Jonathan Johnson
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Thanks, Adrianne. The team again executed well during the third quarter, navigating competitive pressure, iOS privacy changes and pervasive supply chain kinks to deliver solid financial results, profitable results that are in line with our targeted margin guardrails. Our team is focused and committed in proving that we have implemented and continue to implement meaningful foundational operational changes. Slide 14, please. We have had 20 months of sales performance that has been double or nearly double our pre-pandemic run rate despite numerous and varying supply chain challenges. I'm eager to see what we can do when the bottlenecks in the supply chain subside. I suspect we will be able to significantly grow the number of SKUs we offer as we increase the breadth and depth of our home products. Slide 15. Next, I'll provide some additional insights into our e-commerce business, including where our focused strategy is paying off, our agile operations that are key in today's environment, and where we are targeting and driving growth. Slide 16, please. We believe online penetration continues to grow and will finish the year at a pre-pandemic growth rate. It's nice to again see nice growth in that penetration in 2021 even after the large surge we saw last year. Importantly, third-party forecasts project continued migration in 2022 and beyond as customers recognize the broad assortment available, value and ease of purchasing furniture and home furnishings online. Add to this online migration, the growth in the home market TAM and Overstock has 2 nice tailwind factors. Slide 17, please. We shared this slide for several quarters and continue to believe and illustrates well where Overstock fits in the overall market and the significant white space available in the quadrant where home goods expertise meets Smart Value. This quadrant is the right place for Overstock, and we have been strategic about choosing to focus on it. Our targeted customers already have a propensity to shop with us. So we purposely play to our natural strengths, and these customers represent roughly 40% of the market. So Overstock has ample growth opportunity in this space and with these target customers. I will now talk to each of our 3 brand pillars, each of which help define Overstock's value proposition. Slide 18. Our first brand pillar is Product Findability. As we continue to lean into home, it's critical that our customers know us for our home furnishings offerings and can quickly and easily find the home products they're looking for. One of the critical strategic moves we've made has been to focus on home. Our home goods expertise gives us significant white space opportunity I just discussed. And it's important to know the customers who purchase home products from us have a better experience, have 2x higher basket value and are more likely to make repeat purchase. We've made good progress to associate the Overstock brand with home. For example, we have increased our brand association with home by 11 percentage points since December 2020. We've expanded our new home SKUs by 150% year-over-year, including showcasing exciting home brands like Casper and KitchenAid. Once supply chain kinks moderate, we expect significant new SKU growth as we add even more partners, and our existing partners bring new SKUs on site. We held the #1 traffic share in outdoor furniture during the summer months. That's a big deal. 94% of our sales were in home categories, a slight improvement from last year. As we continue to strategically remove nonhome products from our site, our goal is 100% of sales to be home-related by this time next year. Even with these wins, Overstock still does not have enough brand association with home. It's paramount that Overstock is seen as an online furniture and home furnishings destination and that we make finding our home products easy and fast. We know there is room for improvement, and our team is eager to continue to execute against this strategy. Slide 19. Our second brand pillar is Smart Value. Smart Value means offering great products at great prices or, said differently, highest quality products for the price. Our promotional model is intentional and critical to attracting and retaining our customers. They love finding a deal and want to feel like they're winning. Our competitive pricing tenor remains to offer a winning price post promotion. We continue to see progress in our Smart Value pillar. I'll mention 3 areas of improvement. First, our promotional model, especially around holidays and special events, is resonating with customers. We have the largest 4th of July and Labor Day sales results in company history. Second, our competitive pricing strategy was again within our targeted range. We increased our comparable set from last year by 14 percentage points and kept 80% priced within the competitive range. Third, roughly 60% of our new customers were within our targeted segments, significantly higher than the 40% of the population these customers represent. We know how to reach these customers, and we are meeting one of their top purchase drivers: value. And of course, our free-shipping-on-everything policy is an important component of Smart Value and a benefit that really matters to our customers and differentiates us from our competitors. Slide 20. Our third brand pillar is Easy Delivery and Support. This includes getting the right product assortment and then optimizing its journey to the customer. We have a distributed supply chain with our partner-based dropship model that includes more than 3,000 partners with more than 5,000 fulfillment centers nationwide. This is an advantage when navigating industry-wide supply chain disruptions and allows us to flex quickly for changes in demand. Our carrier network is diverse, both regionally and nationally. Where we have seen challenges is mainly in highly populated metropolitan areas and areas close to ports. To navigate these challenges, we continue to provide timely forecasting and communicate frequently, allowing us to meet customer expectations. A proof point of our advantageous business model and robust analytics was our ability to capitalize on the demand for outdoor furniture. Since we are not limited by shelf space and we have a wide network of products, we were able to meet a significant demand and were, in fact, #1 in traffic share for outdoor furniture this summer, besting everyone, including our largest peer. In short, our operating model provides a significant advantage, especially during times of high demand and low supply, economic uncertainty and industry-wide supply chain disruptions. It has been working well for us, especially over the last 20 months. It's distributed and flexible, allowing us to scale effectively and efficiently. Slide 21. Usually, when we talk about support, we talk about customer support. In this time of increased supply chain constraints, I will focus on how we support our partner suppliers. We believe our superior partner relations and support gives us priority on inventory and increased [ assortment ]. In fact, our inventory levels have significantly improved versus last year, although they are not yet back to our pre-pandemic levels. Importantly, as our supplier -- partner suppliers are more efficient and effective, this benefits our customers by providing greater assortment, higher end stock, improved speed of delivery and overall customer service. Part of the support we provide partners is through our proprietary software, Overstock Supplier Oasis, which provides real-time sales data, pricing opportunities, operational and fulfillment metrics, and all at a SKU level. It also provides business development analytics, data to support manufacturing and new assortment opportunities. This is a very real way for our partners to grow their business with us. As we add value to our partner suppliers, it benefits us through increased assortment of home products, both breadth and depth. In fact, the number of home-related SKUs with sales has increased from prepandemic levels in both 2020 and 2021. Customers are finding smart value across a large product pool. And when they can't find the exact product they want, they are finding natural replacement products. Those are our 3 brand pillars. Together, they form our differentiated value proposition and guide our strategy. Slide 22, please. As you've heard me say so many times, our mantra is sustainable, profitable market share growth. Growth is a key component of our mantra and one that we spend a significant amount of time strategizing on. We've gained great momentum and have included on this slide several key drivers to support growth. As I've already noted, even with our recent wins, there continues to be a big opportunity to increase the Overstock's brand association with home. We're continually increasing the breadth and depth of our home goods assortment. As I noted earlier, adding great brand products like Casper and KitchenAid help our customers associate Overstock with quality. We're expanding internationally, focusing first on Canada by shipping to our Canadian customers from Canada instead of from the U.S.A. Our investment in the Canadian customer experience is progressing nicely. We expect to take what we learned from Canada, from the Canadian experience and use it as a template for future international expansion efforts. We are establishing our government business. As I've consistently said for the past few quarters, the government business is a longer-term growth strategy for us and one we think will help open other business-to-business opportunities. We have a great mobile app, but it remains under-adopted. We did some effective app-only promotions for our 2021 customer day, and we're pleased by the outcome. In fact, mobile app revenue in Q3 was at its highest percentage of revenue ever. We still need to better focus on optimizing our market channels with a goal of increasing direct traffic. Our brand association with home will certainly aid in that effort. We feel well positioned, poised with a great business model and many levers to pull to continue to gain market share while delivering profitability. Slide 23. As I've mentioned several times before, we believe we are in the middle of a secular shift where consumers are increasingly buying furniture and home furnishings online. We have intentionally set our near- and mid-term growth and margin targets with the desire to take market share during this secular shift while delivering profitability. When we feel the industry has reached its natural maturation point, we may consider revising our targets and establishing a different longer-term margin framework. We have consistently delivered against our financial targets, which are as follows: top line outpacing the market, driven by our technology, our customer focus and our business model; gross margins in the 22% range, which may fluctuate slightly from quarter to quarter; disciplined G&A and tech spending to continue to drive operating leverage; and adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid-single digits. Overstock has been operating within this framework for 6 consecutive quarters. And with the operational changes we continue to make in the business, we expect to continue to do this. Slide 24, please. Next, I'll briefly discuss significant updates on the Medici Ventures Fund. Slide 25. I will provide some updates to the 2 biggest holdings in the Medici Ventures Fund, starting with tZERO. The tZERO Board is engaged in an active search for a new CEO. It is focused on hiring the right person rather than making a quick and hasty decision. In the meantime, acting CEO, Alan Konevsky, has been doing a great job leading the tZERO operations. In the past few months, tZERO has initiated trading of the Exodus digital security; announced new digital securities that plan to trade on the tZERO ATS; partnered with WealthBlock for private companies seeking continuous secondary liquidity; launched support for 8 more crypto currencies on the tZERO Crypto app; and received FINRA approval to self-clear trades. In my mind, tZERO is seeking to provide the thing that has won the day in tech from time immemorial: the suite. tZERO's goal is to create a suite so that the customer will have one place to buy and sell unique private securities, public securities, crypto and NTFs -- NFTs, among other things. When I'm asked how tZERO will compete with Robinhood or Coinbase, that feels to me like being asked how Microsoft competes with a single spreadsheet solution. And remember, the tZERO capital market suite and the capabilities behind it may be able to be used for both B2C and a B2B solution. Turning to significant news this quarter from Bitt. The Central Bank of Nigeria announced it's selected Bitt as its technology provider for the eNaira, the country's Central Bank digital currency. The eNaira launched on Monday. That much shorter time from announcement of the deal to launch of the eNaira also shows that the Bitt team is winning deals and implementing quickly. Remember, Nigeria is the world's seventh most populous country, and that population skews young and tech savvy. I think this is a big deal. While the detailed terms of the eNaira deal with the Central Bank of Nigeria are necessarily private at the request of the Central Bank, the basics are that Bitt receives payment in 2 ways: first, a licensing fee for the software that is related to the number of participating institutions; and second, a variable fee on usage, a per-transaction fee as the network grows. I think that has real potential upside as it gains traction and as more central banks look at issuing central bank digital currencies. Slide 26. This slide notes a few other updates the Medici Venture Fund companies have disclosed publicly. The Medici Ventures Fund participated in Ripio's recent up run, slightly increasing the fund's ownership percentage in Ripio. Medici Land governance is doing proof-of-concept pilot in New York City. Voatz continues to support elections even in this off-cycle year. It's been 6 months since Overstock closed the Pelion Venture's transaction. We're pleased with how Pelion is acting as the fund's general partner. Pelion is actively helping many of the portfolio companies advance their respective businesses. And the Overstock management team can focus on the e-commerce business. I remain bullish on blockchain technology and many of the companies in the Medici Ventures Fund. I think the market does not yet fully appreciate the value of the fund. And on that note, I understand Pelion is planning to hold a Medici Fund Day in Q2 of next year. Slide 27. I'll now briefly recap the quarter, and then we'll move to Q&A. Slide 28. We continue to improve Overstock's brand association with home, increase the number of home products on our site. Notably, we outperformed peers in the outdoor furniture category. As we look forward, we believe we have an exciting event-driven strategy to support the holiday season. The U.S. consumer continues to spend on the home, and our supply chain is prepared to support sustainable, profitable market share growth. As I noted earlier, from our current vantage point, including our perspective on the macro environment, we are comfortable with the consensus estimates outlook for 2022 revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA. We are looking to continue to grow and build this business in 2022 and beyond. In summary, we are pleased with our progress, focused on execution. The market is large and growing, our business model is distributed and flexible, and our target customers are a sizable market segment. Perhaps the best way to view us is that we are a company gaining market share in a long-term growth market. Now operator, let's take some questions.