Jeffrey Henderson
Analyst · Barclays Capital
Thanks, George, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be discussing another great quarter, running out an excellent fiscal 2011. I'd like to begin by expanding on some financial trends and drivers of our Q4 and full-year performance. Then I'll provide additional detail on our FY '12 guidance, including some of our key expectations. Let's start with Slide 6. During the quarter, we grew our non-GAAP EPS by 18% to $0.59 per share, leveraging 9% revenue and 14% non-GAAP operating earnings growth. The $26.8 billion of revenue recognized in Q4 represents another all-time high for Cardinal Health. Although non-GAAP operating expenses were up 16%, this was largely driven by the expenses added to the net impact of acquisitions and divestitures, as well as certain strategic and business system investments. Interest and other expense came in better than our expectations and last year, driven by favorably realized in interest swaps, foreign exchange and gains on our deferred compensation plan. As we stated before, when we prepare our internal forecasts, we generally do not include an assumption that these items will continue. Our non-GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 39% versus 37.7% last year. The higher rate is attributable to the effect of changes in income mix and discreet items, including adjustments in reserves related to completed and pending federal and state tax discussions. The net of these discreet items was worth $60 million in additional tax expense this quarter. Last year, we had discreet items in the fourth quarter that netted to $4 million in expense. Finally, we continue to benefit from the $450 million in share repurchases we executed last summer, with our share count in Q4 at about 355 million diluted average shares outstanding versus 362 million in the prior year's quarter. Before shifting the discussion to the segment results, let me comment on consolidated cash flow and the balance sheet. We had operating cash flow of approximately $120 million in Q4, which resulted in about $1.4 billion total for the year. Our strong earnings performance, as well as further working capital improvements, drove these full-year results. You may recall that last quarter I said that we expected lower cash generation in Q4 relative to Q3, due to the inherent volatility in our quarterly cash flows. This is what we experienced. We ended the quarter with more than $1.9 billion in cash, of which $266 million is held overseas. As a reminder, this cash balance does not include our investments in held-to-maturity fixed-income securities, which are classified as other assets on the balance sheet and totaled $142 million at quarter end. Although our net working capital has finished the year flat to prior year end at 8 days, we are pleased at being able to maintain these levels, given the absorption of recent acquisitions into our business. We generated $235 million in operating cash flow from net working capital reduction in fiscal 2011, following a noteworthy $949 million reduction in fiscal '10. One final note on the balance sheet. During the quarter, we opportunistically entered into a new, more cost-effective $1.5 billion revolving credit facility, which is in effect until May 2016. Our previous facility was simultaneously terminated. This line is in addition to our $950 million accounts receivable facility, which expires in November 2012. So we will begin our fiscal '12 with ample balance sheet flexibility to continue to handle any short-term liquidity needs and to maximize longer-term shareholder value. On a related note, I'm happy to report that S&P just upgraded our long-term debt rating to A-, recognizing the improvements in our business performance and the consistency of our financial policy. Now let's move to Q4 segment performance, referring primarily to Slide 7 and 8 and starting with the Pharma segment. Revenue in the segment increased 9.6%, with the acquisitions we completed earlier in the fiscal year contributing 6.1 percentage points to this growth rate. Revenues from retail independents continue to grow at a rate above the market, even when excluding the sizable impact of Kinray. We continue to see strong double-digit generics growth in the quarter, both overall and within our SOURCE program. Our Nuclear business produced 7% revenue growth in Q4, and our traditional core pharmacy or spec procedure volume, increased sequentially for the fourth consecutive quarter, which is a continued positive sign. Our PET business also continues to show strong growth. In China, Yong Yu's revenue was again very strong, growing 23% in Q4 versus performance as a separate company in the same time period last year. We also picked up several new large vendor accounts in the period. Our base business is performing well, and we have also begun to see the contribution from a newly implemented business unit, supporting the growth of retail pharmacy. We continue to explore other possible opportunities in areas like nuclear pharmacy, lab distribution and pharmacy management. And perhaps most importantly, we have now fully staffed key leadership positions to drive our strategic initiatives. In short, our China business is off to a great start, and we are very excited about its potential in this market. Now turning back to the overall Pharma segment. Segment profit margin rate increased by 19 basis points compared to the prior year's Q4, reflecting an increase in both bulk and non-bulk margin rates and a continued mix shift towards non-bulk. For the full year, bulk margins were up 7 basis points and non-bulk margins were up 24 basis points compared to full-year fiscal '10. As part of the ongoing success of our generic programs, we also saw continued benefit from new and recently launched generic items during the quarter, as well as favorable generic deflation rates. Although generic deflation continues to be below historical norms, rates experienced during Q4 were slightly higher than the first nine months of fiscal 2011, as a result of certain drugs passing their exclusivity period. We realized strong contributions from acquisitions in the quarter, which added 12.1 percentage points to segment profit growth, while our performance under our branded manufacturer agreements was also a positive driver. And since I mentioned a possibility of a LIFO charge on our last call, I did want to note that we did not end up incurring one in Q4. Net-net, the Pharma segment, again, had an excellent quarter, resulting in a noteworthy increase in segment profit of 30% to $295 million. Now turning to our Medical segment. For the quarter, revenue increased by 7.1% to $2.3 billion, driven by increased sales to existing customers across all channels and the impact of transitioning our model with CareFusion to a traditionally branded distribution agreement. This change added 2.4 percentage points or $52 million to revenue and had the effect of depressing our segment profit margin rate during Q4 by 18 basis points. Importantly, and as expected, volume from net customer wins was positive this quarter, for the first time in fiscal '11. Our inventory business, a continuing focus for us, had another strong quarter growing its revenue, over 10%. Medical segment profit declined 24% to $78 million, primarily driven by the negative impact of commodity prices on our cost of products sold, certain one-time items and system investments, partially offset by the impact of increased volume to existing customers and net new business. Specifically, commodity prices impacted our current period cost of goods sold by $14 million versus last year and reduced segment profit margin by 14 percentage points. We also had certain charges totaling $11 million in the quarter, which were primarily due to inventory-related items, including a change in estimate related to the capitalization of certain costs associated with self-manufactured products. As expected, the continued sluggishness in utilization disproportionately affected our higher-margin Preferred products, including our Presource kits. Now let me turn to Slide 9, which I will just summarize. In total, GAAP results included items that had a negative $0.01 per share net after-tax impact. This compares to $0.04 of benefit we had last year, primarily driven by litigation gains in that Q4. One last call-out. We recorded a small gain related to CareFusion's shares sold over the last quarter, as a result of slight adjustments to our tax accounts. I want to make a few comments about fiscal '11 in total, starting with Slide 10. For the full year, non-GAAP EPS was at $2.67 per share, an increase of 20.3% year-on-year and at the upper end of our most recent guidance range. Operating earnings of $1.6 billion increased 14% versus fiscal '10. Excluding the Kinray, Yong Yu and P4 acquisitions, operating earnings would have grown 9.6% and non-GAAP EPS, 15.3%. In particular, I am very pleased with the strong progress on our goal to expand margins, with both gross margin rate and non-GAAP operating margin rate increasing versus last year, up 22 basis points and 13 basis points respectively. This was driven by the consistently strong operating results of our Pharma segment, in particular, our generic programs, contribution from the acquisitions and performance under our branded manufacturer agreements. Although our Medical segment faced some unique headwinds, namely commodity price increases, a one-time CareFusion revenue recognition in FY '10 triggered by the spend and difficult healthcare utilization trends, there are good signs in the underlying performance, and we believe we have taken steps to position us well longer term. And positioning for longer-term growth was clearly an accomplishment enterprise-wide in fiscal '11. Through the acquisitions, organic reinvestment and strategic decisions, we laid a solid framework upon which we continue to grow in fiscal '12 and beyond. We did this while returning more than $500 million of cash to shareholders, through both a differentiated dividend policy and share buybacks. Before discussing our fiscal '12 outlook, I want to discuss changes in the way we're providing guidance and reporting results, going forward. As noted in the release and mentioned by George, we are redefining our non-GAAP earnings measures to exclude amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets. You'll see in our reconciliation statements that we have referred to this as the new non-GAAP, as compared to the historical or previously reported non-GAAP figures. During the past year, a number of you pro-actively asked us to consider changing the way we report our non-GAAP earnings to exclude intangible amortization. After listening with you and conducting our own research in comparable healthcare companies, we have decided to adopt this new definition for our non-GAAP earnings measures. This, we hope, will accomplish two things: first, to better reflect our ongoing operations and comparisons of current operations with historical and future results; and second, to simplify for you comparisons of our results against other peer companies, the majority of whom already report on this adjusted basis. Clearly, we also will continue to provide GAAP results, as we have historically. Also note that we will revise previously reported segment profit figures to reclassify acquisition-related intangible amortization to corporate. Fortunately, since we were already breaking out most of our intangible figures for you, making these changes was actually pretty simple. In order to assist in this transition, we have provided quarterly financial tables for fiscal '10 and fiscal '11 under the new and historical non-GAAP earnings definitions at the end of today's press release. So as highlighted on Slide 13, our outlook for non-GAAP earnings from continuing operations in fiscal 2012 is $3.04 to $3.19 under the new definition. This is growing off a comparable base of $2.80 for fiscal '11. Now I suspect some of you may be wondering what would drive us towards the lower end of this range. As always, there are a variety of drivers that could push us in either direction, but probably the biggest single factor that can move us towards the downside of the range is a further significant increase in commodity prices beyond what we've budgeted for. As you know, we do not provide quarterly guidance. However, I thought it would be helpful to highlight one-time item that we might see for fiscal 2012. We anticipate our overall tax rate to be between 37% and 37.5%, comparable to the FY '11 rate. And while this may fluctuate quarterly, currently we anticipate a more normalized tax rate than the quarterly variances we saw in fiscal '11. This means, for example, that in Q2 of FY '12, the relatively low 32.8% tax rate that we experienced in Q2 last year will likely significantly dampen our year-on-year EPS growth rate comparison. Likewise, our ETR in the second half of fiscal '11 is relatively high, which potentially creates a somewhat easier compare for Q3 and Q4 of fiscal '12. Slide 14 outlines some of our other key corporate expectations for the year. Our diluted weighted average shares outstanding should be approximately 353 million in fiscal '12. This is a slight increase from our fiscal '11 weighted average of 352.5 million shares. This forecast for fiscal '12 reflects $250 million of gross share repurchase, which we completed in July. Again, we expect the benefit from these repurchases to be offset by the impact of share price on the dilution calculation and exercising of options. These July repurchases leave $500 million remaining under our board authorization. Interest and other should net between $95 million and $105 million. This forecast assumes that items benefiting interest and other in fiscal '11, such as interest rate swaps, foreign exchange and a deferred compensation program, do not necessarily repeat in fiscal '12. We expect capital expenditures in the $250 million to $270 million range with a continued focus on completing the Medical Business Transformation project and customer-facing IT investments. During Q4, we finalized the valuation of acquired assets and liabilities for the acquisitions, which resulted in a reduction in our expectations for amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets to about approximately $75 million from our previous estimated range of $85 million to $95 million. One final note on corporate assumptions. Our guidance range includes some incremental SG&A, resulting from the expiration of the last of the CareFusion transition service agreements. However, as we have done consistently, when the CareFusion spin has created costs [ph] in the past, we have plans to substantially offset virtually all these costs within several years. Let's now spend a few minutes going through some of the segment-specific assumptions, starting with Pharma on Slide 15. Our expectation for brand inflation is that the rate will be similar to fiscal '11. We continue to forecast good growth from our generic programs versus fiscal '11, driven by our continued momentum in this area. We expect generic deflation, overall, to be steeper in fiscal '12, as certain specific products launched over the recent past move out of their exclusivity period and may deflate more rapidly. Based on our most current portfolio assessment and a very strong generic launch dynamic in fiscal 2011, we project a slightly lower year-over-year contribution from new generic launches in our upcoming fiscal year. Clearly, this area can change quickly, and because predicting generic launches is rarely precise, we use a risk-adjusted approach to modeling. We should also point out that we are using an underlying assumption that LIPITOR generic launches in November 2011 with 2 generic players. We expect to benefit from growth in both our Specialty and PET businesses. We will continue to invest in customer-facing IT, and we will also to continue to invest in growing our platform in China. Although we narrowly avoided a LIFO charge in fiscal '11, we are modeling one into our fiscal '12 Pharma forecast with the range of $15 million to $25 million. Finally, recall that deal announcement, we provide Kinray accretion estimates for fiscal '12 non-GAAP EPS under our historical definition of at least $0.12. We now expect to exceed that accretion level in fiscal '12, even before considering the removal of intangible amortization. Turning to Slide 16 in the Medical segment. We expect mid-single-digit revenue growth, reflecting net customer wins in fiscal '11 and the transition of our relationship with CareFusion to a traditional distribution model, which should increase revenues by $50 million or $60 million per quarter but decrease segment profit margin rate by approximately 20 to 25 basis points per quarter. We also expect continued sluggishness in the relevant healthcare utilization trends. Our guidance includes the full-year expectation of approximately $80 million of gross negative impact on cost of goods sold due to commodity price movements. This is somewhat larger than what we projected in our last earnings call, and let me explain. We use a CDI or Chemical Data Index, as a basis for our internal or related commodity price forecast. CDI is a forward curve for petroleum, petrochemical and plastics commodities. Since we provided our initial estimate on our April earnings call, the relevant forward prices for oil and nitrile have increased on this index. For your information, based on this index, we set a budget for fiscal '12 which incorporates oil prices in a range of $100 to $105 per barrel. Although cotton and latex prices have trended downward recently and are reflected appropriately on our forecast, they have relatively less of an impact on the overall basket of commodities to which we are exposed. As you would expect, we have, and will continue to take actions, including pricing, mix and cost-reduction activities, while offsetting a good portion of gross impact during the course of fiscal '12, and these mitigating effects are also reflected in our forecast. We're expecting a headwind of approximately $15 million to $20 million related to foreign exchange, net of our hedging activities. This is primarily driven by the continued weakness in the U.S. dollar relative to our foreign currency denominated expenses in our international sourcing and manufacturing operations. Our Medical Business Transformation is in the testing phase and on track for national implementation in the first half of calendar 2012, with a phased rollout scheduled to begin later this calendar year. And while we expect to see some slight margin contribution toward the end of fiscal '12, we continue to expect meaningful margin contribution in fiscal 2013 and beyond. In general, much of the Medical story in fiscal '12 and beyond is about further strengthening our value proposition and expanding margins, as we grow our customer base and our presence in higher-margin products, services and channels. We expect continued growth in Ambulatory and remain committed to growing our Preferred products, with a sourcing operation in Asia that continues to expand in scope. In summary, I am very pleased with our overall performance for the quarter and the year. Fiscal '11 was a great period of operational execution, financial performance, important strategic moves to establish long-term growth platforms and delivery on those and other strategic priorities. And very importantly, total shareholder return. I am confident that we will execute well on our priorities and continue our momentum throughout fiscal 2012. With that, let me turn it over to the operator to begin the Q&A session. Operator?