Rich Kinzley
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open
All right, thanks Dave, and good morning, everyone. Financial results for the third quarter did meet our expectations, considering that in the third quarter we had unfavorable weather impacts on margins compared to last year and we recorded revenue credits associated with the settlement at Wyoming Electric that Dave mentioned. I'll get into more detail on these items on the following slides, but in short, these items explain the majority of the difference between the third quarter last year and the third quarter of this year. I'll start on Slide 11, where we reconcile GAAP earnings to earnings as adjusted a non-GAAP measure. We do this to isolate special items and communicate earnings that better represent our ongoing performance. This slide displays the last five quarters and trailing 12 months as of September 30, 2018. Looking from top to bottom on the slide, the first special item related to one-time acquisition costs incurred as part of the SourceGas acquisition and integration, which was wrapped up at the end of 2017. The second item relates to tax reform. At the end of 2017, we recorded a benefit related to tax reform and in the first and third quarters of this year, we recorded expenses associated with the new law. The expenses this year relate to our continued evaluation of the impact of the new law on our financial statements as well as impacts from continued revisions to the law. For example, in the third quarter, the IRS posted changes related to bonus depreciation, which resulted in recognition of additional expense. The third item you see related to the tax benefit of a legal restructuring effectuated in Q1 2018. These items were not indicative of our ongoing performance and accordingly, we reflected them on an as-adjusted basis. Our third quarter EPS was $0.42 compared to $0.52 for the third quarter last year. The waterfall chart on Slide 12 illustrates major drivers bridging Q3 2017 to Q3 2018. All amounts on this chart are net of income taxes. First, you'll note, we had reduced revenue in 2018 as a result of recording reserves related to passing tax reform benefits on to our utility customers. These revenue reductions are offset by reduced income taxes. We've reached agreement with regulators in all our states relating to tax reform with the exception of Wyoming, where we plan to file our tax reform plan in the fourth quarter. Outside of the revenue reduction for tax reform, gross margins were flat. Gross margin in Q3 2018 was impacted by approximately $5 million after-tax or the equivalent of $0.09 of EPS by the settlement at Wyoming Electric and negative weather year-over-year. Other drivers for the quarter were typical year-over-year expense increases to support our growth efforts. I'll get into more detail on margin and expense drivers in the following slides. Slide 13 displays our third quarter income statement. Gross margin decreased $7.6 million year-over-year, due to the items I noted on the previous slide, most notably revenue reserves for tax reform, which again are offset below the line by reduced income tax expense. Operating expenses increased to support our growth initiatives and DD&A was up as a result of additional customer-focused utility investments. Moving below operating income, interest expense increased year-over-year due to slightly higher average debt balances in Q3 this year versus last year and due to higher interest rates on our variable rate short-term debt. As you know, the short end of the interest curve has risen substantially this year. Income tax expense was down from the prior year driven by tax reforms corporate rate reduction. I will point out the $7.5 million of tax expense in Q3 includes $5.3 million related to adjustments resulting from tax reform, which is an as-adjusted item for the quarter as I noted on Slide 11. Moving down to income from continuing operations as adjusted, we generated $23.1 million for the quarter, down from $29.2 million last year. You'll note, our diluted share count decreased year-over-year. This is due to the application of the treasury stock method of accounting related to the unit mandatory securities we issued in late 2015 to help fund the SourceGas acquisition. As Dave mentioned, on November 01 this year, we issued common shares upon conversion of the unit mandatories. I'll talk more about that shortly. But prior to conversion, we were required to apply the treasury method of accounting, whereby we include a portion of the shares in our diluted share count. The number of shares we included is based on the average daily closing price of our stock during a given reporting period. We added approximately 1.3 million shares to our diluted share count this quarter compared to 2 million additional shares in Q3 last year. I'll now discuss each business segment. Slide 14 compares Q3 2018 to Q3 2017 for our electric and gas utility segments. On the left side, the results of our electric utilities for the third quarter this year reflect $3.1 million lower gross margin and a decrease of $9.5 million in operating income. Q3 2018 gross margins at the Electric Utility saw the benefits of new transmission investment recovery and higher non-energy services, including power marketing and technical services. Also new this year in margin for the electric utilities is rent income for our new corporate headquarters, which is owned by South Dakota Electric and charged out to all our operating subsidiaries. The net impact on consolidated results is a wash. These positives to gross margin were more than offset by the revenue reserve for tax reform, the revenue credits for the Wyoming Electric settlement and unfavorable weather. These gross margin changes are detailed in the table on Page 9 in yesterday's press release. Operating expenses at the electric utilities increased $6.3 million as a result of higher labor and benefits, outside services and facility costs as well as higher property taxes and depreciation on additional utility capital investments. Moving to the right side of slide 14, the results at our gas utilities for the third quarter of this year reflected $2 million lower gross margins and a decrease of $7.1 million in operating income. Positive gross margin impacts from customer growth in non-utility services were offset by revenue reserves for tax reform and negative weather impacts year-over-year. Expenses increased by $5 million due to higher labor and benefits, outside services and facility costs. The increased facility costs at both the electric and gas utilities are offset by increased rent revenue at the electric utilities as I just noted. Additionally, gas utility depreciation was higher in 2018 as a result of utility capital investments. As a reminder, our natural gas utilities generate their earnings in the first and fourth quarters with expected breakeven or losses in the second and third quarters. The gas utilities results for the third quarter met our expectation. Next, I'll talk about weather impacts compared to normal at our electric and gas utilities. To be clear, the weather-related numbers are on Pages 9 and 10 of the press release yesterday and on Page 12 of this presentation reflect weather impacts in Q3 this year compared to Q3 last year. I'll now be comparing Q3 2018 to normal weather with these comments. The third quarter represents the main cooling season at our electric utilities with limited heating degree days at both our electric and gas utilities. Also, there's typically Q3 benefit at the gas utilities from gas load related to irrigation activity in our service territories. This activity is dependent on both temperature and precipitation. While cooling degree days at our electric utilities were 9% higher than normal during Q3, 2018, heating degree days were 20% below normal at the electric utilities and 27% below normal at the gas utilities. Also, it was unusually wet in 2018 in our key irrigation areas in Q3 this year, reducing irrigation activity. Compared to normal, weather conditions negatively impacted Q3 margins this year at the electric and gas utilities by approximately $500,000 and $2.2 million respectively. This amounts to a negative Q3 impact to EPS related to weather of $0.04 compared to normal. Year-to-date through September 30, weather has had a $0.03 positive EPS impact compared to normal. On slide 15, you see the power generation operating income increased by $900,000, primarily from higher power purchase agreement pricing and an increase in megawatt sold. The power generation segment continued to realize strong contract availability from its generating units outside of planned outages and is positioned to continue its strong earnings and cash flow contributions. Also on Slide 15, you'll see our mining segment had a $300,000 operating income increase. For the quarter, operating costs increased by $400,000 - excuse me, decreased by $400,000 from lower maintenance costs and savings on labor and benefits, while revenue was $200,000 lower, due to a 6% decrease in tons sold. Our mine continues to perform at high level with sales almost entirely to on-site mine-mouth plants and roughly half our sales based on a cost plus pricing methodology. Slide 16 shows our capitalization. At September 30, our net debt-to-capitalization ratio was 64.6%, 140 basis point improvement from year-end 2017. This was driven by the increase in retained earnings, thanks to stronger earnings for the first nine months of 2018. Slide 17 describes our unit mandatory conversion, which occurred last week. These securities were issued in November 15, as part of the financing of SourceGas acquisition, as Dave mentioned. With the conversion of the unit mandatories to common equity last week, our unit mandatory securities were delisted. In August, we issued $400 million of senior unsecured notes due 2033 at a 4.35% coupon. Concurrently, we successfully remarketed the $299 million principal amount of junior subordinated notes component of our equity units. Each of these equity units was comprised of a contract to purchase Black Hills' common stock and an interest in our 3.5% junior subordinated notes due 2028. We exchanged the junior subordinated notes for senior unsecured notes and canceled the junior unsubordinated notes. The remainder of the upsized debt offering was used to pay down a portion of our commercial paper borrowings. On November 01, the stock purchase contract settled. We received gross proceeds of $299 million and issued approximately 6.37 million shares of Black Hills' common stock. Proceeds from this stock issuance will be used to retire the $250 million of 2.5% notes that are due in January 2019 with the extra proceeds used to again reduce commercial paper borrowings. As a result of these activities, our net debt-to-capitalization ratio will decline below 60% in the fourth quarter. And as Dave noted, as of November 1, we have just under 60 million shares of common stock outstanding. With the units settled and associated common stock issued, we will no longer apply the treasury method after November 1. Slide 18 shows our debt maturity schedule. The schedule was updated to reflect our capital markets activities executed in the third quarter. Dave noted that in the third quarter, we extended our $300 million term loan into 2020 and extended our revolving credit facility through mid-2023. We're in great shape from a liquidity perspective and our debt maturities are very manageable. Slide 19 shows our investment grade credit ratings. In August, Standard & Poor's upgraded us to BBB Plus, and Fitch recently affirmed their BBB Plus rating. We are committed to maintaining our strong investment grade ratings. On Slide 20, we're increasing the lower end of our 2018 earnings guidance range by $0.05 with the revised range now at $3.35 to $3.50 per share. This guidance range assumes normal weather in the fourth quarter as it pertains to the winter heating season at our utilities, which is our biggest risk to meeting the guidance range for 2018. Slide 55 in the appendix sets forth the major assumptions related to this 2018 guidance. Also we are initiating earnings guidance for 2019 with a range of $3.35 to $3.55 per share. As we've noted in previous calls, we must grow 2019 net income by approximately 8% to keep EPS flat with 2018 due to the dilution created by the share issuance last week associated with the unit mandatory conversion. Further, we are initiating preliminary guidance for 2020 with a range of $3.50 to $3.80 per share. While we don't intend to make two years of guidance our regular practice, we are providing this preliminary 2020 guidance to demonstrate confidence in our customer-centric growth strategy, which includes substantial capital expenditures to maintain and enhance the safety and reliability of our utility systems. The major assumptions relied upon to formulate the earnings guidance for both 2019 and 2020 are noted on Slides 56 and 57 in the appendix. You'll see that we assume equity issuances through our at-the-market equity program of $25 million to $50 million in both 2019 and 2020 to help increase the CapEx program, which increased by over $200 million for 2018 through 2022 as compared to the CapEx we disclosed last quarter. Lin is going to discuss our strategy around this CapEx program in his comments. And with that, I will turn it to Lin.