Earnings Labs

Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 21, 2013

$59.34

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the fourth quarter 2012 earnings conference call. At this time all phone lines are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, today's conference is also being recorded. I'll turn the call over to your opening speaker for today, Enrique DeAnda. Please go ahead.

Enrique DeAnda

Management

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the conference call. Before we begin I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements related to future events and expectations including our expected future financial performance, results of operations and financial conditions. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in our forward-looking statements. Please review the forward-looking statements disclosure in today's slides and press release or a full discussion of these risks and uncertainties. In addition, have included some non-GAAP financial measures in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today’s presentation and on our website at centuryaluminum.com. I’d now like to introduce Michael Bless, Century's President and Chief Executive Officer.

Michael Bless

President

Thanks Enrique and thanks for everybody for joining us this afternoon. If we could turn to slide four please, I'd like to give you just a brief review of the major events in 2012. Okay, first and foremost. I am proud to say that the company recorded the best safety performance in its history and this was at each of our facilities. This takes a tremendous amount of hard work as those of you familiar with industrial safety now; this kind of performance requires focus each and every day. This results is especially noteworthy at Hawesville where our people have been working in an environment of some uncertainty due to the power situation there and I'll talk about that obviously in detail in just a moment. I'd also like to note that this result was the result of great cooperation and ownership from our represented workforces and I'd like to salute them for that. Turning to Hawesville. As you remember, we returned the plant to stability in the latter part of 2011 going into 2012. Got a great management team at this plant now with the right mix of skills and experiences. We saw improvement through 2012 in all areas of the plant; it's especially noteworthy in the pot rooms and in the rotting shop. We're now working at staying ahead in housekeeping and maintenance which are obviously the key to plant stability. Importantly here, our people are feeling a great deal of pride in being part of the well run plant. These efforts resulted in significant cost reductions across the plant in each and every department throughout 2012. Just to give you a sense, excluding power, if you were to take the power out of the cost base and as I'll talk about in a minute, the power cost…

Shelly Harrison

Management

All right, thanks Mike. If you turn to slide seven please, I'll take you through the company's financial performance for the quarter. Shipments for Q4 were down 1.5% at Hawesville and 4% at Mt. Holly primarily due to timing of deliveries. As you'd expect, we saw the benefit of these shipments reflected in our January results. For Iceland, we have direct shipments of approximately 3,500 tons in Q4. If you include that amount along with the tow in volumes, you'll see that Iceland shipments were up 1% Q4 over Q3. Putting this all together, global shipments for the company were down about 1% in the quarter. The average cash LME price was up 4% Q4 over Q3, but on a one month lag basis, the LME price was up almost 7%. When you look at our realized unit prices in the US, they were up 5% quarter-over-quarter. This reflects the fact that we do have some sales in the US that price on a current month basis. In Iceland, our realized unit prices were up 6% which reflects the impact of the tolling structure we have at Grundartangi. Moving on to the income statement data, net sales were up 4% Q4 over Q3, the income or increase in the aluminum price drove net sales up by $16 million or 5% but slightly lower shipments offset a portion of this impact during the quarter. Adjusted operating income increased $20 million from Q3 to Q4 primarily due to higher revenues. On the cost side, with our higher LME links, alumina and power cost of $5 million and US power cost were up roughly $2 million primarily due to the maintenance outage at a facility that's (indiscernible) Mt. Holly that Mike mentioned. Moving down the income statement. We had a quarterly adjusted loss…

Michael Bless

President

Thanks Shelly, if we can turn to slide 13 please. As Shelly said, I'll just focus here on the major things that we'll be working on due to balance of 2013 and then we'll get right to your questions. First and foremost again on safety, we've got a real commitment to continuous improvement throughout the company here. There is a real effort just to stay even in this area, the proverbial gravity works really against here and so we're focused every day. We've got efforts drilling down to specific areas of focus for each department and each plant for safety improvement and we're also investing judiciously in outside experts where we think they can add some real value. At Hawesville, and as I said earlier, we are absolutely convinced that this plant can produce attractive returns at market power rates. So we're using all efforts right now to pursue a plan to get that plant to market. At Ravenswood, we remain absolutely committed to restarting this plant. As I said, we've had great support from Governor Tomblin of West Virginia and other state leaders and this support combined with the developments in US power markets about which I have spoken should provide the basis for a restart and a significant life for this plant. At Grundartangi, we're very focused on the two large capital projects bringing those both in on time and on budget, first at the plant itself, the hot metal capacity expansion and second, the restart of the anode plant in the Netherlands. Last, at Helguvik we're absolutely determined to assemble a package of power to enable this project to restart. As you remember, about halfway through of 2012 we announced that we had reached an agreement in principal with one of the two power suppliers on headline terms and we've been working with them and continue to work with them on working out the complex details to round out that contract. With the other supplier, we spent quite a bit of time and continue to working on discussing the terms of the new power station that they'll be building to support the Helguvik project. And with that, I think Shelly, Enrique, we can take questions.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). Our first question is from the line of Kuni Chen with CRT Capital Group.

Kuni Chen - CRT Capital Group

Analyst · Kuni Chen with CRT Capital Group

Just to start off, obviously the volume expectations at Grundartangi continue to be pretty positive here, can you just talk about how that ramps up through the year, kind of sequentially?

Michael Bless

President

I think Kuni just thinking it through, I don’t have it in front of me, but I know I had a project; it's going to be more backend loaded as we create the conditions to start ramping up the amperage here. Just to elaborate, what we're not doing is adding any new production cells. So we're staying with the footprint we have now and to over simplify what we're really doing is just cranking up the amperage we need, as I said larger anodes in order to do that, we need some refurbishments for example the rodding shop in order to accommodate the transfer of those larger rodded anodes things like that. So I would say, Shelly please correct me if I wrong, more backend loaded this year in terms of the ramp. Since 2013 portion of it, Shelly correctly said Kuni. We're going to see that the more meaningful additional tons in '14 and '15.

Shelly Harrison

Management

That’s right, a very modest increase in 2013 and then you'll really start to see the impact over the next few years.

Kuni Chen - CRT Capital Group

Analyst · Kuni Chen with CRT Capital Group

Okay. Got you. And I guess just as a follow-up on the Big Rivers issue, I think you've talked about it in the past, seeking a 30% reduction in your power costs, by going to the spot market. Now, you know, in light of the fact that they are looking to raise rates, something on the order of 20% this year, plus you have the announcement from the other smelter in the region, can you give us some characterization of where you are in the negotiations? Are you guys miles apart? Give us some color there.

Michael Bless

President

Good question, so let me take a step back. That 30% reduction Kuni to which you referred is the difference between on the one hand the power rate that we're paying right now under the power contract with the Big Rivers as you correctly identified as the current supplier and the market price. So the market price doesn't change based on any request that Big Rivers makes to the public service commission for a rate increase. Those two are completely independent, that’s part of the issue here. What happened is, when we terminated our power contract in August, Big Rivers necessarily, just to remind you, Big Rivers, is a cooperative thus in essence a non-profit entity. Their revenues have to match their expenses. And so, when we gave them notice that our load was going away, our load is roughly 35% of their total load, a little bit more than that, 38 if I recall. They had to prepare a rate case which they filed, this is what you're referring on the 20% and apply to the public service commission to raise rates on the other rate payers in order to make up for the Hawesville load that’s going to leave their system in August of 2013. So, the two facts that you pointed out are correct but they are totally different things. Now, the last point that you raised I'll address, the other smelter in the region is about 50-60 miles away from Hawesville, gave their own termination notice, was just in the middle of January if I recall Kuni and so, all else being equal, the expectation is, in fact they’ve said it quite publicly that Big Rivers will have to again go to the public service commission and in essence or in practice, increase their request for a rate increase given that now in aggregate 70% of the load in that system will be leaving their system. So, hope that made sense. Really, your facts are right, but two completely separate things. The market price hasn’t changed at all. It's been bumping along at about the same rate for the past at least year or so.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of David Gagliano with Barclays.

David Gagliano - Barclays Capital

Analyst · David Gagliano with Barclays

I have a few questions with regards to page 11 in the slide deck, the 2013 item. First of all I want to clarify one thing. Did you see strip out the premium to calculate the cash cost range?

Shelly Harrison

Management

We did. These are net of premiums that you truly can line up with the LME reported price and they are apples to apples.

David Gagliano - Barclays Capital

Analyst · David Gagliano with Barclays

And what is the assumed premium in that number, just so I know?

Shelly Harrison

Management

It's between right around $0.10 for the full year.

David Gagliano - Barclays Capital

Analyst · David Gagliano with Barclays

And then just and this may be covered elsewhere and I apologize if it is. The shipment, the can you give us the 2012 actuals for Hawesville, Mount Holly and Iceland shipments, as well as the actuals for US and Iceland cash costs in 2012?

Michael Bless

President

So if you go to the back of the financial information as follows, the verbiage in the earnings release, you'll get part of that, you'll get shipments by quarter for the last eight quarters in Iceland that’s distinct from the US. We don’t traditionally breakout in the US Hawesville versus Month Holly and because it's just one geographic pool there of revenue and we haven't traditionally broken out cash cost by plant either.

David Gagliano - Barclays Capital

Analyst · David Gagliano with Barclays

Okay. I'm just trying to get a feel for on the cash cost side. And what do those numbers represent on a year-over-year basis, on a percentage basis maybe or anything like that for the US and Iceland.

Michael Bless

President

When you say what do they represent…?

David Gagliano - Barclays Capital

Analyst · David Gagliano with Barclays

In terms of percentage increase or decrease.

Shelly Harrison

Management

Obviously a big piece of it is LME dependent so you'll have to adjust for that. Significant improvement as Mike mentioned already in the power cost at Mt. Holly, you'll see that embedded in the current year.

Michael Bless

President

The carbon price is down, just to go through them in both geographic regions and Iceland on the finished anode side if you will, and in the US principally because of reductions in the prices of calcined coke, pitch marches to its tune to a certain extent. Power as Shelly already covered, labor costs are up sort of normal amount per CBAs basically inflationary. So you will see them down in both. I wouldn’t want to quote David off the top of my head as Shelly said in LME consistent percentage, but they're both down in absolute.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). Our next question from Brett levy with Jefferies and Company. Brett levy - Jefferies & Company: First off, and I ask this every quarter, given uncertain levels of production in 2013, sort of what level of hedging --?

Michael Bless

President

Yes, so we got no hedges on right now at all, no reported sales and the last of our production contracts expired in June of last year of course. So we've got nothing on the books right now. Brett levy - Jefferies & Company: And then the maturity [of the eights] [ph], obviously it seems like a lot of the different parts of your business are getting kicked down the road in terms of like decision making in terms of the Helguvik power contracts at Hawesville, et cetera. Can you talk a little bit about kind of what your thinking is given that the capital markets are very open right now?

Shelly Harrison

Management

Sure, and we would agree with you, the capital markets are very open right now and we do anticipate a refinancing in the near term. As you likely know right now, we're waiting for the filing of the 10-K really before we can pursue anything for marketing purposes, we need that document. But beyond that, as you know, as we get closer to the call dates, the cost of redeeming those bonds actually comes down. So, during that time, we're taking a look at all those different instruments that are available to us and as I said, we anticipate that we will do something on that refinancing in the near term. Brett levy - Jefferies & Company: And then at Helguvik, you said you are optimistic that something might happen in 2012. It seems like you're sort of reached an impasse, are you optimistic that something will happen in terms of reaching favorable agreement 2013?

Michael Bless

President

Yes, I wouldn’t say we were optimistic and we got it wrong. So that is correct. I wouldn’t characterize it Brett as an impasse. An impasse, at least the way I would define it is, you got two parties with mutually exclusive positions. It hasn’t come to that all; it's just the complexity of the problems. Remember that the issue here primarily is around the financial condition of both of these power companies post-crash, post-crisis in Iceland. Capital controls remain on despite the fact that the sovereign has continued to improve in its credit rating and its credit outlook as you know. But there is some still deeply embedded issues in each of those power companies which are both highly levered and so, that’s kind of what we're dealing. So I wouldn’t describe it as an impasse. We agree on the problem and we're just trying various ways to try to fix it. So the last part of your question I guess, I am going to again say, I hope I don’t have to sit here a year from now, I don’t expect to sit here a year from now and make the same comment. We do see for a variety of reasons conditions, coming together form some time during this year. I wouldn’t like to predict when during the year but we're reasonably confident that something ought to get done one way or another this year and get that project back up and running. Right now we've decided to close down for the winter, but we're hoping here is as early in 2013 as possible to get it running again. Brett levy - Jefferies & Company: And then the last one and this is sort of just high in the sky, I know you guys think of yourselves as a global company and you should, would you look perhaps as a bargaining chip or perhaps just because it’s a good idea economically, would you look at pursuing a mid-east project?

Michael Bless

President

Well first and foremost, if you mean as a bargaining chip vis-à-vis the other situations with which we're dealing on power there, we have a firm view that each of these, just like any investment at which we look as a different cost of capital, a different risk profile, each of these is a different situation and none, as far as we're concerned, are mutually exclusive. So, never from that perspective. I guess I would never say no in terms of a mid-east project but Brett, we would really have to look at ourselves and ask, what do we bring, what does this bring to our share owners, what do we bring to that project, how can we get value out of it for our share owners that given our size and given who we are and what we do well in our opinion any way and so I guess that’s a long winded way of saying, I would wait up at night waiting for us to announce a Persian Gulf project but we would certainly look.

Operator

Operator

And speakers at this time we have no further questions in the queue.

Michael Bless

President

We appreciate again everybody joining us this afternoon and we look forward to reporting first quarter to you around the third week of so in April.