James L. Muehlbauer
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Today I plan on covering the financial highlights of our third quarter results, along with some additional context on our outlook for the rest of the fiscal year. Before we get into the details of the quarter, for the benefit of our listeners who might be newer to the Best Buy story, it's worth mentioning that the Q3 results we are discussing today really reflect 2 different periods of consumer purchase behavior. First is a non-holiday period, including activity in September and October; and second is the beginnings of the important holiday selling season in November, especially the big Black Friday kickoff weekend. Looking back on the past several years, we have learned that it is important to assess the performance for the full November and December period to get a more complete view of customer behavior and performance for the holidays. For Best Buy, this is especially relevant considering the significant weighting of earnings derived from the month of December. This was also part of the rationale to change our fiscal year, which will result in the month of November, December and January being reported together in our new Q4 next year. Given that as important context, as we look at our Q3 results and current expectations for the fourth quarter, we believe that we remain on track to deliver both the revenue and adjusted earnings performance for the year, consistent with the guidance ranges that we discussed on last quarter's call. Moving into the highlights from the third quarter. Our Domestic business delivered both positive store traffic and comparable store sales growth. This was the first period that we've seen positive Domestic comps since the first quarter of fiscal 2011. In-store traffic is growing for the first time since Q3 of FY '10. Customer response to our multichannel offers were strong, and we performed well in the most popular CE categories for the holidays. Our online sales performance also accelerated significantly in the quarter as Brian discussed earlier. We were pleased with our top line results and the improvements in our traffic metrics during the quarter. The investments we made to improve sales and market share, coupled with customer purchases that were more heavily weighted towards value and promotional items, resulted in a lower gross profit rate in the quarter. I'll provide more color on that in a minute, but the big takeaway is that these activities paid off in positive comparable store sales growth of 1% for the quarter that were strengthened by November and concluded with a plus 7% sales growth on Black Friday. The biggest positive sales drivers in the Q3 Domestic comp included tablets, appliances, eReaders, mobile phones and movies. Total mobile computing had very strong comparable store sales growth of 16% in the quarter. Within this performance, notebook comp sales trends improved for the third straight quarter, delivering a mid-single-digit decline that was slightly ahead of our plan for the quarter. Appliances continued its momentum with comparable store sales growth of 14%. The operational changes we've made in the appliance area and the improved competitive offers continue to help us grow our market share in this business. eReader products delivered triple digit comps that once again had a meaningful impact on the total Domestic segment revenue growth. Consistent with our commentary in the second quarter call, the mobile phone business benefited from the launch of the new iPhone 4S halfway through our third quarter, as well as other new devices introduced during the period. These new devices were a key driver of the 9% comparable store sales gain achieved during the quarter in mobile phones. We expect even stronger growth in mobile phones during our fourth quarter given that these products will be available for the full quarter. The movies category also delivered comparable store sales growth as we drove strong promotional activity in this area to improve traffic. Movie sales also benefited from a stronger lineup of new releases that occurred during the quarter. As Brian highlighted earlier, our online channel was critical in driving growth throughout the quarter and especially in November and Black Friday weekend. The 20% increase in Q3 online sales was led by double-digit growth across nearly all key product categories, with tablets, televisions and laptops having the biggest impact. Television comparable store sales trends improved significantly, down low-single digits versus the double-digit declines in previous quarters. This was above our plan and represents an important improvement on one of our largest businesses. Notable areas of Domestic segment comparable store sales declined during the quarter included digital imaging and gaming. Digital imaging's revenue decline was due to continued overall industry softness and the decline in gaming was driven by industry weakness, primarily on gaming hardware. Total gaming comparable store sales did show meaningful improvement from the prior quarter, led by high single-digit growth in gaming software, driven by strength in both new and pre-owned titles. Sales in our International segment increased 1%, with favorable impact of foreign currency and net new store growth offset by a 1.7% comparable store sales decline. Our Five Star business in China delivered flat comparable store sales, which included a strong Golden Week performance. Best Buy Europe experienced mid-single-digit comp declines similar to the trend experienced in Q2. In Canada comp sales were flat, reflecting a strong sequential improvement from the prior quarter when comps were down high single digits. Key improvements versus the prior quarter came in areas like gaming, software computing and televisions. Turning now to gross profit performance in the quarter, total gross profit of $2.9 billion was down 1%. Domestic gross profit dollars declined 3% as the rate declined 130 basis points after being up approximately 90 basis points in the previous year. From a macro perspective, the decline in the Domestic gross profit rate was driven by a combination of investments we made in promotional activity in key categories and customers purchasing more value-orientated items. Getting into the specifics, the 130-point basis reduction was driven by much stronger promotional activity, notably in mobile computing, televisions and movies versus the previous year. Within the television and computing categories, consumers also purchased a relatively higher mix of value-orientated priced items. We also saw strong consumer demand in mobile computing products, which have lower gross margin rate on average. And finally, similar to last quarter, our successful tech support service offering had a negative impact on our year-over-year gross profit rate. As discussed last quarter, revenue and profits from this program are recognized over the life of the agreement, which is typically 1 to 2 years. While that explains the key drivers of the rate decline from last year, the appropriate follow-up question is why was the decline larger than was anticipated at the beginning of the quarter? Our original plans for Q3 anticipated the Domestic gross profit rate that would be down less than this. I would point to 3 key areas which drove the majority of the difference between our actual and expected results. First, during the quarter we made incremental decisions to invest in additional promotional activity. We focused these actions on areas with competitive opportunities like computing, television and movies, and we're satisfied with the strong response we saw from consumers. Second, consistent with my earlier comments, consumer purchases mixed more heavily into promotional and value items. Consumers' response was strongest in lower margin computing and promoted televisions and movies. And lastly, a higher mix of our sales during the quarter took place in the month of November and especially Black Friday, which is more promotional by nature. Within the International segment, gross profit dollars increased 4%. This dollar growth was the result of foreign currency exchange rates and a rate increase of 80 basis points. Rate strength was driven by continued work by our Canadian team to improve promotional effectiveness in large categories like notebooks and televisions. We are also benefiting from the actions we've taken in our International portfolio to exit the lower margin big box test stores in China and Turkey. Another key story from Q3 is the continued progress we have made to lower expenses and help fund the pricing and promotional investments discussed above. Excluding the impact of FX, total company SG&A was actually flat during the quarter. We have driven spending reductions in discretionary areas and have improved labor effectiveness while increasing our TV and online advertising to build traffic and awareness. Fiscal year-to-date, total SG&A expense versus the prior year excluding FX is essentially flat. Strong International operating growth of over 80% in the quarter and excellent SG&A cost control partially mitigated the total company operating income declined of 15% in the quarter. The overall decline was driven almost entirely by the lower gross profit rate in Domestic business. We continue to generate significant cash. Free cash flow through the third quarter was very strong at $2 billion. FY '12 cash flow has benefited from the reversal of year-end timing items that we have previously discussed and from proactive management of our inventory. In fact, our Domestic comparable store inventories finished down 11% in the third quarter. As Brian said, we are currently on track to deliver our adjusted free cash flow target for the year of $2 billion to $2.5 billion. Before we move on to our outlook, I also wanted to call your attention to a couple of other items included in our Q3 results. During the quarter, we incurred a total of $150 million of pretax restructuring costs that were largely associated with the planned closure of the 11 big box pilot stores in the U.K. These charges were consistent with our previous announcement on this matter. Also within the quarter, we sold our investments in the shares of TalkTalk Group PLC and Carphone Warehouse Group PLC. The $55 million pretax gain associated with these transactions, or $0.13 of EPS, has been excluded from our adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.47 for the third quarter. With the Q3 summary behind us, let's move on to talk about our outlook for the balance of the year. As I mentioned upfront, we continue to expect adjusted annual diluted EPS in the range of $3.35 to $3.65, consistent with the previous guidance when excluding the items outlined in today's release and by Bill at the outset of this call. Based on where we see the consumer, the competitive environment and our expectations for the balance of the year, we are updating a couple of items in our full year outlook to arrive at the adjusted EPS range for our outlook. Summarizing the key elements of our updated outlook, our revenue range has remained unchanged for the entire year at $51 billion to $52.5 billion, representing full year comp sales of flat to down 3%. Based on our year-to-date sales and our expectations for Q4, we currently expect to finish around the midpoint of this dollar range. We now expect the full year gross profit rate to decline approximately 50 basis points. This includes a fourth quarter gross profit rate that is a modest decline compared to the prior year and better than the rate decline in Q3. The improvement in the sequential Q4 rate is based on a few key items. First, an improved Domestic rate in computing as promotional investments were more heavily weighted to Q3. Also in computing, we have reduced inventory transition costs due to lower levels of inventory this year. And the impact of tech support is expected to be less of a drag given the timing recognition of deferred revenue on this program. Also within Domestic, we anticipate a lower mix of gain in sales and reduced year-over-year promotions in movies, both of which should improve the rates relative to Q3. Finally, we also expect to improve International gross margins, primarily a function of easier comparisons and from the impact of incremental vendor programs both in Europe and Five Star in Q4. To offset the impact of lower gross margin expectations, we have also lowered our SG&A for the year. We now expect full year SG&A dollar growth to be approximately 2%. Excluding the impact of the 53rd week in FY '12 and FX, SG&A is now planned to be slightly down for the full year. So rolling it all up, our expectations on total operating income dollars remained within our prior range, which was a 5% decline to 2% growth. Our adjusted diluted EPS guidance range of $3.35 to $3.65 represents a range of down 2% to up 6%. In closing, we were pleased with the traffic and sales improvement in the quarter and the successful execution of the Black Friday weekend. The holiday season is just getting started and we clearly have a lot of business still in front of us this year. We believe that we have taken strong and aggressive steps to position ourselves for the balance of the holidays and to deliver our performance commitments for the year. So with that, Alicia, we're ready to take the questions.