James L. Muehlbauer
Analyst · Peter Keith with Piper Jaffray
Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'd like to cover the financial highlights of our second quarter results and provide you with a progress update on several of our key initiatives for the year. I will also discuss some of the background around the changes we announced to our annual EPS outlook this morning based on what we have observed so far this year. Earlier, Brian touched on what we are seeing in the macro environment and its dampening impact on consumer spending and the CE industry. Together, we have seen this play out through the first half in various industry data points as well as in the commentary of some of our vendor partners and competitors. Viewed in the context of these current macro and industry headwinds, our business faired comparatively well. But still, our Q2 results were below our original expectations. With this as important context, our second quarter revenue came in about flat to last year. The favorable impact of foreign currency and new store growth were offset by a comparable store sales decline of 2.8%. In the Domestic segment, sales declined 1.5% and comparable store sales were down 2.7%. These results were relatively consistent with the sales trends we experienced in the first quarter of the year. The biggest positive drivers in the Domestic comp included tablets, appliances and e-readers. Total mobile computing had strong comparable store sales growth of 9% in the quarter. The growth was driven by a very strong tablet sales supported by the benefits of implementing our Tablet Central model, which leverages a broad assortment of devices side by side with dedicated expert labor. Also in computing, it's worth noting that traditional notebook comp trends, while still negative, improved again during the quarter. Appliances continued its momentum with strong comp sales of 12% on top of positive comps in the prior year. We believe the benefits of both the operational changes we made in the appliance area and improved competitive offers have helped us grow market share on this business. Another product category worth noting is e-readers, which once again delivered triple-digit comps and had a meaningful impact on the total Domestic segment. These products, along with mobile phones and tablets, highlight the continuing consumer appetite for mobile technologies and the revenue growth that can be derived by bringing the complete mobile experience together, along with a broad assortment of products and employees who can provide advice to help customers select the best solution for their individual needs. Let's also spend a moment on the performance of the Best Buy Mobile business in Q2. As noted in the release this morning, mobile phone sales performance in Q2 decelerated from the strong growth trends experienced in the recent quarters due to shifting product cycles of new handset launches by vendors. Specifically, Q2 lacked the type of significant device launches like iPhone 4 and the HTC EVO that were a major catalyst during Q2 in the prior year. Putting our sales into context compared to the broader mobile phone industry, we estimate that we continued to gain significant share during the quarter compared to last year. As we've discussed before, in Best Buy Mobile the sales comp only tells part of the financial story. While the timing shift of major smartphone launches adversely impacted ASPs and postpaid connection volumes, our overall connection volumes in Best Buy Mobile continued to grow during Q2, driven by strong growth in prepaid phones and additional Best Buy Mobile standalone store locations. As Brian discussed, we anticipate a stronger lineup of new handsets in the second half and continue to expect that this business will deliver its top line and profit goals for the year. TV comps in Q2 finished down low double digits, a result similar to the previous 2 quarters and very much in line with overall industry trends. As you recall, we went into this year with the expectation that the TV business would be soft. But given what the industry experienced with last year and the continued macro headwinds, accordingly, we focused our plans this year on helping customers with their purchase decisions on larger screen sizes with more advanced features. So far this year, our sales mix of larger screen sizes had been growing with nearly 60% of our business coming from screen sizes 46 inches and up. This represented double-digit unit growth on large screens during the quarter. In serving the premium home theater enthusiasts, our Magnolia Home Theater business, which is in 385 of our U.S. stores, continues to perform very well and delivered mid-double-digit comparable store sales gains during the quarter. In our gaming business, we had planned for stronger sales performance in the quarter. We believe that the softness in gaming was driven by the lack of major software title launches during the period. We remain on track in delivering the enhanced capabilities to our customers via improvements in pre-order and pre-owned title capabilities coupled with additional labor investments we made in the space to help customers with their purchase decisions. Sales in our International segment increased approximately 5%, driven primarily by the favorable impact of foreign currency and new store growth, which offset a 3.2% comparable store sales decline. Our Five Star business in China continued its solid growth with a comparable store sales gain of 7%, which was on top of almost a 22% comp last year. We remain on track for 40 to 50 new Five Star openings this year in this important market for the future. Canada and Best Buy Europe experienced high and low single-digit comparable store sales declines, respectively. Turning to gross profit. Second quarter gross profit dollars of $2.9 billion were down 2%. Within the Domestic segment, the gross profit rate declined 50 basis points on a difficult comparison to the previous year, when gross profit rate was up 150 basis points. This will be our most difficult comparison period of the year. There were several factors that influenced the rate decline in Q2. Consistent with Q1, we continued to take competitive action to successfully drive revenue improvements in key categories like appliances, computing and gaming. Additionally, the new Geek Squad Tech Support service offering that Brian discussed earlier had a negative impact on our gross profit rate in the second quarter. Under this program, customers enter into an ongoing service relationship with us for 1 to 2 years. Accordingly, we recognize the revenue and profits over the life of the agreement. In the past, if a customer purchased a service product for assistance with a onetime repair, we recognized the profit at full at the time of the service. If this program continues to prove successful, we would expect the Tech Support membership sales to drive both increased margin dollars and improved rate over time. Partially offsetting the items that negatively impacted gross margin was rate strength in mobile phones, largely from increased sales of accessory and service solutions as well as handset mix. Within the International segment, we had a 4% increase in gross profit dollars driven largely by FX. Overall, the International gross profit margin rate was 25.4%, a slight decrease of 20 basis points year-over-year. This decline was driven primarily by a more promotional environment in the mobile phone business in Europe that's facing a backdrop of reduced upgrade volume in the industry, due to the migration of U.K. customers from 18-month to 24-month contracts which began taking place roughly 1.5 years ago. We are very pleased with the progress made by our businesses in Canada and Five Star to improve their gross margin rates in Q2. The rate improvement in Canada was driven by increased promotional effectiveness, operating model changes made by the business to focus on driving profitable sales and the growth in the mix of mobile phones. Five Star margins increased based on improved cost programs with vendors. Given the lower sales environment we experienced in the second quarter, we also took action to reduce expenses while maintaining focus on areas which will provide benefits in the second half and beyond. Excluding the impact of FX, total company SG&A increased 1% during the quarter. The modest increase year-over-year in SG&A spending was driven primarily by the addition of new stores and increased advertising, mostly offset by proactive adjustments to our spending profile during the quarter. For the first half of the year, total SG&A expense was essentially flat excluding FX. Since we're talking about expenses, this is also a good opportunity to provide you with a quick update on the progress we have made with our initiative to reduce our Domestic big box square footage. As you will recall, we are making plans to evolve the operating model in our U.S. big box stores to better support the increased growth opportunities we see in connected businesses and to improve our overall experience for customers and employees. As a part of this work, we are planning to reduce our big box square footage by 10% over the next 3 to 5 years. Our test results so far in this space continue to indicate that a store prototype which combines the enhanced operating model with reduced space and lower operating cost has not materially lowered our sales volumes in these stores. With almost 40% of our leases set to expire over the next 5 years, we have a significant opportunity to execute a portion of these planned space reductions at the natural end of the lease, which of course is very cost effective. Additionally, we are actively pursuing options to both sublease and return space to landlords where opportunities exist. By way of example, in FY '12, we estimate that in total that we will work with landlords on approximately 30 store locations. We currently expect to reduce space in well over 50% of these locations to achieve a total square footage reduction of 10% to 15% against this entire tranche of 30 stores. To be clear, we still have work to do with subleasing all of these sites to achieve the full financial benefit, but we continue to be encouraged by our discussions to date with prospective tenants. As these plans continue to develop, we look forward to updating you on our progress. A few more items I wanted to touch on before discussing our guidance for the year. We have actively managed our inventory to lower balances from where we started the year. Domestic comp store inventories finished down 5% in the second quarter. In addition, our receivable positions and payables have also made good progress in returning to more normalized levels from where we finished fiscal 2011. Free cash flow for the first half was very strong at $1.1 billion, up significantly from last year. As previously discussed, the biggest driver of the first half free cash flow increase was the reversal of year-end timing differences in several key working capital items. We believe we are still on track to hit our free cash flow target for the year of $2 billion to $2.5 billion. The cash generation -- the cash generative nature of our business continues to be one of the key strengths of our model. During the quarter, we also continued share repurchase activity. Total repurchases during the first half of the year totaled $863 million, which reflects 29.2 million shares or approximately 7% of our outstanding shares. Looking back at the first half of the year, while the environment remained challenging, we feel good about the solid progress we have made on our key growth initiatives. We will continue to invest and push forward on these opportunities for profitable growth and improve shareholder returns. Our outlook for the year has evolved, based on what we have seen so far from both the consumer and in the profile of our margins year-to-date. Based on these factors and our expectations for the balance of the year, we have modified our full year earnings expectations. We continue to expect full year revenue in the range of $51 billion to $52.5 billion, with full year comps of flat to down 3%. Specifically, in the second half, we're expecting continued strong growth in tablets from industry growth and from the benefits of our Tablet Central work. We expect strong growth of Best Buy Mobile from significant device launches and the continued strength of our differentiated model. We also expect meaningful improvement in the gaming industry from a stronger lineup of software title releases and the progression in our pre-order and pre-owned capabilities. Our expectation for the second half has not assumed a significant improvement in the trends of 2 of our largest categories, TVs and notebooks, consistent with our outlook at the beginning of the year. As a reminder, another item that impacts full year total revenue is the inclusion of the 53rd week during the fiscal fourth quarter. We estimate that the 53rd week will favorably impact full year total revenue growth by approximately 1.5% to 2%. Moving onto gross profit rate expectation for the year, which is the most significant driver in our updated outlook, the first half gross profit rate was down 50 basis points from the prior year, driven primarily by targeted promotional activity to drive revenue, several nonrecurring items in Q1 and the impact of new tech support services which temporarily lowered our margin rates. In the second half, we expect gross profit rate trend to improve, driven primarily by improved performance in mobile phones based on anticipated sales increases and solutions attach, improvements in gaming driven by stronger title releases and a higher mix of pre-owned gaming software, and improved attach rates and solution sales in our mobile computing space. For the full year, we now expect that our gross profit rate will be modestly down. We have also lowered our annual spending profile in SG&A and now expect SG&A to be up 3% to 4% excluding FX, or approximately 1% to 2% excluding the impact of higher incentive comp and the 53rd week. The reduction in SG&A growth reflects lower discretionary and project spending as we prudently manage our spending in this environment, striking an important balance of pushing forward on the profitable growth areas while managing our spending in the more uncertain near term. So rolling it all up, we anticipate that total operating income dollars for the year will be in the range of a 5% decline to 2% growth, reflecting the impact of lower expected gross profit rate partially mitigated by lower SG&A spend. We are updating our annual EPS guidance range to $3.35 to $3.65. For clarity, this range now includes the impact of $1.5 billion of expected share repurchases for this fiscal year, or approximately $0.20 to $0.25, depending upon where earnings finalize for the year. As a reminder, our original fiscal 2012 EPS guidance of $3.30 to $3.55 excluded fiscal '12 share repurchases. So in closing, while we expect to see continued volatility in consumer behavior in the second half of the year given the uncertainties in the macro, we continue to be fluid and purposeful with our plans and will follow customers where they need us to go. We will focus our resources on driving the profitable strategic growth opportunities we see in the business. We are confident that our unique combination of multichannel assets, service capabilities and strong financial foundation, coupled with our biggest differentiator, our outstanding people, puts us in a position to drive shareholder returns over time. So with that, Alicia, we are ready for questions.