Earnings Labs

Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

Q1 2017 Earnings Call· Tue, Apr 25, 2017

$59.04

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for standing by and welcome to the First Quarter 2017 Earnings. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session; instructions will be given to you at that time. [Operator Instructions] I'll now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Peter Trpkovski. Please go ahead.

Peter Trpkovski

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Thank you, Perky. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the conference call. I'm joined today by Mike Bless, Century's President and Chief Executive Officer; Erich Squire, Senior Vice President of Finance; and Shelly Harrison, Senior Vice President of Finance and Treasurer. After our prepared remarks, we will take your questions. As a reminder, today's presentation is available on our Web site www.centuryaluminum.com. We use our Web site as a means of disclosing material information about the company after complying with Regulation FD. I would also like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements related to future events and expectations, including our expected future financial performance, results of operations and financial condition. These forward-looking statements involve important known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in our forward-looking statements. Please review the forward-looking statements disclosure in today's slides and press release for a full discussion of these risks and uncertainties. In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today's presentation and on our Web site. With that, I'll hand the call over to Mike.

Mike Bless

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

Thanks Pete and thanks to all of you for joining us this afternoon. If we could turn to Slide 4 please, I will give a quick update on the last couple of months. As you can see all the operations performed well through the quarter and into April, operating efficiencies have been consistent at favorable levels and importantly controllable cost have been equal to or better than our expectations. And I will give you some more detail on the operations in just a couple of minutes. We see some positive developments for Century in commodity prices as you have seen the LME prices up nicely over the last couple of months and as we expected, alumina prices are down. Further Midwest U.S. energy prices have been supportive, have continued to be supportive and importantly the MISO capacity price has recently fallen significantly. These trends will more fully impact our results over the coming quarters and Erich will give you some detail on that in just a couple of minutes. Putting of trends in the pricing environment together with the cost control, we think these resulted in a favorable financial performance for us this quarter. Shelly will give you some more detail on the sector fundamentals, but in summary I can say the demand has remained good in the regions that are particularly important to us especially like the U.S. and in Europe. The issue remain supply and of course, the situation in China in particular. On trade as we talked with you about in February, the WTO gate has been brought, it is absolutely clear to us that this administration intends to stand up to China on over production and we believe other governments around the world are also working hard on this matter. There has been plenty of public…

Shelly Harrison

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

Thanks Mike. Okay. Let's move on to Slide 5, please and I will take you through the current industry environment. The cash LME price averaged $18.50 per ton in Q1 which reflects some 8% increase over Q4. In the last month, aluminum prices have climbed as high as $19.62 per ton and are currently right around $19.40. Delivery premiums in both the U.S. and Europe were reasonably stable in Q1. Retail premiums averaged just under $0.10 per pound in the U.S. and $147 per ton in Europe and premiums continued to trade near these levels today. As it's usual for this time of the year, the aluminum market was a meaningful surplus during Q1, with much of Chinese demand shut down for New Year's holiday. CRU reported excess supply of 660,000 tons globally in Q1 including more than a million tons of excess supply from China. So consistent with past quarters, we continue to see Chinese producers oversupplying the market, which should otherwise be in a strong deficit position. In the first quarter of 2017, global aluminum demand would rate at almost 6% as compared to the year ago quarter. We saw 8% year-over-year demand growth from China and 3% in North America driven by strength and the building of construction sector. Year-over-year global production growth was up 9.1% in Q1 driven almost entirely by Chinese start ups and restarts. We talked in depth last quarter about the trade case that the U.S. has filed against China at the WTO, which has since been joined by Japan, Russia, Canada and the EU. As expected this process is going to take some time to play out, but we were pleased to hear that trade and overcapacity specifically with regard to the aluminum industry were an important part of the discussion during…

Mike Bless

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

Thanks Shelly. If we can turn to Slide 6 please as promised I will just make a couple of quick comments on the operations before turning you over to Erich to go through the financials. As you see safety results here were mixed during the quarter, Sebree has continued its excellent performance, the guys have put up a really admirable record at Sebree and we couldn't be more proud of them. Taken a bit of a backward step at Mount Holly and at Grundartangi as you see, this is a remainder that gravity really works against you when it comes to safety and a remainder that you need to stay aggressive, proactive and paranoid in this most important area, if we are going to accomplish the consistent improvement that we demand. Moving down the page, production and efficiencies as you can see indicative of the stable environment I described at the beginning of my remarks. Controllable cost as I said inline with our expectations, let me just deconstruct these numbers for you a little bit, so you can have a better appreciation as to what's going on in the cost side. As Hawesville, first and foremost, you see good performance there. Labor and maintenance, spending down nicely, power cost down as well. Going the other way, we are seeing carbon cost trend upward and we expect to see this trend continue at all the plants over the next couple of quarters as global calcium, coke prices are coming up. As Sebree about half of that increase that you see is also carbon and other raw materials mostly carbon, the other half is labor and maintenance costs that was from a really low base in Q4, so we don't see any worsening trends there. At Grundartangi, power represents all of that cost increase. As you remember, we pay for our power in Iceland as a percentage of the LME price, so what you are seeing there really is just the -- it's just the rice in the metal price. And then, Mount Holly also power represent that entire increase. This again emphasizes why we need to solve this problem, this trend won't represent on its own. And with that, I will pass you on to Erich.

Erich Squire

Analyst

Thanks Mike. Let's turn to the Slide 7 of the presentation and I can walk you through a couple of high level points on Q1 results and then give more detailed look at adjusted EBITDA and cash flow on the following two slides. On a consolidated basis quarter-over-quarter global shipments were up 1.5% and net sales were up 7.5% reflecting the favorable market pricing. Both U.S. and Iceland [indiscernible] pricing were favorable inline with market movements. Again, we made pretty closely to LME and regional premiums on our two month lag basis, so the increase in transaction prices we saw starting in February, will come to our results in Q2. Value added product premiums in the U.S. remain depressed and we expect this to continue well in the 2017. I will speak more to value added products when we look at the quarter-over-quarter detail. Looking at operating profit, adjusted EBITDA was $22 million which is up $10 million quarter-over-quarter. EBITDA adjustment this quarter were related to mark-to-market on aluminum forward sales and adjustments to the carrying values of inventories. Forward aluminum sales are predominantly composed of 5100 metric tons of month through year-end with the sale price of around $1700 a ton. Looking finally at liquidity before we go deeper into EBITDA and cash flow, we have no outstanding borrowings under our revolver other than letters of credit. We ended the quarter with $126 million in cash and $100 million of availability under our revolving credit facilities. We will see $25 million increase of revolver availability starting in Q2 as letters of credit in connection with the completed annual MISO power capacity auction for our Kentucky plants were returned in April. I will speak to the results of that auction momentarily. Let's turn now to Slide 8, and I can…

Mike Bless

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

We appreciate everyone joining us this afternoon and I think Pete now, we can open it up for questions.

Peter Trpkovski

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Sure, thanks, Mike. Perky, if you could go ahead and facilitate the Q&A session please.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Brett Levy with Loop Capital. Please go ahead.

Brett Levy

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

Hey, Mike. Hey guys.

Mike Bless

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

Hi, Brett.

Brett Levy

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

You guys provided a lot of reasons to be cheerful whether it's alumina or other costs flowing through from Q1 to Q2 to even Q3, is there any plan to issue official guidance for either 2Q or the full year as you kind of get further into the second quarter. And then, I think in terms of like hedging and other metrics, is there any plan to release additional details?

Mike Bless

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

Sure, Brett. On the updating of the guidance as you said, Pete really gave the only delta that we would use right now, which is the reduction in the U.S. power cost and he gave you the metric $35 per ton OpEx. So alumina price right now, if you look back to the price that we'd assumed in the -- embedded in the guidance “We put in the slides in Feb or right around there,” so there is really no delta there in terms of that guidance. Anything else we probably wait, we've not because we're stuck on a schedule, Brett but we -- if my memory serves most of the last couple of years and had enough change that we've updated that guidance in the July call and we will provide some data there, but really power is the only significant change.

Brett Levy

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

Got it. And then, I think in terms of the like capital markets and opportunities and that sort of thing, markets were open, coal prices are going down, maturity dates are coming up, are you starting to think at least a little bit about what the next steps would be in terms of putting long-term assets against long-term liabilities?

Mike Bless

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

Well, I mean I'll let Shelly talk about the way we generally look at beginning to prepare that at least the thought process and then the real process around the refinancing of the existing bond. We got a couple of years get to the maturity date and as you say call prices in front of us. The only point I would make and your question wasn't suggested in this direction is, we are not the kind of -- we would not look to put capital of any sort on the balance sheet warehouse capital I suppose is a term that sometimes used just because the markets are conductive, much of the opposite that as far as we're concerned our job is to run as lean from a capital structure standpoint as we can prudently do, I mean Shelly do you want to talk about…

Shelly Harrison

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

Yes. Our current bond, they mature in 2021, though to do something now would be quite expensive. We definitely look at it all the time, I would think that later this year, early next year as when that activity will really start picking up but we're absolutely looking at those markets.

Mike Bless

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

If you look at the breakdown now, it's not very attractive given the call premium.

Brett Levy

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

Got it. And then, last one relates really to Iceland. I think that you guys have sort of done your best despite kind of an unconducive Icelandic, economic political stance to continue to grow and expand, but not kind of getting the way of what the Green party or whatever going on over there. Can you talk about kind of your ability to or your plans to add capacity or what you're specifically doing to debottleneck or add a little bit more production out of Iceland over the next couple of years and expenditures associated with that?

Mike Bless

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

Yes, sure. Brett, as we said, so the simple answer is the capacity Green program continues and we'll continue and we're at the point now as we said where we're getting closed to the -- I'll use the term theoretical maximum amperage, which you can put into this cell -- this cell design and thus, you can get out is the direct correlation in and out as you know. And so we're within that at this point in time sort of 5% of that theoretical maximum now. As I think what we talked about before we are running some R&D that speaks to with the same thought changed certain characteristics of the design like the lining in the cap without getting technical to enable sort of another surge on top of that, that might enable you to get another sort of 5%, 6%, 7% in addition to that 5%, 6%. But, in terms of the first 5%, 6% chunk, which is another sort of 15,000, 20,000 tons that will come as we said over the next couple of years. I think that program should end i.e., deliver that final volume sometime in the next kind of three-ish years and the spending to answer your question is relatively modest. It fits within the envelope that we've been spending at Grundartangi over the last couple of years, Brett which is in the sort of maintenance CapEx at Grundartangi is in the sort of $6 million to $8 million, $5 million to $8 million and then on top of that, you can kind of put another $5 million to $6 million to $7 million on an average base depending on the years. Some years are going to be lumpy because you got to order a new piece of high voltage equipment or something, so it will be $8 million or $9 million, $10 million some years for the capacity creep that will be less than that. But, that's kind of the program to continue to A, and get more metal units and B, of course every metal unit leverages the fixed cost structure so you are driving down your OpEx. In addition, as we talked about last time, when we continue to look for the right entry point in specific project to de-commoditize fancy word, Grundartangi's business, i.e. build the value-added cash house, and that's something that we're still looking at closely, again an improvement in the trade environment would be conducive to us reaching the final -- reaching the goal line, I'm pulling the trigger on something like that.

Brett Levy

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

All right, Shelly and guys, thanks very much. I'll pass the baton.

Mike Bless

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

Thanks Brett.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

David Gagliano

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions and congratulations on a very strong results and solid outlook.

Mike Bless

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Thanks David.

Peter Trpkovski

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Thank you.

David Gagliano

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

The offline capacity I believe it's at Hawesville, I was wondering if you could just walk us through the analysis there, what you are thinking about in terms of -- I know you talked about from a qualitative perspective, but I'm wondering, first of all, if you mind, was it a 300 million pounds that you could bring back on there?

Mike Bless

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Sure. So it's, yes, we think it's 150,000 tons that you are pretty closed there. Let me talk about kind of just facts and then perhaps to your question some of the major facts in the decision process. So it's three of the five lines are down, each line is 50,000 tons to 150,000 tons, on those three lines, one as you recall is incapable of making purity. It produces P1020 only and standard grade only. And then, the other two lines are capable of producing purity as you know we're making less purity this year you've seen our estimates have been actuals for as Erich took you through, product premiums down this year because of the excessive supply in those sectors from imports. So number one consideration would be what products could we make there to second consideration obviously the metal prices obvious, it would be alumina pricing because we have to go procure alumina for that capacity, we're only -- we've only procured alumina for the -- in the U.S. for the operating capacity which is half of Mount Holly and 40% of Hawesville. And then, other than that as we've talked about in the past, it's important to remember, it just goes into the IRR calculation here in the breakeven, or however, you want to describe the financial analysis, there is a start-up cost here to be borne, I'll call it one-time cost and the biggest issue at Hawesville is in addition at Mount Holly are the sales themselves. So we've been unlike using this word, but I'll use it for brevity, we've been cannibalizing sales in the Hawesville in the three curtailed lines every time I sell into the two lines that are producing sales as you know they fail on average every 4.5 to 5 years. And so we would have to spend the money to rebuild those sales in the line or the lines that we brought back in addition at Mount Holly, there is some work that would have to be done in the bakeshop there to refurbish without getting technical, the bake ovens themselves, the walls that separate them, that still cut through walls. But ultimately that the largest issue here as I mumble through is metal price and there it's really not to circle back, but it's really all begins and ends here -- it's our assessment of -- and more importantly the real actions in the trade environment here as we have some serious movement there and we took a view that the market can now trade based on the true fundamentals of demand and legitimate supply, you could see a very strong case to bring that capacity back on really soon.

David Gagliano

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Okay. And then just to -- just to round up that part of the conversation, you mentioned start-up costs. I don't think you quantified that, can you quantify the start-up cost?

Mike Bless

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

It depends, David. Without trying to be scurrilous, it depends on size -- I'll give you a range. It depends specifically on where we are, at what point in time i.e., how many sales we have grabbed and cannibalized again, to use that word again. But it's $5 million plus per line, it's kind of in the $5 million to $6 million to $7 million to $8 million, again depending upon facts and circumstances, depending upon which like we restarted first, the lot of technical determinations in that, but it's real money, it's millions of millions of million dollar per line and when I say line again per 50,000 tons of capacity at Mount Holly and the same math for -- I'm sorry at Hawesville, thank you, Shelly and the same math just a little bit bigger, but you should be talking about 115,000 ton line at Mount Holly. So they are big numbers.

David Gagliano

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Okay. And then just a last metric to finish it off, if you just give us a range on reasonable cash cost assumption, say range for Hawesville and Mount Holly.

Mike Bless

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

So you're talking about right now or…?

David Gagliano

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Well, for the capacity that you bring, I'm assuming it's the same.

Mike Bless

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

It would be so, okay, I understand your question. So we've never broken out obviously plant-by-plant for obvious competitive reasons. But, if we go looking at the U.S. average the incremental -- please when I finish talking, tell me if I got -- if I've answered the question that you asked. The incremental OpEx would be lower because obviously you're not -- you've got a lot of the fixed cost that you're bearing already so that marginal cost would be lower than the cost that you have right now. Now the commodities -- it depend on a point in time where alumina was trading, where coke was trading, but if all else being equal, if those commodities were the same then the cost should be lower because you're leveraging your fixed costs.

David Gagliano

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Okay. All right that's helpful. And then just one you kind of annoying question, but I think it matters given directionally where it looks like we're heading here, what is the right diluted share count to use when trying to positive on the…

Mike Bless

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

You never asked annoying questions there, Pete, I'm going to -- so we use we have -- we have common shares of course and we have preferred shares which are other than and in fact they don't vote -- I think early as maybe they count like this really common shares, that's what they are from an economic standpoint in our strong opinion that's what -- so go ahead Pete please.

Peter Trpkovski

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

All right, thanks, Mike. All end we are just shy of 95 million in total shares.

Mike Bless

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Includes the preferred?

Peter Trpkovski

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Correct.

David Gagliano

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Right, when you swing too positive, is that change at all?

Mike Bless

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

I was talking GAAP versus economic, yes, sorry go ahead.

Shelly Harrison

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Yes. From a management perspective we always look at it over keep 95 million shares, we are always with preferred shares. When you are looking at the accounting, you're correct that they are included when you swing positive they are not included when you are negative, it's [indiscernible].

Mike Bless

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

It's GAAP, but with all do respect again from an economic standpoint, those shares are always diluting the shares -- they are always there and our opinion where we report our GAAP profit already or report a GAAP loss so that's why when we do our adjusted EPS, the denominator, they always includes all those shares.

David Gagliano

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Got it. Thanks.

Mike Bless

Analyst · David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Novid Rassouli with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead.

Novid Rassouli

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Hi guys, Novid from Cowen. Just a couple of quick questions, Michael, you'd mentioned that the WTO timeline have been delayed, I'm just wondering what the next signpost is to watch for with the Dutch trade case?

Mike Bless

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

It's hard to -- if there is no strict -- well, there are certain timelines that are noted in the WTO rules. At this point in time, Novid not try to duck it, it's really hard to answer that because at this point in time, the U.S. would have to begin to work that case that's not a technical term again and we believe it's not just our belief that the first step has to be the conformation of the President nominee for U.S. trade rep, which when you just read the public domain looks like it should be take place here over the coming weeks. So we're encouraged by that. We've been talking to the USTR folks. Obviously, there's been a whole team there right now, but they're missing a leader and that -- it really is USTR here that is mandate and too responsible for prosecuting the WTO case. So after that, there is the consultation period about which we talked before that should start several months and if that period is unsuccessful in reaching an agreement then as we said before the cases needs to be litigated in that, that can take quite some time, it measured in years.

Novid Rassouli

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Got it. And one more on the trade front, we've heard that the Trump administration may be looking to target aluminum with respect to national security, the way they are recently dealing with steel section 232. So I just wondered if you could speak to the potential for that what exactly is the process, the logistics and maybe what you think your exposure as far as applications that are sensitive to national security.

Mike Bless

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Sure. So I'll take your questions in order, so you can just go look at the steel case, there is a study period that's mandated under section 232 and that's what going on right now in steel and the same would be at the end of which remedies can be imposed by the President. In aluminum, we really are without being -- trying to be unbiased about it, we really are the example here. As you know we produce in essence all of the -- we're the only producer of high purity metal, we are the only producer of high purity metal now in the U.S., the rest of the purity in the U.S. market is from foreign sources, mostly one smelter in the Persian Gulf. And so this would be one that really -- I don't like to say would -- should benefit us greatly because it would -- if remedies were imposed, it would greatly increase the value of our production capacity in the U.S. especially for the highest grades of metal P0202, which is generally the purest grade of metal that's produced in trades on the market. So that could be very interesting one for us -- I would say we still believe that the prosecution of whether to consultation or ultimately litigation of the WTO cases is necessary here because that's what cuts off the problematic source, right, that's -- it aims at the excess production that's propped up by the illegal subsidy, but that's the only solution that's going to give a long-term relief to this problem. Other things can do things in the short-term and we welcome them, but really, the prosecution of the WTO case is what's required here.

Novid Rassouli

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Right, the financing side basically.

Mike Bless

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Precisely.

Novid Rassouli

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Okay. And my last question, so your view on alumina prices that would head lower, you guys have been correct on that, I think you mentioned on the call that you expect them to continue lower. I'm just wondering how realistic it is for aluminum prices to remain near the current range of alumina prices or continuing lower and there is an expected deficit -- sorry, expected surplus for aluminum this year.

Mike Bless

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Yes, sure. That's a good question. So, look this was not great foresight, we just looked at as Shelly said restart in China refineries and two, look at the -- they basically are been the price in China. And one can predict with at least over the short-term with some measure of if not accuracy, at least confidence. So we think there is a little bit given all those factors, we think there is a little bit -- it's not going to be in our opinion and it can't be -- and perhaps it gets us to the second part of your question, which I'll address in a moment. There is a little bit further to fall in and going to be another $50 in our opinion. But if you look at before getting to the balances, if you look at sort of where the third-ish, deep third quarter, bad third quarter tile smelter, pardon me, refinery is, it's in Pete and Shelly -- the high 200s and so we're not quite there yet. If you look -- you're talking and think about the relationship between the alumina price and the aluminum price.

Novid Rassouli

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Yes.

Mike Bless

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

I mean, we're back right now, I haven't done a long division, but just doing it in my head 305 divided by -- it's like 15 point -- these guys are shouting at me, 15 in change, right, 15.5% give or take and that traditionally -- traditionally other than the last year, year-and-half has been sort of where alumina has traded and so when you put all that together Shelly rated a good example of very large refinery that do really start here in the Atlantic Basin, which is obviously positive for us. We think that alumina can still give a little bit and metal to your point at a 1.5 million tons of surplus, that's one thing, but that assumes that Chinese capacity continues to come on as expected.

Novid Rassouli

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Great. Thanks so much.

Mike Bless

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions in queue. Please continue.

Mike Bless

Analyst · Loop Capital. Please go ahead

Thank you. We very much appreciate everybody's time this afternoon. And we look forward to talking with you over the coming months. Thank you so much.