Earnings Labs

Cabot Corporation (CBT)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 6, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q4 2018 Cabot Earnings Conference Call. Currently at this time, all participants are in the listen-only mode. Later we will conduct the question and answer session and instruction will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions]. Also as a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to your host to Steve Delahunt. Please go ahead.

Steven Delahunt

Analyst

Good afternoon. I’d like to welcome you to the Cabot Corporation earnings teleconference. With me today are Sean Keohane, CEO and President; and Erica McLaughlin, Senior Vice President and CFO. Last night, we released results for our fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2018, copies of which are posted in the Investor Relations section of our website. The slide deck that accompanies this call is also available on the Investor Relations portion of our website and will be available in conjunction with the replay of the call. During this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements about our expected future operational and financial performance. Each forward-looking statement is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in such statements. Additional information regarding these factors appears under the heading Forward-Looking Statements in the press release we issued last night and in our last annual report on Form 10-K for fiscal year ended September 30, 2017, that is filed with the SEC and available on the company’s website. In order to provide greater transparency regarding our operating performance, we refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that involve adjustments to GAAP results. Any non-GAAP financial measures presented should not be considered to be an alternative to financial measures required by GAAP. Any non-GAAP financial measures referenced on this call are reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure in a table at the end of our earnings release issued last night and available in the Investors section of our website. Also as we do typically here, I’d like to remind you that over the next several weeks in connection with divesting and restricted stock awards issued under a long-term incentives equity program, offices of the companies will be selling shares to pay tax and other obligations related to their awards. I will now turn the call over to Sean Keohane who will discuss the key highlights of the company’s performance. Erica McLaughlin will review the business segments and corporate financial details. Following this, Sean will provide closing comments and open the floor to questions. Sean?

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Thank you, Steve. Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. We are very pleased with our fiscal 2018 performance as we delivered a record adjusted earnings per share of $4.03 presenting a 14% increase compared to fiscal 2017. In terms of highlight, our strong commercial and operational execution drove outstanding results in reinforcement material as the segment delivered record EBIT of $279 million, up 45% as compared to last year, driven by volume growth, targeted mix improvements, higher pricing and increasing utilization levels. We continue to make advantaged growth investment in fiscal 2018, as we announced our plant expansion in Indonesia and a global debottlenecking program which combined will add approximately 300,000 metric tons to our worldwide carbon black network through 2021. In addition, we completed the acquisition of the NSCC carbon plant in China which we plan to upgrade to produce specialty carbons. These advantage investments will allow us to continue to meet the growing demand for our rubber and specialty carbons products. Both the Indonesia expansion and the new plant in China will contribute to the future growth of our carbon black businesses starting in 2021. In addition our two new fumed silica plant investments in China and the United States remain on schedule with our Chinese plants coming online in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019 and the U.S. plants schedule to come online in 2020. Our TechBlend specialty compounds acquisition continues to perform well and we are successfully leveraging the synergies between our leading particle franchises and our unique downstream businesses. And finally, we continue to make great progress with our investments in energy materials as evidence by revenue growth of 70% in 2018 and successful program qualifications with the major global battery manufacturers. These are all examples of how Cabot is making advantaged investments in our core…

Erica McLaughlin

Analyst

Thanks, Sean. Now I’ll move on to the results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018. For the fourth quarter our adjusted earnings per share was $1 and total segment EBIT was $130 million, up 5% on a year-over-year basis. The reinforcement materials segment continue to deliver strong operating results with 33% growth on EBIT on a year-over-year driven by the impact from our 2018 customer agreement, stronger spot pricing and volumes in Asia and a better product mix. The performance chemicals segment results decline as compared to the prior year largely due to higher cost related to partner driven plan turnaround in our fumed silica network and spending on advantaged growth investments. In the quarter we also completed the acquisition of a carbon black manufacturing facility in China from Nippon Steel Carbon Company. This bolt-on acquisition will further support our growth objectives and broaden our capabilities as we convert a 50,000 metric ton plant to support our specialty carbons product lines. Cash flow was very strong in the quarter with operating cash flow of $163 million and we return $103 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Moving to more detail in reinforcement materials, during the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year of 2018 EBIT for reinforcement materials increased by $16 million [ph] and $86 million respectively as compared to the same periods in the prior year. The increases were principally due to higher unit margins and high volume. Higher margins were driven by calendar year 2018 tire customer agreement, higher spot prices in Asia and better product mix. A higher volumes in the fourth quarter were primarily due to strong year-over-year demand in Asia, while the increase in volumes for the full year was due to gains in the Americas and EMEA. Now turning to performance…

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Thanks Erica. Now I’d like to spend some time discussing our segment outlook for 2019. For reinforcement materials we continue to see a supportive environment with high industry utilizations around the world. We are very pleased with the results of the 2019 tire agreement thus far, where we achieve price increases and volume growth in all regions. Despite some signs of softness in the news related to China we remain confident about our position in China and expect to continue to see solid volume growth and maintain our margins given our investments in world-class environmental controls. In addition, our debottlenecking projects continue to add capital efficient capacity to our carbon black network to enable volume growth in 2019. Through 2018 this segment was operating at an impressive quarterly EBIT run rate between $65 million to $75 million. With the new calendar year 2019 customer agreement and anticipated volume growth we expect the quarterly EBIT run rate to increase to $75 million to $85 million starting in the second quarter. In performance chemicals the underlying fundamentals for our specialty businesses remain quite strong, but we expect to face near term uncertainty in the first fiscal quarter from the impact of new fuel economy and automotive emission regulations in Europe, higher raw material cost across the segment and a potential for inventory destocking in our plastics applications resulting from moderating polyethylene prices. We believe that these impacts are temporary and will largely be behind us after the first fiscal quarter with EBIT growth in the second and third quarters. In addition, we will begin to see the benefit of our new fumed silica plant in China coming online during the fourth quarter. Furthermore, grow from new customer qualifications and next-generation products in our energy materials product line is expected to continue to…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Mike Leithead from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Mike Leithead

Analyst

Good afternoon guys.

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Good afternoon.

Mike Leithead

Analyst

I guess to start out, strong momentum in reinforcement materials, could you help size for us the magnitude of price and volume growth you expect in the segment heading into 2019 maybe relative to what you accomplished here in 2018?

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Sure. Well, I think in terms of our overall outlook for demand, we continue to see that this market on a global basis should be growing in and around the 3% range. So pretty consistent with what we will communicate it during our Investor Day deep dive. So I think the underlying demand fundamentals are quite strong. And then, in terms of how we see pricing develop over the coming year, I would start by sort of characterizing the supply/demand environment and say that its favorable and expected to remain so given the limited new capacity additions and I think the toughening environmental standards globally. So this is certainly driving our cost of compliance and new growth investments they are customers need. So as a result we need substantial price increases to generate the appropriate return on capital. We’re very pleased as we sit here today with where our contracts outcomes are settling thus far. We’ve achieved price increases in all regions along with balance volume growth at the market rates. And we’ve given you the EBIT run rate progression for this business in 2019 and so the magnitude of price increases was included in those expected ranges. So you can see there’s a pretty sizable step up there and our outlook here remains very positive for this business.

Mike Leithead

Analyst

Great. That’s helpful. And then on the share repurchase program you stepped it up a bit here in the fourth quarter. Is it fair to assume that the rate should remain elevated here given where shares are today relative to the past quarter? Or are there some other financial considerations there that might moderate the pace of it?

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Yes. Well, I think first and foremost, I would start by saying that our corporate strategy and our capital allocation framework include a commitment to consistent return of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. And so that capital location commitment remains. Now in the previous quarter we did step up our share buybacks in that period of time and are certainly very comfortable with that decision here given our view of the full value of the firm. I think as we go forward we’ll be guided by our consistent return of capital to shareholders and so that target of returning 50% of our discretionary free cash flow remains I think the right one for the company. And certainly where price levels are today we think the stock is significantly undervalued.

Mike Leithead

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jim Sheehan of SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi. This is Pete on for Jim. Could you share any visibility you have on any future turnarounds you have planned? And what is a normalized rate per year for turnarounds look like versus what you experience in fiscal 2018?

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Well, I think it’s a little bit different by business, but the notion of chemical plants having regular turnarounds, annual turnaround at a plant, sometimes every two years, that’s a very common phenomenon in the chemical industry. Now it differs by business, so whether we’re talking about carbon black or fumed silica. And I would say, the expectation as we go into 2019 on turnarounds in our carbon black business would be kind of as we’ve seen over last year, no real changes but you can see shifts from quarter to quarter, the specific timing from quarter to quarter. But the full year turnaround profile I would say is basically consistent with where we were in 2018. In fumed metal oxides the turnaround dynamic is slightly different here because we have fence-line plants with our feedstock partners. And so, those turnarounds are always synchronized with our feedstock partner, our fence-line partners and the schedule is largely dictated by them. So when they’re doing a major turnaround of their silicone plant then we would have a synchronize turnaround of our fence-line silica plant. So the dynamics there are slightly different than you have this partner relationship thing that they had to get manage. And so certainly in Q4 we had an elevated level of turnaround activity in the quarter. We expected this, but we have three plants in turnaround during that quarter and I would say that specific quarterly profile was quite unusual. But again if you pull that from that quarterly dynamic and look at it on a sort of a full year basis, I would say it behaves similar to the carbon black and that you have these every year or two and in every major plant.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thanks. And then on the purification solutions performance improvement plant, does this primarily involve walking away from lower margin volumes or is there another element to it? And what percentage of the business are you targeting?

Sean Keohane

Analyst

So, the plan is really a three-point transmission plant and first and foremost its focus and so what we mean by that is being very discerning about which applications we participate in and ensuring that those have the right profit profile for sustained participation. The second part of it is related is looking at how our overall asset line up against those participation choices. And then third, really looking at the structure, the organizational structure to serve this business, so those are three key points, and of course, they are all connected. I think it starts with making real choices around focusing business in areas that we feel confident have longer term profit potential.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Kevin Hocevar from Northcoast Research. Please go ahead.

Kevin Hocevar

Analyst

Hey, good afternoon everybody.

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Hi, Kevin.

Kevin Hocevar

Analyst

I wonder if you could comment back in terms of contract pricing for 2019. I wonder if you can give – I know you probably can get too much in terms of specifics, but if you think about the magnitude of pricing that was realized in 2018 versus what you’re realizing in 2019, can you kind of compare it. Are they similar? Are you realizing more in 2019? What’s kind of the way, if you just look at that contract piece, what you’re seeing there?

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Yes. Well, probably the best place to start, Kevin is to kind of look at the overall industry dynamics. And what we see here is a -- I think a favorable and I would say sort of progressively more balanced supply/demand situation in the globe, so more balanced this year than last year. And our outlook over the next few years is that will be the case as there aren't any sort of material capacity adds in major parts of the world. And then of course the overarching trend of greater environmental enforcement I think is impacting. So, I would say, that’s the profile that we see. And as a result of that we would expect in order to serve our customers we’ve got to achieve substantial price increases to cover the cost of those environmental investments and to support them with the long-term growth they need. So that’s the trajectory in the business and we saw price increases last year and we’re very pleased with where we have come out this year and we have shared with you an expectation of how that quarterly range will step up here and its pretty significant. So our expectations are embedded in that step up.

Kevin Hocevar

Analyst

And then in terms of Asia too that was really helpful to hear the commentary that you gave earlier in the presentation on China. So wondering, is your expectation there, it sounds pretty good and so I guess, I just want to understand, is the expectation here you’re going to grow volumes and earnings. And it sounds like maybe grow volumes and maintain margins in the year? Is that the expectation then and also in terms of the curtailments could you give us some thoughts on that you’re seeing this winter, it seem like this could be more of a targeted curtailments to more of the offenders whereas I know Cabot is compliant with the regulations? Are you noticing that others are having to see more curtailments than you are this year? And do you think you can outperform the market in terms of volumes as a results over the next quarter or two?

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Yes. So, I think on the environmental front, again in China we definitely expect to see the industry, I think, we have to deal with winter curtailment. So I think that should have remains the case here. And certainly if you look at – if you sort of step back from it, Kevin, and look at China’s commitment to environmental enforcement, I think the signals are strengthening result, but we are seeing that they’re approach to implementation is morphing a bit. And that it will be based more on emission targets rather than specific production cut. So last year you might remember that there were sort of specific production cuts mandated and this year I think they’re trying to focus it a little more on emission target and so what that means is that it will, I think be more focused and targeted at the non-compliant – the non-compliant players. But, our view certainly is that, that is going to continue. So right now, we expect that our leadership position here is going to continue to allow us to run our plants with -- with no material or real impact from the curtailments, because we've got the emission controls in place, and that should drive I think preferentially customers to the Cabot value proposition. And we look today at where we're kind of pricing and margin levels are in China, and they're quite healthy. So, that's the that's the current outlook. But I think, it's important to remember that this is a balancing act for the Chinese government and exactly how it plays out will be pretty dynamic, but they lengthen the winter period. They've increased the number of cities that are subjected to the 26 plus 2 emission limits. And we're seeing clear evidence that they are in fact going after people that aren't compliant. So I think those trends don't change here.

Kevin Hocevar

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeffrey Zekauskas from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

Analyst

Thanks very much.

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Hi, Jeff.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

Analyst

Hi, in your description of how much you thought you might earn in Reinforcement Materials. You said, well, maybe we'll earn $75 million to $85 million a quarter. So, if we take the midpoint, so that's 80, so that's $320 for the year. So you would be up about $40 million in Reinforcement Materials if we took the middle of the range. But in 2018, you were up $86 million. So why are you so pessimistic about your prospects in Reinforcement Material and now you seem to think that you're -- you'll grow at about half the rate even though you describe the market as being tighter and your volumes are growing.

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Yes, so a couple of things Jeff. First of all that, obviously our contracts run on a calendar year basis. So -- the first quarter here is the old contracts, so there'll be three quarters of the benefit of the new, the new run rate that we share. And so I think overall, the industry dynamic is very favorable and we are projecting good momentum in this business. I think the difference here. First of all, I would say the step up of $80 million in 2018 is a pretty significant step up. And so to expect that a business like this is going to have another step up of the same magnitude, I think in the long term is not the right way to think about the business. But, the other thing I would say is that a material part of that step up has been the way that we have outperformed in China, as a result of the environmental enforcement here. And so if as a result of that leadership position we can continue to grow our volumes and maintain what our -- I would say reset substantially reset economics. That's a -- that's a really good outcome. So I think it's important to sort of break it into those buckets, the long term contracts part of it. I think continued really good momentum and then the reset in China and how we're balancing that going forward. I don't think you see a similar sized reset this year was quite substantial in 2018.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

Analyst

Maybe if I can try one for Erica. Your working capital use was $110 million this year, and your receivables and inventories were way up. All things being equal, should you have a working capital benefit next year or do you think you'll have a [Indiscernible] given where raw materials are?

Erica McLaughlin

Analyst

Yes.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

Analyst

As the best case.

Erica McLaughlin

Analyst

So the usage in this fiscal year was largely driven by the rising raw material cost and so the impact of that both in the inventory levels and the accounts receivable balances as we passed the higher costs to our customers and pricing. So if we go to next year and if we have a flat oil environment you would not see a similar step up that we saw this year. And if you see oil prices decline, then that would generate a source of cash for us. So it will depend on if we see a stable oil price increasing or decreasing to see that level. But, I don't think we expect to see the level with which we saw in 2018 repeat in 2019.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

Analyst

Okay. And then maybe you said it already. But how much is left in your domestic environmental spending to be compliant with the EPA regulations? What was the total spending what's left?

Erica McLaughlin

Analyst

So total spending, I think we expect it to be about $130 million for all the plants, complete at one, largely completed another and we have one left. So I would say we probably have in that number probably somewhere around $50 million to $60 million less for the final plant to be compliant.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

Analyst

So your CapEx should really step down beginning in 2020 then?

Erica McLaughlin

Analyst

That’s when that group, when the U.S. investments would be largely finished, the last thing is 2021 when that has to come on line. So after that, we would see that spending come back down.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

Analyst

And then lastly, in your specialty black business, that's tucked inside of Performance Chemicals. What happened to the margins of that business in the quarter? Were they up a lot and similar to what happened in rubber block, were they flat, were they down? What happened there?

Erica McLaughlin

Analyst

So I think overall, when you're looking at Performance Chemicals as you noted, the blended margin that you see. So you define it largely attributable awarded to the few metal oxide business. And so, as we saw the volumes in the increased spending and turnarounds come down, since that is the highest margin piece of that segment you did see a deterioration in what’s reported EBITDA margin. I think as we look forward, we expect those EBITDA margins to go up. I think, with your isolating specialty carbons, we have been successful in passing through the rising feedstock cost as we've gone through the year. And so margins have actually improved in that business when you when you look at it for the year. So I think we feel quite confident that going into next year, we would not see the fourth quarter impact with the absence of the metal oxides turned around and then the rising carbon margin as we would move through the year with the feedstock cost having being offset.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

Analyst

Was the specialty carbon margins up or down in the quarter year-over-year ?

Erica McLaughlin

Analyst

They were largely flat in the quarter year-over-year.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Kapsch from Loop Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Christopher Kapsch

Analyst

Good afternoon. I had a couple of follow up, just on the contract that sound like they're largely in place for calendar 2019. You mentioned higher price and volumes. The question is, is the volume increases that you're seeing. Are those consistent with the way your customers see the market developing or did you actually also pick up some volume share as those contracts have concluded now?

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Chris, this is Sean. How are you? So I would say here, they're largely in line with the market, the market growth rate.

Christopher Kapsch

Analyst

Got it. And then so as you bracketed your -- the outlook for fiscal 2019 in terms of the EPS, could just maybe talk about some of the things -- that some of the levers that you think are more uncertain right now that could sway the end result towards the high end or conversely towards the low end of that range that you've provided.

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Sure. Sure. So I think there are a number of factors here that could move things in and around inside that range that we talked about. I think first and foremost how we progressed through the winter season in China, because China is such a big part of the global carbon black market in the global tire market. How that plays out, I think is a -- is a factor that's fairly significant, and can have you with different outcomes across that range. Now we were very successful in managing that in 2018 and so we feel good about our ability to manage that. But how exactly China plays this out is a balancing act for the Chinese government and is a bit dynamic, and so we'll just have to see. But I would say that's one fairly significant variable that could, they could, it could swing things here. I think another one is in our performance chemical segment. We have seen as Erica commented in late -- in the quarter in September some destocking and demand softness and as we look across in the applications here many of them are into the plastics markets. And when polymer prices either moderate or accelerate you typically see a pipeline emptying or rebuilding. And so right now with them moderating, we're seeing some pipeline depletion. And if that persists, then that could that could impact you on the downside if it reverses, then you typically see people accelerate their purchases. And the reason for this is pretty simple, that the people downstream of us are converters, injection molding things like that. They tend to be smaller enterprises, and they're concerned about getting caught with high priced polymer in the face of declining prices. And on the flip side, when polymer prices start…

Christopher Kapsch

Analyst

Yes, that's very helpful. I appreciate that. And then, if I could just follow up one quickly on the few metal oxide business and the shutdowns, which were, I guess more extended, or more acute in terms of impact than you expected. Are those to the effect there is it --is it your time partners, they shut down their silicones production, and you just didn't have fumed silica, or did they also curtail their production of last, because I understand a part of that the relationship there is feeding back fumed silica as a filler to the last summer production, and so wondering if there's weakness on their behalf in that business or is it really just a function of having enough of your raw material available to service a broader mix of customers? Thank you.

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Yes, so I think two big factors here that impact -- impacted the result in the quarter. One is that the turnarounds were a bit longer than expected and anytime you have a synchronized set of activities it's not uncommon that you uncover things on either side of the fence that they need to be dealt with. And so the length was a little longer, which drove up costs a bit higher. And then you also have the volume impact because these customers then consume a certain amount of that silica in their own -- compounds as you as you mentioned. That’s exactly right. There's a volume impact and the cost impact. And while all of these turnarounds were planned, the fact that they were a little longer and the volume impacts of coming back online were a little more pronounced that was a bit unexpected for us.

Christopher Kapsch

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for the color.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Loris Alexander from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Loris Alexander

Analyst

Good afternoon. Could we go back to the discussion about outages and I guess can you characterize it from two angles. One is, given the utilization rates that the industry is running at now. Are you seeing any change in the risk of significant outages that could change a regional supply demand balance? And related to that, when you talk about -- when you discuss pricing with customers and they see the same trajectory that you, do they take the attitude of, okay well, there's a point in the calendar where it makes sense to move pricing up to a reasonable return on capital to incentivize a new project, or are they waiting for the industry to be tight enough to create the kind of fly up that we see in other much more commodity businesses in order to then incentivize new capacity build. I mean, how are they thinking about managing the tightness that's evolving in the industry given the rising costs you have for building plants?

Sean Keohane

Analyst

So maybe here the first part of your question Loris, I'll try to address first and then and then hit the second part. So in terms of outages, given the high utilization rates in general that outages whether they're planned outages or unplanned outages, have a more pronounced effect, because the industry is just operating at a much tighter level. And so, it certainly then does put a premium on being very well organized and well-structured and disciplined around your planned outages, because you don't have slack capacity somewhere else to fill that demand for customers. So that's it definitely gets more pronounced. A few years ago when there was more capacity in the industry, a player that might have an unexpected or an unplanned outage could rebalance their supply chain and source from another plant and customers had options to do the same. That dynamic has really narrowed here. Now, I mean in terms of how customers are thinking about the long term here, I think clearly given their growth investments and I'm talking about Reinforcement Materials here each business is of course a little bit different, but in Reinforcement Materials what we're seeing is customers are concerned about long term supply reliability and are concerned about having suppliers that they have the right sustainability profile, because those environmental pressures are becoming more and more clear and pronounced, and each of our customers have their own sustainability commitments and expectations as well. So who they align with is becoming more and more important for them and for their value set. So, I think as a result, they are engaging in a different way around the need for price increases and why those are necessary in order to support the investment level economics. And I think that only if that happens in a sustained way will the industry build capacity to support their growth. So I think this is in sort of a logical progression in conversation. First, realization of the supply demand balance. Second, I think a full realization of the long term sustainability trajectory that I think the industry is on. And third, they need to get reinvestment level economics in a good stable place in order for suppliers to be encouraged to expand in a prudent way to help them. So I think we're in a fairly logical conversation at this stage.

Loris Alexander

Analyst

And then just to clarify or confirm that your -- in your view the current levels are adequate for de -- what we what one might call de-bottle necking economics, but not reinvestment economics.

Sean Keohane

Analyst

I would say in general, yes, but it depends by region. So certainly the de-bottleneck economics are very capital efficient and given where the EBITDA margins are in this business, in relation to the capital cost of a de-bottleneck, there is absolutely no question. Those are those are highly attractive projects. Then depending on where you are in the world, your comfort with reinvestment level economics changes. So, for example, our plant in Indonesia given the supply demand, environment the changes in China and the fact that at this point there are not the same level of emission control requirements there that, that capital return on that project which is a brownfield makes a lot of sense for us, hence we’re doing it. But if we were to sort out in a hypothetical say or the economics yet in North America at a point they could support Greenfield economics plus the emission controls, we would say no. And so therefore we need we need higher pricing in order to get to that level. So it is a little bit depends on where you are in the world. But for sure on the de-bottlenecks those are very attractive projects to do not get current at current levels.

Loris Alexander

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our last question comes from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

David Begleiter

Analyst

Thank you. Sean, given where your stock prices and your leverage which is not that high, would you consider front loading, the share buybacks and point nineteen perhaps?

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Well, we certainly David believe that the stock to be significantly undervalued. Our commitment here is for no consistent return of capital. And so we would like the share price in relation to our sum of the parts this past year and we really like it now. So I think we'll certainly be committed here in the year to return that capital, and again looking at where it is right now. It's pretty attractive relative to our sum of the parts.

David Begleiter

Analyst

And just quickly on Performance Chemicals in Q1, should this business be up on a segment earnings basis year-over- year?

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Sorry, David, say it again.

David Begleiter

Analyst

Performance Chemicals should segment earnings be up year-over-year in Q1?

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Up year-over-year or you mean sequentially?

David Begleiter

Analyst

Year-over-year

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Well so Q1 is a seasonally traditionally seasonally weak quarter, so that that's true, but that doesn't that doesn't affect your year-over-year comparison. That's more of how things progressed throughout the year. On a year-over-year basis it really comes down to how growth is developing. And as we sit here today, looking at Q1 we see that there certainly were some effects in late Q4 from destocking and we wouldn't be surprised if those persist into Q1. So our view at this point is that if they persist in Q1 then we'll see a step up in Q2 and 3 as that as impact diminishes and then we head into what are normally very strong seasonal volume quarters of Q2 and Q3. So that's how we see the year, the year developing at this point.

David Begleiter

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes our Q&A session. At this time I'd like to turn the call back over to Sean Keohane for closing remarks.

Sean Keohane

Analyst

Great. Thank you again everyone for joining us on the call and for your support of Cabot and we look forward to talking again next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen for attending today's conference. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect. Good day