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CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE)

Q2 2013 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 25, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to CBRE Q2 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Also, as a reminder, this teleconference is being recorded. And at this time, I will turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Nick Kormeluk. Please go ahead, sir.

Nick Kormeluk

Analyst

Thank you, and welcome to CBRE's Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call. About an hour ago, we issued a press release announcing our Q2 financial results. This release is available on the homepage of our website at www.cbre.com. This conference call is being webcast and is available on the Investor Relations section of our website. Also available is a presentation slide deck, which you can use to follow along with our prepared remarks. An archive audio of the webcast and a PDF version of the slide presentation will be posted on the website later today, and a transcript of our call will be posted tomorrow. Please turn to the slide labeled forward-looking statements. This presentation contains statement that are forward-looking within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding our future growth momentum, operations, financial performance and business outlook. These statements should be considered as estimates only, and actual results may ultimately differ from these estimates. Except to the extent required by applicable securities laws, we undertake no obligation to update or publicly revise any of the forward-looking statements that you may hear today. Please refer to our second quarter earnings report filed on Form 8-K, our current annual report on Form 10-K and our current quarterly report on Form 10-Q, in particular, any discussion of risk factors or forward-looking statements which are filed with the SEC and available at the SEC's website, www.sec.gov for a full discussion of the risks and other factors that may impact any estimates that you may hear today. We may make certain statements during the course of this presentation, which include references to non-GAAP financial measures as defined by SEC regulations. As required by these regulations, we have provided reconciliations of these measures to what we believe are the most directly comparable GAAP measures, which are attached hereto within the appendix. Please turn to Slide 3. Participating with me today are Bob Sulentic, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Gil Borok, our Chief Financial Officer; and Cal Frese, Americas Chief Executive Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Bob.

Robert E. Sulentic

Analyst · view. How should we expect the pace of broker additions or personnel additions second half of the year versus the first half of the year

Thank you, Nick. And please turn to Slide 4. CBRE achieved another quarter of solid growth in the second quarter of 2013. Our performance was especially noteworthy coming against the backdrop of continued weak global economic growth as well as heightened financial market volatility and rising U.S. interest rates following Fed Chairman Bernanke's remarks about the quantitative easing program in late May. Our improved performance amid this macro environment is a testament to our well-balanced service offering and our people's energy and creativity in collaborating across markets and disciplines to produce outstanding results for our clients. Nothing is more important to our company. Overall, revenue growth of 9% was fueled by meaningful improvement in all 3 global regions. We also saw a continued strength in our capital markets and occupier outsourcing businesses. Asia Pacific led the global regions with 16% revenue growth, extending its healthy rebound from a relatively soft first half in 2012. It was particularly gratifying to see a very strong growth in Greater China for the second consecutive quarter. The Americas region achieved 10% revenue growth for the second quarter in a row. Cal Frese, CEO of our Americas business, will take you through these results later. More importantly, he will discuss our strategy for sustaining growth and improving market share through our focus on better serving clients. EMEA also continued to recover from a difficult 2012. Although higher revenue in France and the United Kingdom was tempered by the recessionary environment across most of Continental Europe, overall revenue in the region rose 9%. Turning to our global service lines. The capital markets-based businesses continued to be growth engines for us. Global property sales revenue rose 20% and was driven by Asia Pacific and the Americas. Commercial Mortgage Brokerage revenue improved 22% as investor appetite for debt…

Gil Borok

Analyst · JPMorgan

Thank you, Bob. Please advance to Slide 5. Total revenue was approximately $1.75 billion for the second quarter of 2013, up 9% from last year. This increase is at the upper end of our expectations for long-term growth and was generally well balanced among service lines with good growth around the world. Cost of services increased to 58.5% of total revenue in the second quarter of 2013 versus 56.7% in the second quarter of 2012. This increase was driven by declining transaction revenue in a few geographies that have a largely fixed cost structure and lower revenue in our principal businesses where all costs are classified as operating expense. Largely, because of this, cost of services did not decline commensurate with revenue. Second quarter 2013 operating expenses were 28.7% of total revenue, down from 30.1% in the second quarter of 2012. It should be noted that $9.1 million of integration and other costs related to the ING REIM acquisition were included in the second quarter of 2012 while there were no such costs in the second quarter of 2013. Excluding integration costs, operating expenses were 29.6% of revenue in the second quarter of 2012. The current year decrease was achieved despite incremental investments in our operating platform. Interest expense was down 15% versus the second quarter of 2012, reflecting the effects of our refinancing activities this year. In the second quarter of 2013, we normalized costs totaling $42.7 million associated with the early redemption of our $450 million 11.625% senior subordinated notes. Our second quarter 2013 tax rate was approximately 40%, consistent with the second quarter of 2012. The tax rate this quarter was elevated due to a shift in earnings to higher tax jurisdictions and losses in certain countries in Europe where no tax benefit could be provided. However,…

Calvin W. Frese

Analyst · view. How should we expect the pace of broker additions or personnel additions second half of the year versus the first half of the year

Thanks, Gil. Please turn to Slide 8. We achieved solid growth across the Americas in the second quarter of 2013. Overall revenue growth of 10% was particularly notable considering the moderately improving economic conditions that continued to prevail in the heightened financial market volatility that developed over the final month of the quarter. Property sales continued to be a strong growth engine for the region. Sales revenues increased 19% in the second quarter of 2013 as investor demand was generally strong throughout the quarter and has remained so despite the recent run-up in long-term interest rates. While the recent widening of CMBS spreads could temper liquidity in some secondary markets, core properties remain in high demand and capital flows into real estate remain strong as investors continue to search for yield. Leasing revenue rose by 5% during the quarter. This performance comes against a backdrop of mixed local market conditions with modest overall improvement in employment, availability and rental rates. We believe that we could continue to gain market share in the face of generally soft overall market activity. Continued steady growth of our occupier outsourcing business drove an increase in property, facilities and project management revenue of 9% during the quarter. Please turn to Slide 9. Our results in the second quarter underscore the well-balanced service offering we have assembled in the Americas as the business has evolved over the past 6 years. As you can see, property sales and leasing comprised almost 3 quarters of our revenue in 2006. Today, they are business mainstays with short -- with strong near- and long-term growth prospects. But as a result of the dramatic growth of the GCS business, sales and leasing now make up 48% of total revenue. The dark green slice you see here primarily reflects revenue from facilities…

Gil Borok

Analyst · JPMorgan

Thanks, Cal. Please turn to Slide 14. EMEA overall revenue growth was 9% in the second quarter of 2013. This is very solid growth considering the recessionary macro environment across most of Europe. France and the U.K. were the primary drivers of this revenue increase. Property sales revenue was flat for the quarter, following exceptionally strong growth in the first quarter. Our performance was split during the quarter. In the U.K., CBRE was the most active firm in the investment market in the second quarter, according to property data, which led to double-digit revenue growth. However, our activity was lower in much of Continental Europe with the exception of Belgium, Spain and Switzerland. The leveling off of growth reflects the fact that investors remain cautious and highly selective in their acquisition decisions, although sentiment has improved somewhat over the past few quarters. Leasing revenue grew 3% across the EMEA, paced by gains in France and the U.K. Belgium and Ireland also saw growth. While modest, this growth comes at a time when occupiers remain hesitant to make long-term commitments and rent growth remains largely stuck in neutral. Property, facilities and project management was our largest business within the region during the second quarter. Revenue growth was robust at 22%. This strong performance is the result of our hard work over several years to build a broad market-leading platform to meet the real estate needs of property owners and occupiers. Please turn to Slide 15. Asia Pacific was our fastest-growing business segment in the second quarter of 2013, continuing a rebound from muted performance in 2012. Overall revenue growth of 16% is particularly noteworthy in light of slowing economic activity in much of the region and the impact of a stronger dollar. In local currencies, total revenue in Asia Pacific was…

Robert E. Sulentic

Analyst · view. How should we expect the pace of broker additions or personnel additions second half of the year versus the first half of the year

Thanks, Gil. Please turn to Slide 21. As we reached the year's midway point, we see that our performance in 2013 is generally unfolding consistent with our expectations. Like many business people around the world, we continue to be disappointed in the lack of sustained improvement in the global economy. The more recent heightened concerns about the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policies have added another dimension to existing challenges. Nonetheless, CBRE's strengths including our brand, people, flexible capital structure and balanced service offering give us confidence in our continued success amid historically slow and uneven market recovery. We remain highly focused on improving our industry-leading margins while making the kind of operational investments that will help us to better serve our clients and execute our growth strategy. CBRE remains on course to achieve full year revenue growth in the mid- to high single digits, consistent with our long-term business model. Among our major business lines, we expect that property sales will remain strong. Even with slightly higher borrowing costs, institutional and entrepreneurial investors remain highly attracted to the yields available from commercial property relative to other income-oriented investments. Property, facilities and project management services should sustain steady low double-digit growth rates, paced by growing global adoption of occupier outsourcing. Leasing should gain momentum as we realize the benefits of our strategic growth initiatives in this business and underlying fundamentals continue to slowly heal. Investment Management should produce significant carried interest revenue, much of which was anticipated in our initial expectations for 2013. We continue to expect margins to expand by around 50 basis points for the full year, driven by contributions from our Investment Management business as well as the normal acceleration in transaction services activity in the second half of the year. We also remain disciplined around managing operating expenses to a level appropriate given revenue expectations. In light of the strong current sales environment and the opportunity this affords to harvest gains in our Investment Management portfolio, we may exceed our initial expectations for carried interest revenue for the full year. If this happens, we could modestly exceed our original expectations of earnings per share, as adjusted, of $1.40 to $1.45 for the full year 2013. With that, operator, we'll take questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question will come from Brandon Dobell with William Blair. Brandon Burke Dobell - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Let me just start with from a personnel point of view. How should we expect the pace of broker additions or personnel additions second half of the year versus the first half of the year?

Robert E. Sulentic

Analyst · view. How should we expect the pace of broker additions or personnel additions second half of the year versus the first half of the year

Well, Brandon, Cal Frese runs our Americas. He's obviously with us today, and the biggest bulk of our brokers work for Cal. So I think he's the best one to answer that. And then I'll -- when he's done with that, I'll add on for EMEA and Asia Pacific.

Calvin W. Frese

Analyst · view. How should we expect the pace of broker additions or personnel additions second half of the year versus the first half of the year

Hey, Brandon. I guess as we've talked about before, we have an aggressive strategy right now to be attracting A players into gaps and open spaces in our platform. And through June, we have attracted approximately 100 new professionals into the business. Now, I have to say that our strategy is not to bulk up here but to really add key players in key markets or key sectors in the business. We think that, that track record will continue over the course of the year. And we feel good about our ability to attract new people into the industry.

Robert E. Sulentic

Analyst · view. How should we expect the pace of broker additions or personnel additions second half of the year versus the first half of the year

And Brandon, this is Bob, adding on with regarding to EMEA and Asia Pacific. It's -- the philosophy we're -- and initiatives we're following in Americas we're following around the world. And we're meeting with success adding good people to our team everywhere. We've -- last quarter, we had Jack Durburg on the call, our Global President of Brokerage. And what we've asked Jack to do for us is to drive this initiative around the world. So we're seeing around the world what Cal is seeing here in Americas and we're quite pleased with it. When we talk about this incremental investment in our business, this is one of the areas we're really focused on, is adding production talent. In addition to that, we're adding management talent and investing in technology and some other platform aspects of our business. But we're really focused on adding production talent. Brandon Burke Dobell - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Okay. Shifting gears a little bit. Any lingering effects that you guys have seen as you've worked into July from all the noise in kind of May and June around rates picking, or have you seen pipeline conversion rates change here in the U.S. or I guess in the U.K. also?

Calvin W. Frese

Analyst · view. How should we expect the pace of broker additions or personnel additions second half of the year versus the first half of the year

Can I jump and grab that again? We're watching this obviously very closely, I'd say, day-to-day, but it seems hour-to-hour in some ways. But based on the anecdotal evidence so far, I think we've seen relatively minimal impact on really either pricing or volumes to date, particularly for core assets and in those gateway cities. When you think about it, the capital remains abundant, particularly again for core assets. Real estate remains an attractive asset class for the traditional reasons of diversification and inflation hedge, but also importantly, continues to offer attractive returns relative to other asset classes. So we believe a modestly improving economy will continue to trend of improving fundamentals, which will help. So all in all, we think the second half should continue to be strong in the capital markets business.

Robert E. Sulentic

Analyst · view. How should we expect the pace of broker additions or personnel additions second half of the year versus the first half of the year

And I would only add to that by saying that there's the environment we operating in and then there's what we're doing within that environment. And this kind of links back into that first question, Brandon, and that is we are aggressively working to improve our capabilities. We're starting to feel that in our results. And so we're hopeful and expecting that the markets will act around the world the way Cal has described. We're also hoping and expecting that we'll perform a little bit better than that because of some of the steps we've taken. Brandon Burke Dobell - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Okay. And then final one for me. Within GCS, maybe kind of a two-part question, what is your exposure to kind of it's called the brick-and-mortar retailers look like? And then any sense of the wins that you talked about in GCS this quarter, a geographic breakdown? Is it all Americas or was it spread across the regions pretty well?

Robert E. Sulentic

Analyst · view. How should we expect the pace of broker additions or personnel additions second half of the year versus the first half of the year

Why don't I hit that, Cal, just globally on GCS and you can talk about the Americas. We do have some exposure to brick-and-mortar retailers within GCS. But actually, some of the challenges that they're facing is causing them to be interested in our services and everything from disposing of spaces to managing space while they get back to focusing on their core businesses, so on and so forth. So we're not feeling, Brandon, any negative effects of the movement to online retailing from brick-and-mortar retailing in our business. We do a lot of retail facilities for banks and that's been very good business and positive business, unaffected. On a relative basis, our GCS business is much bigger here in the U.S. than it is in other parts of the world, but we had a very good growth quarter outside the U.S. in GCS. So that was encouraging. Cal?

Calvin W. Frese

Analyst · view. How should we expect the pace of broker additions or personnel additions second half of the year versus the first half of the year

All I would add is that I think that of those contracts, most of them actually had an Americas component to them. But what we're seeing in our pipeline is larger opportunities with international pieces to them. So it's all been pretty good.

Operator

Operator

Our next question in queue will come from the line of Anthony Paolone with JPMorgan. Joseph C. Dazio - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: It's actually Joe Dazio here with Tony. Wondering if I could dig into the gross margin a little bit again. Gil, can you clarify, I think you said that it went down because there were regions in which there was a fixed cost component for producers that saw a decline in transactions, did I hear that right?

Gil Borok

Analyst · JPMorgan

You did. So you've got a couple of things going on that are affecting the move in terms of cost of services versus revenue. And essentially, as you know, cost of services in general will move with revenue, particularly when it's commission based or transaction based, less so in the outsourcing business. But we had a revenue decrease in the principal businesses, which have no cost of services component. So when you have a revenue decrease, their cost of services is not moving down there because it's all in OpEx. And then we also had 1 or 2 countries, in particular, that have more fixed cost structures than, let's say, using the U.S. as a compare where we have a commission structure. We've got a couple of countries where revenue was down, but cost was not down commensurate with revenue. And that's having any impact, if you will, on the ratio of cost of services to revenue because they're not moving in like kind in those 2 instances. Joseph C. Dazio - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: And is that primarily in EMEA where that occurs?

Gil Borok

Analyst · JPMorgan

Actually, not. The largest one was actually in Brazil. Joseph C. Dazio - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. One other, I guess, margin-related question. The incremental EBITDA margin looked like it was about 16% or so. And I guess, just kind of curious how you think that number -- how much do you think that number could have potentially expand? I guess, the transaction businesses -- we've been using the rule of thumb they produce overall margins of about 20%, so the incremental margins could be higher. So do you think that 16% could go up from here, or do you think that the impact of the outsourcing business is so great that it kind of pulls that down, there's not a whole lot of upside?

Robert E. Sulentic

Analyst · JPMorgan

Joe, this is Bob, let me comment on that and then Gil will probably have some follow-on. First of all, part of what you're seeing in our margins this quarter and you will see in our margins throughout this year is this choice we've made about incremental investments in our business. And we very specifically and very strategically and with the endorsement of our board, I might add, put a program in place to invest incrementally in our business because we think we're situated in the marketplace such that we can really benefit from those investments. So investments in talent, investments in some local market managers to drive the business, investments in IT and research and things like that in our platform. We've articulated in the first quarter and I'll repeat here, we think that the net incremental investment for the year is about $40 million. We think that'll have an impact on our margins for the year of about 80 basis points relative to what they would have otherwise been in the second -- excuse me, for about 50 basis points for the year. In the second quarter, we think that impact was about 80 basis points. We are very, very focused on those investments. So when you look this year at the margin associated with incremental dollars of revenue, you're going to see something slightly different than you would have seen from us historically and probably something slightly different than you're going to see from us prospectively, because this is a year where we're ramping up and catching up a little, making some investments that we need to make. So that's part of what you're seeing in those numbers. And Gil, I don't know what you'd want to add to that.

Gil Borok

Analyst · JPMorgan

Yes, the only thing I would add for you to consider, of course, is we're in the second quarter and it's a 90-day period. And so what you were sort of suggesting in terms of as the year goes on, it is true that the pie shift naturally with the seasonality of the transaction business. And accordingly, the impact on a full year basis will be different than on -- just on the second quarter or the first quarter.

Calvin W. Frese

Analyst · JPMorgan

Can I just -- do you mind if I -- this is Cal, CEO of the Americas. I simply would say that there's tremendous alignment among the management team on these strategic investments that Bob's talking about. And everyone across the world is intensely focused on managing the business extremely carefully because we're laying in these strategic investments, which we believe will be high-yield investments. So we're on it. I think we have this reputation. I've been here for 15 years and was COO of the Americas at one point in my career and we're very focused on running an efficient business. Joseph C. Dazio - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Is there any, I guess, goal with respect to incremental margins? I know in prior years you've talked sort of the 20% corporate margin goal being out there. But with these investments, does that kind of change any of the thinking as to how that could trend over the next couple of years?

Robert E. Sulentic

Analyst · JPMorgan

What we've talked about is where we think we're going to get to this year, Joe, which is 50 basis points of margin, increment above last year after taking into account those investments. And again, we think those investments are going to cost us about 50 basis points of margin this year. So said differently, we would have expanded about 1% this year in the absence of those investments. Joseph C. Dazio - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: All right. And then last question, the leasing growth, it looks like it's kind of in the low to mid-single digits globally. Is there a way you can roughly break that out and maybe do it regionally, if you can, by the different buckets that drive leasing revenues up? So in other words, how much of that growth is from rents going up versus lease durations going up versus square footage going up?

Gil Borok

Analyst · JPMorgan

Joe, the short answer is essentially it's still a volume velocity driver. So it's really more about the number of transactions being up because the rental rates are up in some places, but in the U.S. they're up a little bit, not very much; and in Europe, they're pretty much flat; and I think more or less the same for Asia. So it's really still about volume more than anything else.

Robert E. Sulentic

Analyst · JPMorgan

What we do know is that in the second quarter, the volume of leases we did was up slightly and the size of those leases in terms of dollars was up slightly. So you had the cumulative effect of those 2 things. But that's an aggregate answer for what we saw around the world and across product types.

Operator

Operator

Our next question in queue will come from Will Marks with JMP Securities.

William C. Marks - JMP Securities LLC, Research Division

Analyst · JMP Securities

Let me first ask, Gil, do you ever comment on where net debt could be year end in terms of -- based on hitting your guidance or just any related thoughts?

Gil Borok

Analyst · JMP Securities

Well, no. The only statement that we've made is naturally net debt will go down as the year progresses because of the seasonality. But we haven't given a number in terms the way net debt would be at 12/31.

Robert E. Sulentic

Analyst · JMP Securities

And let me say, Will, we talk about the investments we're ranking. The investments that Cal and Gil and I have been talking about so far in this call are income statement investments. We're forgoing some short-term income. We also have an aggressive plan for making balance sheet investments with our capital. We're co-investing in our Investment Management business. We're co-investing in our development business. We're -- we have M&A we're looking at and we were doing capital expenditures for technologies. So all of that's going to play into that net debt picture between now and the end of the year.

William C. Marks - JMP Securities LLC, Research Division

Analyst · JMP Securities

Okay, that makes sense. Second question on the guidance. Just to be clear, I think you have been clear, that the potential upside in guidance does not relate to your particular investments sales revenues being higher than expected. It's rather how that drives the asset management revenues?

Gil Borok

Analyst · JMP Securities

Well, the incremental -- if there is an incremental, it's purely related to CBRE global investors and carried interest. That's got nothing to do with capital markets. So just to be clear, it's all about the potential for carried interest that we see as high. That's what's driving that comment about the flexibility of exceeding where we're at.

William C. Marks - JMP Securities LLC, Research Division

Analyst · JMP Securities

Okay, great. And then last question, more big picture on leasing conditions. I don't want to put words in your mouth because it may not have been you guys have commented. But we have heard from, at least others, that second half leasing revenues, maybe it's just domestic, should be higher than first half, meaning growth rates should be higher. Do you think that's a fair assumption, and can you talk about outlook overseas as well?

Calvin W. Frese

Analyst · JMP Securities

Let me start in the Americas. We did, at the beginning of the year, forecast that the economy would improve during the year and leasing would get stronger as the year progressed. And really, notwithstanding the choppiness that we see today, anecdotally and from everything we see in market, we continue to believe the second half will be better. Job growth and improvement in housing are having impact on the consumer and the related specialties, particularly warehousing and retail sentiment, is improving based on what's happening in Europe. Sovereign debt issues and consumer confidence is actually higher today than 1 year ago and it's at a 5-year high. So with real estate fundamentals improving and the activity levels that we see, we really have a general confidence that the second half is going to be better.

Robert E. Sulentic

Analyst · JMP Securities

Will, I'd say, this is Bob. I'd say for EMEA, that's where we're at as well. We think that the second half should be better. London is such an important part of the business, not only for ourselves but for the companies we compete with over there. And there's reason to think that, that would improve in the second half. Germany, same thing. Obviously, Southern Europe, Spain, Italy is challenged, but that's not as big a part as our -- of our business. We're waiting to see what's going to happen in France, and in particular, in Paris. But I think, on balance, we think it should be a little better in EMEA in the second half. Asia Pacific is a little bit different story. The domestic companies and the domestic part of the economy is where there is more activity now and the global companies that operate there, the multinationals or the companies where we're seeing less activity, the global real estate companies like ourselves tend to do more of our business with those global companies. And as a result, we're less inclined to think that there's going to be a material pickup in the second half in Asia Pacific than we are here in the United States or in EMEA.

Operator

Operator

Our next question in queue will come from David Ridley-Lane with Bank of America.

David Ridley-Lane - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America

So I'd guess, consensus thinking was the first 100 basis points increase in interest rates wouldn't have an impact on investment sales volumes. But I don't think anybody was thinking that, that would happen in such a brief amount of time. So just wondering historically what's been the effect of an interest rate shock on your investment sales in the next 3 to 6 months? Have potential buyers stepped away from the table?

Robert E. Sulentic

Analyst · Bank of America

Well, it depends on the situation surrounding it. If it's akin to a pickup -- a material pickup in economic activity and the economy getting better, as my colleague Cal Frese likes to say, it's hard not to feel good about the things that improved economy would do in our business -- to our business. So we think if there's a material spike up in interest rates, it's probably going to be because there's a materially better view about what's going on in the economy. And so, we believe that, historically, that's kind of in the case. If there was something else going on beyond that, that wasn't tied to the economy then at some point that would be, in all probability, a drag on the capital markets because there are significant number of leverage buyers out there. It also though, always depends on what the alternative investment classes they are doing that are available to investors, and real estate is becoming an increasingly accepted investment class. Cal, I don't know if you would...

Calvin W. Frese

Analyst · Bank of America

I would only say that what happened in June was abrupt, but anticipated. And I think the world was ready for it. I'm not saying it hasn't had any impact. But again, anecdotally, looking at our own volumes, and demand in the capital and the business, we seem to feel that's pretty good. I think people reasonably expect that interest rates could continue to rise, but so long as they do that in a way that people can anticipate and manage into their forward-looking outlooks, then it can cause a pause from time-to-time, but it is manageable. And we've seen this over every cycle.

Robert E. Sulentic

Analyst · Bank of America

The other -- I think the other interesting about this, David, is that the place where we think we're most vulnerable to dampening an investment property's activity from increased interest rates is in the second tier markets. Because the first -- the primary markets around the world are being driven by other dynamics, the value of properties. So we think it's the second tier markets where you'll see the biggest impact from interest rates. Ironically, we also think it's the second tier markets where we'll see the biggest impact from an improved economy. So those 2 things really should offset each other to a degree. Obviously, if either into that gets extreme relative to the other, you're going to get results that reflect that.

David Ridley-Lane - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America

Got it, okay. And then in Investment Management, would you expect that disposition is going to outweigh acquisitions in the second half as well?

Robert E. Sulentic

Analyst · Bank of America

Yes, this year. Well, dispositions are going to be very material. There is a chance that we could ramp up acquisitions to be on par with dispositions. But the general repetition of our leadership team in the Investment Management business is that this is a year we're going to be harvesting because our clients want us to be harvesting. And then we think that starting next year, you'll see the opposite effect take place. But we are in an aggressive harvest mode because that's what the investors did. We work for one.

David Ridley-Lane - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America

Got it. And then when you look at the 2013 forecast that you put in your slides for absorption, all that -- all those forecasts were up. I think office was up 26 million square feet from 19 million last quarter. And so, I'm sort of wondering, if that forecast is realized, are we talking about -- and definitely heard your comments earlier on the call about pickup in leasing momentum, I'm just wondering how substantial that momentum could get? Are we talking about high single digit here or more sort of in the mid-single-digit range?

Calvin W. Frese

Analyst · Bank of America

Yes, it's not high single digits. It's -- it'll be in the middle range, maybe improved over where we are. But remember, we're in the low single digit at this point in the U.S. in particular. And so I think there'll be some improvement with an improving economy, but not dramatic. And again, we believe we're outperforming the overall activity in the market and we believe that, that will continue as well.

Operator

Operator

At this time, there are no additional questions in queue. Please continue.

Robert E. Sulentic

Analyst · view. How should we expect the pace of broker additions or personnel additions second half of the year versus the first half of the year

Okay. Well, thanks everyone. And we'll talk to you again next quarter.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. We do thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Executive Teleconference. You may now disconnect.