Earnings Labs

Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (BAM)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 30, 2014

$46.07

-0.88%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the GrafTech Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Kelly Taylor. You may begin.

Kelly Taylor

Management

Thank you, Paula. Good morning and welcome to GrafTech International third quarter conference call. On the call today is GrafTech’s Chief Executive Officer, Joel Hawthorne; and its Chief Financial Officer, Erick Asmussen. We issued our earnings release this morning. If you didn’t receive a copy, please contact Marie Noar at 216-675-2160 and she’ll be happy to fax or email a copy to you. As a reminder, some of the matters discussed during this call may include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Please note the cautionary language about our forward-looking statements contained in our press release. That same language applies to this call. Also, to the extent that we discuss any non-GAAP financial measures, you will find reconciliations in our press release that is posted on our website at www.graftech.com in the Investor Relations section. In particular, on this call we will be discussing for the periods reported the non-GAAP financial items of EBITDA and adjusted operating income. For your reference, a replay of the call will be available on our website. At this time, I’d like to turn the call over to Joel.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Kelly. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining the GrafTech call today. This morning I’ll review our third quarter results, provide an update on the more than $120 million of cost savings initiatives that we have announced and launched [ph] over the past year. Additionally, I’ll provide an update on our balance sheet, our current outlook and the 2015 book building process. Then at the end of the call we’ll open up to any questions. Looking at Q3, company sales were $260 million down about 14% from Q3 2013. We reported a loss of $35 million, largely as a result of special charges associated with our previously announced rationalization initiatives. Excluding these one-time charges, we reported a loss of $13 million or $0.09 per share. EBITDA which excludes the special charges came in at $24 million. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $27 million and net debt was $530 million, a $10 million reduction from year end 2013. GrafTech is operating in a very challenging environment and we continue to feel the impact of those global headwinds in our markets and in our financial results. We’re working diligently to control the things we have power to control. I’ll get in to more of that regarding the extensive cost containment efforts we are executing on. But to put it in perspective, since October of last year, GrafTech has identified over 120 million of total annual cost savings approximately $100 of which are cash savings. Further, we are already making substantial progress in turning those savings into reality. And our 2014 results include approximately $45 million of cash savings benefits. Now let me turn to our segments results. In our industrial material segment, sales declined 11% to $209 million in the third quarter compared to the prior year quarter,…

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Luke Folta of Jefferies. Luke Folta – Jefferies: Good morning, Joel.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, Luke. Luke Folta – Jefferies: Question on the cost cuts. A lot of numbers are provided. If I want to look at the third quarter industrial materials’ performance as sort of the baseline to think about the impact of cost cuts you’ve already realized and then those that are still forthcoming, I guess of the $45 million, sorry, of the $50 million of total cost savings that you’ve realized, how much of that is in IM?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

The vast majority of it is in IM, Luke. Luke Folta – Jefferies: Okay. And that’s going to be reflected in the third quarter performance?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. It’s at the rationalization that we started last year, those cost benefits there. The only impact you’ll see is again inventory flow. The cost savings are there obviously on an ongoing basis, but you still do some inventory flow of higher cost materials you’ve seen in Q3. Luke Folta – Jefferies: Okay. How big of a headwind would you say that was for you?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

We can’t disclose how big of headwind it was, but it will obviously help a little bit as we move into Q4 as that inventory now has a system. Luke Folta – Jefferies: Okay. And the results for the third that I think it’s $2.4 million or so of operating profit, that’s to sort of adjust for the outage, we would add $2 million back to that or the Seadrift outage in the quarter, is that right?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Correct. Yes. Luke Folta – Jefferies: Okay. All right. And then in terms of additional cost cuts that have been announced but are not yet realized, in IM, what would that impact be from here?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

In IM, of the $30 million savings we announced out there, probably an estimate of, and I’ll say, around $5 million, 20% of that $30 million would be a good gauge to use. Luke Folta – Jefferies: $5 million of the $30 million will impact the IM segment? I would have thought it would have been more. But because the corporate actions that you made out, I thought it would have been a greater allocation towards the IM segment just given it’s bigger.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes, it’s the direct. The corporate allocation would be different. We said we were going to save about $30 million which 75% relates to overhead and 25% relates to cost of goods sold. Luke Folta – Jefferies: Okay. But in the segment reporting format, that would both be included in the –

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Both would be included, yes. So then you go to the allocation of the remaining corporate which you roughly you could use on a percentage of sales – Luke Folta – Jefferies: Okay.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

– on allocation. Luke Folta – Jefferies: Got you. Okay. And I guess second question on the guidance for the year. It didn’t remain there [ph], the range, which keeps the door pretty open in terms of some volatility in the fourth quarter. As you see things today, can you just give us the sort of directional segment outlook 3Q to 4Q just some of the moving parts?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes, when you look as far as IM and as you said, we came out with $2 million in 3Q, you just mentioned you could add the $2 million at Seadrift to that. That gets you to $4 million. Sequentially again as we said, volume from Q3 to Q4, we saw reductions in Q3. As we said in year-over-year, that was about a 5% reduction. Volume going into 4Q will probably be similar to what we saw in Q3. So volume, what we’re seeing right now will be flat. Price. On the price front, we said that year-over-year we’re down 8% in Q3. Year-to-date, we’re down about 11%. That implies the price going into fourth quarter will also be very similar to 3Q. And our cost as I said, the only impact again on cost is the inventory flowthrough. There may be a little bit of impact pick up on that, but I’d say not major, just a little. Luke Folta – Jefferies: Okay. And then ES, I mean there was the project launch issue. I actually would have thought that there’d be a bigger loss in that in the third quarter. Do you stand by your full year guidance previously that EBIT should basically breakeven in the full year there?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. We stand by that. Again, the ES team did a great job reacting on the cost containment as I mentioned and made up decisions and move quickly and reacted to take costs out of the system and again, did a good job. And from my view, we were a little better than what we would have thought in 3Q on ES segment. But we still stand by that for the year because again and approximately as we said in the third quarter, there are some sales related to the customer that went bankrupt, that obviously won’t repeat fourth quarter. So you’ll see a little pressure from that. Luke Folta – Jefferies: Okay. Are you able to talk about what the annual sales to that customer have been?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. The annual sales, we disclosed are about $17 million annually and in the 3Q, it’s about $4 million. Luke Folta – Jefferies: Okay. All right. Just last one and I’ll back in the line. But in terms of Seadrift heading into next year, can you give us some sense? Are you seeing – when we look at the oil price move, we don’t have as much visibility as to what the trends are in decant. I mean is it reasonable to suspect that decant prices have moved similarly to what we’re seeing in crude oil prices?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes, that’s a very good, reasonable assumption that decant moves in sync with what you see at oil. The relationship is similar. Luke Folta – Jefferies: Okay. So there’s a situation next year where even decant [ph] prices were to fall by some amount, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s directed to profit. You could see some spread – maybe even spread expansion if anything else of the prices move.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Right, exactly. And that’s why some of the comment, we’re watching closely oil prices and the impact that would have on input cost going to 2015. Luke Folta – Jefferies: Okay. Thanks, Joel.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. No problem, Luke. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Edward Marshall at Sidoti & Company. Edward Marshall – Sidoti & Company: Good morning. So when you mentioned material cost headwinds in the quarter, were you referring to input materials or were you referring to the graphite electrode themselves?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes, I’m trying to think to the bit [ph] where I said material – Edward Marshall – Sidoti & Company: Yes, you just said it in a response to Luke’s question.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Oh, we’re following up [ph] going forward beyond this year. Edward Marshall – Sidoti & Company: Okay.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

And headwind cost was on the GE inventory flowthrough from the first half that were higher cost than what we’ll see here in the second half. Edward Marshall – Sidoti & Company: Okay, okay.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Edward Marshall – Sidoti & Company: I mean, we go through this exercise every year on price and we kind of get an indication sometime in August to September and on this call we get kind of an idea where pricing is going to go. You said you had a few orders already but you didn’t kind of talk about maybe what the size of the book is and how you’re trending to the completion of that book prior to year end and into next year. Can you kind of give us a sense as to where we stand as far as the percentage of completion as we’ve done in prior years?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes, at this time of the year, we really don’t have a good percentage of completion. As I said in the comments, it is only a few small customers at this point that we have concluded with. I think what I said in the past is typically the order book season, if it begins early, which means that demand is stronger, it begins early – you see it begin early in September, October time period. When it’s softening, which we reported that with our shipments inside out, the book-building season gets pushed as the customer has inventories work through it. And that’s kind of what we’re seeing, Ed, is the book-building season is being pushed out and really not getting engaged here until probably November, December, January. Edward Marshall – Sidoti & Company: So what level of confidence does that give you surrounding kind of what your anticipation is or at least what you’re asking for as far as price for next year?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Too early to tell. As I said, we’re notifying our customers. We’re looking at a 10% price increase that’s based on cost inputs, markets, demand and supply. And that’s what we’re looking for. Too early to tell how it goes. Edward Marshall – Sidoti & Company: And as far as the focus of pricing, I mean I understand it’s traditionally been global. Is there any chance that that deviates from that range as a potential for some kind of regional shift, a regional focus or anything along those lines or what that –

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

I mean, in our world, you have nine global competitors outside that are pretty global and compete in pretty much every region. You don’t see a regional price – we get disparity of regional price into the currency, given [ph] that, but overall it’s a global market. Edward Marshall – Sidoti & Company: Now, Luke was kind of alluding to this and I guess I’ll extrapolate a little bit. But you have a wide range for Q4 based on the guidance as far as where EBIT and EBITDA might fall. And I imagine IM’s pretty set for the year on giving kind of the length of lead times and so forth. So I’m curious as to what might be going into the wide range and why you decided not to kind of adjust that or narrow that range as we move into the fourth quarter. I mean, are you preparing for any kind of changes with maybe delays due to the restructuring or anything along those lines? Kind of help me out with that.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. No, Ed, our thinking was, like I said in the comments, we’ll look at how we guide going forward in February on a broader scale. We just felt comfortable with what we came up with September from a yearend range. We’re very comfortable with that range we provided and felt no reason to change the range, either tightening it or changing it. So I won’t read anymore into other than we’re just comfortable with the range that we’ve provided in September. Edward Marshall – Sidoti & Company: Okay, fair enough. Thanks, guys.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Okay. Thanks, Ed.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Phil Gibbs of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Phil Gibbs – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Good morning, Joel.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, Phil. Phil Gibbs – KeyBanc Capital Markets: I had a question on the capacity utilization. I think you talked about 85% or so for the electrode business in the fourth quarter. What are you targeting for 2015 as far as your capacity utilization?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes, again, it’s too early to tell. We’ll target based on when the order book comes to a better completion so we have an idea of what that looks like. Then we’ll determine how we utilize our operating rates. The key thing to determine now obviously is going to be where the book ends up. And we still want to reduce our inventory levels. So as I mentioned, one of our key initiative is to bring inventory out of the balance sheet not only this year but in 2015. So two factors will gauge in determining final operating rates for 2015 is where the order book comes in, our total demand profile that we’ll supply to and then obviously, how much inventory we want to reduce. And it is too early to tell. Phil Gibbs – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Okay. Could you give us a sense of what the year-to-date utilization has been at Seadrift and what – because I think you had given a high level in the fourth quarter, but what has it been year-to-date because I know you said you had this idler [ph] outage in the third quarter, so I’m just trying to gauge where it’s been and how it’s trying to –

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Got it, Phil. Actually, Q3 we ran at just below 90%, so 88%, 89% in that range for Q3. And as you mentioned, we had an unexpected outage in Q3. If you look at the full year expect that 2014 – as I said, Q4 we expect to run over 90% or, in essence, full. So the full year average will be somewhere around 95%, call it. Phil Gibbs – KeyBanc Capital Markets: That was even with – I think you guys took some capacity downtime, right, on the second quarter?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

You got it. And we adjust our effective capacity for that, right, that algorithm [ph]. Phil Gibbs – KeyBanc Capital Markets: I just meant inclusive of all of that because that’s your capacity and your run time. I was just curious as to what your production was for the year.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

We got you. Seriously, when you look at it, that outage was about a 45-day outage. Phil Gibbs – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Okay.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

You take our publicly stated capacity of around 140,000 tons, that tells you – so that’s 45 days what would come out and then you can recalculate what the utilization rate is. Phil Gibbs – KeyBanc Capital Markets: So that was on the second quarter or the third quarter?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Second quarter, 2Q. Phil Gibbs – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Okay. 2Q, okay. And then the one that you took in the third quarter was less than 45, it may have been a couple weeks or something?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Three weeks, three weeks. Phil Gibbs – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Okay.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Three to two, yes. Phil Gibbs – KeyBanc Capital Markets: And then as far as the Showa Denko capacity expansion in the U.S. in the Carolinas, were they a competitor for business in 2014 or is that more of a new competitor for 2015?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Well, you’d have to ask them what their plan is for the capacity. But from what I see on the outside is that that new capacity has not started up yet. And everything we see is that the expansion of the existing facility will probably hit the market in 2015. But you’d have to ask them directly what their plan is. Phil Gibbs – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Okay. No, I was just curious as to what they were, if they –

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Phil Gibbs – KeyBanc Capital Markets: I didn’t know if they were running yet, so I appreciate that.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Phil Gibbs – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Thanks a lot, guys.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes, no problem, Phil.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Your next question comes from Charles Bradford of Bradford Research.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Chuck. Good morning. Charles Bradford – Bradford Research, Inc.: Hi, I just wanted to make or at least clarify that capacity utilization you were talking about, that 85%, that’s as of the new capacity figure, is that correct?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Correct. Correct, Chuck. Charles Bradford – Bradford Research, Inc.: Okay. Have you seen any pre-selling by Showa Denko with their capacity coming on next year?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Again, what we see in the marketplace is that all the competitors looking ahead to 2015 are starting to engage in the book-building process. If it’s again – so I see on a global basis every competitor in the business that we’re currently working on and of course they’re a part of that, so I would think they would obviously factor that into their thinking when they’re bidding next year. But again, you’d have to ask them directly. I’m just speculating. Charles Bradford – Bradford Research, Inc.: Yes. As far as needle coke is concerned, will the price of decant likely to be pretty significantly lower? Do you have any kind of a guesstimate of what your needle coke pricing might be for next year?

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. No thoughts on that yet based on the volatility you’re seeing in decant oil. Again, based on where we were in the book-building process, our objective was to raise price 10% for our key input in needle coke and graphite electrodes. Obviously, as it changes, we’ll continue to watch that and monitor what impact it has on needle coke pricing and obviously on graphite electrodes. Charles Bradford – Bradford Research, Inc.: Okay. Thank you very much.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Thanks, Chuck. Good. Paula? There’s no further questions?

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time.

Joel Hawthorne

Chief Executive Officer

Perfect. Thanks, Paula. Let me just conclude by saying thanks to all the 2,600 teammates here at GrafTech for what they do on a daily basis and what they contribute to make our company successful. We have an incredibly resilient team that gets the job done in the toughest environments. And my thanks goes to them. Thanks everyone else for your time, questions and interest in GrafTech. I look forward to updating all of you after the fourth quarter. Have a great day. Thanks.