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Bumble Inc. (BMBL)

Q3 2024 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 6, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello and welcome to the Bumble Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. My name is Elliot and I'll be coordinating your call today. [Operator Instructions]. I'll hand over to Cherryl Valenzuela, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Cherryl Valenzuela

Analyst

Thank you for joining us to discuss Bumble's third quarter 2024 financial results. Joining me today are Bumble CEO Lidiane Jones and CFO Anu Subramanian. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that certain statements made on this call today are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties and reflect our current expectations based on our beliefs, assumptions, and information currently available to us. Although we believe these expectations are reasonable, we undertake no obligation to revise any statement to reflect changes that occur after this call. Descriptions and factors and risks that could cause action results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements are discussed in more detail in today's earnings press release and our periodic filings to the SEC. During the call, we also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures should be considered in addition to and not as a substitute for or in isolation from our GAAP results. Reconciliation for the most comparable GAAP measures are available in our earnings press release, which is available on the Investor Invention section of our website at ir.bumble.com. And with that, I'll turn it over to Lidiane.

Lidiane Jones

Analyst

Thank you, Cherryl, and good afternoon, everyone. In the third quarter, we delivered on our key financial objectives and made good progress on our strategy to deliver sustainable growth for the long term. Total revenue and Bumble app revenue came within our Q3 outlook ranges, while our team's strong operational focus led to adjusted EBITDA for Q3 that exceeded our outlook. We're operating with discipline and generating solid cash flow, which has enabled us to repurchase $120 million in stock since we reported in August. Anu will walk you through more details on the quarter in a moment. In 2024, we embarked on a transformation of Bumble. We've gone leaner as a team. We have attracted top talent to our leadership team, and throughout the organization, we're making better data-driven decisions, and we're increasing the velocity of our execution, including in engineering and product development. We continued to execute on these transformation initiatives in Q3, and I'm really proud of our team and the progress that we're making. The Bumble transformation is foundational to achieving our goals for reimagining Bumble app. On our last call, we shared our priorities for how we're realigning Bumble app to drive our customer success by ensuring they find great connections and ultimately bear forever matches on Bumble. To achieve this goal, we're executing on a vision to build the next generation of online to real-world connections. The plan started with three key initiatives we laid out on our last call, strengthening the core of our ecosystem, driving innovation in customer experience, and enhancing our revenue strategy to ensure we deliver value at every step of our customer's journey. We're off to a strong start in Q3. First, we have rebalanced the mix of our marketing spend to focus on organic strategies in our top…

Anuradha Subramanian

Analyst

Thank you, Lidiane, and good afternoon, everyone. We delivered third quarter revenue within our outlook ranges while exceeding our expectations for adjusted EBITDA. During the quarter, we executed the discipline to achieve near term results while also working towards setting the foundation for sustainable growth and building towards the vision that Lidiane just shared. While we still have work to do over the coming year, we are confident in our direction and encouraged by the early progress we are making. I'll walk you through our third quarter results in detail and then share our outlook for the fourth quarter. Unless stated otherwise, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis. In Q3, total Bumble Inc. revenue was $274 million, down 1%, including an unfavorable impact from FX of approximately $1 million. Total paying users grew 11% to $4.3 million, which was offset by a 10% decline in total RP pool to $21.17. Bumble app revenue declined 1% to $220 million, with an unfavorable impact from FX of approximately $1 million. Bumble app paying users grew 10% to $2.9 million. On a sequential basis, we added 52,000 paying users. The increase in payers was offset by a 10% year-over-year decline in RP pool to $25.58. The decline was primarily due to geographic mix shift to international. Badoo app and other revenue of $53 million was 1% lower in Q3, but up slightly, excluding FX impact. Badoo and other paying users grew 14% to $1.4 million, and as Lidiane noted, we began to see the early benefits of Badoo's revenue re-architecture driving improved payer conversion. On a sequential basis, we reported our sixth consecutive quarter of positive Badoo and other payer net ads, which came in at $65,000. Badoo and other RP pool declined 6% to $12.03. Turning now to expenses. Total GAAP…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. First question comes from Ygal Arounian with Citi Group. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Ygal Arounian

Analyst

Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Maybe first, understanding, you know, we're not getting 2025 guidance here, but also as we think about the progress that you guys have seen so far, which is nice to see, trying to balance that out with the comments around, you know, how it'll take time to play out multiple quarters. Just any more help in how to think about the products that are contributing, you know, the kind of curve of the contribution and, you know, how any other kind of benchmarks that we should be thinking about or looking to as we make the progress here?

Lidiane Jones

Analyst

Thank you for the question. You know, when you look at our investments, as I outlined last quarter and emphasized again this year, we're really focused on three primary areas. Strengthening our ecosystem. As I mentioned today, we're really excited about the early progress that we're seeing on the test market. That means ensuring that we have the most engaged customers across the ecosystems that we play in and we're seeing really positive signs that our investments are moving in the right direction from engagement and growth of customers. The second is ensuring customer success. And we're focused on success end to end, from customer support to safety to innovative experiences on our product. So the fall roadmap is very incurred, fall release that we just launched last week, very incurred on customer success. Our winter release is going to take even bolder steps at innovating. And aligned to that is the third major initiative, which is really reimagining and evolving our revenue strategy to ensure across every one of our subscription tiers we're offering value to our customers and that they feel really good about the value that they're getting across each one of them. So we're looking at all of that. We're really optimistic from the progress that we've seen in Q1. We're extending the markets that we're doing this marketing balance and customer acquisition balance. And we will be providing more in the quarters ahead, but definitely confident that we're in the right track.

Ygal Arounian

Analyst

Thanks. And maybe just a follow-up on, maybe this is more for a new, but on the buybacks at 140% of free cash flow this year, you've set that up. It looks like that's continued here in the early part of 4Q, balancing with margin expansion and investments that you think are needed to kind of move the product in the right direction. Just philosophically how you're thinking about that? Thank you.

Anuradha Subramanian

Analyst

Yes, sure. Happy to go. So I think if you think about our capital allocation philosophy, as we've always said, we think about it in sort of three broad buckets. The first one is around investing in our organic growth and making sure that we're continuing to invest for the revenue growth that we know we have ahead of us. The second one is around M&A. We've said in the past that we continue to be opportunistic from an M&A perspective with a pretty high bar for what that looks like. And the third one is to return capital back to shareholders. And we have the buyback program in place. We are always trying to balance each of these priorities depending on what's most critical to us. So I think going forward, you'll see us continue to take a balanced approach. I think for next year, you know, having top line growth is definitely going to be one of the most important things we are focused on. So you'll definitely see us focus on that as a company. And then we obviously have our buyback program, which we will continue to be opportunistic about.

Ygal Arounian

Analyst

Thank you, Anu.

Operator

Operator

We now turn to Shweta Khajuria with Wolfe Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Shweta Khajuria

Analyst

Okay. Thank you for taking my questions. Let me try two, please. First is on ecosystem health, Lidiane. Of the three things you talked about, the first one is ecosystem health. It includes profile creation and maybe a shift in marketing strategy. And you've addressed both of these. So I guess my question is, could you please provide specific examples of other actions that you have taken in the quarter and or plan to take in the near term that focuses on rebalancing the health of the platform that you think will be most impactful? That's question one. And the next question is on customer experience. How should we think about the headwind on top of the funnel from your safety initiatives? And is it fair to say that you started that initiative mainly in the third quarter this year? You'll come to that next year post Q2. Thanks a ton.

Lidiane Jones

Analyst

Yes, thank you. On the first part of your question, definitely a marketing rebalance for us to ensure that we're acquiring the right types of users. And that has been really positive. In addition to that rebalance, one of the key efforts I mentioned in my prepared remarks is about strengthening organic marketing, especially in our mature markets, which has also shown really positive signs. The other efforts here for us when we think about healthy ecosystem is related to product innovation. We are embarking on this new model of a regular product cadence so that we operationally are constantly innovating for our customers. So what you're seeing from our fall release or to winter and you'll see more into 2025 is a regular cadence of innovation. What that does is ensuring that we're also attracting and retaining great customers that are going to have great experiences with that and success within our portfolio of apps. So we're really excited about ecosystem is about certainly acquiring but also retaining our customers. So you're going to see a lot of that from us in the quarters ahead. When we think about customer experience and safety, there are many things here related to safety that we look at. And it's not just you shouldn't think of safety just as a headwind. It's also an important attractor for a lot of our customers. So there's a few key things in earlier this year. We have already started to improve our modeling to ensure that we are for photo modulation, for example, as you saw in my prepared remarks, ensures that good customers that are interested in being in our ecosystem are not unfairly blocked. So that is actually welcoming more customers into our ecosystem that we're not getting through because of our modeling issues. So there's many efforts there. Additionally, capabilities like ID verification that will be optional for our customers, again, gives customers a lot more choice and feel the safety that they would like to have in our ecosystem. So we think safety capabilities are both about keeping customers safe, attracting the right customers and retaining an addition to ensuring that we don't have users that we don't want in the ecosystem. So all in all, we are optimistic about those as positive investments for user growth.

Shweta Khajuria

Analyst

Thank you, Lidiane.

Lidiane Jones

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Eric Sheridan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Thanks so much for taking the question. Just one, if I could, just sticking on the theme of the potential and the revenue and the user side for Badoo over the longer term. What continue to be key learnings about that as an asset in your portfolio and how it informs key priorities for that part of the business looking out of the medium to long term? Thanks so much.

Lidiane Jones

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Eric. This year, we took a very customer centric approach to Badoo, because Badoo does serve a customer base that's complementary to our Bumble customer base. And with the changes that we made on the product, we did a brand relaunch, we're rebalancing, modestly rebalancing our brand and growth marketing to Badoo. And what we're seeing is that we're seeing a positive engagement in the customer base, as well as benefits in ARPPU from customers getting the right value from our revenue, the architecture. So we're optimistic about Badoo. I think Badoo, in the right investments, with the right placement within our portfolio, can have greater potential in the medium to longer term. So definitely optimistic about the role Badoo can play for us.

Operator

Operator

We now turn to Nathan Feather with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Nathan Feather

Analyst

Hey, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. Two on my end. First, are you seeing any green shoots with Gen Z, either from the product or marketing changes you've made so far, or any difference, whether it's in engagement with the platform, signups, et cetera? And then the second, thinking about elections in the past, did you see any impact on engagement either before or after? And how do you think about that when guiding to 4Q? Thank you.

Lidiane Jones

Analyst

Thank you, Nathan. In terms of engagement, positive engagement, Q3 has been a really positive one for us from a marketing perspective, with our shift towards reigniting organic marketing for Bumble, which has always been part of our DNA, has always been a differentiator. That has been an incredibly positive set of outcomes for us from Gen Z women in the top cities that we've activated that sort of balanced strategy. We have seen positive gains in NPS. We've seen positive gains in fellowship in our social channels, as well as positive sentiment. So all in all, our marketing rebound is yielding positive results for us in targeting and gaining more support from Gen Z women. We are also spending a lot of time with younger users to understand their needs in this category and why we feel excited about the role that Bumble can play in truly reimagining the category. There's a lot of really great insight about what our customers want. So from a product future perspective, a lot of our customers' voices being incorporated into that, certainly a lot of Gen Z women's voice. So truly excited to be working with so many great customers. In terms of the election, well, historically, we haven't seen significant shifts in our customer base in business. But what we do expect at this moment in time is that our mission and what we have seen from our customers, our mission, our values have remained incredibly critical for customers, not only over the last decade, but we definitely believe it is critical now that we stay strong. In supporting women and women's experience, so that's going to be a key part of how we support customers and their needs.

Anuradha Subramanian

Analyst

And Nathan, in terms of impact to the way we thought about Q4, we don't really think that there's been a big impact in terms of what we've seen leading up to the election. So we are guiding to a revenue outlook that is largely consistent with what we guided to in our Q2 running, so not much to report on that.

Nathan Feather

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Benjamin Black

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you for taking the questions. So, you know, in the past, you've obviously spoken about the free experience and how you think that may need to evolve in an effort to help the ecosystem. So I'm curious, you know, how do you expect the free experience to change over the next coming quarter, if not years? And then maybe as we think ahead to 2025, I've understood that we're not getting any guidance. But, you know, if you think about the product release plans toward the end of the year, generally speaking, you know, how should we think about the composition of growth? You know, sort of between, you know, payers and our people as we head into the New Year? Thank you.

Lidiane Jones

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Great, Benjamin. Let me start with the free experience first. You know, we recognize that this is a really important moment for the company to get right. And a key part of our revenue evolution is ensuring that we're getting the fundamentals right for our customers and their experience. So we are taking a step back and looking at the entire journey from top of funnel all the way to the most optimized subscription tier that we have, which is premium plus. And so, of course, in that journey comes the free experience. We really believe that a great free experience for all of our customers should also be one that helps people see the value of Bumble right from the get go. And that will positively entice them to want to pay to get greater value. So in that regard, we see greater opportunities in the near term to increase our conversion rate from free to pay with some of the initiatives that we're going to drive in the next few quarters. So we're quite bullish and excited about that. Secondly, is that as we are innovating our product rhythm and the cadence and the regularity and the velocity of our innovation, I think a big part of what I've been talking about in this last couple of earnings has been the company transformation that we're undergoing. It's really ensuring that we're innovating at a fast pace that we are attracting the best talent in the industry. And that's going to really help us bring a greater degree of innovation that will increase the value creation for higher tiers. So really a lot of excitement for us in terms of the value of our subscription tiers and the rearchitecture of our value balancing for our customers. But I'll pass it on to Anu to talk a little bit more about the second part of your question.

Anuradha Subramanian

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hey, Ben. So as you can imagine, we are deep in the middle of planning for next year. And this encompasses the work that we are doing around the three pillars that Lidiane talked about, which is customer experience, ecosystem work, as well as reimagining of the revenue and subscription experiences. And this will impact how we think about our key KPIs in terms of user growth, payer growth, revenue growth, et cetera. And we've talked today a little bit about some of the tests that we are running and the early results that we're seeing from all of these, which have been quite encouraging. I think it's a little bit early to talk about specific puts and takes around how this translates into some of the metrics that we look at. But we look forward to providing more details on our next earnings call, for sure.

Benjamin Black

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Robert Coolbrith with Evercore ISI. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Robert Coolbrith

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Great. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking our questions. I wanted to ask if you could go back to the marketing tests that you've done in Europe and the related uplift or improvements in ecosystem balance that you're driving there. Anything more you could tell us about the changes in channel mix or messaging and the plan to expand that strategy? And then also understand that you're more focused on organic and the more established markets. But just wondering if there are any learnings from the targeted marketing that you can apply to some of the more established, more mature markets to maybe accelerate the drive toward ecosystem health and demographic balance? Thank you.

Lidiane Jones

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Yes, Robert. Great question. So for emerging markets, there is both a balance of brand expansion and awareness as well as a very tailored marketing channel mix. And so one of the greatest things that I am excited about in K3 is how rapidly we're ensuring our marketing insights and operations to allow us that effectively. And what we have seen is in this particular market, we have balanced for a greater investment on acquiring the right users, particularly demographic, especially women in this case. And we were very effective at that acquisition with the right ROI. So that's very positive in such a short amount of time. For more mature markets, what we have done, as you noted, is balancing with organic because the brand awareness is already there. And it's really about delivering a set of broader experiences for our users. New York is a great example of a market that we put a lot of effort and saw really positive results in a single quarter. And the great thing about holding an organic event in New York, like sponsoring the WNBA and having events where our customers can be a really big part of that, is that it also amplifies digitally through our social channels, through customers that are telling their own stories. So there is a positive scaling of that as well that we're excited about. So the key message here is that we are being very thoughtful and deliberate about our marketing strategies based on our presence, as well as the brand awareness of the markets that we're in. An exciting thing from my perspective is from an international expansion, MOMO is a fairly young company, still in many markets. And so we have a great opportunity to drive international expansion and growth over the quarters ahead.

Robert Coolbrith

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you.

Lidiane Jones

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. We now turn to Laura Champine with Loop Capital. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Laura Champine

Analyst

Thanks for taking my question. If I work through your outlook, there's certainly a scenario for sequentially lower margins in Q4. Would that come from higher advertising spend or is there something else there that I might be missing?

Anuradha Subramanian

Analyst

Yes, hey, Laura. So if you look at our full year EBITDA margin outlook, we've maintained what we had said previously, which is to expand our margin by at least 200 basis points. So there's no change to our full year outlook. In Q3, we came in ahead of where we had expected to be from a margin perspective. And it was primarily because we shifted some marketing spend from Q3 to Q4 to sort of better coincide with the fall release that we just had in October. So that's why you see Q4 margin being lower. And as you said, it will be because of higher marketing spend. But in aggregate, our plans in terms of what we intend to do for the full year has not changed. It's just a shift in spend between Q3 and Q4.

Laura Champine

Analyst

Understood. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we have no further questions, so this concludes our Q&A and today's Bumble third quarter 2024 financial results conference call. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.