Earnings Labs

Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

Q3 2024 Earnings Call· Mon, Nov 4, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello everyone. Thank you for attending today's Century Aluminum Company Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Sierra, and I will be your moderator for today. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to pass the conference over to Ryan Crawford.

Ryan Crawford

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the conference call. I'm joined here today by Jesse Gary, Century's President and Chief Executive Officer; Jerry Bialek, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Peter Trpkovski, Senior Vice President of Finance and Treasurer. After our prepared comments, we will take your questions. As a reminder, today's presentation is available on our website at www.centuryaluminum.com. We use our website as a means of disclosing material information about the company and for complying with Regulation FD. Turning to Slid 1, please take a moment to review the cautionary statements shown here with respect to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures contained in today's discussion. And With that, I will hand the call to Jesse.

Jesse Gary

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Thanks, Ryan, and thanks to everyone for joining. Before we get started today, we are very sad to report a safety incident that resulted in the fertility of our Mt. Holly smelter. The loss of the team member is devastating to all of us at Century, and it is especially painful given our collective commitment and focus on safety. Our late colleague's family will remain firmly in our thoughts and prayers. This event reinforces the need for us to critically examine how we operate and conduct ourselves and commit to making needed improvements without condition. It will require dedication and leadership from every part of our organization and a personal commitment from each and every one of us. Okay, I'll start the call today by reviewing the strong current aluminum and aluminum market conditions before turning to our excellent third quarter performance. I'll also discuss the additional benefits we will receive under the new section 45X guidance before Jerry takes you through the detailed financial results. I'll then wrap up and open the call for questions. Century produced excellent results in the third quarter, generating adjusted EBITDA of $104 million, which includes the impact of the updated 45X guidance. Overall, improving realized aluminum prices, both at the LME and regional premium level, and falling carbon prices drove increased profitability in the quarter and will continue to benefit our fourth quarter performance. As a reminder, LME prices roll through our results on a three-month lagged basis. So the benefit from recent spot prices, about $2,600 per ton, will not positively impact our financial results until Q1 of next year. Turning to Slide 4, global aluminum prices were largely range-bound during the third quarter before Western Central Bank actions and Chinese stimulus drove both the LME and regional premiums higher. In late…

Jerry Bialek

Analyst

Thank you, Jesse. Let's turn to Slide 8 to review third quarter results. On a consolidated basis, third quarter global shipments were approximately 169,000 tons, slightly higher than last quarter. Net sales for the quarter were $539 million, a decrease of $22 million sequentially. This was driven by lower third-party alumina sales due to support repairs at Jamalco, partially offset by higher realized metal prices and regional delivery premiums. Looking at Q3 operating results, adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century was $104 million. The $70 million sequential increase in adjusted EBITDA was driven by additional 45X tax credits, higher realized prices, and lower raw material costs. Adjusted net income was $60 million, or $O.63 per share. The name adjusting items were add backs to $7 million for hurricane Beryl related costs at Jamalco, that we told you about last call, $3 million for share-based compensation, and $2 million for the unrealized impact of forward derivative contracts. Liquidity was $279 million to end the third quarter. This consisted of $33 million in cash and $246 million available on our credit facilities. Our liquidity position remains within our target range, but decreased last quarter primarily due to inventory bills at Jamalco and the timing of alumina shipments while port repairs were being completed. We expect those to reverse in Q4 as a full quarter of normal shipments out of the Jamalco port will return inventories to target levels, increasing liquidity. Turning to Slide 9 to explain third quarter sequential improvement in adjusted EBITDA. In total, adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $104 million. Realized LME of $2,451 per ton was up $5, and European delivery premium of $335 per ton was up $52. Together, higher metal prices and regional premiums contributed an incremental $31 million compared with the prior quarter. We also…

Jesse Gary

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Thanks, Jerry. Before we turn the call over to questions, I want to spend a little bit more time on Section 45X and our Jamalco acquisition, which together with the operational improvements our team has driven over the past several years, serves to increase the stability in Century's businesses and earnings power. With the inclusion of carbon and other operating supplies as eligible for the production tax credit, we now expect If we are to increase the total amount of aluminum that is eligible for the production tax credit, we now expect our total full year 2023 45X benefit to be $79 million and estimate our total full year 2024 45X benefit to be around $73 million. If alumina is ultimately included as eligible, we expect each of those amounts to increase by another $30 million or so total over $100 million in benefit on an annualized basis. Please note, these production tax credits for critical minerals do not phase out over time. It would be increased [indiscernible] by any additional production that we may bring online in the U.S. The effect of these credits is to significantly increase the quality and competitiveness of Century's businesses. When paired with our world-class workforce, our privileged positions in very under-supplied U.S. and EU markets, as well as a globally competitive captive supply of alumina from Jamalco, you can see the quality of the earnings power of the business that we have been working towards for quite some time now. We are really proud of what the team has created here at Century and believe this is a business that can now perform very well through the cycles. We look forward to your questions today and we will turn the call over now to the operator.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Thank you very much, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. I have a fairly long list of questions. I'll try to keep them short. But first, Jesse, could you speak a little bit to the process that you have started for [indiscernible]. When did you kick off that process and when would you expect to complete it? Thank you very much.

Jesse Gary

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Sure, Lucas. Yes, as I mentioned on the call, we've been looking at this for a little while now. We did receive a number of inbound inquiries with interest in the site. And given the interest level that we saw, we decided it made sense to start a process. Now, of course, repurposing an industrial asset is a bit different than some of the other transactions you've seen in the market. There's a number of items that will need to be diligenced by the buyers and valued. And so, we'll just have to watch and see how long that takes. But what we can say for now is there is significant interest, and the process will ultimately help us determine value and make the right decision.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

All right. Well, we'll stay tuned for that. I want to touch on the LME link supply agreements for alumina really quickly. And, Jesse, could you remind us kind of what supply agreements you have in the market today, when they expire, and then from there I might have a few follow-ups. Thank you very much.

Jesse Gary

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Sure. Yes, we generally source all of our supplies, I said, either from Jamalco or from these long-term supply agreements. The supply agreements we don't disclose details of, but they are with very creditworthy counterparties, and I think there's over 2 years left on those contracts before we'll need to renegotiate them.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

So this would include both Concord and [indiscernible], or might there be a difference between the two?

Jesse Gary

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

We won't break down the individual contracts, but as you can see from our results, the collective nature of -- when you put them together, I guess, is the way to say it, along with our own internal [indiscernible] supply, we don't have any API exposure.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

And that should also hold through for 2025?

Jesse Gary

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Yes, in 2026 as well.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

All right. Very helpful. Thank you very much for that. In that context, strong aluminum pricing supply stability on the alumina side price stability. Why not move forward with capacity restarts here now?

Jesse Gary

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Well, that's a good question, Lucas. So, as we've said for a while now, we want to look and make sure that when we do make the decision to bring capacity back online, the market is ready for it. So, for one, we do see strong LME. So that’s a positive and we’ve seen rising and watch premium prices as well over this quarter. But with respect to incremental volume, we would have to go out into the market and source alumina. So there we would be exposed to spot alumina for that new volume that we're bringing on. So, just to be clear, no spot exposure for our existing operations at current levels, but that -- if we were to bring on additional, we'd have to go out and find that alumina in the marketplace and obviously it's spot prices that’s a bit of hurdle.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

I appreciate that color. I'll turn it over for now. Thank you very much.

Jesse Gary

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Thanks, Lucas.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Katja Jancic with BMO Capital. The floor is now open.

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO Capital. The floor is now open

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe just going back to the alumina supply agreements, I think when I look at your filings, you have an agreement that is supposedly valid through the end of this year for 600,000 tons of alumina. Is that just -- does that just roll over or what's the situation with that? Can you talk a little bit about that?

Jesse Gary

Analyst · BMO Capital. The floor is now open

Yes, that contract has been extended now, Katja. So that extends out for a couple of years from now.

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO Capital. The floor is now open

And is that the same terms as it was in the past or any changes there?

Jesse Gary

Analyst · BMO Capital. The floor is now open

Yes, similar terms as what's been there in the past.

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO Capital. The floor is now open

And maybe moving to the value added premiums, I think now is the time when you're negotiating for next year. Any update on that side, how it's looking for next year?

Jesse Gary

Analyst · BMO Capital. The floor is now open

No, as we've seen for the past couple of years, what we call the mating season extends a bit longer into the fall than it used to maybe 5 years ago. So, we're still out there in the market right now negotiating those contracts and expect to have an update on the Q4 call.

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO Capital. The floor is now open

And one last one, if I may, you mentioned that repurposing an industrial asset comes with -- it's a little different than some of the other assets. Can you talk a bit more about that? Like, what are some of the potential challenges in repurposing these types of assets?

Jesse Gary

Analyst · BMO Capital. The floor is now open

Well, I think it's just as simple as I think some of the other transactions in the market, you've seen it's been one data center used for one type of data center application to maybe an AI hyperscale or something like that, where you can just imagine you're turning over a data center building with racks, the server racks, et cetera. Whereas if you have an industrial asset, obviously you used it for its industrial purpose. At [indiscernible], we made aluminum. And so while there are assets that have significant value, like the electrical equipment and power infrastructure, there are other areas of the site that would need to be modified in order to work for such a purpose. And so I think, as we move forward with the process, that's 1 area that the buyers are due diligencing. And we'll need to be evaluated in terms of sort of timing to a transaction.

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO Capital. The floor is now open

So, if I'm understanding correctly, this would be, in a way, a sale of the whole asset potentially.

Jesse Gary

Analyst · BMO Capital. The floor is now open

We haven't settled on any structure, nor have we settled on any transaction yet, Katja, but that would certainly be one potential outcome of the process.

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO Capital. The floor is now open

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question today comes from John Tumazos with Very Independent Research. Your line is now open.

John Tumazos

Analyst · Very Independent Research. Your line is now open

Thank you very much for taking my question.

Jesse Gary

Analyst · Very Independent Research. Your line is now open

Hey, John.

John Tumazos

Analyst · Very Independent Research. Your line is now open

When does the LME-linked contract expire? Who, if you can say, is the supplier? And could you tell us if your alumina costs in Jamaica resemble world averages like what Alcoa or other companies publish?

Jesse Gary

Analyst · Very Independent Research. Your line is now open

Sure, John. Let me try to take those in order. If I miss one, just redirect me. The LME contracts are long-term. They're in place as a variety of them, but all of them are through at least 2026. With respect to the Jamalco cost structure, as we said in the past, we are very excited about this asset. We think its cost structure will ultimately be globally competitive. And what we said, as we implement some of our CapEx programs, we do think it can be a second quartile asset which would put us right in the range of some of our competitors that you’ve mentioned. And we are already underway. We've been at it a year now and getting that cost structure down and certainly looking good in today's market price environment.

John Tumazos

Analyst · Very Independent Research. Your line is now open

Congratulations what you've done with alumina, that was absolutely superb.

Jesse Gary

Analyst · Very Independent Research. Your line is now open

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you all for your questions. [Operator Instructions] Our next question is a follow-up from Lucas Pipe with B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Thank you very much for taking my follow-up question. Just one more on the alumina side. As a percentage of LME, what was it roughly this year? Would it be stable next year or could there be any adjustment given the recent surge in aluminum prices? I want to echo John's comment. Congratulations on the acquisition of Jamalco and the structure of all the contracts you've done. But I wanted to follow-up on this. Thank you.

Jesse Gary

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Sure, Lucas. Yes, I think your question relates to the commercial contracts, whether those could change. And no, those are fixed percentages that were entered into before the current run up, and so they are quite attractive compared to current levels.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Very helpful. Thank you.

Jesse Gary

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Now …

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Sorry.

Jesse Gary

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

No, I was just going to say no readjustment in those contracts. They're fixed.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Thank you for that. Maybe trying to put it all together, obviously you've provided an outlook for Q4 that is still reflecting somewhat weaker price environment. Looking out to Q1 or 22025 EBITDA in the current price environment. Could you help kind of frame up the sensitivity and what the earnings power might look like? I would appreciate your color. Thank you.

Jesse Gary

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Hi, Lucas. So, you all can just go to our sensitivities in the appendix and mark, go ahead and mark whichever of the revenue side or cost side items you want. But just to walk you through it, Lucas, so as you see on page 11, the outlook was based on an LME around 2,400. So with spots above 2,600, that's about $200 per ton of incremental EBITDA, which is about $90 million of incremental EBITDA on a run rate annualized basis. And then Midwest premium as well has risen from these levels. In the outlook, it's about $425 per ton. It's up a couple pennies from there, so that's maybe another $20 million or so. So at spots you got an additional $100 million or so, in annualized EBITDA from what's in the guide. So, you can take that $25 million a quarter, it puts you above $100 million quarterly run rate EBITDA.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

I appreciate all the additional color. Jesse, to you and the team, continued best of luck.

Jesse Gary

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Thanks a lot, Lucas.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your questions. There are no longer questions in queue, so I'll pass the conference back to the management team for any further or closing remarks.

Jesse Gary

Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open

Thank you, operator, and thanks to everyone for joining the call. We really appreciate all the questions, as always, and look forward to talking to you in the new year. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.