Earnings Labs

Belden Inc. (BDC)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 9, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to this morning's Belden Incorporated Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Release Conference Call. Just a reminder, this call is being recorded. At this time, you are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Matt Tractenberg. Please go ahead, sir.

Matthew Tractenberg - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, Tracy. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today for Belden's fourth quarter and full year 2015 earnings conference call. My name is Matt Tractenberg. I'm Belden's Vice President of Investor Relations. With me here this morning are John Stroup, President and CEO and Henk Derksen, Belden's CFO. John will provide a strategic overview of our business and then Henk will provide a detailed review of our financials and operating results followed by Q& A. We issued our earnings release earlier this morning and we have prepared a slide presentation that we will reference on this call. The press release, presentation and transcript of these prepared remarks are currently available online at investor.belden.com. Turning to slide two in the presentation, during this call, management will make certain forward-looking statements. I'd like to remind you that any forward-looking information we provide is given in reliance upon the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The comments we will make today are management's best judgment based on information currently available. Actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make, and the company disclaims any obligation to update this information to reflect future developments after this call. For a more complete discussion of factors that could have an impact on the company's actual results, please review today's press release and our annual report on Form 10-K. Additionally, during today's call management will reference adjusted or non-GAAP financial information. In accordance with Regulation G, we have provided a reconciliation of the most closely associated GAAP financial information to the non-GAAP financial information we communicate. This reconciliation is in the appendix of the presentation and has been posted separately to the investor relations section of our website. I'll now turn the call over…

Operator

Operator

Matt Tractenberg your first question is from Shawn Harrison with Longbow Research.

Shawn M. Harrison - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Can you hear me?

Matthew Tractenberg - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Yeah. Hi, Shawn. John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

Shawn M. Harrison - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Good morning. I guess, the first question is, considering guidance was unchanged for 90 days ago, the world – at least the stock market feels a little bit different. If you could maybe talk about what puts and takes you've seen across the businesses as you think about 2016 now, if any, relative to when you held that analyst – I guess, it was just 60 days ago the Analyst Day there. John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, Shawn. I would say from the December Analyst Investor Day we had until now, internally nothing's really changed. We haven't really seen any changes in order patterns, any changes in customer sentiment. I would say, externally, it sure feels to me like the rest of the world is starting to feel the same way we were expressing ourself last December. So it does feel to me like the sentiment may be is caught up a little bit to what we were sharing with folks back in December, and, of course, all the way back to Q2 when we first said, look, we're starting to see some weakness in our Industrial funnel. But the quarter played out almost exactly as we expected, strengthened Tripwire, strengthened Enterprise, strengthened Broadband, weakness in our Industrial businesses. Our orders in January are exactly where we thought they would be. So although none of us like having to deal with weakness in our Industrial businesses, I would say that things are happening very much as we thought they would.

Shawn M. Harrison - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

That's helpful, John. I guess one of the focus areas for the year is, within Broadcast, particularly Grass Valley, is seeing a potential bump either from the U.S. elections or the Olympics. Is there any change in thinking about how that benefits Grass Valley in 2016? John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I'd say our thinking is the same. We believe there'll be some growth in 2016 compared to 2015 with Grass Valley for the reasons you cited. We're also encouraged by the success early, albeit, of our IT products having booked seven projects and shipped four in the fourth quarter, that's obviously a very good sign. And orders in January were good for Grass Valley. We are entering the year with more backlog than we had a year ago, $15 million more. So if you just take the backlog head start compared to the revenues in 2015, you've got almost 4% growth right there. So it feels to me like we're on track for growth in 2016 with Grass Valley compared to 2015.

Shawn M. Harrison - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Great. And one last question if I may, is there any debt reduction plan in the first half of 2016 incrementally? John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, as you know, Shawn, our free cash flow is seasonally backend-loaded. In the first quarter, we have a number of cash outflows, including rebates to our distributor partners, including the payment of our management incentive program. And so I think it's unlikely that there would be substantial debt reduction in the first quarter or half, most of it's going to come in the second half.

Shawn M. Harrison - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Great, John. Thanks so much and congrats on the results everybody. Hendrikus Derksen - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President-Finance: Thank you. John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Noelle Dilts with Stifel. Noelle Dilts - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Thanks. Good morning. John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Hendrikus Derksen - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President-Finance: Good morning (26:32). Noelle Dilts - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: My first question is pretty broad, but just hoping you could walk us through some of your expectations for the four platforms as we look into 2016 and how to think about revenue growth and margins across the four platforms? John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sure. So in 2016, it's our expectation that we're going to continue to see strong revenue growth in our Network Security platform our Enterprise Connectivity platform; and in the Broadcast platform, as I mentioned, we would expect to see modest growth with Grass Valley, and I would expect to see strong growth again out of our Broadband Connectivity business. I think our Industrial businesses will experience contraction on a full-year basis. I think it will be not as severe as what we experienced in the fourth quarter. I think that we're looking at probably mid single-digit declines in our Industrial platforms in 2016. From a margin point of view, I think that all of our businesses are going to see margin expansion. Clearly, in our Broadcast platform, we have the benefit of the cost reduction programs we started in the second quarter. In our Industrial platforms, we have the benefit of the productivity initiatives that we announced last quarter. And as I mentioned, we've got $6 million of planned benefit in 2016 from those initiatives and an additional $11 million in 2017 bringing it to $17 million. I'd say the only platform where margin expansion…

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Steven Fox with Cross Research.

Steven Fox - Cross Research LLC

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. First question for me, the Industrial Connectivity book-to-bill that you highlighted -- can you just sort of dig into that a little bit in terms of what types of applications or products is driving that positive book-to-bill? John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So I think the book-to-bill for Industrial Connectivity is 1.04. Hendrikus Derksen - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President-Finance: 1.06. John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sorry; 1.06. Thank you, Henk. And if I look at the order trends, I think that the strongest order trend was in the U.S. compared to the shipment trend. But I don't have detail for you by vertical, Steve...

Steven Fox - Cross Research LLC

Analyst

Okay. John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: ...in terms of the order versus the shipments. Let me talk to you a little bit about shipments, though. So in the fourth quarter, our Industrial business, as you can imagine, it was weak – relatively weak in all the verticals, but particularly weak in oil and gas. So that was a trend throughout the entire year and it also showed up in the fourth quarter. So, discrete, as an example, has continued to hang in pretty well. And, in fact, in the fourth quarter revenues in our Industrial platforms were up in Europe. And I think that's predominately because of the weak euro and European machine builders benefiting from a better cost structure. The North America market was the one that was most challenging, and within North America, oil and gas was especially challenging. So, for example, our revenues in the oil and gas market in the fourth quarter globally were down 30%, and within United States and Canada it was down about 35%. So going into 2016, it's our expectation that our markets are going to contract again. We think they're going to be down somewhere around 3% to 5% with most of that contraction coming out of the oil and gas sector. We think it's probably down another 30% in 2016.

Steven Fox - Cross Research LLC

Analyst

Great. That's helpful. And then in terms of just the Enterprise Networking business, you had good growth there on an organic basis, and the margins improved. So, going forward, I guess, two-part question. One is, is there room for further margin improvement? And then, secondly, if you think about that market, where would you expect to get growth from more so than less so as you look at the year? Thanks. John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So I think the lever that's most obvious for margin expansion with our Enterprise platform is continued growth of our Connectivity business, which is obviously been the primary area of focus for the team, with the change in our go-to-market model two years ago with an emphasis on trying to drive more connector revenue. So that's clearly an area of focus and one of the best levers for margin expansion. And then, secondarily, some of the manufacturing footprint actions that we've taken, the Enterprise team is benefiting from that as well. So we are trying to address our cost structure also. But most of it, I think, is going to come through growth in the connectivity products.

Steven Fox - Cross Research LLC

Analyst

Do you have the mix as to how much sales you got from connectivity for 2015 or Q4 maybe? John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So for 2015, our connectivity revenue, it's still relatively small, it's about 25%, roughly, of the total business. And if we were reflecting the market, it would be more like 50%/50%. So we still have a lot of potential to sell connectors into existing customers that are buying our cable, but not yet buying our connectors.

Steven Fox - Cross Research LLC

Analyst

Great. That's all very helpful. Thank you so much. John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you. Hendrikus Derksen - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President-Finance: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instruction] We'll go next to William Stein with SunTrust.

William Stein - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Great. Thanks for taking my question and congratulations on the good results today. I'm wondering if you can talk about your interest and ability to make further adjustments to the portfolio in 2016 either from an acquisition or from a divestiture perspective. John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So on the acquisition side, there is obviously a couple of considerations. One is, as we mentioned already, our focus is on achieving the leverage target of three times EBITDA. So that's our priority right now. And so that's where our capital will be allocated first. And then, secondly, in my experience, when you are in a macroenvironment like this, it takes a little time for the sellers' valuation expectations to adjust. And so if you have people out marketing their business today, they have a tendency to have a expectation on price that's more rearview mirror versus forward-looking. So I think that, for those two reasons, I think if we did any acquisitions in 2016, they are likely to be modest in size. In terms of opportunities for divestitures I think that we're always considering as you would expect us to do, whether or not there are things in the portfolio that don't fit our long-term plan, whether that's vertical exposure, geographic exposure, product technology obsolescence, things of that nature. And there is certainly nothing that's happening right now that's imminent, but we're continuously evaluating it. And if we feel like there is an opportunity that makes sense for our shareholders, then we would do so.

William Stein - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Thanks for that. Maybe one more if I can on the bookings trends relative to what everyone reads in the papers and what we look at on our screens all day. You alluded to this in your comments about the backlog and order book coming in. It sounds – I think you characterized that sort of in line with your expectations. It sounds, if anything, it looks like it's strengthening a bit. And I'm wondering if you can comment as to whether you think there is typically a feedback loop that would be generated at some point from folks looking at the markets and newspapers and deciding to tap the brakes on orders. And if so, how quickly would you expect that to come into play, or do you think we're well past the potential for that to happen, and instead the markets are just sort of reacting to somewhat older news? John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, I think that – first, let me clarify my earlier comments. So the comment I made about improved backlog position on a year-over-year basis was specific to our Broadcast platform. So we're encouraged by the fact that our Broadcast platform is entering the year with more backlog than it did a year ago and that gives us confidence for our growth expectation. As it relates to our orders in general, our fourth quarter orders were as we expected. Our January orders have been as we expected. It feels to me like you really just have to be very specific about your end-market as it relates to your expectations. So I think that we're going to continue to see low oil prices throughout the year. I think we're going to continue to see a strong U.S. dollar throughout the year, and that, of course, is not good news for Industrial businesses. And as a result, our expectation is our Industrial businesses are going to contract on a year-over-year basis. Our non-residential exposure within Enterprise still looks good. We have roughly a nine-month lag between the starts of new construction and our products. Right now, those are holding up well. Broadband looks good. Cyber security looks good. So I think that when we were discussing with everybody back in the second quarter and then again in the third quarter about some of the trends we were seeing, quite honestly, that was a more difficult conversation, because we were sharing information that seemed to be ahead of the market. Now, the conversation seem to be a lot easier only because I think the market is caught up. So I just feel like our view of the world right now is very consistent with what we've seen over the last six months. And at this point, we don't have anything more to add.

William Stein - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

If I can squeeze one more in. John, you mentioned that, I think, it's U.S. oil and gas specifically down 30% this year and next year you expect it to be down another 30%. Is that sort of – if you put those together, should we think about this as 60% below peak, or was peak actually higher and this is down even more? And specifically what I'm trying to get to is, whether the effects of this end-market are so de-risked that perhaps you could see another modest drop in oil prices and the revenue impact would be mitigated at this point. John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Okay. Well, let me just start by making certain that the data we share with you is accurate. On a full-year basis globally, our oil and gas business was down approximately 24%. Within North America, it was down approximately 27%. So this is more or less a global phenomenon as you might expect. We think our planning is that on a global basis, the oil and gas market will be down another 30%. That is our current view. That's all off of 2015 which is likely a peak. I don't know that for certain, but my guess would be that 2015 probably – pardon me, 2014 is likely a peak and my guess is that our oil and gas business in 2014 was the peak. In terms of how to de-risk that or sort of characterize it; first of all, it's probably important to know that with this decline, in 2015 oil and gas is 14% of our Industrial business, which means that it's roughly 5% to 6% of our total business. So if it was down further, it would be down further on a relatively small percentage of the total business. So is there a chance oil prices could go lower? Yes. I think it could. Is there a chance that the decline could be more than 30%? Yeah. I think it could. But it would be off that very small number as it relates to the entire Belden business.

William Stein - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

John, that's really helpful. Thanks and congrats on the solid outlook. John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Chip Moore with Canaccord.

Chip Moore - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.

Analyst

Yeah, thanks. Don't want to beat a dead horse on the oil and gas, but back in December I thought we were talking $40 oil, just on that last commentary, maybe sensitivity around that. John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So when we were together in December, we tried to share with folks kind of our view on oil prices and what the impact might be. I would say that from December till now, our view on the oil and gas market is largely unchanged, maybe slightly more negative than it was in December. But as it relates to our full-year guidance for the corporation, there is as many things that changed favorably as this particular item that changed negatively. So the thing I would emphasize is that it's a relatively small percentage of the total business, 5% of the total Belden business. So in the fourth quarter oil prices came down a little bit, but at the same time, our Network Security business had stronger orders than what we expected, we saw great strength out of our Enterprise Connectivity and Broadband Connectivity business. And that's why I reinforce my earlier comments that, I think this portfolio is exceptionally well-positioned for environments like this. I never wish a recession on anyone, but I have to acknowledge that recessions are a wonderful opportunity for Belden to demonstrate what a great business we have and what a great team we have in terms of our ability to execute. And when the tide is rising, it's pretty easy for everybody to deliver good results, and when things are tough I think it's a little bit harder. So I just feel really good about where we are.

Chip Moore - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.

Analyst

That's very helpful. And on the Tripwire booking strength, I know we talked about utility cross-selling starting to gain a little traction. Is that already showing up in bookings or is that something we should look out for later in the year into 2017? Thanks. John S. Stroup - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, it was absolutely in our bookings in 2015. And I would expect it to continue in 2016. So a part of this really strong non-renewal booking growth in the fourth quarter includes utilities.

Chip Moore - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you.

Matthew Tractenberg - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Tracy, any other questions?

Operator

Operator

There are no questions – no further questions at this time.

Matthew Tractenberg - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Great. Well, thank you very much and thank you everyone for joining today's call. If you have any questions, please reach out to the IR team here at Belden. Our email address is investor.relations@belden.com. Have a great day everyone.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes our call for today. You may now disconnect from the call and thank you for participating.