Razvan Radulescu
Analyst · Craig-Hallum. Please proceed with your question
Thanks, Matt, and good afternoon. It is my pleasure to share with you the financial highlights from Blue Bird's fiscal 2021 fourth quarter and full year results. We will file the 10-K today, December 15 after the market closes. Our 10-K includes additional material and disclosures regarding our business and financial performance. We encourage you to read the 10-K and the important disclosures that it contains. Slide 10 is a summary of full year results for fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2020. It was a tough year for Blue Bird, especially in fiscal Q4 with a difficult operating environment as a result of supply chain disruptions that have impacted many industries, especially those that use microchips and resin in their products. Further compounding the challenge, raw material prices rose during 2021, especially steel up 300% and aluminum up 150%. The cost of overseas transportation increased nearly tenfold. Blue Bird's unit sales volume of 6,700 units was significantly lower than prior year. However, as Matt described, there are about 2,000 units that could not be shipped in the third and fourth quarter as a result of part shortages. Supply issues were experienced for multiple components across a number of suppliers. While the disruptions continue, our team works tirelessly on a daily basis to find alternative sources for parts where possible and to engage with all of our impacted suppliers in order to find solutions and expedite delivery of vital parts to our factory. Despite the supply disruption, there is good news, demand for our buses is up significantly versus last year and total order received in the period were for 9,700 units. If we would have had received all of the parts on a timely basis, the sales for the year would have been more than 8,500 units, almost at the same level as fiscal 2020. In addition, Blue Bird had a backlog of over 4,200 units at fiscal year-end. 3,000 units more than the end of fiscal 2020. At this time, our supply constrained production capacity for the first half of fiscal 2022 is full and Q3 is filling up quickly. Our ability to complete and deliver all of these units on a timely basis will depend on supply stability of key components. Consolidated net revenue of $684 million was $195 million lower than prior year due to the delayed sales already mentioned. Of that, bus net revenue of $625 million which was down by $197 million versus prior year. Average bus revenue per unit increased from 92,700 to 93,600 which was largely the result of annual pricing taken in the summer of 2020. Alternative fuel vehicle sales comprised a record 50% of our sales in the year, up by 2 points due to the outstanding success of the new 7.3-liter engine in our gasoline and propane units. EV sales of 146 units were slightly down due to supply chain disruptions. However, firm orders exiting the year were at more than 250 EVs, up almost fivefold from the 52 last year. Parts revenue for the year was $59 million, representing an improvement of $2 million compared to the prior year. The improvement in part sales we saw in the third and fourth quarter is an indicator that the normal work for School District is starting to get back to pre-COVID levels, although there has been some disruption due to supplier shortages. Gross margin for the year was 10.5% or 40 basis points lower than the same period last year. The decline was driven mainly by three areas: first, incremental costs for freight and production due to supply disruptions. Second, the fixed cost absorption impact of building 2,000 less units; and third, higher raw material and input costs. I will discuss this more on the following slide. As noted on the third quarter call, we expected to see raw material and component cost increases in the fourth quarter due to steel and other commodities as well as the continuation of higher costs that are being experienced in all modes of freight. As Matt mentioned, we have implemented a total of 11% price increase to help offset these headwinds, however, this will fully materialize in the second half of fiscal 2022 as we have to work through the current backlog first. In fiscal '21, adjusted net income was $8.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA of $34.1 million was down compared with prior year, while adjusted EBITDA margin was 5%, a year-over-year decrease of 1.2 percentage points. Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.31 was down from the prior year. Overall, it was a tough year with the first half impacted by schools still being partially closed and with remote learning due to COVID and the second half impacted by supply chain disruptions and rapid rising in raw material prices and freight costs. Slide 11 shows the walk from fiscal year 2020 adjusted EBITDA to the fiscal year 2021 results. Starting on the left at $54.7 million, lower bus volume in the year of 2,199 units, partially offset by higher parts volume of $1.3 million, resulted in a negative $33.1 million impact. Pricing net of economics of negative $4.2 million is mainly the result of higher steel and commodity costs as well as higher cost of resins. The team, however, was able to offset approximately half of these headwinds year-over-year. Our ongoing procurement initiative continues to show positive results at $5.3 million. Efficiencies and lower operating expenses were favorable year-over-year by $11.4 million, despite the lower production volume and higher input cost of the plant. To the far right, we have shown the overall impact of supply disruptions, loss volume and efficiency. As you can see, due to part shortages, we are not able to ship about 2,000 buses. These delayed sales were worth approximately $38.6 million, including the impact on plant efficiency and ongoing freight issues. Absent these headwinds, our profit for the year would have been about $72.7 million or approximately 8% of revenue, in line with the 2019 profits and on lower volumes. This is a result of the cost structure improvements we have been implementing in the past several years. Moving on to the balance sheet and liquidity on Slide 12; we ended the year with cash of $11.7 million, down $32.8 million from the same time last year. Debt was at $209.4 million, $35.3 million higher than last year due to a higher draw on our revolver to fund working capital requirements. Net debt of $197.7 million was $68.1 million higher versus prior year. It is worth noting that we were in compliance with all the covenants at the end of the fiscal year. There were two active financial covenants in our credit agreement for the period. First, the trailing 12-month EBITDA as defined under the credit agreement, was $30.8 million versus a minimum requirement of $27.5 million. Second, liquidity as defined under the credit agreement, was $60.4 million at year-end versus a minimum covenant of $15 million. Therefore, we remained in compliance with our credit agreement covenants. As we evaluated the risks associated with supply chain and our throughput ability to build and sell buses, we deem this prudent to seek additional flexibility on our term loan covenants. We are pleased to report that we have concluded the fourth credit amendment with our bank syndicate led by Bank of Montreal. This will provide covenant relief through the first half of fiscal year 2023 and access to additional $10 million of revolver liquidity. Additionally, we have filed a Form S-3 shelf registration for $200 million which will provide us with the flexibility to raise additional capital over the next three years, should this become necessary to further support our growth. Moving on to Slide 13; we have already covered the cash and debt on the previous slide. The significant deterioration in operating cash flow and adjusted free cash flow was primarily driven by higher working capital and secondarily by lower profits due to lower volume. Traditionally, Q4 is the strongest cash-generating quarter for the company. However, in fiscal year '21 Q4, we finished the year with record levels of work in process and almost finished goods which impacted our liquidity. On Slide 14, going into the fiscal year 2022, our margins are temporarily under pressure. We are facing increased cost for raw materials, freight, labor and generally supplier disruptions. And while we have a substantial backlog of school buses, many of them will not benefit from the pricing actions we took in July and October of 2021. These effects, combined with the current low throughput due to supply chain constraints will create low first half of fiscal '22 profitability, even by historical seasonally adjusted comparisons. We are taking actions as outlined on this slide in order to improve our costing stability over the medium term and reduce our pricing exposure going forward. Those actions will start to show results in the third quarter of '22 and become fully effective in the fourth quarter of '22 due to the time lag, especially on the pricing side given the current backlog. On the costing side, we are increasing our steel hedging program and extended to our key suppliers. We are engineering second and third source suppliers for key components in order to increase our throughput and we are resourcing components where needed. We are also selectively exploring vertical integration options via make/buy analysis. On the pricing side, we have implemented 11% price increase to recover non-cost increases. We'll monitor our win lose rate in the marketplace and adjust as needed. To reduce our exposure, we already reduced our core guarantee from 90 to 60 days. Additionally, we will watch raw material price developments and adjust our pricing as needed. However, the most important change is introducing a variable pricing structure for our dealers and customers while maintaining a higher fixed price option is desired. Let me walk you through this on the next slide. Moving on to Slide 15. The traditional school bus pricing model with guaranteed fixed pricing for up to 12 months or sometimes even longer is not working anymore in the current inflationary environment. We want to be the leaders not only in alternative powertrain offerings but also in introducing new business mechanisms that provide customer flexibility and ensure proper market dynamics and risk sharing. We are implementing a variable pricing model for all the multiyear deals and for all the high-volume orders that go beyond six months from the coating time. For high-volume orders inside six months, we will offer a higher fixed price option. The same applies for small volume orders that are expected to be built and shipped inside 12 months. For the low volume, quick turnaround quotes and orders with deals inside six months from the quote, we will keep the existing model of fixed pricing. The dealer and customer can choose which model they prefer based on the risk profile and flexibility. We are confident that the new variable pricing model will be understood and accepted by the school bus industry and having the higher fixed price option where needed will support adoption. On Slide 16, looking at fiscal year 2022, as previously discussed, we are expecting a difficult first half due to supply constraints and temporary margin pressure. We expect to see gradual relief beginning in the third quarter as supply chain constraints are resolved due to new suppliers coming on board and the 11% price increase begins to take effect. In the fourth quarter, we expect to be at higher production levels and with normalized margins as the full price increase goes into effect. At this point, we are not able to provide the exact quarterly guidance due to high uncertainty. Nevertheless, with the premises outlined before, our full year guidance is at revenues of $750 million to $850 million, with adjusted EBITDA range of $30 million to $50 million or 4% to 6% of revenues and with adjusted free cash flow of $35 million to $55 million. The significant improvement on free cash flow year-over-year is driven by the expected normalization of inventory at year-end of fiscal '22. With that, I will now turn the discussion back to Matt, who will walk you through our business priorities and long-term outlook.