Stuart Burgdoerfer
Analyst · Paul Lejuez of Nomura Securities
Thanks, Amie, and good morning, everyone. We're very pleased with our fourth quarter performance. Our adjusted earnings per share increased 25% to $1.26 per share versus $1.01 per share last year. Our reported 2010 result was $1.36 per share versus $1.08 last year. Both this and last year's reported results include significant items as detailed in our press release. This year's reported fourth quarter results include pretax gains from the sale of Express shares and the payment of an Express dividend totaling $52 million or $0.10 per share. 2009's reported results include a tax benefit of $23 million or $0.07 per share, primarily related to the reorganization of certain foreign subsidiaries. All results discussed on this call exclude these significant items in both years. Our fourth quarter earnings per share of $1.26 significantly exceeded our beginning of the quarter expectations of $1.02 to $1.17 per share. This upside was driven by the 10% comp increase versus our initial forecast of up low-single digits. To take you through the fourth quarter results as detailed on Page 1 of the presentation, net sales were $3.456 billion versus $3.063 billion last year, and comps increased 10%. The gross margin rate increased 100 basis points to 41.8%, primarily driven by leverage on buying and occupancy expense. The merchandise margin rate increased slightly despite a negative impact of about 60 basis points related to the increase in Mast sales to Express and Limited Stores, which are recognized at 100% this year versus 75% last year. The change in revenue recognition is a result of the change in accounting for our Express investment to the cost method versus the equity method last year and the sale of our remaining investment in Limited Stores. This accounting change, which occurred in the third quarter of 2010 will continue to have a negative impact on our consolidated merchandise margin rate in the first two quarters of 2011. SG&A dollars increased by $67.8 million or 10%, and the SG&A rate improved by 50 basis points. The major drivers of expense growth are as follows: over half the dollar increase in SG&A was driven by increased store selling costs, including costs related to new stores in Canada; total selling cost leverage as a percent of sales; about 25% of the increase was related to certain unusual expenses in the quarter, including a significant increase in stock compensation expense due to a lower forfeiture rate as a result of lower associate turnover; and separately, the write-offs of an intangible trade name asset. And most of the remainder of the increase was driven by an increase in marketing costs, which held flat as a percent of sales. Turning to operating income on Page 2. Total operating income increased $128 million or 22% and 150 basis points as a percent of sales to $713.5 million or 20.6% of sales. By segment, the Victoria's Secret segment increased by $83.8 million or 230 basis points as a percent of sales to $394.8 million or 19.6% of sales. Bath & Body Works increased by $35.4 million or 130 basis points as a percent of sales to $330 million or 30.5% of sales. And the other segment operating loss declined by $8.7 million to $11.3 million. Total non-operating expenses were roughly flat at $47.5 million, as the loss of income from Express and Limited Stores was offset by a decline in interest expense. Turning to our full year results on Page 3. Excluding the significant items described in our press release, earnings per share increased 67% to $2.06 versus $1.23 last year. Our operating income and earnings per share results were records for the company. Net sales increased 11% to $9.613 billion versus $8.632 billion last year, and comps increased 9%. The gross margin rate increased 270 basis points to 37.8%. About 2/3 of the gross margin rate increase was driven by an increase in the merchandise margin rate, and the remainder was driven by buying and occupancy expense leverage. SG&A dollars increased by $176.9 million or 8%, and the SG&A rate improved by 70 basis points. Page 4 details our full year operating income results. We made significant progress toward our goal of a 15% operating income rate. Total operating income increased by 50% to $1.284 billion, and our operating income rate improved by 340 basis points to 13.4%, driven by significant improvement in all three segments. I know there is ongoing interest in the drivers of results in the other segment, so I'd like to take some time to provide some additional clarity. The other segment consists of our sourcing function, Mast Global, Henri Bendel, corporate overhead and all of our international operations except La Senza, which is included in the Victoria's Secret segment. For the full year, other segment revenue consisted of the following. Mast sales to the third parties were $886 million and increase by roughly $100 million from last year. About $70 million of the increase was driven by the accounting change to recognize 100% of sales to Express and Limited Stores in the last two quarters of the year versus 75% last year. And the remainder was driven by sales growth to third-party customers. Sales from our Bath & Body Works and Victoria's Secret stores in Canada totaled roughly $165 million and increased by about $100 million versus last year, driven by new store openings. Revenue from our international, wholesale and franchise business, including our Victoria's Secret Travel and Tourism location stores and our Bath & Body Works franchise stores was about $75 million and increased by approximately 50% over last year. And finally, our Henri Bendel business recorded sales of about $50 million, about 20% above last year. The other segment operating loss is driven by corporate overhead expense and a loss from our Henri Bendel business, which is partially offset by operating income from Mast and our International business. The improvement in the 2010 other segment operating loss of $22 million was driven by the allocation of technology cost to Victoria's Secret and an increase in profits from our International business, partially offset by a decline in profitability at Mast. Moving down the income statement below operating income. Total nonoperating expenses for the year decreased by $36.6 million to $181 million, primarily driven by a decline in interest expense. Moving to the balance sheet on Page 5. Retail inventories per square foot at cost ended the year down 2% versus last year and down 11% on a two-year basis. Excluding an increase in the first quarter of 2009 related to the pull-forward of inventories associated with the Victoria's Secret systems implementation, inventory per square foot has decreased for 15 consecutive quarters. We ended the year with $2.5 billion in total debt and $1.1 billion in cash. Free cash flow in 2010 was just over $1 billion, a record year. 2010 capital expenditures were $274 million. We repurchased 1.9 million shares of stock in the fourth quarter for $60.5 million. We have $139 million remaining under our $200 million share repurchase program. In 2010, we returned over $1.5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases, special dividends and our ongoing regular dividend. We also just announced a 33% increase in our regular annual dividend to $0.80 per share. Turning to Page 6 of the presentation for our forecast for 2011. We expect earnings per share between $0.26 and $0.31 in the first quarter. This forecast reflects a comp increase of between 2% and 4%, including the updated guidance for February comps of up high-single digits. We expect a spread of about two to three percentage points between total sales growth and comps, driven by sales growth from new stores in Canada and Mast. We are projecting first quarter gross margin and SG&A rates that are roughly flat to last year. We expect to end the first quarter with inventory per square foot roughly flat to last year. For the full year, we are projecting low single-digit positive comps and a spread between comps in total sales of roughly three percentage points, driven by growth in Mast and International. With respect to increases in sourcing costs, we want to communicate five points. First, we make our money on the sell side. We create value for our customers through the emotional content of our brands and merchandise, which enables us to price independent of cost and to earn premium margins. We think this aspect of our business differentiates us from many others in the retail industry. Second, the combination of inventory discipline and our efforts to get faster in the execution of our business has enabled us to improve merchandise margin over the last several years, and we do believe that there is additional opportunity. Third, we have a very significant sourcing capability in the Mast Global organization with a lot of experience literally on the ground in key regions. We have longstanding relationships with our sourcing partners, as well as a geographically-diverse vendor base, and we think that these capabilities and relationships also differentiate us. Fourth, about 40% of our retail sales come from personal care and beauty, shower gels, body lotions, fragrance. These products do not contain cotton, and substantially all of this product is made in the United States. With all that said, we do expect to see some pressure from increased cost weighted principally to the back half of the year. It is not practical to predict how much of that can be offset through more full-priced selling. Therefore, our outlook does call for some decline in our merchandise margin rate in 2011. We believe that this decline will be principally offset by buying and occupancy leverage, so our forecast is for our 2011 gross margin rate to be about flat to last year. We expect the full year SG&A expense rate to leverage on total sales growth. Nonoperating expenses are projected roughly flat to last year at about $47 million per quarter, consisting principally of interest expense. Before any discrete items, our tax rate will be approximately 38%, and weighted average shares will approximate 333 million. Assuming all of these inputs, we expect earnings per share for the full year 2011 to be between $2.15 and $2.35 per share. We are projecting 2011 capital spending of about $400 million. As detailed on Page 7 of the presentation, we plan to open roughly 30 to 35 stores this year, mostly in Canada, and close roughly 45 stores. We'll end the year with total square footage roughly flat to last year. Turning to liquidity. We expect free cash flow in 2011 of about $600 million to $650 million. We remain committed to returning excess cash to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends. Our free cash flow and cash position, along with the additional availability under our revolving credit facility, results in very strong liquidity, which is more than sufficient to fund our working capital, capital expenditures, dividends and any other foreseeable needs. Thanks, and now I'll turn the discussion over to Sharen.