Mark W. Ohlendorf
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets
Thanks, Andy. First, I'd like to make a few comments about the fourth quarter and then move on to some more details on our 2015 guidance. In the fourth quarter, Brookdale produced $0.53 per share of CFFO. That excludes integration, transaction-related and EMR expenses of $46 million. The fourth quarter includes approximately $11 million or $0.06 per share of insurance adjustments primarily related to some large settlements of prior period cases and a few large individual medical claims. The fourth quarter results were heavily influenced by the occupancy in the portfolio. Rather than look at the reported consolidated occupancy numbers, let me give you the occupancy data in a more meaningful and comparable manner, that is as if the third quarter transactions had happened on July 1. On that basis, our consolidated average occupancy decreased sequentially by 40 basis points from the third quarter of 2014 to 88.3%, ending with the average monthly occupancy in December of 88.1%. For the legacy Brookdale portfolio, the sequential quarterly change was a 10-basis-point decrease. However, the average occupancy in December was up 10 basis points from the average occupancy in September. For the legacy Emeritus portfolio, the sequential quarterly change was an 80-basis-point occupancy decline. However, the average occupancy for December declined 120 basis points from the average occupancy in September, reflecting the impact of the ongoing integration. Senior housing rates, as reflected in the reported same-community data for senior housing for the fourth quarter of 2014 showed a continuing trend of strong rate growth in the legacy Brookdale portfolio with a 3.9% increase in the fourth quarter versus the fourth quarter of 2013. For the legacy Emeritus portfolio, the year-over-year same-community rate growth was an increase of 90 basis points, similar to the last several quarters. Looking at the consolidated portfolio detail on the same-store expenses, the increase was 5.9% quarter-over-quarter and without the insurance adjustments was 3.9%. The legacy Brookdale same-store expenses were up 9.3%. Three reasons for this unusually large increase include: one, we had the insurance reserve adjustments; two, our same-store expenses in the fourth quarter of 2013 actually declined by 1.5%, thus we faced a difficult comparison; and three, there were some consequential impacts from the integration activities evidenced by items such as increased overtime. We also believe we were not as crisp in our cost management of labor expenses. Steps have already been initiated to address that issue. On the legacy Emeritus same-store side, expenses were up 1.8%. Finally, we issued equity in September and used $276 million of the proceeds to pay down debt and $51 million to purchase 8 formerly leased communities during the fourth quarter. Turning now to our outlook for 2015. Before going in to the detailed numbers, I'd like to discuss a bridge between our prior guidance and our current guidance. We changed our CFFO guidance all told by $0.35 per share or approximately $65 million. The largest change relates to occupancy. With a lower starting point, projected occupancy for our current guidance range is 1.25% to 1.5% lower than we had previously forecast. Also, the senior housing margin is lower by 100 basis points or so, such that the incremental margin on the occupancy shortfall was over 80%, thus $45 million to $50 million of the $65 million CFFO shortfall. Our overall senior housing rate is also projected to be slightly lower than previously forecasting, impacting the CFFO guidance by $5 million to $10 million. Finally, the timing of ancillary services rollout is now pushed back slightly from the original plan as we work through all of the various licensure requirements. This impacts the guidance by another $5 million to $10 million, though the fourth quarter 2015 run rate is projected to be roughly equal to the original plan. Some additional details. Due to the Emeritus merger that closed in July and the ACP transactions that closed in August, the comparability between years for virtually all metrics is less meaningful. As a result, we'll also give the change between the fourth quarter of 2014, which is the first quarter with the reflected run rate, and the fourth quarter of 2015. Looking at top line growth. The full year impact of the Emeritus merger will have a significant impact on reported results, such that we expect consolidated senior housing revenue to grow by roughly 30%. Because the run rates for average occupancy and revenue per unit for the 2 legacy portfolios differed materially, the year-over-year consolidated as-reported metrics were ecstatic. However, the fourth quarter to fourth quarter growth rates reflect comparable metric performance for the portfolio. We expect the center point of our guidance range reflects an increase in average occupancy in our consolidated portfolio in the range of 140 to 160 basis points for Q4 2015 over Q4 2014. While this may seem aggressive, we're starting from a low point. We expect to regain market share and will benefit from the planned capital investments in the portfolio. We expect the center point of our guidance range reflects rate growth in the 3.5%, plus or minus range, for Q4 2015 over Q4 2014. This increase is for the entire portfolio and reflects the fact that we raised most of our assisted living in-place resident rates on January 1. Our average resident unit capacity is projected to remain static as expansions from Program Max are expected to offset one-off dispositions of assets. For the senior housing business, we expect fourth quarter costs to increase in the 2% to 2.5% range, as labor costs increases of 2.5% to 3% driven by wage inflation and healthcare plan cost increases are offset by synergies in the accounting conformity impacts in the former Emeritus portfolio. The net impact for the revenue growth and cost growth is expected to produce fourth quarter operating income growth for the senior housing business in the 7% to 8% range. For the ancillary service segment, we expect to see a 50%-or-so increase in the full year 2015 revenues due to the full year inclusion of Nurse On Call and the rollout of the ancillary services into the former Emeritus locations. We expect to produce a similar increase in operating income over 2014 as margins remain level. We expect margins for senior housing and ancillary services combined to be 34% to 34.5% for 2015. I would note that in the press release, the pre-announcement we issued last week, we erroneously referred to that margin as the senior living margin. Additionally, we expect the full year 2015 to include management fee revenue in the range of $55 million to $60 million, cash G&A expenses, excluding noncash comp and integration transaction and EMR rollout costs, will total approximately $235 million to $245 million. Integration, transaction-related and EMR costs are estimated to be $35 million to $40 million in 2015. Cash lease expense is expected to be $375 million to $380 million and, in addition, we expect consolidated net entry fee cash flow in 2015 to be in the $5 million to $6 million range. With those drivers, we expect that adjusted EBITDA, which is cash-based, therefore excludes noncash charges and also integration transaction and EMR costs, will grow to the range of $930 million to $960 million for full year 2015. Continuing on for full year 2015, we expect cash interest expense to be $375 million to $380 million, capital lease amortization is forecast to be approximately $50 million, state cash taxes are forecast to total $5 million to $6 million and CFFO contribution from our unconsolidated ventures is projected to be in the range of $50 million to $55 million. As an aside, we intend to change our definition of adjusted EBITDA, beginning in 2015, to include the CFFO contribution of our unconsolidated joint ventures, though this guidance does not reflect that change. We've also updated our projections on future federal cash taxes and now do not expect to become a federal cash taxpayer until at least 2017, given the lower expected operating results, planned purchases of lease communities and other factors. We expect that CFFO per share for 2015 will be in the $2.60 to $2.75 per share range, excluding any integration, transaction and EMR costs and any unplanned acquisition or disposition activity. For capital expenditures, we forecast that routine maintenance CapEx, which impacts CFFO, will total approximately $65 million to $75 million for 2015. Our investment in EBITDA enhancing in major project CapEx will total 107 -- $170 million to $175 million, plus an additional $40 million to $45 million of renovations will be reimbursed by third parties. Corporate CapEx is projected to be $60 million to $65 million, primarily for technology and the rollout of the ancillary services. We plan to undertake $150 million to $175 million of Program Max projects, including $60 million to $65 million funded by Brookdale and the balance funded by landlords or lenders. Finally, there will be $40 million to $45 million for acquisition, integration and CapEx. We do not provide quarterly guidance, but I'd like to remind you that historically, we've seen a pattern where CFFO in the first quarter is somewhat soft because of seasonal occupancy declines. Typically, CFFO builds from there with operating expenses peaking seasonally in the third and fourth quarters. We'll now turn the call back to the operator to begin the question-and-answer session.