Joe Dziedzic
Analyst · Macquarie. Please go ahead
Thanks, Tom. Good morning, everyone. I’ll start this morning by comparing our full year results against the guidance we provided at the beginning of 2015. Last year at this time, we were estimating EPS of $1.55 to $1.75, driven by improvements from operations of $0.89 to $1.09. We ended the year up with $1.32 from operations, well above our original estimate and we needed every bit of it to cover the much higher than expected currency impact of $0.64 versus the $0.35 we expected at the beginning of 2015. Not everything went the way we had projected in 2015, particularly in the U.S. but we did deliver at the high end of our original guidance. Our 2016 EPS outlook has not changed. We expect continued operating improvement to overcome currency headwinds and drive another year of significant earnings growth from a $1.69 to a range between $2 and $2.20 per share. My next few slides will provide an overview of our fourth quarter results and full year results, then I’ll cover segment results with an emphasis on the challenges and opportunities we faced in our U.S. operations. I’ll close with the more detailed review of the assumptions behind our 2016 guidance. The fourth quarter was our most profitable quarter of 2014, accounting for $0.58 of the full year EPS of $1.01. This year fourth quarter 2015, we improved $0.17 operationally but currency completely offset these gains. This slide shows our fourth quarter reported revenue, operating profit and EPS and the impact of currency on each. Revenue declined entirely due to currency. In constant currency, operating profit grew by $6 million but currency was negative $16 million. The operational improvement for the quarter was led by Argentina’s volume and pricing increases, lower corporate expenses, price increases in Brazil combined with solid seasonal volume growth, and continued improvement in Mexico. The currency headwinds continued to be driven by the Argentine peso, the Brazilian real, the euro and the Mexican peso. The Argentine peso devalued in mid December from about 9.5 pesos per U.S. dollar to about 13 pesos per U.S. dollar. A significant Argentina devaluation was already included in our 2016 guidance. So, this was not a surprise. Looking once again on our full year results, the operational improvement of $1.32 from a base of $1.01 was driven by variety of factors. The $50 million of cost productions, the growth in Argentina and Asia, the turnarounds in Mexico and Chile and the lower corporate expenses more than offset the decline in the U.S. and the unfavorable impact of currency. We were also able to lower the 2015 tax rate to 37%. At our Investor Day presentation in October, we said, we were working on using the Latin America withholding taxes we pay as an offset against our U.S. income tax. At that time, we were confident we could deliver this reduction in 2016. But, added that we were working to accelerate it into 2015, not only were we able to do so, we also realized an even greater benefit from some onetime recoveries of previously recognized taxes. In summary, our full year revenue grew 3% organically but currency had a negative impact of $467 million. The operating margin rate expanded from 3.7% to 5.3% as operating profit grew $33 million despite $50 million of unfavorable currency. EPS grew 131% last year on a constant currency basis. Overall, a very strong performance, and there are still significant opportunities to drive additional profit improvement in 2016. Now, I’ll cover segment results, beginning with the U.S. Our single biggest opportunity for improvement in 2016 is our U.S. operations. But before discussing 2016, I’ll address the disappointing 2015 results after a fairly strong start to the year. The challenge of adding new business while implementing significant headcount and cost reductions in late 2014 and early 2015 pushed volumes and profits higher through the first half. Unfortunately, we did not manage to increase volume and the cost actions effectively enough. As a result, profits fell sharply in the second half of 2015. In hindsight, our global cost reduction plan was generally well executed but we cut too deeply in the U.S., given our operational capabilities in the branches. Our overhead in the branches was too high but was necessary given our inefficient manual processes. As a result, we had to increase spending in 2015 to address service quality, staffing challenges and fleet availability. As staff turnover increased, we also experienced higher security cost and additional inefficiencies. This increased spending and higher security costs were the primary drivers of the profit decline in the second half of 2015. In addition, we completed the transition of a significant and profitable money processing contract to a competitor, as expected in the second quarter, which put even more downward pressure on the second half revenue and profits. Despite the challenging end to 2015, we believe the U.S. has laid a strong foundation for significant improvement in 2016. We’ve made solid progress on our productivity initiatives and have brought our service quality back in line. For example, we completed the rollout of the centralized [ph] building project and handheld scanners, which we are working on to add greater functionality to drive more savings. We optimized 17% of our routes through our route logistics optimization projects and we integrated 162 one-person vehicles into our operations. In late 2015, we delayered the U.S. field operations. We continued to roll out new KPIs and dashboard tools for our branch managers and have increased the target of one-person vehicles to be placed in service in 2016. We expect to grow margins to the 4% to 5% range in 2016 from these and other actions initiated in 2015. Given the weak finish to 2015, we do not expect significant improvement in the first quarter, but we do expect the second quarter to be closer to our 4% to 5% margin target and the second half should be even stronger as our one-person vehicles ramp-up and the other initiatives yield significant savings. We expect the U.S. margins to be at or above 6% in the second half of 2016. During the fourth quarter of 2015, we delayered the U.S. field operations by eliminating the Regional VP and Area Director roles. We replaced these layers with district VPs who will provide increased support to our branch operations, as we implement changes necessary to improve profitability at the branch level. This structure moves decision-making closer to the branches where we serve our customers and should allow us to make changes faster to drive efficiencies. New incentive plans have been rolled out to provide more performance-based variable compensation at the branch level. Another important change is the new COO who brings significant logistics experience to our U.S. business. At our October 6th, Investor Day, we talked about our introduction of lower-cost one-person vehicles that reduced labor, fuel and maintenance cost. We’re also retrofitting vehicles from our existing fleet to enable them to operate with one crew member. At the end of 2015, we reached 162 one-person vehicles, well ahead of our October projection of 100. For 2016, we increased our original plan from 300 of these vehicles to achieve at least 460 by year-end. In addition to lower labor, fuel and maintenance costs, we expect to reduce total labor hours, increase our stops per worked hour, and maintain or improve current premise and drive times between customer locations. This rolled out plan is critical to achieving our 2016 profit improvements. During the fourth quarter, we rolled out a CIT dashboard that provides branch management with improved visibility into data that enables them to drive process improvement. The dashboard provides daily visibility into the performance of a route and its crew. These include the time required to check in at the branch in the morning and check out in the evening, the time spent on our customer’s premise, and the total route time, all critical elements in measuring and managing the performance of a route crew. These dashboards will continue to evolve to support branch management and driving efficiency and improving profitability. Mexico delivered a strong fourth quarter and ended the year at 7.3% margin, right in the middle of the 6% to 8% range we provided at the beginning of the year. In local currency, fourth quarter profit and margin rates were at all time highs, since we acquired full ownership of the business in late 2010. Mexico was on the trajectory we need, to deliver 10% margins in 2016, which was our original margin goal when we acquired what was an unprofitable operation. Delivering a 10% margin rate in Mexico is critical to achieving our 2016 guidance. Fourth quarter profits in France fell slightly due to currency headwinds. For the full year, France faced a challenging environment, as slight volume declines were offset by growth in retail solutions. Revenue declined significantly due to the weaker euro but France was able to expand the margins from 7.6% to 8% during the year. In addition to reducing our cost, we are repositioning this business to pursue higher margin solutions within the cash supply chains of our customers, and we expect to see the benefits of these efforts in 2016. Brazil delivered a strong quarter in the midst of a deteriorating macroeconomic environment with pressures from all directions. The team executed on retroactive price increases as predicted and benefited from solid seasonal volumes, even though they were slightly lower than in the past. Approximately half of the full year profit from Brazil was in the fourth quarter but the significant devaluation of the Brazilian real caused a year-over-year decline. We expect 2016 to continue to be difficult but our Brazilian team is up to the challenge. Profits in Canada for the quarter and full year were down due mainly to currency. But Canada delivered a solid 8% margin for the quarter and maintained the same full year margin rate of about 7%, despite a slight revenue decline and higher pension cost. The steady performance of our global market segment continued into the fourth quarter. The combined operating margin rate of the 35 countries that comprised this segment was 17%, up 250 basis points over the year ago quarter. The Latin America region delivered 15% organic revenue growth and solid margin growth, almost entirely due to Argentina. Results in Chile also improved due mainly to recent restructuring actions but lower profits in Colombia largely offset these improvements. The EMEA region delivered lower but still solid margins of 8.6% as revenue declined as expected due to both currency and lower volumes. The organic revenue decline in Germany was expected as we exited a guarding contract of last year. Asia continues to perform well on all fronts with an exceptionally strong margin rate of 23% in the quarter and 18% for the full year. Year-to-date cash flow from operating activities on a non-GAAP basis increased $9 million despite approximately $25 million of restructuring and severance payments. Capital expenditures and capital leases were down $28 million versus last year due to both currency and decreased spend across most segments. Net debt decreased by $49 million from the end of 2014 due primarily to lower CapEx spend, increased CFOA, and the cash collected on the sale of a facility in Mexico. Since I’m on the slide covering cash flow and net debt, I would like to highlight a change in our future cash payments to our U.S. pension plan. Due to the low equity returns in the market in 2015, we are now projecting payments to the U.S. pension plan starting in the year 2020. Slide 33 in the appendix provide the payments by year but we’re now estimating about $50 million spread over four years. I’ll close with the review of our 2016 outlook and the assumptions behind it. Our 2016 revenue outlook assumes 5% organic growth and 9% unfavorable currency impact, resulting in about $2.8 billion of revenue, which is lower than our guidance at the end of 3Q ‘15 due to increased currency pressure. We expect to grow operating profit to a range between $190 million and $210 million despite $29 million of unfavorable currency impact. The currency impact is due primarily to the devaluations of the Argentine peso and the Brazilian real. Our operational improvements come from the U.S. and Mexico delivering their targeted margins, the payments business improvement from the U.S. prepaid card, and the rest of the world contributing another year of solid profit growth, led by continued organic growth in Argentina and Brazil, the benefits of the business transformation in France and the benefits of additional restructuring actions. Despite the lower revenue, our EPS guidance is still $2 to $2.20. We estimate our tax rate will be 39%, which is higher than the 37% in 2015 due to the one-time tax benefits realized from our actions in 2015. This slide summarizes our 2015 year-over-year results and our outlook for 2016. Our performance in 2015 was not perfect but our overall results were exceptional, and we delivered EPS at the high end of our guidance despite significant currency headwinds. We grew our margins from 3.7% to 5.3% and expect to grow it to about 7% in 2016. And we expect another year of significant earnings growth in 2016. That concludes my comments this morning. Denise, let’s open it up for questions.