Razvan Radulescu
Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead
Thanks Matt, and good afternoon. It's my pleasure to share with you the financial highlights from Blue Bird's fiscal 2022 third quarter results. The quarter-end is based on a close date of July 2, 2022 whereas the prior year was based on our July 3, 2021 close date. We will file the 10-Q today August 10, after the market closes. Our 10-Q includes additional material and disclosures regarding our business and financial performance. We encourage you to read the 10-Q and the important disclosures that it contains. The appendix attached to today's presentation includes reconciliations of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP measures mentioned on this call as well as important disclaimers. Slide 11 is a summary of the third quarter results for fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2021. It was another operationally tough quarter for Blue Bird with reemerging supply chain disruptions and commodity cost pressures that have impacted many manufacturing industries. With these challenges Blue Bird unit sales volume of 1,726 units was 298 units, lower than prior year due to the constrained supply base, which was impacted by the Ukraine war and the COVID lockdowns in China. We experienced supply issues for multiple components across a number of suppliers. Through July however, we started to see improvement in the number of missing parts per bus as Matt already mentioned. Blue Bird backlog of 6,300 units at quarter-end is incredibly strong and almost 60% higher than a year ago. As of today, our production capacity, which will remain constrained for the balance of the calendar year is full through March and we are selling fiscal 2023 Q3 production slots. Our ability to complete and deliver all of these units on time will depend on supply stability of key components. Consolidated net revenue of $206 million was $9 million higher than prior year of that bus net revenue was $187 million, up by $5 million versus prior year. Our average bus revenue per unit increased from $90,000 to $108,000 which was largely the result of pricing actions taken over the past 10 months as well as the higher mix of electric buses - 3.5% versus 1.5%. Supply constraints EV sales were at the level of 60 units or 29 more than last year. Parts revenue for the quarter was $19 million, representing an improvement of $5 million compared to the prior year. Over the past few quarters, we have seen improvement in part sales, which is an indicator that the normal work for school districts is getting back to pre-COVID levels, although there has been some disruption also in our parts business due to supplier shortages. Gross margin for the quarter was 10.5% or 280 basis points lower than the same period last year and in line with our messaging on the Q2 call. We expected to see margin compression versus prior year, but significant sequential improvement from Q2 as our pricing started to take hold. Over two-thirds of the units sold in the quarter were relatively low margin backlog units that were price throughout last year. I will discuss this in detail later in the presentation. In Q3, fiscal 2022 adjusted net income was negative $3 million or $8 million lower than last year. Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $9 million was down compared with the prior year by $4 million, adjusted diluted earnings per share of negative $0.09 was down $0.28 from the prior year. Slide 12 shows the walk from fiscal 2021, Q3 adjusted EBITDA to the fiscal 2022 Q3 results. Starting on the left of $13 million lower bus volume of 298 units was offset by higher parts revenues for a neutral impact. Pricing, net of economics was slightly negative in the quarter driven by higher steel and commodity costs and margin compression as we work still through the old backlog. This is very encouraging to see as we are finally seeing that pricing caught up to economics i.e. material cost increases. Operating efficiencies however, deteriorated by $4 million from last year, driven by higher freight costs approximately $500 more per bus and supply disruptions and parts shortages generating rework in the plan. SG&A and engineering expenses excluding restructuring expenses were over $2 million lower than last year due to the significant cost control measures that were put in place. Additionally, in the other category, our JV results from Micro Bird were close to $2 million lower versus the prior year. They have also been affected by supply chain shortages predominantly the microchip shortage which is impacting the chassis allocation from Ford and GM. Moving to Slide 13, we wanted to give you a perspective of what the underlying normalized results for Q3 would have looked like, absent of the supply chain constraints. On the volume side, we plan to build and sell at least 2,000 units in the quarter, which we were not able to do due to additional shortages. Have they booked the planned units and avoiding the costs incurred to shuffle the production schedule profit would have been approximately $16 million. In an average Q3, we would have booked approximately 2.5,000 units, which would produce an incremental $5 million. So given our current cost structure in a normal volume quarter we would have made approximately $21 million of adjusted EBITDA. On Slide 14 you can clearly see that we made significant progress in virtually all aspects of the profitability compared to Q2 despite slightly lower bus volumes. Bus revenue per unit is up 10,000 and parts revenue is up as well. Adjusted EBITDA is up almost $20 million, gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin are both up 9% points. This is a clear indication that our recovery plan and plant operational improvements are working and we are ready to deliver profitable growth once the supply chain is stabilizing more. Moving on to the balance sheet and liquidity on Slide 15, we ended the quarter with cash of $26 million, debt was the $214 million or $47 million higher than last year. Net debt of $187 million was $32 million higher than prior year. It is worth noting that we were in compliance with all covenants at the end of the quarter. There were two active financial covenants in our credit agreement for the period. First, the trailing 12 months EBITDA, as defined under the credit agreement was $8.7 million versus a minimum requirement of negative $6.8 million. Second liquidity as defined under the credit agreement was $60.2 million versus a minimum covenant for Q3 of $15 million. Therefore, we remained in compliance with our credit agreement covenants. We are in active discussions with our bank syndicate regarding the next steps for our credit agreement. Moving on to Slide 16, we have already covered the cash and debt on the previous slide. The reduction in operating cash flow and adjusted free cash flow was primarily driven by trade working capital due to our inventory build in the quarter. I will discuss this in detail on the next slide. On Slide 17, you will see on the left side, the increase in raw material and working process we experienced during Q3 to understand the development we have to go back to January and February when the supply chain, starting to improve. As a result, we decided at the time to ramp up production in Q3 significantly compared to Q2. Our lead time frozen zone for suppliers is 10 weeks out, so we placed increased order quantities at the end of Q2. Then the Ukraine war started and the China COVID lockdowns followed, and not all of our suppliers could deliver our increased scheduled, but many did. During Q3, we adjusted back down our production schedule, but a large number of the inventory was already on the ground or in transit. And many buses were already set up and as a result, we had close to 600 buses in working process by quarter end compared to a normal level of approximately 300. Regarding raw material components, it was not only elevated by the parts coming in, but also because we are increasing our strategic pre-buys of major components from Ford and Cummins. The EV buses are an increasing portion of our business and they come with a three times factor material cost, once you count the batteries in the EV powertrain kit. However, we have already seen a significant inventory reduction of $15 million by the end of July and they expect that trend to continue throughout Q4 and into Q1 of fiscal 2023. In summary, we have an incredibly strong demand, which is now supported by higher inventory levels and strategic major component pre-buys positioning us to enter strong into fiscal 2023. On slide 18, I would like to give you an update regarding how we are working through the backlog with all pricing. The area sections on the graph represent the unit volumes by month on the left axis. In Y's can see that almost half of the volume was build and sell in fiscal 2022 comes from fiscal 2021 orders. Which in today's inflationary environment are yielding low, but improving margins due to our recent backlog pricing action. In light blue we are taking up units order during Q1 of fiscal 2022 although some were quoted also during the second half of fiscal 2021. So there are still all 2021 units. On the right axis as horizontal lines, you can see the relative improvement in standard gross margin per unit with the multiple price increase is taking hold. In fact, we have doubled our standard gross margin on our backlog versus the end of fiscal 2021. Together with our dealer partners, we are also able to increase partially the prices for backlog units beginning with May production and recover about half of the missing pricing for each respective price level compared to today's level. Therefore, our average revenue per bus is improving with every quarter. Additionally, we already implemented a, variable pricing options PPI-based partly this year and we will announce another variable pricing option raw material basket-based later this year. Together with quarterly production slot allocation for second half of fiscal 2023 more to come on this during our next earnings call. On Slide 19, you see how the steel prices shot back up $300 to $500 per ton in March and April and diesel went above $5 per gallon. While we are looking prices for the 20% of steel approximately that we use in our own fabrications our suppliers are mostly on a quarterly raw material escalator which will hit our bottom line in Q4 of fiscal 2022. These impacted almost immediately our shipping cost via trucks and the general Tier 2, 3 and 4 supply chain disruptions started to unravel drove more air freight and expedited shipments. The recent COVID lockdowns in China further compounded the supply chain disruptions during Q3. The good news is that steel prices resume the downward trend through July. So this should favorably impact our Q1 of fiscal 2023. On Slide 20 looking at full year fiscal 2022 as previously discussed, we had an operationally difficult Q3 due to supply constraints. This environment is expected to continue into Q4 and reduce our throughput increase. Therefore, we are lowering our revenue expectation for the year to $750 million to $800 million. Further impacting our outlook, we are experiencing a recent temporary semiconductor shortage affecting our EV bus production in the second part of Q4. This shortage impact high margin units and inventory levels by a factor of 3X versus an average bus. Therefore, we are revising our adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2022 to a range of $5 million to $15 million. The adjusted free cash flow is expected to be better than last year, but remained negative after Q3 year-to-date on a range of negative $45 million to negative $35 million. With that I will now turn the discussion back to Matt who will walk you through our key focus areas and business outlook.