Sean Keohane
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Thanks, Erica. Looking forward, I feel very good about our position and the opportunities that lie ahead of us. We remain in an environment where utilization rates are high globally across both Reinforcement Materials and Performance Chemicals. Demand is strong and the ability for the industry to add new capacity remains challenging. As we talked about at our Investor Day in May, I expect Cabot to capitalize on these market fundamentals due to our advantaged leadership position and the demonstrated value we bring to our customers. Early indications for 2019 calendar year tire customer agreements are positive with an industry environment that is supportive. And we are making good progress with some deals already completed. This is a bit earlier in the year than usual to complete these agreements and reflects the strong business fundamentals and the customers' belief in and preference for Cabot's value proposition. We will likely have more to say about contract negotiations next quarter. Our previously announced capacity expansions are on track for our fumed silica and carbon black investments. We have completed carbon black debottleneck projects, which have increased our effective annual capacity by over 60,000 metric tons thus far. Given this advantaged and measured capacity increase, we have the ability to support the growth plans of our existing customers as well as to secure volumes of new high-margin business. We are pleased with the commercial success of pricing realization in Performance Chemicals. On a year-to-date basis, we have successfully increased pricing broadly across specialty carbons and the benefit is reflected in our results. Over the past 2 years, feedstock prices have been rising just about every quarter. And we've been implementing price increases to offset this headwind. We continue to watch trends in the feedstock markets, which have continued to rise. And as a result, we announced a further price increase for specialty carbons last week to take effect on September 1. We will continue to adjust prices where necessary to offset any headwinds. In terms of feedstock, I wanted to briefly mention the potential impact of MARPOL. For those not familiar with this, I will spend a little time on the background. The International Maritime Organization has introduced a regulation, which is related to the type of marine fuels that can be used for the shipping industry, which goes into effect on January 1, 2020. The outcome of the MARPOL regulation, as it is called, is that it reduces the amount of sulfur that can be emitted from marine transportation, causing shippers to either use lower sulfur fuels or put scrubbers on their ships to reduce the emissions of higher sulfur fuels. The fuels that have historically been used in the shipping industry have been higher sulfur fuels. While carbon black is made from a variety of feedstocks around the world, including some low sulfur fuels, carbon black manufacturers also utilize certain of the high sulfur fuels that have been used by ocean shippers. Thus, this regulation will likely have an impact on the price and availability of certain types of carbon black feedstocks. While the specific impacts are still being studied by the industry and vary based on the solution, it is largely expected that demand for lower sulfur fuel oils will increase while demand for higher sulfur fuel oils will decrease. Since the carbon black industry uses a variety of feedstocks, we do not anticipate an issue with availability of feedstocks for production. However, we expect there could be different regional impacts on prices of feedstocks, depending on how the shipping industry and refiners respond to the new regulation. These impacts are still being analyzed. Keeping with the spirit of our commercial agreements, which are designed to pass on the feedstock cost movements to our customers, we are building mechanisms into our customer agreements, such as a deliberate cost adjustment factor. This deliberate cost adjustment is designed to pass through the feedstock cost. And it would be triggered if our actual cost should become disconnected from the feedstock indices that we use. This mechanism in our customer contracts ensures we recover any incremental cost that could occur and enhances our flexibility for using the various feedstocks to accommodate changing market conditions. Finally, I'd like to address another item that is seen a lot in the news these days, which is the set of tariffs being implemented by the U.S. and China. At this point, we see limited direct exposure to any of the U.S. or China tariffs that have been implemented or proposed, which highlights another benefit of our geographic alignment with our major customers. For context, our year-to-date exports between U.S. and China are less than 2% of our total sales. Now I'd like to conclude by moving on to our financial performance outlook for the remainder of the year. We are very pleased with our operating results to date and our trajectory for the fourth quarter and fiscal year. This is causing us to raise the floor and narrow our previous guidance range, which is now $4 to $4.20 per share for the fiscal year. If we look at each segment, due to the strong year-to-date performance in Reinforcement Materials and a positive outlook for the fourth quarter, we are increasing and narrowing our full year outlook for the segment and expect fiscal 2018 segment EBIT to be in the range of $275 million to $285 million. In Performance Chemicals, demand remains strong across the segment and we expect to maintain our margin levels through continued price realization. Thus, we have raised the floor and narrowed our fiscal 2018 segment EBITDA expectation to be in the range of $205 million to $215 million. Due to the lower-than-expected third quarter results in Purification Solutions, we are lowering the range of our full year outlook for 2018 segment EBIT to now be in the range of a loss of $5 million to breakeven. However, as we look sequentially, we do expect to see a stronger fourth quarter. Finally, in Specialty Fluids, we will continue to see the benefit of recent commercial success in the last quarter of the year as project activity continues to ramp up in both the Middle East and Asia. We have narrowed the expected full year 2018 segment EBIT range to be between breakeven and $5 million. In closing, we are seeing success with our strategy and remain confident it will deliver attractive total shareholder return. We will continue to grow volumes, invest in new product and process technology, seek to capture the operating leverage from improving utilizations and pursue growth investments, including bolt-on M&A in our existing businesses. And finally, we continue to focus on creating shareholder value through generating strong discretionary free cash flow and reinvesting that in our core businesses as well as returning cash to shareholders. Thank you very much for joining us today. And I will now turn the call back over for our question-and-answer session.