Chris Winfrey
Analyst · UBS. Go ahead please. Your line is open
Thanks Tom. Before covering our results, a quick reminder that we closed the sale of Navisite managed cloud services business within the Spectrum Enterprise in September. We have not prepared pro forma financials of recorded results to include Navisite in fourth quarter of 2018, but not in fourth quarter 2019. For the next few quarters, I will discuss Enterprise revenue growth including and excluding Navisite for comparability. On an annual basis Navisite generated roughly $150 million in revenue and its impact on our EBITDA and CapEx was not material. Turning to our results on Slide 5. Over the last 12 months, we grew total residential and SMB customer relationships by over 1.1 million, or 4% and by 268,000 in the fourth quarter. Including residential and SMB, we grew our Internet customers by 339,000 in the quarter and by 1.4 million or 5.6% over the last 12 months. Video declined by 101,000 in the quarter, wireline voice declined by 128,000 and we added 288,000 higher ARPU mobile lines. At the end of the fourth quarter 85% of our residential customers were in Spectrum pricing and packaging. And residential customer relationship growth accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year. As we look at 2020 our goal is to accelerate our full year customer growth rate as we deliver highly competitive products with better service driving connects and reducing churn. In residential Internet, we added a total of 313,000 customers in the quarter, resulting in residential Internet customer growth of 5.4% year-over-year, driven by continuing churn improvements. In residential video, we lost 105,000 customers in the quarter, it’s primarily driven by lower video gross additions year-over-year. And in wireline voice, we lost 152,000 residential customers in the quarter driven by lower sell-in following our transition to selling mobile in the bundle, and continued fixed and mobile substitution in the market generally. Turning to mobile, we added 288,000 total mobile lines in the quarter driven by the value of our mobile product offers, growing brand and product awareness and increased sales effectiveness. As of December 31st, we had nearly 1.1 million lines with a healthy mix of both Unlimited and By the Gig lines. Spectrum Mobile continues to scale with less EBITDA loss per line even at an accelerating net addition rate. And that does not include any benefits to our traditional cable connectivity business. Over the last year, we grew total residential customers by just over 1 million or 3.8%. Residential revenue per residential customer relationship grew by 1.8% year-over-year given a lower rate of SPP migration and promotional campaign roll-off and rate adjustments. Those ARPU benefits were partly offset by a higher mix of non-video customers, a higher mix of streaming and lighter video packages within our video base and $29 million of lower pay-per-view revenue year-over-year in the quarter. Our cable ARPU does not reflect any mobile revenue, but Q4 especially benefited from the timing of the rate adjustments this year. The Slide 6 shows our cable customer growth combined with that elevated Q4 ARPU growth resulted in year-over-year residential revenue growth of 5.7%. Turning to commercial, SMB revenue grew by 6.3% faster than last quarter as the revenue effects from the repricing of our SMB products and Legacy TWC and Bright House continues as well. SMB customer relationships grew by 6.8% year-over-year. Enterprise revenue declined by 4.5% year-over-year driven by the sales of Navisite and the one-time cell tower backhaul fees that we mentioned as a benefit in fourth quarter of 2018. Excluding Navisite from the fourth quarter of 2018, Enterprise revenue grew by 1.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019. And excluding both cell tower backhaul and Navisite, Enterprise grew by 8.5%. I expect that retail portion of Enterprise to continue to grow nicely as the wholesale piece including cell tower backhaul will continue to be challenging. Fourth quarter advertising revenue declined by 23% due to less political revenue in 2019. Our non-political advertising grew -- revenue grew by 4.6% year-over-year primarily due to our advanced advertising capabilities, and recently deployed products that efficiently sell highly viewed long tailed inventory, using our own anonymized much more detailed viewing data. As we look to the full year 2020, we expect to continue that growth driven by our advanced advertising business and a healthy year of political revenue. Other revenues declined by 6.6% year-over-year driven by lower processing fees and lower home shopping revenues related to video subscriber declines partly offset by higher levels of videos CPE sold to customers. Mobile revenue totaled $236 million with $138 million of that being device revenue. In total, consolidated fourth quarter revenue was up 4.7% year-over-year. Cable revenue growth excluding mobile was 3.4% or 5.2%, when excluding advertising in both years and Navisite in 2018. Moving to operating expenses on Slide 7. In the fourth quarter total operating expenses grew by $165 million or 2.3% year-over-year. Cable operating expenses excluding mobile were essentially flat or up 0.6% when excluding Navisite. And that's despite strong relationship and revenue growth. Programming increased to 0.6% year-over-year, due to higher rates that was offset by video customer decline of 2.8% year-over-year, a higher mix of streaming and lighter video packages such as Choice and Stream and lower pay-per-view expenses year-over-year tied to the $29 million of lower pay-per-view revenue I mentioned. Looking at full year 2020, we expect programming costs per video customer to grow in the mid-single-digit percentage range. Regulatory, connectivity and produced content grew by 4.3% and that was driven by higher costs of video CPE sold to customers and original programming costs. Cost to service customers declined by 2.3% year-over-year, compared to 4% customer relationship growth. So we're meaningfully lowering our per relationship service costs through a number operating, quality and efficiency improvements, which is core to our strategy. Key metrics like calls per customer, truck rolls per customer and churn, self-install rates all continue to move in the right direction as Tom mentioned. Looking ahead, we expect further decline in cost to service customers on a per customer relationship basis but this quarter’s level of operational productivity was exceptional and it will be replicated every single quarter. Cable marketing expenses increased by 2.1% year-over-year, and other cable expenses were down 1.4% driven by lower ad sales costs, which reverses in a political year, and lower costs related to the sale of Navisite, which will carry through the third quarter of this year. Mobile expenses totaled $372 million and they were comprised of mobile device cost tied to device revenue, customer acquisition and usage costs and operating costs to stand up and operate the business. Our 2020 mobile EBITDA probably looks similar to 2019 due to growth and the scale of costs. But looking at it further, our current expectation is that in 2021, our mobile service revenue will exceed all regular operating costs, excluding acquisitions and growth related mobile costs. Turning to EBITDA, we grew total adjusted EBITDA by 8.8% in the quarter when including the mobile EBITDA startup loss of $136 million. Cable adjusted EBITDA grew by 8.9% in the fourth quarter, including a roughly 3% negative growth rate impact from advertising revenue net of its associated expense in both periods. Turning to net income on Slide 8, we generated $714 million in net income attributable to Charter shareholders in the fourth quarter versus $296 million last year. The year-over-year increase was primarily driven by higher adjusted EBITDA and the loss on financial instruments in the prior year period partly offset by higher income tax expense. Turning to Slide 9. Capital expenditures totaled $2.3 billion in fourth quarter with the cable CapEx declining about $200 million year-over-year, driven by the same CPE trends, DOCSIS 3.1 benefits and lower in-sourcing and integration costs I’ve mentioned throughout the year. We spent $151 million in mobile related CapEx this quarter, which is mostly accounted for in-support capital, it was driven by software and development costs and retail footprint upgrades for mobile. In 2020, we expect our mobile capital expenditures to be similar to 2019 and then decline meaningfully in 2021 as that work will be behind us. And mobile CapEx outlook excludes any potential mid-band Spectrum acquisition build out, which would be based on a separate ROI evaluation. In 2020, we expect our cable CapEx intensity to continue to decline from the 15% in 2019. And on an absolute dollar basis we don't expect our cable capital expenditures to be meaningfully different from 2019 levels. Similar to what I just said about our mobile capital expenditures, if we find new high ROI projects during the course of the year with that accelerated spend on existing projects to drive faster growth, we’d still do so. The Slide 10 shows, we generated $1.6 billion consolidated free cash flow in this quarter and excluding our investment in mobile, we generated $1.9 billion of cable free cash flow, up $700 million versus last year's fourth quarter. For the full year 2019, we generated $5.8 billion of cable free cash flow, up $3 billion versus 2018, despite a cable working capital headwind of $800 million this past year. For the full year 2020, we would expect cable working capital to improve significantly with a neutral to slightly negative impact on our cash flow. We still have typical seasonal swings including the first quarter, in which our working capital is almost always a use of cash. With respect to mobile working capital, we continue to add mobile customers at an elevated pace, which will continue to drive handset related working capital needs in 2020. In any event our free cash flow profile improved significantly last year. We’re positioned to continue to couple our free cash flow growth with our return focused investment and capital strategy. We finished the year with $78.4 billion in debt principal and $74.9 billion in net debt. Our current run rate annualized cash interest is $4 billion. And as of the end of the fourth quarter, our net debt to last 12 months adjusted EBITDA was 4.45 times at the high end of our 4 and 4.5 times leverage range. And while calculating our leverage, we include the upfront investment in mobile to be more conservative than looking at cable-only leverage, which was now 4.31 times at the end of the fourth quarter. During the quarter, we repurchased 5.6 million Charter shares and Charter Holdings common units totaling about $2.6 billion at an average price of $459 per share. For the full year 2019, we repurchased over $7.6 billion of our equity. And since September 2016, we've repurchased over $27 billion, or a bit more than 25% of Charter's equity at an average price of $346 per share. Turning to taxes, on Slide 2, our tax assets are primarily composed of our NOL and our tax receivables arrangement with Advance/Newhouse, we now don't anticipate becoming a meaningful federal cash taxpayer until 2022 with some modest Federal cash tax payings beginning in late 2021, as we expect the bulk of our existing NOL to be utilized by the end of that year. For the years 2022 through 2024 we expect our Federal and state cash taxes to approximate our consolidated EBITDA, [less] [ph] our capital expenditures, and less our cash interest expense multiplied by 21% to 23%. That estimate would include part of our tax distributions to Advance/Newhouse captured separately in cash flows from financing in the financial statements. There are multiple factors that impact what I just described, and we're always looking for ways to improve our cash tax profile but it's a good baseline for today. So we're pleased with our results and we believe in our operating strategy, our network capabilities and the balance sheet strategy which all work in concert to create value over a long period of time. Charter has infrastructure assets with strong growth characteristics and cash flow yield. We have a lot of ancillary products to use for, and so on top of core connectivity services and combined with good value and service will drive cash flow growth with tax advantaged levered equity returns. Operator, we're now ready for Q&A.