Raimundo Monge
Analyst · Carolina Yoshimoto. Please proceed
Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Once again, welcome to Banco Santander Chile’s fourth quarter 2013 results conference call. My name Raimundo Monge, Director of Strategic Planning and I’m joined today by Robert Moreno, Manager of Investor Relations. Thank you for attending today’s conference call, in which we will discuss our performance in 4Q ‘13. Following the webcast presentation, we will be happy to answer your questions. Before we get into more details regarding our results, we would briefly give our latest update on the outlook for the Chilean economy in 2014 while introducing our initial forecast for 2015. We continue to be positive on the performance of the economy. Although we expect a lower growth compared to 2013, this will be mainly the consequence of; first, a reduction in investment in the copper mills reconstruction effort after the 2010 earthquake, at the same time investment in the mining sector should decelerate as various large projects to increase output and to productivity are finishing. As we explain in a moment, these are two activities where banks had little involvement and were funded mainly through their own resources. At the same time consumption should remain at relatively high levels given the tight job market and we foresee a relatively supportive external sectors given the recovery of the U.S. and other relevant trading partners and a higher mine output. We expect GDP growth to reach between 3.8% and 4% in 2014 and to reach close to 4.2% growth in 2015. We forecast internal demand to expand by around 4.4% in 2014 and a little bit below 4% in 2015. The Chilean Central Bank should continue to lower interest rate, which should fall to focus then by the end of the year leading to a weaker exchange rate. The depreciation of the peso should also lead to slightly higher levels of inflation and good export growth. The inflation rate measured by the variation of the U.S. and inflation linked unit which is the most relevant indicator for the Bank should rise from 2.1% in 2013 to 2.6% in 2014. All these should lead to what we think is a supportive macro environment for banks. Regarding the economy, one of the main concern is if there is a slowdown in the Chinese economy, the Chilean economy could enter a low growth phase, while this risk is already accounted in our previous forecast. However as it can be observed in Slide 4, corporate, although being an important part of the Chilean economy representing almost 6% of exports and around 12% to 15% of GDP, has not been the driver of the Chilean economy in the recent years. Copper exports has been mostly flat in the last two years as prices are trending down and volumes were lower, a situation that could change going forward after Santander projects will come into full production. At the same time non-copper exports, which had been growing at approximately 10% the year since 2010 should continue to do well and for U.S. and Eurozone economies tend to gather momentum and the competitiveness of export increase following our weaker Chilean peso. In fact the weighted average of Chilean GDP growth, the weighted average of GDP growth of Chile’s main trading party is essentially expected to rise in the next few years as you can see in the slide. On the other hand, the government dependence on copper revenue has been declining since 2016, representing today roughly 7% of the government’s revenue as the government has successfully diversified its income base. For this reason, loan growth should continue to be strong in the Chilean market. Also ’14 we’re expecting loan growth for the whole financial system to reach between 9% and 10%. The profitability of the Chilean bank at least and it’s also stabilizing due to a more normalized inflation and rate environment. The Chilean financial system has an additional strength, which is a high level of savings and liquidity. In recent weeks there has been a great deal of concern regarding the possible effects of the Fed tapering program. We would like to remind investors that the Chilean economy has the strong liquidity levels. For example, if we were to sum the amount of money saved in banks, plus the amount saved in the Central Bank as point of source, Chilean provident funds, mutual funds and other institutional investors, we have a total stock of savings representing 1.8 times total GDP and exceeding all of the deposit bank’s that we held. At the same time the percentage of foreign ownership in the local fixed income market is low, representing less than 5% of the total. Therefore the effect of the tapering on the Chilean banking system should be limited, given the supply of funding, the low penetration of foreign investors in the local fixed income, the high credit risk rating of Chilean bank and the strong core deposit base of the larger market players. Now we’ll review the Bank -- how the Bank continues to move forward in its strategic objective. During the quarter, the Bank saw relevant advances in several of its strategic objectives fueled by its transformation project. The evolution of our quarterly results demonstrate the retail banking is well ahead in adapting the new strategy with a strong expansion of loans and deposits in the segments we have targeted for growth. This has been achieved with an important improvement of our CRN and quality of service and by radically changing the risk profile of our retail loan book. We believe that we are slightly ahead of the rest of the banking system in making the necessary changes that will allow us to continue to achieve an optimum balance between our return of equity and our cost of capital. By maximizing this relationship, we should be able to expand shareholder value. In 4Q ’13 total loans increased 3% Q-on-Q and 10.9% year-on-year. In the quarter, loan growth continues to accelerate in the market the Bank has targeted. These are, high income individuals, SMEs, and the middle market of [indiscernible]. Loans in this combined market increased 3.4% Q-on-Q and 14.6% year-on-year. In terms of products, consumer loans’ net growth and increase 5.4% Q-on-Q and 15.8% year-on-year. The evolution of our funding base was also possible in 4Q ’13. Total deposit grew 2.3% Q-on-Q and 8.6% year-on-year. Non-interest varying demand deposits increased 6.9% Q-on-Q and 13.1% year-on-year. In the quarter, the Bank’s funding strategy continue to be focus on increasing core deposits while lowering deposits from non-expensive short term institutional sources. Client deposit, that is demand and time deposit from our retail and corporate clients expanded 3.2% Q-on-Q and 19.8% year-on-year. Client deposit now represents 86% of the Bank’s total deposit base. The transformation initiative is also beginning to produce positive results in terms of quality of service and client satisfaction. Since the launch of Santander Select and with more intend use of the new CRM capabilities, the impact in our client base has been very positive. The amount of new clients entering the Bank increased 44% in 2013, mostly on the second half. This should reach to a 7% to 8% client base growth in 2014, which should help to drive fee income going forward. The transformation project is also resulting in a favorable evolution of consumer loan asset quality which is a key cornerstone of our strategy to obtain higher margins net of provision. This is due to various initiative the Bank has been carrying out since 2001; first, the portfolio exchange focusing on loan growth in the higher end of the consumer market; second, improvements of our risk models; third, the revamping of the collection processes; and lastly, the focus on growing the preapproved loans. As a result in 2013 consumer non-performing loans decreased 21% and impaired consumer loans which add -- were renegotiated loans fell 11% in the same period. Better collection efforts led to an important rise in consumer loan loss recoveries. This increased 63.5% in 2013. The Bank also concluded 2013 with its strong capital ratios. Our core capital ratio reached 10.6% at year-end 2013 and the total BIS ratio reached 13.8% at the same time. The ultimate goal of our strategy is to maximize the difference between our ROE and cost of equity. Today, we have the highest core capital among our loan peers, which allow us to grow with a solid balance sheet. On a global basis, our cost of equity is also significantly lower and can be derived from our strong credit rating. Now we explain the evolution of our results, which also show favorable strength. In 4Q ’13 net interest income continue its upward trend and increased 22% Q-on-Q and 3.9% year-on-year. The 2.8% Q-on-Q growth of average loans and a better funded mix drove this rise in net interest income. The net-net interest margin in 4Q '13 reached 5.2% compared to 5.3% in 3Q '13 and 5.5% in 4Q '12. In order to improve the explanation of margins we have divided the analytics of net interest income between client and non-client interest income. The slight reduction in net-interest margin in the quarter was mainly due to the lower inflation rate. 4Q the variation of the [indiscernible] into U.S., an inflation index carried units was 0.95%, compared to 1.4% in 3Q '13 and 1.11% in 4Q '12. And to explain that in other calls, the bank has more assets that are under liabilities linked to inflation and result margin tend to have a positive sensitivity to the ratio’s inflation. Regarding client net interest income margins, defined as client net interest income divided by average loans, in 4Q '13 they reached 5.6% compared to 5.6% in 3Q '13 and 5.9% in 4Q '12. The stable margin compared to 4Q ‘13 is mainly due to the higher growth of consumer loans in the quarter compared to other products. And lower client margin on a year-to-year basis was mainly due to higher growth among upper incoming divisions compared to a decrease in loans in the low income consumer segment, which the investor has higher spread. That said, the bank’s strategy is to broadly achieve a higher net interest margin, net of provision expenses by focusing the growth in the middle market SMEs on the high end of the consumer market, even though this will result in lower gross margins. Gross asset quality metric improved during 4Q of '13. Net provision for loan losses decreased 8.7% Q-on-Q and 2.6% year-on-year, despite a one-off provision set against a specific client in the corporate segment. The cost of credit reached 1.7% in 4Q '13 compared to 1.9% in both 3Q '13 and 4Q '12. Key in this lower expense was the reduction in provision in consumer lending which decreased 19.8% Q-on-Q and 37.5% year-on-year, as a result of the various actions taken to improve credit risk in consumer lending. The bank’s total nonperforming loans ratio reached 2.9% in 4Q '13, improving 10 basis points compared to 3Q '13 and 30 basis point compared to 4Q '12. The risk index remained stable at 2.9%. The total coverage of nonperforming loans with provisions in 4Q '13 reached 99.2%, compared to 94.8% in 3Q '13 and 92% in 4Q '12. With this evolution of margins and credit risk, the bank has experienced a steady rise in net interest margins net of provisions as you can see in the slide, reaching 3.7% in 4Q '13 compared to 3.5% in 3Q '13 and flat year-on-year. This rise was led by the higher inflation and the improvement in margins net of credit risk in consumer lending. The net interest margin of consumer lending, net of credit risk increased from 9.1% in 4Q '12 to 10.4% in 4Q '13, despite the fact that gross margins were down in the same period. Going forward the evolution of margins, net of provisions reflect various factors. First, in respect with inflation to remain at levels of 0.7% up to 0.8% per quarter, on average, with [indiscernible] fluctuations. In addition the Central Bank should continue reducing interest rates, which should help support names of our interest bearing liabilities tend to reprise after our interest earning assets. The Chilean Congress also approved a maximum rate cut law in December 2013. The bank estimates that in 2014 this bill could lower our net interest margin by around 15 basis points, all else being equal. This estimate is only preliminary as it is difficult to estimate the speed of implementation with the reduction and the effect on loan volumes. Finally we expect provisions as a percentage of loans to decline to levels of around 1.5 -- 1.4 up to 1.5, depending on the evolution of the economy. [indiscernible] demand, operating expenses in 4Q '13 increased 2.1% Q-on-Q and increased just 1.4% year-on-year. As the transformation project is beginning to deliver not only higher commercial activity with clients, but also increasing our productivity as well. The bank increased its loans and deposit at a greater rate than the market without increasing the level of branches and headcount. This has been achieved with a higher use of CRM and the strong competitive advantage that we have in the Internet, mobile and phone banking. The efficiency ratio reached 38.2% in 4Q ’13 compared to 39.8% in 3Q ’13 and 39.5% in 4Q ’12. All the above has resulted in strong operating income in the quarter that reached the highest level in two years. The ROE in the quarter was 30.7%. Excluding the sale of the asset managing subsidiary, the recurring ROE reached 19.7%, in line with the guidance given to analyst in previous calls. In summary, the Chilean economy and financial systems are in good health. The lower rate environment and the uptick in inflation will also help to boost profitability in the financial system. We achieved an ROE of around 20% in the quarter and our outlook for 2014 is sound. Although, the new caps in lending and eventually higher corporate taxes will impact our results, loan growth and asset quality trends are encouraging. The funding mix continued to be improved and client deposits growth has been solid. Seems [ph] net provisions expenses are rising. These are beginning to rebound, led by promising trend client growth. The bank productivity and efficiency is improving. At this time, we would like to answer any questions you might have.