Alberto Fornaro
Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open
Thank you, Marco, and hello to everyone joining us on the call today. A summary of our second quarter results are presented on Slide 7. Revenue was flat at constant currency and scope, which adjusted for the sales of DoubleDown, reflecting strong lottery performance in North America and in Italy. As we explained last quarter, the implementation of ASC 606 impacts the timing of certain revenues and the classification of jackpot expenses as contra revenues. These added 33 million negative impact on consolidated revenue in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA grew 4% over the prior year, which more than compensated for the differential timing of the LMA incentives. Adjusted operating income was up 2% at constant concurrency and scope, reflecting improvements in operating expenses. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.28 compared to $0.15 in the priority. The main driver of these year-over-year difference was related to an accrual for tax litigation in Mexico in the prior year period. Let's now review the results of each of our opening segments beginning with North American Gaming and Interactive on Slide 8. The decline in revenue is entirely due to the sales of DoubleDown and to the ASC 606 classification of jackpot expenses as contra revenue. Gaming service revenue at constant scope and adjusted for jackpot expenses was up 10%, primarily due to the upfront recognition of some revenue from a large multi-year pocket contract. Installed base grew about 170 units sequentially as a result of the new casino openings at Ocean Resort and Hard Rock Atlantic City as well as incremental placement on existing customer demand for our new product offering. This is the second consecutive quarter of sequential growth. On a year-over-year basis, the installed base declined entirely due to larger conversion in Maryland and Oklahoma in the second half of 2017. These increased as a result of better WAP performance. Product sales revenue was down year-over-year, primarily due to large replacement sale most notably to Oregon and Washington in the prior year. The new and expansion unit increase reflects shipments to MGM Springfield, Hard Rock Atlantic City and Ocean Resort. At constant scope, operating income was stable with the priority. Turning to North American Lottery on Slide 9. Total revenue increased 5%. Same-store revenue grew 4% on solid instant ticket sales and draw-based games with particular strength in California and Texas. As I mentioned previously, LMA revenue reflects the timing associated with recording incentive per ASC 606. As a reminder, LMA incentives are now recorded on a more ratable basis, while in the prior year the incentive were primarily recognized in the second quarter. These had a $17 million negative impact on Lottery service revenue in operating income in the quarter. LMA revenue was also impacted by lower pass-through revenue. As a reminder, the pass-through revenues has no associated profit. Product sales more than doubled over the prior year, primarily due to an elevated level of Lottery point-of-sale terminals and hardware sales in Massachusetts. This marks the highest level of product sale revenue for the North American Lottery segment in the last three years. I would also like to mention that the timing of these sales shifted forward the beat as they were originally expected to occur in the second half of the year. Opening income was up modestly on same-store revenue growth, product sales mix and operating expenses basically, despite differential timing of incentive and higher deprecation associated with recent contract wins and expansions. Let’s turn our international segment on Slide 10. Revenue declined $12 million or 6%. While revenues declined 6% in the second quarter on a year-to-date basis, they increased 2%. This demonstrates the volatility that can occur both with timing of jackpots as well as the lumpy nature of international product sales. In lottery, overall same-store revenue grew 1.4%, as the strong instant ticket and draw-based games more than offset significantly lower jackpot activity. We also saw lower non-wager-driven revenue compared to the prior year. Gaming service revenue declined reflecting the exit from certain legacy interactive businesses and the jackpot expense reclassification. Gaming product sales declined as a result of fewer replacement shipped primarily in Latin America. In total, we shipped 3,120 units in the quarter compared to 3,591 in the prior year period. We believe this is primarily a matter of timing. Operating income was impacted by lower revenues and mix, partially offset by lower operating expense. It was a very strong quarter for Italy, whose results are on Slide 11. The revenue increase 9% on a reported basis and 3% at constant currency on continue lottery momentum and increased gaming result, despite the state mandated the reduction in AWP machine. Total lotto wages increased by about 8% resulting from double-digit growth in 10eLotto, primarily from the continuous trends in Doppio Numero ORO. MillionDAY, which was just releasing in February, generated EUR 54 million wages, which offset the lower wages from late numbers. Scratch & Win wages increased 2% on the sustained momentum of Miliardario. Machine gaming revenues were up on continued strength in the underlying performance of both AWP and VLTs. This increase is impressive despite the state mandates in reduction in AWPs, which are down about 15,400 units or 26% year-over-year. The World Cup has contributed to an 8.4% increase in sports betting wages, which was partially offset by slightly higher payout percentage. Operating income was up 8% at constant currency, reflecting the high profit flow-through of lottery growth and disciplined cost management. Our debt and leverage profile is on Slide 12. Net of FX, leverage was stable, despite the upfront fees and payments to minority partners. This quarter also marks the first full-year dividend payment to our minority partners related to their interest in the lotto concession. Cash flow for the first half of the year is show here on Slide 13. Cash from operation was $120 million and capital expenditure were $259 million. During the quarter, we had the second installment of the upfront payment related to the Italian Scratch & Win license, totaling $366 million. This lead one final payment of EUR 450 million during the fourth quarter. We also executed a couple of capital market transactions this quarter. We successfully issued €500 million senior secured note with a 3.5% coupon due in 2024. Approximately EUR 400 million of the net proceeds were used to fund a partial tender of EUR 700 million 4.125% and €500 million 4.75% notes, both during 2020. And the remaining net proceeds were used to pay down our revolving credit facility. We made a distribution to our minority partners of approximately $180 million and received proximity $135 million from them as their contribution to fund their share of the Scratch & Win upfront installment payment that occurred during the quarter. Our outlook for 2018 is included on Slide 14. We normally disclose the euro-dollar exchange rate at which the EBITDA outlook is anchored, because changes in FX rate are unpredictable and can be wide. Therefore, we normally do not expect to recover any adverse impact as well as we don't incorporate favorable swings from currency movements. However, the strong underlined performance of our business year-to-date will absorb the assumed negative impact from foreign currency translation. So thanks to the business improvement, we are therefore maintaining our adjusted EBITDA outlook of $1.7 billion to $1.78 billion, while adjusting the euro-dollar full year rate assumption to 1.19 from 1.22 in the previous outlook. These assumes the euro-dollar rate to 1.17 for the balance of the year, which is a negative impact of approximately $26 million. So for the record, let me repeat this point. Thanks to business improvement, so we are maintaining our adjusted EBITDA outlook of $1.7 billion to $1.78 billion, while we are adjusting the euro-dollar full rate assumption to 1.19 from 1.22 in the prior outlook; and this assumes, therefore, for the balance of the year a euro-dollar of 1.17. Given our year-to-date performance, we now expect our results to be more evenly distributed between the first half and second half of the year rather than being more heavily backed half-weighted as originally anticipated. Also given the timing of certain product sales, we expect Q4 results to be much stronger than Q3. With regard to the increase in gaming taxes in Italy, there will be a 25 basis point increase on gaining machine effective September 1, 2018. An incremental increase of 50 basis point will be implemented gradually from May 1, 2019 to January 1, 2021. In addition in 2023, there will be a slight reduction of 15 basis point. As Marco told you, we expect this to be manageable. The 2018 impact is modest and is included in our updated outlook. Our outlook for capital expenditure remains unchanged. At this point, we'd like to open the call for your questions. Operator, could you please start the Q&A?