Alberto Fornaro
Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open
Thank you, Marco, and hello to, everyone, joining us on the call today. The summary of our third quarter results are presented on Slide 8. Consolidated revenue decreased 4% at constant currency, about one-third of the of the overall decline was related to ASC 606. Solid growth in Italy in global lottery same-store revenue was more than offset by comparisons with the specific non-recurring items and elevated product sales in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA grew 4% at constant currency and strong Italy performance, an improvement in product sales margin and disciplined expense management. Adjusted operating income reflects higher depreciation related to recent lottery wins and extensions and upgrading our global installed base or gaming machines. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.31, compared to $0.40 in the prior year, primarily due to a higher effective tax rate. Let’s now review the results of each of our operating segments, beginning with Italy here on Slide 9. It was another very strong quarter forty Italy. Revenues increased 4% at constant currency, with contribution coming from all gaming business. 10eLotto wagers increased by nearly 8%. MillionDAY, which we introduced in February generated €47 million in wagers. Scratch & Win wagers were only modestly below the prior year on the difficult comparison with the relaunch of the Miliardario franchise in the third quarter last year. In machine gaming, overall wagers were up slightly due to strong productivity gains from both AWP and VLT machines. These more than offset the impact from state mandated reduction in the number of AWPs, higher gaming machine taxes and certain regional restrictions on the gaming machines. The higher sports betting revenue is a combination of a 10% increase in wagers, coupled with a lower payout percentage. Based on October trends, we expect the fourth quarter payout to be above the prior year period. Operating income increased significantly, up 17% at constant currency, reflecting the high profit flow-through from all Gaming business, as well as disciplined cost management. Our North American Gaming and Interactive segment is shown on Slide 10. Adjusted for the jackpot expense reclass, revenues were down 5%, primarily due to a large software sale in Oregon in the prior year. The installed base increased by more than 430 units, or 2% from the prior year, the first year-over-year increase since the IGT acquisition in 2015. Gaming service revenue was essentially stable on an underlying basis. Yield and installed base were stable sequentially. Product sales reflected the Oregon software sales in the prior year. This year, product revenue from terminal sales rose 16%, supported by growth in casino replacement and VLT units. We also benefited from higher ASPs. Operating income reflected the comparison with last year high margin product sales mix, increased depreciation associated with upgrading the installed base and larger jackpot expenses due to the timing of the jackpots. Now, let’s turn to North American Lottery on Slide 11. The underlying health of this business is strong. The declines depicted on this slide come from known items such as tough jackpot product sales comparison to the prior year at lower pass-through revenue, LMA revenue. Same-store revenue from instant ticket and draw games was up a nearly 5% in the quarter, while multi-state jackpot games faced a tough comparison to very strong Powerball activity in the prior year. Instant ticket growth was primarily driven by high price points ticket – tickets and large customers like Texas and Michigan. Lottery service revenue included the impact of the lower effective rate in California, which we will anniversary during Q4. LMA revenue was impacted by lower pass-through revenues from Illinois. As we have mentioned in the past, that pass-through revenue has no associated profit. In product sales, we saw growth in instant ticket printing in the quarter faced – but faced a tougher comparison to the prior year, where we had a larger VLT central system and lottery terminal sales. Operating income was down on lower revenue and higher depreciation associated with recent contract wins and extensions. Let’s now turn on our International segment on Slide 12. The revenue comparison primarily reflects specific non-recurring items that benefited the prior year period. In Lottery, overall same-store revenues grew almost 4%, driven by contribution from instant, draw-based games and jackpot games. Lower non-wager-driven revenue offset this growth. Gaming service revenue declined primarily as a result of those specific non-recurring items that I just mentioned. In addition, the jackpot reclass of the $3 million impact, gaming service revenue from terminal rose 7% at constant currency from growth in the installed base. Product sales revenue was up sharply, benefiting from a large multi-year contract amendment and associated software license to Veikkaus in Finland. It is important to note, we originally expected this amendment in the fourth quarter. Gaming machines unit were also strong, increasing by over 400 units, or 14%, primarily a new and expansion activity. The average selling price was also higher. Operating income was up significantly, driven by the high margin software sales and disciplined expense management. Our debt and leverage profile is on Slide 13. Net of FX, leverage was stable, despite the upfront fees and payments to minority partners. On Slide 14, we have included our current debt maturity profile. Year-to-date, we have refinanced over $1.3 billion in debt and have extended our average debt maturity to over 40 years, derisking our near-term capital markets exposure. These leads approximately $1.4 billion in debt maturing by the end of 2020. We have plenty of liquidity be closer to billion-dollar in capacity and that our existing revolving credit facility, as well as $450 million in cash on hand at the end of the third quarter. Approximately 70% of our debt is fixed rate that the remaining 30% of floating rate that is denominated in euro, which has a lower cost. Cash flow for the first nine months of the year is shown on Slide 15. Cash from operation was $249 million, including $366 million and upfront payments related to the Italian Scratch & Win license. In the fourth quarter, we have the final upfront payment totaling €450 million. As a reminder, we are responsible for 64% of these upfront fees. Gross dividends and return of capital payments to minority partners totaling $192 million, were largely offset by $136 million in contributions to fund the Scratch & Win upfront payments. Our updated outlook for 2018 is included on Slide 16. We have narrowed our outlook for adjusted EBITDA to $1.74 billion to $1.78 billion, the top of the prior year range. These includes a shift in timing of the 4,000 Sweden VLT unit shipment originally planned for the fourth quarter of this year to 2019. Our outlook includes approximately $20 million benefit from recent North American jackpot activity. As a reminder, we have absorbed $28 million in adverse FX translation since providing our initial EBITDA expectation for the year. Our outlook for capital expenditure remains unchanged. At this point, we’d like to open the call for your questions. Operator, could you please start the Q&A session.