Earnings Labs

Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. (BBAR)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 19, 2020

$14.83

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to BBVA Argentina's Fourth Quarter 2019 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] First of all, let me stress that some of the statements made during this conference call may be forward-looking statements, within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions found in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 under U.S. Federal Securities Law. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning these factors is contained in BBVA Argentina' Annual report on Form 20-F for the Fiscal Year 2018, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Today with us we have Mr. Ernesto Gallardo, CFO; Mrs. Inés Lanusse, IRO’ and Mr. Javier Kelly, Investor Relations Manager. Mr. Kelly, you may begin your conference.

Javier Kelly

Analyst

Hello everyone, and welcome to the BBVA Argentina earnings conference call for the discussion of our fourth quarter 2019 results. Before we begin our formal remarks, allow me to remind you that certain statements made during the course of the discussion may constitute forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ, including factors that may be beyond the company's control. For a description of these risks, please refer to our filings with the SEC and our earnings release, which are available at our Investor Relations website ir.bbva.com.ar. Now, let me turn the call over to Inés. Inés Lanusse: Thanks you, Javier, and thank all of you for joining us on our fourth quarter 2019 earnings conference call. Let me start be recalling some landmarks we achieve during this year. As a Group we reached the notable milestone of adopting a unique global identity, “BBVA”. This new identity reflects one of the values of the Group, "We are one team", which emphasizes the importance of employees and their commitment with the bank. The purpose of BBVA remains focused on “Bringing the age of opportunity to everyone, helping our clients to achieve their life and business goals". For the fifth consecutive year, BBVA Argentina remains the most recommended bank, according to the study carried out by Ipsos Argentina, which measures retail NPS (Net Promoter Score) for the bank. Also, the bank was able to conclude the cultural change that had been proposed, to begin operating under the “agile” methodology, which allows to put the customer first and to solve their needs. BBVA Argentina continues to be at the forefront, using technology and data as the main management tools. During 2019 we…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Alonso Garcia with Credit Suisse.

Alonso Garcia

Analyst

My first question is regarding the credit activity that you expect for the year. I mean, after trailing equation significantly, what should we expect in terms of creating growth during 2020 and what lines should drive this growth? And the second question is on the evolution of expenses. What should we expect in terms of operating growth this year, should we see an original impact from these transformation and efficiencies strategy or should we start seeing the benefit of the strategy this year, please help us clarify that? Thank you very much. Inés Lanusse: Let's talk first about the credit activity what happened in the quarter you know, quarter-over-quarter there was a reduction of nearly five points due basically to the tragic reduction of U.S. total loans. And obviously there is no loan demand in dollars. If you would exclude the deconsolidation of Rombo in the fourth quarter, the contraction would have been only 1.6%. In year-over-year basis, the growth was 14.5% and if you had excluded basically the consolidation of the three companies, the growth would have been 8.1%. Again, that growth on a year-on-year basis was mainly driven by the credit card line, which grows way above inflation mortgages with the effects of loans that are tied to inflation. And secondly, it’s offset by commercial loans that were reduced because of the less U.S. dollar loan. Going forward during January numbers we have as of January 2020, the bank has been growing in loans over the system. Basically the portfolio that is growing a little bit faster is a commercial portfolio. We are offering a mainly peso loans and definitely we are in a position that we would like to keep offering loans in dollars but there is no demand. So basically that's what we're seeing, obviously, you…

Alonso Garcia

Analyst

So overall with this provision that you're already made in 4Q for this year for 2020 we should see OpEx growth overall OpEx growth below inflation, definitely right? Inés Lanusse: Yes, because of the efficiency plan we have already started to implement.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Gabriel Nóbrega with Citibank. Gabriel Nóbrega: And we are already in the second month of the year and the new administration has already been in the post for a few months. So being that we have a much more clear picture than what we had in the past conference call. I would like to impose a question of taking into consideration what we've seen over the last two to three months. What do you believe are going to be the main challenges and the opportunities for the bank - during this year and I’ll make a second question afterwards? Thank you. Inés Lanusse: I wouldn't say I take your point that government has been in place for two months, but the scenario is still not clear. The main point that needs to be clear out is the renegotiation of the debt. And I think that trigger more than to be able to see how the government is going to continue managing the country in the coming months. So I think we still are - and we still have a high uncertainty on where the country is going. Being that said, the bank obviously is going to protect its capital. That's why - you can see that the proposal we did for dividend is - the payout ratio is low compared to previous year. And basically, to protect the capital in case new measures arise from the government, we want to still have a higher buffer above the regulatory capital. We're going to keep protecting liquidity and regarding activity, we will accompany the economic cycle. As I was mentioning before the reduction we did in the U.S. dollar loan which is a big portion - was a big portion of our portfolio. In some part was proactive to protect the balance sheet but also we are not having demand for U.S. dollar loan.

Ernesto Gallardo

Analyst

Maybe let me add some ideas about this question. After so months what we know right now is that these government and the central bank, both of them they are keeping an open dialogue with the banking system. This is pretty good for us because for the economy for the society because we are in advance analyzing and discussing some measures that they are thinking to take. So we are extent - we are let's say communicating all the impacts that we see of each of the different measures they're trying or they're thinking to take. So in that sense, let me also add that we have a huge reserve requirements right now for the banks. So there is enough available space in some cases to reduce that reserve requirements to let the banks to manage the difference measurement survey that the government is taking right now that is to compensate if there is a cost for the banks. So in that sense, what we are - seeing right now or something now is that the government is not taking - let’s say release from measures that will put in danger or in risk the banking activity. So the good thing is an open dialogue with the system - with the banking system and enough available space to be compensated for some of the measures that they are taking. So this is good and in all their measurement - all the different new regulation they implemented in the last week. Most of them or the majority is going to create a good environment for loan growth. Even and despite the negative, we could think about it in negative terms, they're reducing in interest rates, the cutting rates. On the other hand, we are managing the customer spread to deal with this reduction in interest rates. So, we think that we can manage these situations that we have right now after as you mentioned before, a couple of months of these new government. Gabriel Nóbrega: And if you allow me just one follow up here, do you believe that seeing that maybe the Central Bank isn't going to be - isn't going to interfere as much as we might have thought, a couple of months back and it's willing to even talk to you guys, other banks as well promote different space where maybe banks will be able to lend again. Do you believe that this is the main factor behind your guidance of loan growth coming in above inflation or you in fact maybe starting to see a bit more demand especially on the retail side?

Ernesto Gallardo

Analyst

Well, what we think is two issues here, we seen that in the wholesale part of the portfolio, we have and starting point really low. So, we are expecting clear recovery from that side of the loan portfolio. In the retail side of the portfolio, we have two main let's say products, personal loans and credit card loans. In the credit card loans of course, there is some measures that the government has taken right now. And we have seen a clear increase with that part of the portfolio that has been compensated even if we receive a small interest rate, we aren't being - we have the compensation coming from the reset requirements. And so, this is a good thing, because we have seen right now an increase in that portfolio - only in good interest rate considering the release of the reserve requirements. So on the other hand, I'm sorry - I didn't understood properly your question related to Central Bank, will you please elaborate a little bit more at the beginning you mentioned about this Central Bank. Gabriel Nóbrega: I was just wondering if - with the Central Bank maybe being more willing to own some talk with the banks and other players. If you don't believe that there will be a higher interference like the one we had in the previous administration, when interest rates were capped fee rates were capped as well banks were unable to distribute dividends?

Ernesto Gallardo

Analyst

Well, the Central Bank is intervening in the market trying to create the conditions for some growth. But at the same time, as I mentioned before they are keeping an open line in order to discuss with the banks every step they are thinking to take. So, what I feel and what I see is that this Central Bank is considering really they are considering the different impacts - of the new regulation they are launching to the market. So, they’ve been in the market, yes, on their under their responsibilities, mainly considering the interest rate movements and the cuts they're doing. So they know they are cutting rates. But on the contrary, they are letting the banks with enough freedom to take their decisions in terms of pricing management. So honestly, I've seen that before December, you could think about it on the say more - how can I say stronger, stronger measures that for the time being they are taking right now.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our next question will come from Carlos Gomez with HSBC.

Carlos Gomez

Analyst

There aren’t too many. I'm going to ask three if you don’t mind. First, I am a bit surprised that you mentioned that 50% loan growth that seems to way above where we are today. And again, on the similarity measures that the government wants introduced. But we wanted to clarify where exactly do you think that is going to reflect it and when. Second, I would like you to comment about the tax rate for 2021. You paid as you mentioned as a three plus percent last year. We know that you have inflation accountant in here, but we would like to know where your effective tax rate to be. And finally, we would like to know with respect to your ROE to be above inflation on this year and tend to be reported inflation adjusted terms also probably the result itself will be positive or negative depending on that? Thank you. Inés Lanusse: Carlos, could you repeat the first question that was not clear enough?

Carlos Gomez

Analyst

Yes. Can you give a bit more clarity as to why you expect loan growth to recover all the way to 50% and whether that should be more on wholesale or on retail? Inés Lanusse: Okay, yes, understood. Regarding loan growth basically would be grown with consumption. The government is implementing measure I would say promote the consumption and we come from a very low starting point. So they increase, it’s going to be very evident. That's why we're projecting loan growth, get it in line with inflation and deposits low inflation, and we are projecting an inflation of 50%. Then we have to see what the final inflation is. Regarding tax rates, you should take into consideration that there was a new implementation issue for 2020 supposedly. The tax rate - regulatory tax rate should be 25 - that was stopped under regulatory tax rate should be 30%, and regulatory because you should consider for your model. Going forward, what finally effective tax rate is going to depend on the inflation. Now, we are going to be applying to the balance sheet as inflation starts to acquire probably you can take as a reference the fourth quarter tax rate that you calculated in around [indiscernible], if I am not mistaken, 5%.

Carlos Gomez

Analyst

So, just to clarify here, your tax will be applied on your gross income in nominal terms, or an inflation adjusted terms, the 30% will apply to your inflation adjusted earnings or to your nominal earnings? Inés Lanusse: Inflation adjusted.

Carlos Gomez

Analyst

To the 30% of inflation adjusted earnings. Inés Lanusse: If you see the P&L after the restart from this subsidiaries, there is going to be a new line called [indiscernible], where you're going to apply the effects of inflation to your balance to your P&L. And then you're going to calculate the income tax.

Carlos Gomez

Analyst

And in terms of your returns above or below inflation for the year?

Ernesto Gallardo

Analyst

What, sorry.

Carlos Gomez

Analyst

Would you expect your returns - I mean given that we have such a sharp reduction in interest rates and presumably a contraction in margin. Do you expect your return on equity to be above the level of inflation in 2020?

Ernesto Gallardo

Analyst

It's going to be difficult. And it's going to be difficult to say right now, because one, the first point is we don't know exactly where is going to be inflation rate for the year, but considering a 50% which is our expectation it’s difficult to say it right now, because we are in the middle of a period where the government is changing every regulation. So, it will depend mainly also of the, on the - the receipt requirements that if the central bank is going to change this, then we will have more opportunities to see a return on equity around inflation levels. So, my view right now is that - it is going to be really difficult to have a return on equity above inflation rate it is the answer.

Carlos Gomez

Analyst

If that is the case if your return on equity is not above inflation, since you will be reporting inflation adjusted terms, that means that the bank may actually report a loss in inflation adjusted terms is that correct?

Ernesto Gallardo

Analyst

No, we are not going to reflect a loss. In fact, we are expecting - to have a positive result even considering inflation adjustment. So the idea is that it will depend on your equity of course. So, you don't need to have a return on equity, let's say below inflation, or this doesn't mean that we are going to have loss instead of profit.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] As I'm showing no further questions, this will conclude our question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Mrs. Inés Lanusse for any closing remarks. Inés Lanusse: Thank you operator and thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in our company. We look forward to meeting more of you over the upcoming months and providing financial and business update next quarter. As usual, if you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to reach us and we'll be happy to follow-up. Thank you, and enjoy the rest of your day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a nice day.