James O'Leary
Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Well, look, I mean, the first thing you need is stability. I am encouraged, and I would think the stability in the order book at NobelClad is a precursor. We won't see that for a quarter or 2 or 2 or more as it's mostly back-end weighted. But the fact that the order book picked up, we got a major biggest in our history order is a real positive. In the building industry, I think we have more self-help and more benefits just from being stable, but it's still a really, really tough market. And the fact that the Fed has started cutting interest rates, some appropriate consternation as to whether or not the next move will be up or flat after Powell's last couple of comments. You got a Fed that seems more favorably disposed, particularly with the recent appointees. But it's not clear that you're going to see 3 or 4 cuts the way people might have been thinking a month or 2 ago or that will be dragged out over a longer period. And that is absolutely critical to get things going. I'd like to think we could see some green shoots sooner but I still think you got a grand total of 20 permits issued in some of the parts of Southern California that we're most long-term excited for, but there's just not a lot of activity. They're continuing to keep a lid on permits. The activity is not there the way -- honestly, the way some of these poor homeowners would like to see. But when that starts to loosen up, that will be a little bit divorced from interest rates. But building, if we get 2 or 3 cuts, building could start picking up in the back half of next year. But I would say, if you listen to homebuilder calls, some of the larger distributors like Builders FirstSource, Beacon, anybody that's out there, I wouldn't say they've written off next year, but they're very, very conservative about it because we've been burned a few too many times. So that's -- I think middle end of next year would be optimistic on housing, but I think we have some specific things that are Arcadia and Arcadia dependent. And honestly, the market I'm least knowledgeable about is obviously Dyna just from past history. But that's the one where the volumes have held up, but a couple of industry prognosticators out there, they do comment on how consolidated our customers and our customers' customers have gotten. We're still at the point where we probably had the brunt of the tariffs that we've had to eat. Once the markets take off and we get the opportunity to be selling the value that we bring, I think we'll get some of the margin and price back, but that's probably quarters away. But if you wake up and the Saudis decide they're not going to keep the spigots open, that could change tomorrow.