Douglas Linde
Analyst · Green Street Advisors
Thanks, Owen. Good morning, everybody. Talking to you here from snowy Boston, where we've recovered from the blizzard of January 2015. We were – in fact, were closed on Tuesday, so we couldn't physically get here, there was a state of emergency. All the roads were closed. So we were unable to get our work out to you as we'd hoped. But we got it to you last night and here we are this morning. I'm going to organize my comments into three segments today. The current state of our operating markets, I'm going to give you a short update on our existing development pipeline. And then I'm going give – put a little bit more meat on the bones of our future development activities. Consistent with Owen's remarks on the overall US economy as we enter 2015, the overall health of the office markets, in our opinion is stronger today than it was 12 months ago. And why do I – why do we say this. Well, first and foremost, it's the demand from the technology and the life sciences businesses that's really driving things, and it continues to be very strong. In 2014, there was more capital deployed in the start-up ecosystem than in any year since 2000. Venture capital investing in 2014 was over $48 billion and included more first and second round investment than at any time since 2001. The Silicon Valley and New York City and Boston dominate the share of those investments. In 2014, the top 20 technology leases in San Francisco totaled almost 3.8 million square feet of demand. The average of the previous four years, which all were strong years, was 1.9 million square feet. In Massachusetts, we had 17 biotech IPOs in 2014 compared to 9 in 2013. And while the demand from traditional office tenants in the legal and the large financial services sector is not expanding, we believe we're getting much closer to the end of the law firm and financial services space reductions, stemming from changes to space utilization and downsizing. And we're seeing small financial firms expanding and absorbing high quality, premium office space. One of the DC brokerage firms actually estimates that 80% of the law firms in the DC market have gone through their downsizing cycles. So we're getting closer to the end. We had a terrific year on the leasing front, judged by our gross volume of activity. And that was driven in large part by the Salesforce.com lease at Salesforce Tower, and our strategic decision to go get in front of our major law firm expirations. So in 2014 we completed six leases with law firms, with expirations from 2015 to 2022, totaling over 1.4 million square feet. As you can see from our leasing statistics in the supplemental, the mark-to-market we've been describing in Boston was 38%, and in San Francisco 22% positive, all running through the portfolio as we've talked. The Boston figures are dominated by 139,000 square feet of leases in our Cambridge portfolio, where there was a net increase of over 50%. The New York City portfolio had a very small down hit this quarter, largely due to the fact that the majority of the deals were coming from Princeton, where there were limited transaction costs. And there was only one Manhattan deal in the stats and it was actually a short term extension on a piece of space that was signed in 2010. So, really very irrelevant. And in DC, those supplemental statistics are really biased by the NII bankruptcy, which resulted in a leased piece of space that was sublet, converting to a direct lease with Leidos in Reston Town Center, and that resulted in a $5 a square foot reduction in rent on 72,000 square feet. If you pull that out, our transactions in DC were actually up 12% on a net basis. Last quarter, I provided a leasing roadmap for our 2015 earnings projections. This morning my focus is really on the current market conditions that are impacting our portfolio. So let's start in Washington, DC. The Washington, DC, CBD market continues to be very competitive, since there really hasn't been any significant increase in demand. In the face of this, our DC team is making significant progress on the future explorations which are found in our 50% owned JV properties in the CBD. In December, we completed 250,000 square foot early renewal at 901 New York Avenue where this law firm downside by only 15%. In three assets, where we have upcoming rollover due to law firm relocations, we are competing for and wining market share. At 901 New York Avenue we’ve 90,000 square foot lease expiration in 2015 and we have leases signed or pending for 55,000 square feet of that space. At Market Square North, where we’re getting 90,000 square feet back, we have leases pending on 60,000 square feet. And at Metropolitan Square at the end of the year we have a 122,000 square feet lease expiring at the top of the building and the space is probably some of the best space in the entire portfolio and then in the entire city. It does continue to be a [indiscernible] supply coming into the DC market in the form of partially let buildings for lead tenants, not unlike the building we’re building at 601 Mass, as well as speculative new construction in the CBD NOMA in the Southwest market. Reston, which offers walkable retail and a great mix of offers in multifamily continues to drive tenants. Small tenant demand is strong. And Bechtel which move to Reston Overlook in July of 2012 continues to relocate additional employees into the Town Center and we are working hard to find space to accommodate their growth. As we described last quarter and NII filed for bankruptcy, and it resulted in about 72,000 square feet space moving to direct lease with Leidos, a 21,000 square foot expansion by Google to take some of that space, and about 63,000 square feet of immediately available uncovered exposure. The Omnibus Federal Spending Legislation that was signed in December may result in some limited spending increases in the defense and homeland security areas. And if this finds its way into the program associated with Fort Meade such as the Cyber Command, it should improve our opportunity to see enhanced leasing activity at our JV asset up at Annapolis Junction. Four of those law firm transactions I talked about were completed in New York City in the portfolio in 2014. And as I said earlier this was a strategic decision since these tenants were all evaluating the large blocks of space available both Downtown on the Far West side and those blocks that were going to become available due to the some of the tenant relocation such as Conde Nast and Time down from the Midtown West market to the Downtown market. The economics we achieved in these transactions recognized the locations of our buildings in contracts to the potential competition, in other words, we got paid for the kind of sales we had. We didn’t compete on price. In the case of Weil, we were also able to take a floor back on December and have already listed in an average mark-to-market of over 60%. We also completed an early renewal at the top of the building with the mark-to-market on the initial rent is over 25%, so to give you a sense of the embedded upside at the General Motors building. We’re actively working to release a 173,000 square feet of our Citi [ph] exposure at 601 Lex that occurs in mid 2016, 90,000 square feet of that is on floor 15, 16 and 17, and we’re under discussion and working with Citi on an early termination and a lease-back. The rest of the space is in the Annex building, the low-rise where we expect to commence a major redevelopment in 2016. Activities are high in the New York City, rents over a $100 a square foot was almost 1.9 million square feet, which was more than double the activity in 2013, and its risen from the nadir in 2009 of under 200,000 square feet. We have leased our last available floor at 510 Madison Avenue. While the majority of the high end activity is still under 40,000 square foot on a unit basis and the new leases averaged about 12,000 square feet as oppose to the renewals. Larger transactions above $90 a square foot are becoming more and more frequent on Park Avenue and in the Plaza District. Princeton continues to outperform the New Jersey markets. We completed almost the 100,000 square feet of leases in the fourth quarter most expanding pharma companies, and we’re now in lease negotiations with another 250,000 square feet as we enter 2015. Turning to Boston, the Kendall Square area of Cambridge continues dramatically outperform the rest of the Urban Boston market and asking rents above $70 a square foot. Our prevalent and vacancy rate is under 8%. Migration out of Cambridge is now occurring. During the last half of 2014 three tenants move to space in the Financial District. The Back Bay and Downtown crossing, because they couldn’t find the space at an affordable price. In the Back Bay we are underway with our repositioning and re-branding at a 120 Clarendon, the Hancock Tower low-rise, where we have 150,000 square feet availability. Our asking rents on the low-rise space of the Hancock Tower are lower than the rents in Cambridge. When fully leased the available space of the Hancock should generate close to a 40% increase over expiring rents. The Waltham Metro West market continues to get stronger driven by expansion by life science and technology companies. Organic growth continues into 2015, a number of suburban life science and tech companies have announced its expansion. During the fourth quarter we completed another 175,000 square foot of leasing in the market including 61,000 square foot leased at Bay Colony. This was the space we toured during our Investor Conference in September bringing our total leasing at Bay Colony in 2014 to over 250,000 square feet. We have limited current vacancy in suburban portfolio, but we’re taking back our 170 Tracer Lane, which is 75,000 square foot building, and taking it out of service and repositioning in the spring and we’re going to be getting about 100,000 square feet back at Bay Colony in October. San Francisco continues to be the strongest demand in the country with expected Prop M restrictions is also going to be facing availability supply constraints. 2015 will be very similar 2014 with very limited rollover and flat occupancy in all existing portfolio. During the fourth quarter we completed eight more leases including a vacant leased floor at EC4 with starting rents in excess of $80 a square foot. What actively engage with over 250,000 square feet of full floor tenant with 2016 and 2017 lease expiration, some of these renewals will be with law firms where they are shedding some amount of space, but we see significant opportunities for rental rate increases for both the renewal and the recapture space. The average mark-to-market over this – on the starting rent on all these transactions is over 50%. Our current development pipeline continues to show strong leasing momentum. Wolverine took an additional 30,000 square feet at 10 City Point bringing the leasing in our project to 74%. We have three leases under negotiation at 888 Boylston Street, which would more than double our commitments to over 260,000 square feet. We’ve completed two additional leases at 535 Mission bringing us to 202,000 square feet of sign leases or 66% lease at the end of the year and we have a number of active full floor proposals under discussion there. We leased all of the office space at 690 Folsom, which was delivered in early December. The Avant, the residential building in Reston is now 84% leased after 13 months. 601 Mass Ave in Washington DC signed it first retail lease for 12,000 square feet and we’re in negotiations on the remaining 6,000 square feet of that retail. We anticipate delivering building to A&P, Arnold & Porter, per the lease during the third quarter of 2105. At 250 West 55th Street, we ended the year at 79% lease. We continue to have success with small tenants and continuing our prebuilt program on the 38th floor where we’ve done two leases of 5600 square each in the high 90 starting rent. Another 13,000 square feet of prebuilt is under lease negotiation and there good full floor activity on a portion of the remaining floors. Construction at Saleforce Tower continue to progress with the mid 2017 delivery for space at the top of the building were not yet in the window for any lease expiration driven leasing under 100,000 square feet. Our marketing team continue to activity market the building across the bay area both urban and in the Silicon Valley and there is a continuous flow of users that have expect interest in the building and we have commence preliminary conversations with the few large tenants for the building for delivery in 2017. Before I turn the over to Mike, I do want to provide some commentary on our future development pipeline where we really didn’t make a lot of significant progress during the fourth quarter. The press release announced the official commencement of our venture at North Station. We’ve also garnered our first lease commitment for the retail podium. Star market has taken 62,000 square feet to put in a full service grocery store and we are in decisions with the number of other retailers, as well as office tenant for various portions of the podium structure. Design documents are progressing and over the next few months along with our partners at Delaware North, we will determine the phasing of the project and how and when we will sequence the construction. Again, earlier this month we completed an amendment with the state of Massachusetts for the Back Bay Garage leasehold. We agree to a 45-year extension of the ground lease, so it’s now a 99 year ground lease. We agree to prepay the ground rent. We agree to manage the refurbishment of the Back Bay Train Station which will be paid for by this Commonwealth of Massachusetts. We agree to take over the property managing and leasing of the station. And most importantly, we created the mechanism to potential add additional density to our existing Clarendon Street Garage plus a separate parcel adjacent to the train station and the garage. We have not yet advanced any plans for these air-rights parcels nor have we had any detailed conversations with the City of Boston or the local community. This will come as we work furiously over the next year to advance our planning. In San Francisco, we’ve executed an option agreement on a 2.3 acre site at 4th & Harrison and to assist the long term owners, the Barrett family with the permitting process on this block. The site is located in the heart of south of market area and it is two blocks from stops on the new central subway line on fourth streets that connect Caltrans to the city. Based on the pending Central SoMa zoning, approximately 780,000 of office retail and/or residential can be built on this site. We will however require Pro M allocation before we commence development. We are in advanced discussion on the development project in an outer borough Manhattan probably one of the worst-kept secrets in the city, as well as another site in Waltham, Massachusetts that would include building that could be under construction in 2015 and the potential for a million square feet of additional office and retails development, that’s on a joint venture basis. We continue to chase a large GSA consolidation requirement for our Springfield, Virginia landholding and we are in design in permitting for 500 residential units and 25,000 square feet of retail development in the Reston Town Central urban core on our signature site. So as Owen suggested we may not be making much acquisition headway, but we continue to dramatically expand our opportunities to put our capitals to work through our development activities. And with that, I’ll let Mike go through our results for 2014 and our 2015 guidance.