this comp projection represents a stretch, yet responsible goal. With a focus on delivering greater efficiencies in our restaurants, identifying cost savings in everything we buy in our restaurants and in our offices, supporting our growing restaurant base with flat G&A, and beginning to normalize our promotion and advertising, we expect to deliver a restaurant level margin of 20% and an EPS of $10 in 2017. While these projected results do not fully restore our economic model, it's an important step in the right direction. We…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we'll go to our first question from David Tarantino with Robert W. Baird. David E. Tarantino - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Hi. Good afternoon. Steve, I just have a general question on the overall operating approach going forward. One of the hallmarks of the Chipotle business is how simple you've kept the operations and how focused you've been on delivering high quality. And now we're hearing that you're going to shift the focus a bit towards menu innovation and perhaps traditional marketing tactics or strategies. So just wondering why you think that shift is needed now versus perhaps just going back to basics on focusing on delivering the high-quality experience.

Steve Ells - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Well, David, I think that we're going to do both. We're going to focus on fundamentals and try to continually deliver a better experience through that method. But we also want to try new things. Again, to get some customers who may have lapsed, to reinvigorate our regular customers to encourage them to come more, and perhaps to even entice new customers who haven't tried Chipotle. It's important that when you add something to the restaurant, you take something away. And although with the addition of new menu items, we're not going to take away other menu items, there are things that we can do to create efficiencies in the way we prep, in the way we get ready for business, in the way we find leverage. Finding leverage is interesting because there have been suggestions that we add breakfast, for instance. Well, I'm not saying that we won't add breakfast, but when trying to find leverage, our second make line now has an enormous opportunity. The second make line can attract or provide for catering, for delivery, for the mobile app, to enable customers that are in line to get out of line and go to a tablet, and probably things we haven't thought of yet. It's extraordinary leverage because the labor to produce the food is much less at the second make line because of the new technology. So my point is that you need to balance everything in the restaurant. And so we will make some things more efficient, so we will be able to add things like a dessert item or a new menu item. Again if you look at some other examples of fast food places getting too complicated, I don't think they kept this idea of taking away whenever you add something. So on balance, you still have the same amount of ability to focus on delivering the extraordinary experience that they've been accustomed to. David E. Tarantino - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): I guess just a quick follow up to that, if I may. I guess you've gotten to $2.5 million without any of those new menu items. So I guess the question is, why do you think you now need new menu items to get back to those kind of levels versus just going back to the old operating approach? I guess I'm a little confused by that point?

Mark Crumpacker - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Well, David, this is Mark. The new menu items, I wouldn't worry that we're going to slip into the traditional fast food model of introducing multiple new menu items wrapped with advertising multiple times a year. Our business really doesn't support that anyways because it's really a one price for everything you get at Chipotle, unless you get something extra like meat or guacamole. So we really don't have the ability even if we wanted to, to add lots and lots of menu items. However, there is a considerable amount of value to being able to advertise to people, or to market to people something new. And we've seen it now with chorizo. It's been very effective, which is why I mentioned in my prepared remarks that we're going to increase the amount of reach of that campaign four times. And what it does is it gives people a reason to reconsider Chipotle or just to add it to their routine where they may have dropped an occasion, and we're seeing it to be very effective. And so I wouldn't worry that you're going to see us switching to this model of repetitive menu additions with lots and lots of advertising around them. But there is a real value that we've seen now very tangibly with chorizo in terms of adding something new every now and then. So I really wouldn't worry that it's going to be a complete change in strategy at all. David E. Tarantino - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to John Glass with Morgan Stanley. John Glass - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thanks very much. You highlighted a number of technology initiatives that will eventually drive sales, but at least one of the competitors in the marketplace has done that, it's taken a toll on earnings for several years as it turns out there's a lot of training costs, there's technology costs. So how much of that, if any, of those costs have you factored into 2017? Do you have a sense of not just the buying of the technology but what the training costs might be for such initiatives?

Mark Crumpacker - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Let me start, John, by talking to you about how the primary component of this thing works with regard to the technology. So the second make line that Steve referred to, we've had one in our restaurants for many, many, many years but the classic version. This new version is much more efficient. Whether or not you have the tech component added to it or not, it's just a better layout. It's got bigger bins. It's set up to be more efficient, and that new line actually is slightly cheaper than our existing second make line. And so that line that is about all the technology component on it is actually a little bit cheaper than our existing line. And so we're going to move quickly to have all of our restaurants outfitted with that new line starting in March 2017. So all new restaurants will have it and then we're going to selectively retrofit high volume restaurants with it over the coming year. And so I think it's going to be relatively quick. Now what I just described was the line itself without the technology component. It's completely set up to handle it. We add that line to the restaurants and then as we see fit, we can add the technology component to it and it's not a tremendously expensive addition as well. And so you're not going to see lots and lots of the need to build big kiosk in the front of the house, that sort of thing, because this system actually whether you're using it from a tablet inside the restaurant or from your phone in your pocket, uses a very, very similar ordering system to the one I described in my call, the new online ordering site that we've developed. And so there's very, very little overall investment in this thing and I believe that we can turn it around fairly efficiently as we roll it into our restaurants.

Steve Ells - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

I would also add that often with the introduction of technology, there is a lot of expense in training to this new technology. With the second make line, this technology actually is very intuitive. So it's actually easier to train a crew person how to operate the second make lines with this new indicating system than with the old method. John Glass - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: So in your plan for 2017, have you factored in costs, training costs, labor cost to do this or is that not in the plan for 2017? You don't think it will be an impact?

Steve Ells - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

John, we don't think it's going to be an impact. We think the labor is going to be neutral. We think over time it's going to be a labor saving. The labor per sales dollars on the second make line is more efficient than the labor per sales dollars on the front make line. Even though this is early on, what the teams have shown so far with this new approach is they can produce food a lot faster, more accurately. And so there's really built-in efficiency. If we didn't have second make lines, I would say this would be a major undertaking. It'd be a lot of training and it would take quite some time. The fact that virtually all of our restaurants already have a second make line and what they're doing right now, they're struggling to make the food on the second make line with a little piece of paper with a lot of abbreviation. What they're going to get instead of that is they're going to have a very clear indicator with the slate screens. And so they're going to be doing the same things they always have and with the restaurant that that was retrofitted in New York, the team just intuitively stopped, just gravitated towards the display screens and just intuitively just kind of made the food the way they always would except they weren't stopping like in between every ingredient or two to look at this little bitty piece of paper that's on the sides of a register receipt. So it's early, but so far we don't think there's going to be an increase in labor. The equipment cost is not that expensive. There will be an impact on depreciation depending on how many we can roll out, but it's not going to be significant. And not something that's going to affect our ability to get to within $10 EPS. John Glass - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Jason West with Credit Suisse. Jason West - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Yes. Thanks. Just a couple of sales questions. I think you guys mentioned, Jack, you're running it down about 20% in October. But I also thought I heard you say that you've seen a full return to your kind of most frequent users, which I think is new. Could you try to explain what's going on there with the different customer buckets? You're still down 20%, but it sounds like things are improving. Just trying to reconcile those issues. And then the other question on the comp outlook for next year, does that include any incremental pricing? Thanks.

John R. Hartung - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Okay. Yeah, the Chiptopia was designed to go after our most loyal customers. It's a relatively small customer group, but it's a group that comes very often. When we look at – we slice and dice our customer group a number of different ways. And when we look at our customer group for those customers that come at least a couple times a month to one time per week or greater as one group. Another group would be a customer that comes, say, once a month. Another group would come two to three times a month and another group would come once per every six months. When you take that most frequent group, by the way, all of those groups were negatively affected by anywhere between 20% and 25%, meaning they all dropped down their visit frequency. And in case of the infrequent customer, we just lost customers. And we lost them to the tune of about 20% to 25%. After Chiptopia, we recovered to a point of where our most frequent customers were back to 95% to where they were before. Now some infrequent customers did not increase their frequency, but we were able to see some customers that were not coming as often as, let's say once per week, now were coming once per week. So we don't have the exact same customers we had before. One thing we've learned as we've gone through and we've gathered this data mine, this data that Mark talked about, we found that we have kind of a constant movement of customers that are coming. Some are coming more frequently, some are coming less. What Chiptopia did was encourage those customers who either were coming frequently and reduced. A lot of them did come back and then we encouraged some that were coming a couple times per month to come at least once per week or more. But if you look at that most loyal customer group that are coming multiple times per month, that group we've recovered 95%. Now the rest of the group is a much, much, much larger group of customers that come much less frequent. That's why the things that Mark talked about make so much sense. That's why TV advertising makes sense. That's why advertising things like chorizo, which is new news, makes a lot of new sense. Dessert, once we decide which dessert we want to go with, to try to go beyond a test market. These are things that you can advertise and appeal to a broad group of customers. And so that's what our approach is, to get that much, much larger, tens of millions of customers, to come to Chipotle until we can recover that group as well. And then in terms of the comps, we don't have any menu price built into the comp at all. Jason West - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to John Ivankoe with JPMorgan.

John William Ivankoe - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi. Thank you. Two if I may. First, on that $100 million of recurring cost savings. I think you called out $10 million of CapEx. Does that mean there is $90 million of OpEx savings that you expect in fiscal 2017 over fiscal 2016, just as a clarification?

John R. Hartung - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Not necessarily. There may be other things that we buy. For example, small wares, most small wares would be OpEx. There might be some equipment that will do a more efficient job of buying and we might be replacing. So it might not be a new store impact, but with replacing equipment, let's say grills for example, we're looking for a reduction in expenses or in what we pay for everything, and so there may be some additional CapEx. But I would say the majority of the $100 million is going be in operating expenses.

John William Ivankoe - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. And secondly, the Chiptopia program obviously was successful with your most frequent customers, but given some of the complexity regarding the program, maybe some of your not-as-frequent customers didn't know necessarily how to use it or what their benefit would be or going that number of times in a month would be a lot to ask if someone that doesn't go to the brand, for example, once a week. Is there a way to approach loyalty in a different way that would have a broader appeal and is that potentially part of the plan in 2017 and 2018 to have something that's simpler and that will be a permanent part of your offering?

Steve Ells - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Yes, John, an interesting thing which I mentioned in my remarks I think that's worth noting is that over the last six months, we saw 30 million customers that were either new or people that we hadn't seen before come into Chipotle. And this is thanks to this new data capability that we have. And additionally we're now able to reach a very large number of those people. And so we have dramatically improved our ability to reach out to these customers. And they're in all frequency categories by the way. Those 30 million people range from one to more than 10 times in terms of number of visits during that six-month period. So they're all across the different frequency bands. But we have such an extraordinary new ability to reach them that we're evaluating exactly how best to use that in order to create incentives for them. We don't want to rely on a continuing basis on discounting. Obviously that cheapens the brand and creates a sense of entitlement ultimately such that people just begin to expect it. So we're very carefully evaluating how that's going to look. But to answer your question, I would say, yes. We're going to look at how we can use this new information we have about our customers and this really amazing ability to track whether or not what we do with them drives them in. So we can determine now with a very high degree of fidelity, whether or not an offer or an ad of a particular type or any other type of promotion or communication actually resulted in a visit from these customers. And so I don't want to commit right now to exactly what we're going to do, because it's really just been over the last few months that we've developed this capability. But we're absolutely going to use it in a way that allows us to create ongoing incentives, to create the momentum for these less frequent customers to become more frequent. I'm very excited about just the simple idea that so many new customers came to Chipotle. I mean, it says a couple of things to me. I mean first it says, even though it's tempting to think that, well, people are still reluctant to come to Chipotle, with that volume of people coming in as new customers, I think that's unlikely. That's showing a pretty major shift in people's attitudes. But also, those somewhat infrequent new customers have extraordinary potential to become frequent. They're the ones who have the potential to create great comps for us in the future, and so we're going to be doing whatever we can to make their stay at Chipotle as enjoyable as possible. So I can't give you a firm answer, but I hope that helps you understand sort of how we're going to be looking at it.

John William Ivankoe - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll go for our next question to David Palmer with RBC Capital Markets.

David Palmer - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Thanks, and good evening. First to follow up on some of that questioning about the marketing, you mentioned a few things, the new product news, National TV, all these things will be part of Chipotle's future, potentially. And you've tinkered with loyalty and now looking to make your bigger push behind mobile order and may be even delivery. Based on the analysis you've done so far, because it's hard for us to assess, what potential changes to marketing among these and maybe some other stuff do you believe will be the most promising and most likely that we will see?

Steve Ells - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Well, they all have promise in their own right. I think though that as I mentioned in answering the last question, we've seen very, very large numbers of new customers experiencing Chipotle. And so I think there's extraordinary potential for us to continue bringing in large groups of new customers, and that's the reason why we're currently testing television. And television isn't a panacea. It's going to be a component of larger campaigns that we do, but it's very efficient when we get to the level of doing it nationally. And so, I believe that that probably, you know, has some of the most significant potential for us to bring in lots and lots and lots of new customers. And then, assuming that we create a great experience for them, when they come in the restaurant, they will then turn into more and more frequent customers. So I suspect that amongst those things, that has huge potential, but I will follow that with a very close second, which would be the increase in our digital promotion and the capability of online ordering. And I just want to take a second to tell you a little bit more about what I'm talking about with regard, for example, to smarter pick-up times, which is the ability for somebody to come into Chipotle and get an order very quickly after they ordered it. We've been conducting a test over the last several months of this technology and through our analysis of that, we found that when people place orders at Chipotle, there's a very significant lag between when they place the order and when our restaurants allow them to come pick it up. This new technology actually eliminates our restaurant's ability to set that time gap and instead, sets it automatically based on the load of the restaurant. And so we're seeing the potential to do as many as one entree per minute using this new system. And so the marketing that goes around that, that encourages people to place their orders via digital, assuming then again, those orders are fulfilled in this efficient and excellent way, I think has a tremendous amount of potential. So I put that as a close second to the top-of-mind marketing that we're going to be doing.

David Palmer - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Karen Holthouse with Goldman Sachs. Karen Holthouse - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Hi. Thanks for taking the question. So, I guess, just thinking about some of the other pieces that have been or some of – part of improving the digital experience at the store. I know the POS system has been a part of upgrades that were needed to be able to move forward. Are there – is sort of everything else in place that you think a lot of this can be pretty plug-and-play once it's in store? Or are there sort of technological hurdles or technical hurdles that you think you're still going to be working your way through?

Steve Ells - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Well, I think that most everything is in place. And I say that wanting you to know that a couple of the key pieces are actually going to be rolled out throughout the month of November. So we have, as you mentioned, we've had some issues with regard to payments in particular, and the new responsive online ordering website that we've talked about in this call and some other, including catering, will now have a more streamlined payment process and I won't go into the technical details as to why it's more efficient, both for us and for the customer, but having gotten over that hurdle actually enables us to do a lot of the things we talked about without further technological investment. Now, I do want to caution though that, of course, when you're adding anything that consumers are interacting with, and new technology for customers, there's always room for things to go wrong and we're going to need to iterate and refine those things, but I don't see any large technological hurdles that we need to overcome in order to implement this. We've overcome a lot of those over the last 18 months actually, and we're just now, in November, going to be taking advantage of a lot of them. Karen Holthouse - Goldman Sachs & Co.: And then as a follow-up on the digital, the more one-to-one marketing. Is the dataset that you're working off of, my impression or my understanding is that the average consumer isn't scanning or swiping a dedicated Chipotle card at Chipotle, is that working off of last names and last four digits of credit cards? And then how does that evolve or change as we move towards chip-and-pin implementation when you don't get that data anymore?

Steve Ells - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Well, yeah, I mean, we are using a combination of last name and four digits of the card, but also it's a unique combination of both Chipotle-owned and commercially available databases to create actual profiles of each customer. So we have the ability to now, as I mentioned, reach many, many, many of our customers using this technology. Chip and Pin is something that we have yet to implement at Chipotle for throughput reasons and we very much hope that we're going to leapfrog chip and pin, but I feel reluctant to go too far into the technological reasoning behind that without Curt, our CIO weighing in on it. But there are more efficient ways of making payments than chip-and-pin and it doesn't seem to be – even though it is required by the credit card companies, it does not seem to be the technology that's going to be readily adopted by choice for consumers. And so we are simultaneously working on a variety of payment options ourselves and we expect that those will augment any loss should we ever implement chip-and-pin. Karen Holthouse - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Jeff Farmer with Wells Fargo.

Jeff D. Farmer - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Great. Thanks. I'm just curious what are the pros and cons of maintaining an almost 10% unit growth range in 2017 on the heels of what looks to be like almost 12 months of a 20%-plus average transaction decline. Just curious why you guys are sticking with the big numbers instead of essentially taking it down 10% or 20% just until the transactions stabilize a little bit?

John R. Hartung - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Jeff, we took a careful look at our whole portfolio and we did pare it down – we pared it down, where we eliminated either remote sites that are hard to operate or new or developing markets where the risk of low sales and the risk of trying to staff a team and attract customers in an area where that doesn't have, perhaps, a strong brand awareness or brand appreciation. And so we pared those down. But to cut the openings even further, there just isn't an advantage to doing so. The impact, when we open up restaurants on our existing comp is minimal. It's always been less than 1%; it's still less than 1% this year and so it's not like there would be a significant comp rebound. We have the pipeline, so, other than paring down as I mentioned, we have a strong pipeline, there just isn't an advantage. The recovery doesn't get jumpstarted just because we would peel off another 25, 50 or 100 openings. So there wasn't any advantage to doing so. So we thought we did the responsible thing in doing what we could to shore up the quality of the portfolio. But going beyond that just didn't offer any benefit from what we could see.

Jeff D. Farmer - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Okay. That's helpful. And just one follow up, on the potential timeline for the National TV and heightened digital capability rollout, you guys mentioned it a couple times, but theoretically, how quickly could we see TV and under what circumstances would we see TV?

Steve Ells - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Well, right now TV is being tested in three markets between October 21 and November 20. We'll evaluate that on a number of different levels and that television in two of those three markets is running concurrently with other supporting advertising, which is normally the way we'd do that, television doesn't stand on its own typically. And so as a result of those tests, we will integrate television, and as I mentioned probably at a national level, that is where the great efficiencies come in when you are making point buys like that. We would integrate that into most likely the campaign that we have launching in spring. Now that doesn't mean that we couldn't add some selective TV for certain reasons before that. But I'd say that certainly by March 2017 you'd see, if the test is successful, television integrated into the campaign.

Jeff D. Farmer - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll go now to Joseph Buckley with Bank of America.

Joseph Terrence Buckley - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Thank you. Two questions. One, curious what the second make line today is contributing to sales? Are the sales off that second make line a significant part of the business today?

John R. Hartung - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Yep, about 6%, Joe.

Joseph Terrence Buckley - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. And then bigger picture question, as you shift the focus next year to a little bit more on the unit level economics, are you coming to accept that the base level of average unit volumes and base level of restaurant margins may be lower and resetting that as the bar from which you'll grow going forward, is it somewhat of a concession that recovering the full sales level seems less likely?

John R. Hartung - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

No, we're not conceding at all, Joe, that our top line sales can't be dramatically improved over the coming years. We are just recognizing that in the meantime though, it behooves us to do everything we can to be as efficient as we can be so as to drive the very best margin possible, even during a time where our volumes are still negatively affected. But like I said in my remarks, we're not going to drive those costs down to the point where we're negatively affecting the guest experience or the ability that our field teams have in order to continue to create really great restaurant teams and have great restaurant operations.

Joseph Terrence Buckley - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our final questions from Nicole Miller with Piper Jaffray. Nicole Miller Regan - Piper Jaffray & Co.: Thank you. Good afternoon. What level of share repurchase is accounted for in fiscal 2017 earnings guidance? And then also what will the cadence of new store development look like?

Montgomery F. Moran - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Nicole, I would expect a similar buy as what we've seen in the last month or two. We bought about $1 billion worth, aggressively and that took us through like about April or May or so. But I would expect us to be at more this kind of steady level. We'll want to keep a strong balance sheet, somewhere in the $0.5 billion or a little higher on the balance sheet. And then we'll take excess cash flow and use that. So if in your model, if you take excess cash flow to assume that we kind of keep what's on the balance sheet or about what's on the balance sheet today and use any excess to buy back stock, I think you'll be in the ballpark of what we'll actually do now. We'll be opportunistic and we'll be more aggressive if the stock drops and less aggressive when the stock increases, but generally that's the approach we'll take.

John R. Hartung - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

And to answer the question with regard to the new restaurant openings we've said that it'd be between 195 and 210 restaurants for 2017.

Montgomery F. Moran - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Yeah, and the cadence will be fairly level-loaded throughout the year, Nicole, if that's what you're asking.

John R. Hartung - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Yeah, they tend to pile up a little bit in Q4 typically, but we'll level-load as best we can. Nicole Miller Regan - Piper Jaffray & Co.: Thank you.

Montgomery F. Moran - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Thank you, Nicole.

John R. Hartung - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Nicole.

Operator

Operator

That concludes today's question-and-answer session and brings to the end of our conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.