Ethan Brown
Analyst · Bernstein. Your line is open
Thank you, Lubi, and good afternoon, everyone. Our Q3 2020 results warrant careful consideration to capture full and accurate appreciation of our business today. Let me begin by sharing broad observations on the overall impact of the COVID-19 macro environment, and our net revenue results and mix, as well as highlight compelling underlying signs of continued momentum and growth. First, in line with the overall food category across retail, we saw a clear and prodigious pattern of consumer panic buying in Q2 followed by moderation in Q3. Second, the recovery in our foodservice business has lagged the overall foodservice sector, given our exposure to certain segments that have been disproportionately affected by COVID-19. And third, we continue to contend with COVID-19-related timing delays with large strategic quick-serve restaurants or QSRs. The above notwithstanding, the fundamental supporting our growth are live and well, whether it be our increasing U.S. retail market share; household penetration buyer rates, purchase frequencies and repeat rates; our increasing points of domestic and international distribution; our increasing rate of new product introduction; and some promising indications that QSR partners maybe emerging in what has been an appropriate and understandable delay in new launches during the pandemic. In light of what we view as transitory COVID-related factors, contrasted with enduring strengths of our business, we have not blinked in our focus on the exciting long-term growth path ahead of us. As such, we have neither retracted nor delayed our ambitious expansion agenda. Turning specifically to our Q3 performance. We experienced the full brunt and unpredictability of COVID-19's impact for the first time in Q3, producing net revenues of $94 million, a sequential drop from record net revenues of $113 million in Q2. While the effect of COVID-19 in our foodservice business is offset by the unprecedented surge and retail grocery demand in the second quarter, our third quarter did not enjoy the same level of benefit and was conversely disadvantaged by consumer stock freezers and subsequent moderation in buying following this run-up in grocery spending in the previous quarter. Accordingly, Q3 reflects our second largest quarter of retail sales ever. Our retail revenue growth is less to offset continued and significant COVID-19-related interruptions for our foodservice revenues, including delays in launches or expansions with strategic partners. To keep all this in perspective, it's important to note that sales of Beyond Meat products were up 63% year-over-year, while the plant-based meat category as a whole was up 41%, contributing to a 270 basis point year-over-year increase in market share for the Beyond Meat brand. According to SPINS data for U.S. multi-outlet for MULO natural and specialty channel sales, the 12-week period ended October 4, 2020. Further, across MULO, our sales velocity measured in dollars per total distribution points was 3.5 times higher than the category average and increased 15% year-over-year in the latest 12-week period, even as our points of distribution grew 55% year-over-year. To understand the significance of these trends, keep in mind that velocity typically decline as you add distribution points, meaning more stores while also seeing higher revenues per store, is a very encouraging time with regard to our value proposition to consumers. More generally, COVID-19's considerable impact on Q3, retail and foodservice sales, notwithstanding, our year-over-year net revenue growth for the nine months ended September 26, 2020, stands at 52.9% with our net revenues from retail alone, up 116.5% for the same period versus a year ago. The positive metrics underpinning this growth further bolster a determination to resist short-term attraction or delay, even hit our insistence on investing in our future during a period of disruption, puts pressure on our P&L. An additional look at SPINS and IRI, consumer panel data provides a clear picture of progress, where our U.S. household penetration increased to 5.2% compared to 4.9% as of June and just 2.7% a year ago, where repeat rates increased to 51.9% in September versus 49.3% in June. And purchase frequency increased 8% from June to September, while our buyer rate increased 13% from June to September. In other words, despite challenging macroeconomic conditions and highly variable buying products, more households are buying our products they are buying them more frequently. And on average, they are spending more per households on our products over time. Recent distribution wins include, but are not limited to: incremental placement of the Beyond Burger and Beyond Breakfast Sausage Patties at Walmart, and additional distribution gains for Beyond Breakfast Sausage Patties at select Kroger, Super Target, Publix and Harris Teeter locations across the nation. Further, we have secured distribution authorization on exciting and new avenue of retail outlets for us. We are pleased to announce today that as of January 2021, the Beyond Burger will be available at 7,000 CVS Pharmacy locations nationwide and Beyond Meat Balls will be available at 5,000 CVS Pharmacy locations across the country. We continue to launch new products with the Beyond Meat Rapid & Relentless Innovation Program, having brought to retail markets Beyond Meatballs and Beyond Sausage Links in the last three months to strong retailer acceptance. Lastly, as I mentioned a moment ago, our sales velocity remain well above category averages at a time when we’re seeing an increased focus from our retail customers around shelf space optimization decisions. The ensuing actions are expected to favor brands such as ours that continue to drive overall category growth, further increasing our ability to expand our on-shelf presence, even within our existing retailers today. The deceleration caused by intensified Q2 buying and freezer loading followed by moderation in Q3 was felt across our retail category. Looking at a time series of rolling 12-week sales for the plant-based meat category as a whole, according to SPINS data for U.S. MULO and natural and specialty channels, the category sequential growth rate peaked at 20% during the height of consumers’ panic buying and has since decelerated sharply to decline of 3% in the 12-week period ended October 4, 2020, or a 23-point negative swing in sequential growth compared to late Q1 and early Q2. This pattern of Q2 freezer loading followed by Q3 moderation do not appear to be unique to our categories, as evidenced by similar buying pattern elsewhere within retail grocery space. Turning to international retail, we saw a deceleration from Q2 to Q3 as we did here in the U.S., as similar dynamics played out at several of our most important markets. Nevertheless, as we saw domestically, net revenues in our international retail channel also increased considerably, around 27% year-over-year in Q3 2020. During Q3, we increased our international retail outlets from approximately 27,000 to roughly 33,000. In foodservice, as noted, our Q3 results reflect continued COVID-19 disruption. Total net revenues for our foodservice business declined 41% year-over-year, with our U.S. and international businesses declining 11% and 65%, respectively. As impact our performance in foodservice, let me first address the broader non quick-serve restaurant portion of our business. Recall, the quick-serve restaurants, or QSR customers, make up roughly one-third of our overall foodservice sales, while the remaining two-thirds consist of sales to a wide variety of customers, including, but not limited to, independent restaurants, smaller regional chains, bars and pubs, lodging venues, casinos, academic institutions, healthcare facilities, corporate catering services, government institutions, convention centers, movie theaters, sports arenas and other recreation venues. As you can imagine, many of these customers have been disproportionately affected by COVID-19 and have generally experienced a slower rate of recovery relative to the overall foodservice sector. Although, we did see a sequential improvement in overall demand from these customers relative to Q2, their total sales contribution remained well below year-ago levels. With COVID-19 infection rates beginning to pick up again in many parts of the U.S. and abroad, uncertainty around the shape of the recovery in this portion of our business remain elevated. To provide further context, I’d like to focus a bit more on trends within this broader two-thirds of our U.S. foodservice business as captured in NPD data and then turn to our QSR partners. As a reminder, NPD tracks for online distribution to U.S. foodservice outlets that generally excludes major QSRs, which often utilize direct delivery systems. According to NPD data for Q3, sales of Beyond Meat products declined 34.7% on a year-over-year basis compared to a 37.5% decline for the overall category. In other words, we achieved a slight gain in market share of this NPD-tracked channel, even as the entire category remained significantly challenged. Although our outperformance relative to the overall NPD category narrowed in the third quarter versus our recent history, we do believe our results are uniquely impacted by our segment mix, which I alluded to earlier. Unfortunately, several of our highest share segments within NPD-tracked channels, including lodging, recreation, full service restaurants, and business and industry, for example, have been hardest hit by COVID-19 here, as is the case with our large strategic QSRs. We continue to provide both support and patience as our customers adapt to the changing realities of COVID-19. Turning to the remaining one-third of our foodservice business, the large QSRs, we saw a sequential improvement from Q2 to Q3 from this portion of our business. However, total sales contribution from these customers also remained well below year-ago levels. The prevailing dynamic defining our work with large QSR customers since the onset of COVID-19 has made a delay in plans to initiate tests or expansions of plant-based meat and new items. Despite the near-term impact on our business, we fully understand and respect the propensity of large customers to maintain menu status quo or streamline offerings during the pandemic. Here again, it’s important not to interpret this near-term pandemic-induced drop in activity as a weakening in our long-term value proposition in this critically important space. We certainly do not. And despite the potential for another round of sustained stay-at-home orders, we are seeing strong signs that certain large QSRs are planning for menu additions. As always, we cannot promise any launches for a variety of reasons, including an inability to predict the course of COVID-19 and its impact on launch or expansion strategies within the QSR space. Looking abroad to Asia, we are proud to continuing our partnership with Yum China, which recently conducted a new test with the Beyond Burger across 210 KFC locations in six major Chinese cities for a three-week trial. And as I will discuss in a moment, we continue to invest in personnel and production capabilities in China. Throughout our operations, we continue to invest in the business to support current and future growth. First, we recently completed the acquisition of one of our former co-manufacturing facilities in Pennsylvania. The capability to produce a certain portion of our finished goods completely in-house is a key part of our longer-term strategy to reach price parity with that of animal protein. We tend to use our new Pennsylvania facility to not only reduce production costs, but to pilot processing products, including our newly designed continuous production lines, and perform initial scale up trials of new products. With the addition of this wholly-owned production capacity, we are also welcoming some 180 employees to the Beyond Meat family. I should note that, we will continue to align ourselves with best-in-class co-packing partners here and abroad, and expect the acquisition of our new Pennsylvania facility to only strengthen these relationships as we’ll be able to do important product scaling work in-house before transferring certain downstream activities to these partners. Internationally, we continue to invest in production capacity in China and in the EU. As you know, in early September, we announced our signing with Yasang Economic and Technological Development Zone to develop two manufacturing facilities in China, including the state-of-the-art production facility, of which the size, sophistication and sole dedication to plant-based meat, we believe will be unique. This larger facility was preceded by our first production plant, where work is well underway to get it ready for production trials before the end of this year. The second facility is expected to be a significantly larger, purpose-built plant, and once completed, expected to be one of the largest dedicated plant-based meat factories in the world. Similarly, work is well underway at our recently acquired manufacturing facility in the Netherlands, which also remains on track to begin production trial before year-end. And we’ve continued to build our strong teams in both regions. Finally, a word of appreciation for all our talented team members working on operations around the globe, these essential employees work tirelessly to meet demand within a difficult operating environment to replete with script mandates around social distancing, masks and sanitation requirements related to COVID-19. Added these conditions, the highly variable fulfillment requirements given unusual consumer buying patterns that are present in the COVID-19 economy, and it should become clear why we are so grateful for their work ethic and sacrifice. We continue to make strong progress in research and development, despite the continued impact of COVID-19 on our ability to operate at full scale as the Manhattan Beach project, our Innovation Center here in Los Angeles. Our scientists, engineers and technicians continue to work a two-ship model that better supports social distancing. I can't emphasize enough how proud I am with the team's productivity despite myriad pandemic-related impositions. In addition to the new retail innovations we recently launched, the team continues to make great progress on our next iteration with Beyond Burger, and I'll have more to share with you about that soon. Moreover, these talented women and men continue to work in deep partnerships with our QSR partners. Until you worked a full shift with masks, it's hard to fully grasp the difficulty of performing challenging research and development day-after-day in these conditions. As with our operations team, my hat's off to them. In keeping with our strategies to make our products as widely accessible as possible, we launched a direct-to-consumer, or DTC e-commerce site in late August. Consumers across the contiguous United States can now order a variety of our products with a click of a button, enjoying two-day shipping on each order. We're proud to utilize recyclable shipping boxes in the UPS carbon neutral shipping as part of this initiative. While DTC will likely remain a negative portion of our overall sales in the near term, we are nonetheless pleased with the effort as it symbolizes our commitment to meet the consumer wherever they prefer to shop. Overall, with regard to our availability, Beyond Meat is now available in approximately 122,000 retail and foodservice outlets globally, up approximately 10,000 locations or 9% since the end of June, with the majority of that increase coming from our international retail outlets. Our products are now also available in over 80 countries across the U.S., up from over 50 a year ago. I would like to now comment briefly on our margin performance, which Mark will expand on in greater detail shortly. Our results reflect a combination of ongoing COVID-19 challenges as well as deliberate decisions we made for the benefit of our long-term strategy, despite the understanding that these would negatively impact our profitability metrics in the near term. On a year-over-year basis, our adjusted gross margin of 28.9% in the third quarter of 2020 was down 670 basis points as compared to Q3 2019. Of this variance, over 500 basis points is attributed to price and mix, largely driven by increased trade discounts primarily, but not exclusively in retail. The decision to opportunistically increase our promotional intensity holds strategic importance as we've communicated to you in the past and is aimed at driving increased household penetration for our brand. According to the SPINS/IRI consumer panel data I referenced earlier, these tactical actions appear to be working, with our latest U.S. household penetration nearly doubling versus year ago and increasing roughly 23% just over the last two quarters. Our above referencing systems are continuing to serve long-term growth ambitions, naturally impacted our P&L during this period of disruption, where our operating margin suffered in the face of lighter net revenues. We believe seasoning on the immense global opportunity within plant-based meats over the years to come draw the clear focus on long-term strategy and a willingness to make near-term sacrifices in order to establish a much stronger position for our brand, over the long run. Finally, and before I turn the call over to Mark, I'll provide some thoughts on the competitive environment. We watch entrants carefully and to the level of investment and interest in the category was generally positive development in the long-term growth of the plant-based meat category. In this environment of significant spend by new and incumbent players, we are seeing, as mentioned, our velocity increase, our key panel data metrics moving in the right direction, including as noted, number of households buying our products, spend per household, frequency of purchase and repeat rates, all increasing. Strong retailer and consumer interest in our new SKUs and continued expansion of our points of distribution, both domestically and abroad. Lastly, we continue to see solid growth in the plant-based meat category, above and beyond that of animal protein. And importantly, our brand continues to outpace the category growth. With that, I'd like to now turn the call over to Mark Nelson, our Chief Financial Officer, who will walk us through our third quarter financial results, in greater detail.