Earnings Labs

Barrick Mining Corporation (B)

Q4 2006 Earnings Call· Mon, Feb 5, 2007

$39.01

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Transcript

Philippe Lietard

Management

Thank you for joining us for our quarterly review. It is particularly good to be able to meet many of you in person, rather than guessing who is talking on the telephone as we do the rest of the year. By now you would have seen the results of the last quarter and of the year 2006, and I’m sure you would have noted also that the board of directors decided last Friday to declare dividends. Having mentioned the board, I would like to add that two of our independent directors, Aubrey Paverd, and Karl Voltaire, have joined our meeting today in Cape Town and I hope that those of you who are in the room here today can find the time to meet them. Mark will take us through the details of our operational and financial performance, so we are going to do that now. Other than to congratulate him in and his team for what has obviously been another remarkable year for the company. What I would like to do is to highlight that the fact that Randgold’s records of growth is not so much the product of chance of favorable markets. It is the product of a carefully considered strategy systematically applied. In the hectic deal-making atmosphere of the current gold market, such consistency might seem exceptionally conservative to some. But our response to them is look at the results, not only of the past year but of the years before that. The company’s history of creating and delivering value has very few peers in this. Our strategy is valued on a principle that is simple and it is sound, we invest our financial and intellectual capital in exploration to find and develop successful operations. Successful operations generate profits, which allow us to re-invest in our future and create sustainability. Randgold has highly profitable and successful operations and is developing more. The company has been profitable for six consecutive years and is forecasting further profits for the years ahead. We will use those profits to invest in building a future, and it will continue to do so for the long-term benefit of all of its shareholders and stakeholders. To be ambitious and prudent at the same time continues to be the main challenges of the company. The record shows it has been up to this challenge and that it is well prepared for the next decade. Thank you very much again for your interest in the company, and now I’ll pass you on to Mark. Thank you.

Mark Bristow

Management

Thank you, Philippe, and good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, for us in Durban, Cape Town, and also a very good morning to Victor, whose hosting our video audience in London. I had, as you’re probably all aware, intended to make the presentation from London, but I’m afraid our plans were no match for British Airways, and we thought it was prudent to get here while we could get here. And, anyway, I’m sure you’ll all agree that being in Cape Town is a whole lot better than being in London this time of the year. Again, thank you for attending this presentation and our results for the fourth quarter of the 2006 year and the yearly annual results. As always, we appreciate your interest in Randgold Resources. As you’ll have gathered from your information pack, 2006 was another good year for us with profits before tax up 54% and net profits also increasing despite the hefty tax charge at Morila. Gold production also grew in line with our guidance we have given to the market rising by 30% at a cash operating cost of $258 an ounce, and a total cash operating cost of $296 and ounce. In the first full year of operation, Loulo delivered a very satisfactory set of results and having settled down the plant and the underground operations we’ve moved on to the next phase which is the development of the two underground mines there. Work on the first of these is already underway, and at the state of Gara we have more than doubled the reserve, as you all noticed in the announcement, which you have. I’ll tell you more about both these operations a little later. Morila, on the other hand, came in with a solid contribution and while production was down year-on-year, it…

Charles Cano

Management

Just I missed exactly what you were saying as far as the exceptional costs were concerned at Morila on the provisions for tax. Could you sort-of run through that for me again, please? And also, perhaps, say whether or not there's any scope for those provisions to be reversed, or alternatively, whether or not they're likely to re-occur.

Mark Bristow

Management

Yeah, Charles, that's a good question. And there's every chance of their being reversed. In this new age of auditing and stocks, you have to make provisions for these type of things, and we have moneys owing to Morila on TVA back in the last year, and some duty. And I'll take you through. The total provision we've made is $1.3 million, collectively between the two operations. $300 thousand more or less is for Loulo; the rest is for Morila. And it's to do with two aspects. There's a duty that we pay because we are exempt from field duties, and we used to pay it and recover it. We've recently agreed with government, and it's now in force, that we don't actually have to pay the duties and try to recover it. So that's being sorted, but we're just working through getting the previous duties that we paid back. On the back it's the same, you pay and you recover. And the way you recover is that you offset it. So you've got to go through an audit, with a year in arrears, you've got to go through an audit, and then you can offset it against the taxes you pay. And Morila pays a lot of taxes. The account is panning over. We've reduced it year-on-year. We had the same issue in Kiarma, and we eventually got all of our money back. But our auditors, in their wisdom, believed that we should provide for it; we've provided for it on a cost-of-money basis, time-daily of money basis. The other provision is Indian. We've provided just over$250 million against the $12.1 million debt owed that we carry in the balance sheet against Indian. You'll see a very lengthy disclosure in the reports on the claims that we put against Indian. We believe that we have now identified very large amounts of money that we can go after, and are busy formulating the claims for the liquidation. And I can explain a little bit more, if you want to, on that. The other provision was, there is a legal cost of the Indian dispute. Now, that will come back. We know that there's already enough money to pay that. But again we went through the income statement it's in the GNA number in the account, in the income statement. And there's the extra cost of stocks, which is not a provision; it's a reality, a harsh reality. And really those are the key ... And there's also a charge relating to diesel adjustments on the stock in Loulo. And that really sums up to just under $3 million.

Charles Cano

Management

Okay, thanks very much. Very full answer.

Mark Bristow

Management

Any other questions from London?

David Bucolm

Management

This is David Bucolm, private investor. Mark, could you just confirm what your hedging policy is on the revenue side, and whether you intend to do anything about hedging the cost of diesel – which I think you said accounted for 25% of your cost.

Mark Bristow

Management

We've always hedged our capital risks. And that hedge that you see us working through is the hedge that guarantees the development of Loulo. And we started Loulo when we pushed the button, when gold went through $400 because that's where it met our 20% return, and we could hedge at $400 and guarantee that return. By the time we had worked through with our hedging, the price was up at over $430 on the flat forward, and we managed to lock in a slightly higher gold price, and we reduced the hedge accordingly. And that really locked in the capital program for the open set Loulo project. What we did when the gold price kept going up, is we went back to our shareholders, and we said, “We have always looked at profitability, and we have always been a profitable company,” and the point I made to every shareholder was, when we decided to build Morila, there was not one shareholder that was prepared to put equity into the company. When you tried to see gold fund managers, they refused to see. What we did was, we went to the banks and raised the debt. And we raised a 100% debt for Morila, and we took out a hedge to bank that. And it's been a fantastic investment. With the gold price going up and the decision to go with the underground development, we had to make another decision. And we went back to our shareholders, and we said, “If you would like to top off $100 million, we'll insure that we can meet our capital commitment. We won't hedge it, because you're taking the risk.” Like, a lot of shareholders will say to management, “Don't hedge. We want the risk and the upside.” I've been there. But in…

David Bucolm

Management

There are two mentions in the review of outsourcing increase of companies knowledge and understanding of particular deposits. One to Kingston University, London and another one from the Australian National University, can you comment on that policy?

Mark Bristow

Management

Yeah, this is something we’ve been doing since we very first started, we’ve already had some relationship with very creative geological departments at various universities. We sponsor Ph.D.’s, many geologists work on Ph.D’s on our projects. Efforts in hunting teams with emphasis on Morila, and if you think you know it all you’re going to get really messed up. We believe and personally I believe, to stay ahead you’ve got to invest in research. The problem that we have in our industry today is that the mining industry hasn’t invested in people and it hasn’t invested in retail. For many years it didn’t believe in exploration, which I see signs of people changing their tune now. So, we’re not outsourcing any proprietary information. What we’re doing is accessing very smart people with good ideas and young undergraduate geologists who are aspiring to be a top scientist and we would like to first of all put our hands on them, and secondly to impose them to work 24/7, because that’s what you do when you work on a Ph.D., you don’t get paid for it. And hopefully one day a few of them will join us.

Rob Weinberg

Management

I noticed in your slide on the Gara underground project review that you used a 0% discount rate to calculate your NPV. I wonder what gold price you used for that and I wonder is that the same gold price you used to determine your reserves?

Mark Bristow

Management

$4.75 is the answer. We like our projects given the current cash profile to break even on a cash basis at $3.50. Now, discount factors are different decision makers, this is just showing you how things stack up. You can do the discounting. So this is a real financial model, so we don’t mess around with our figures. But, $4.75 is the number we’re going to use.

Rob Weinberg

Management

And, I wonder then what is, well then you’ve done the calculation I’m sure you have, but what would be the net present value of early repayments of your debt or early repayments of the closing in of the hedges?

Mark Bristow

Management

The debt is easy, it’s not a lot of money. We’ve got $40 million outstanding, in fact what we’re doing there Rob, is that we’re working on refinancing that debt and taking it back up. Why? Because we’re owed $30 million by the Mali government as we financed their share, and we want a clearer bank transactions to under-send that debt. So we’re doing that, in a good way to manage our balance sheets, we’ve got other things that we can do with it. We’re not shy on gearing, we like gearing in the company. On the hedge…do the cost, I said that if I make a 10 to 10% or 15 to 10%, it morphs when you see the return that Morila’s made and Loulo’s made on the capital investments that we’ll make. So, that’s a certain way to look at it. We certainly debate those things and we’re happy with our current decisions.

Martin Steaman

Management

Could you give us some idea of your average cost explored out, and what the industry average is to get an explorer down?

Mark Bristow

Management

We just pulled up on that since this last quarter. So you remember last quarter we increased our ounces with both ounces at Gara with about 800 thousand ounces. We converted 720 thousand of those ounces to reserve last quarter and we added 560 odd thousand ounces at Faraba. So once we get through March, we’ll make that calculation. It used to be $7, around $7 per resource ounce and about $14-15 per reserve ounce. I can’t see that changing after the last round. And the industry average, the big problem, you see it’s easy for Randgold to really do it. Everyone does it, except they have a short-term memory problem in that they do it usually for the last quarter or the last few years or the last five years. But we can do our calculations from the day we’ve raised our first dollar because we’re only 10 years old. And we own 20 million ounces that are discovered and it’s an easy number to do. We add up all the corporate and exploration processes we’ve started and divide it by amount we’ve gotten. So, the industry is somewhere between 150-160 depending on who you listen to. My guess it’s more like 100 or more than that even.

Mark Smith

Management

Is it possible to give us a breakdown of the exploration expenditure in ’07 and where the focus of your greensfield exploration will be?

Mark Bristow

Management

$5.5 million before we need to, well we add 20% to the numbers I’m giving you, maybe even 30%, because we carry options at different levels. $36 million in the Ivory Coast, about $3.5-4 million in Loulo, $2 million in Senegal, $2 million in Burkina Faso, another $2 million in Mali outside Loulo, $2 million in Tanzania which has got a bit of a question mark on because we’ve got some plans for us that haven’t crystallized yet. $1 million in Gana. Then we’ve got, the rest is corporate, the corporate value. And we’ve always put all that into exploration and new business we’ve always lumped that number because people have these corporate costs and where do they go you know? They are the cost of running our corporate business otherwise the mines can stand on their own. What I try to do Mark is we keep an exploration building budget in the center that sort of smoothes it out. We have, out of that we pull back a whole load of money so that not every country is allowed to spend its budget, it has a core budget and then it has a building budget. Acquisition…we were looking at a project just yesterday, the team. The analysts came out…a junior company with resourced answers and a bit of research, they converted it all to viable production and then you get costs…Randgold resources are one of the most sufficient companies in costs in Africa, at about $30 an ounce to process. And oxides, 100% oxides. And then they do all that conversions so it gets in the market, the guys run the share up and they haven’t even found their resources…we can’t even show our resources and so the valuations run very quickly ahead of value. Our big challenge, and you see most of our corporate activity in joint ventures before you even read about the result. That’s what we really try and do. We’re hunting ground, we follow good people, we check where they got frowned, and we find it at the ground floor. Having said that, we’ve looked at a few projects in the past and we’ll continue to look at projects in the future that will…and the big thing for us is really strategic, is there something there, like profitability that’s what attract us. And we’re long term, so we’re very happy to buy something for the long term. I believe that gold production is going to keep gaining under pressure. You can buy profitability whereby…like in a bull-run, it’s tough you know. You mine mine’s that we can’t even make. The big trick I do, is I always ask them to go to their bankers and ask them if their project finances are on a project basis.

Mark Smith

Management

Mark, it would be terrorish of me not to congratulate the board for paying dividends and I can only add that I hope the CPUK private comp. brokers will now start recommending Randgold to their trust clients. My question is not that, that’s water under the bridge. I’m delighted that we’re on the journey to dividends. I’m, interested in the rollover of 2007 hedges to 2010. How does that work, what are the costs and what are the advantages of doing that?

Mark Bristow

Management

There’s always a credit margin to pay obviously. But ultimately it all depends on why you’re doing it. If you think the gold price is going to be $800 or $1000 an ounce in three years time then you probably shouldn’t roll your hedges out. But you know, when we do hedging we do it for a particular reason and the way we’ve worked this out is its going to be 20% of our attributable hold production over the periods forwarding this capital investment in Loulo. That’s a sensible thing to do and sure there’s a cost but then the cost depends on gold price and how you look at it.

Mark Smith

Management

Right, that’s a bit waffley.

Mark Bristow

Management

I’ll add to that. I think the other thing is that Contengo is at a reasonable high. We spread it out, take some of the money off the table now and we also protect ourselves on it, so we’re using our hedge for exactly what we put it in. We’ve just got a lot of capital program. It just makes more sense. You know, in fact, a simple example. There’s 565 thousand ounces, on a very rough estimate it’s 2.6 grams a ton. Potentially, something that will come to bear is real value, it hasn’t cost out anywhere near $76 million. And if the gold price goes that high it’s going to be fantastic, we’ll pay big dividends. And if it doesn’t, you know it’s amazing what happens when the gold price goes down, and I’ve been there I don’t apologize for some of the statistics. It’s not the risky companies, we’ve got full raging bulls in our team and we’ve got some more conservative staff. All the analysts are saying $600 - $750 max and then everyone from there goes to $500. And they sit around saying they should be hedge free, we can be hedge free now. We don’t put anymore hedges in because if the gold price went down down down none of our capital projects are going to fail. We’re going to deliver. We can honestly say we’re happy to not put hedges in the foreseeable future. But, I’ve never said I would not hedge, I don’t contend stock, I’m very happy with what it’s turned out to be for now. Any more questions? Well, thank you all very much for coming. I look forward…for you Londoners it’s probably a good place to be, but in Cape Town it’s probably the last place you want to be after you die, is inside. You’ve got a beautiful day out there, I appreciate you giving us part of your day to come and share this with us. We are inviting you to have a light refreshment afterwards and we got the team out, the directors of the accounts. If you want to pick their brains or ask something to the directors you’re absolutely welcome to do that. And again, thanks for your attendance.