Sean Keohane
Analyst · Northcoast Research.
Yes. So I guess a couple of things, Kevin. First it is important while the majority of our joint ventures are in China, we do have a fairly significant joint venture in the Czech Republic, would be in those minority interest numbers that you're talking about, but your point around the majority of our JVs being in China that is the case. So a couple of things, I think China in terms of the macro environment is definitely more challenging. I mean, we've seen the headline numbers in terms of GDP slowing and we know that overall automotive production has been really weak and they had 16 straight months of year-over-year declines. And if you look at in total for 2019, I think the industry declined somewhere close to 10% if my memory is correct here. So it was a pretty challenging environment in terms of overall auto production. And then, the impact of the trade friction, in particular on – sort of industrial sectors, I think is something that we've been battling here. So the environment hasn't been great. That being said we are still quite profitable in China, even in this environment. So I think that's an important point and one that I think speaks to our business, our assets and we know based on publicly available information around the carbon black industry that's not really the case for the industry. So we really do feel like we have strong assets and business team there. But the environment, no doubt is weak. Now, we're starting to see a couple of positive signals here in auto production in both November and December, those turned positive, now they were off-weak comps, but they turned positive. So that is encouraging and we'll have to see how that develops here. And then secondly, the trade dispute, at least with the Phase 1 deal in place, as that begin to remove some of the uncertain sentiment that's been kind of clouding things. So these would be positive near-term developments, but I think we'll have to see and of course the whole thing is a bit confounded by the uncertainty around the impact of coronavirus. So it's a dynamic situation here, but we continue to, I think, manage it well and given the long-term, in terms of how much of the world tires China produces, the feedstock situation in terms of coaltar being pretty much in balance with carbon black production needs, the continued environmental ratcheting in China over time, we think that and having the largest car park in the world, these things that are right, long-term fundamentals and we don't feel that those have changed. So we've got a saddle in the near term here.