Robert Bryant
Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question
Thanks, Charlie, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide five of our earnings presentation we will find our Q2 consolidated results. For the second quarter of 2015, constant currency net sales increased 8.2% over the prior year driven primarily by volume growth as well as select average selling price increases. Foreign currency translation impacted reported net sales by 11.1% in the quarter mainly from the devaluation of the euro and currency in certain Latin America jurisdictions. On a sequential basis, the currency impact was nearly even with the last quarter overall. Axalta sales volumes on a consolidated basis grew 4.8% over Q2, 2014 reflecting growth across all regions and all segments. In North America, volumes were up 5% led primarily by Transportation Coatings’ growth. In Asia-Pacific, volumes were up 12% also driven by solid growth of over 25% in Transportation Coatings in the region. Latin America in spite of the generally constrained regional economic demand environment saw volumes increased 4% led by refinished and continued solid commercial vehicle production. EMEA volumes increased 2% from moderate expansion in most end markets and in spite of ongoing headwinds from Russia and Eastern Europe. Excluding Russian and Eastern Europe our EMEA net sales increased 5.6% in Q2 excluding FX impacts. With a positive price contribution in the quarter of 3.4% overall we see that net sales were delivered largely from incremental customer demand in each segment as well as our continued focus on globalization of products and strong execution across each end markets. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 15.6% year-over-year to $255 million from $221 million driving largely by strong volumes and improved mix as well as price benefit and lower fixed manufacturing costs from our ongoing productivity initiatives. Variable margins benefited from moderate raw material cost relief in Q2 as we signaled in our prior quarter given prices in select commodity oriented inputs. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by a substantial 380 basis points from last year to 23.4% from 19.6% primarily driven by volume and price drop through as well as some positive effect from cost improvements and productivity enhancement. Moving on to our Q2 2015 Performance Coatings results on slide six, constant currency net sales in our Performance Coating segment increased 8.2% year-over-year driven by growth in all of our regions. Volumes were up 2% for the quarter also from all regions though EMEA demand continued to be held back partly by a notably weak Russian and Eastern Europe demand. Average selling prices were up a robust 6.2% including some benefit from active price adjustments and high inflation jurisdictions. The volume and price increases were offset by 12.1% unfavorable currency exchange translation again primarily driven by the euros and currencies in Latin America. Net sales in our refinish end market grew a strong 10% year-over-year, excluding the negative impact of foreign currency translation, let by results in Latin America. Net sales in our industrial end market increased by 3.8% year-over-year excluding foreign exchange translation exhibiting modest sequential acceleration from the first quarter and led by volume growth in North America and EMEA. Performance Coatings generated adjusted EBITDA of $162 million for the second quarter up an impressive 19% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA margin jumped 480 basis points to 25.4% on the drop through of volume price and cost improvement from 2014. Notably we do not expect this margin level to be sustained near term as the quarter did benefit from some favorable timing of net sales from earlier expectations of a smoother level of overall business performance between the middle quarters of the year. Our new expectation is reflected in our updated guidance for Q3 which is assumes more moderate volume price and margin performance as we progress toward our full year targets which overall remain achievable on our expectation. Switching now to Q2 2015, Transportation Coatings results. Before foreign currency translation impacts of 9.5%, net sales on our Transportation Coatings segment increased 8.1% year-over-year in the second quarter. Net sales on a constant currency basis were led by volume growth in North America, and Asia-Pacific from new business and growth in vehicle production for our customers. Notably Asia-Pacific volume growth in the quarter was up over 25% in line with our previously communicated expectation of strong sequential acceleration as new launches continue for new business with key customers in the region and particularly in China. Although we’ve taken note of the slowdown and overall new vehicle production from Western suppliers in China in recent months. We expect global volume growth in the Transportation Coatings segment to build along with the introduction of new models and continued vehicle production by our customers on lines where we have secured new coatings positions. Net sales on our light vehicle end market increased to solid 5.5% excluding foreign currency translation in Q2 including over 25% volume growth in Asia Pacific and ongoing solid growth in North America. Net sales in our commercial vehicle end market increased an impressive 17.9% excluding foreign currency translation due to strong volumes in all regions in both heavy duty truck and select other vehicle fleets. The Transportation Coatings segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $93 million in the second quarter and increase of 10.7% driven by the growth in net sales and lower fixed and variable manufacturing costs as we begin to see the benefits from our operational improvement initiatives including some procurement savings. We did continue to see a moderate drag from the Jiading, China facility start-up process. Segment EBITDA margin in Q2 improved by 220 basis points to 20.5%. Moving on to our cost optimization initiatives on slide eight, as with the last quarter we are pleased that our progress on the cost reduction and productivity initiatives are well on track. We continue to expect to book combine run rate savings of $200 million by the end of 2017 between the programs Fit-For-Growth for growth and the Axalta Way. Fit-For-Growth, which began in late 2014, continues to show solid progress and we are confident in our forecast of relatively linear savings to be accomplished over the next several years. Savings in the second quarter reflected this goal and operating progress included ribbon-cutting at our new expanded water-borne coatings facility in Wuppertal, Germany, as well as certain other operations consolidations to enhance overall productivity in EMEA. The Axalta Way, our new business process, is a comprehensive term initiative focusing on creating a best-of-class organization, and ultimately driving enhanced and sustainable returns on investment for our shareholders. To achieve our $100 million savings and productivity targets, we continue to process a detailed planning and execution. The impact of Axalta Way in Q2 was still a net cost headwind due to the impact of certain consultant costs and severance. But we expect to begin to see a ramp-up in savings during the second half, with moderate savings to be achieved overall in the amount of $10 million to $15 million for 2015. Looking at the buckets of opportunity in the Axalta Way program for the first three years, we see clear opportunity to reduce cost across nearly all operating and functional areas of the company, with notable individual buckets to include commercial practices, procurements, operations and SG&A. We’ve completed the detailed scoping work on commercial practices in North America with the help of consultants and are confident in our opportunity to streamline our commercial terms across an organization that was formally managed on the decentralized and almost purely regional basis, with few metrics supplied across these managerial boundaries. This effort includes more consistent pricing terms, sales force management and other initiatives aimed at reducing price leakage across a diversified global organization that serves more than 130 countries. Our global procurement organization also continues to pursue opportunities to address its business, efficiency opportunities including efforts to reduce spend in both side and indirect categories. We are confident in our goal of achieving significant savings from addressing our supply chain operations on a global basis. Migrating best practices among the regions, reducing our spend of sole source buys and direct procurement inputs and managing the overall process with a more metrics based approach that has been done in the past. As we suggested on our last call, we seek to provide some color on the magnitude of cost and savings from the Axalta Way program. We are confident in our $100 million overall three year target and have noted that our second half 2015 goal of savings is approximately $10 million to $15 million. Regarding our onetime costs and the EBTIDA to adjusted EBITDA bridge provided in our release and commented on slide eight, we note the transition related expenses associated with establishing Axalta as an independent entity were essentially completed in 2014 as expected and communicated last quarter. That’s said, we identified several items that are one time in nature and related to our new productivity programs and other matters. Our cost associated with the productivity initiatives total $22 million in the second quarter with the bulk of these cost related to the Axalta Way for consultant and severance cost. Looking at some key balance sheet items of slide nine, as of June 30 cash and equivalent totaled $308 million while our total reported debt was $3.6 billion resulting in a net debt balance of $3.3 billion. Our net debt to last 12 months Adjusted EBITDA ratio is now 3.7 times down from four times last quarter. The figure on the right side illustrates our deleveraging trend over the past several quarters. Our expectation continues to be for solid free cash flow in 2015 and we have reiterated our annual working capital assumptions set out in March. Free cash flow in the second quarter improved as expected to $79 million including CapEx of $25 million which is on target for our annual spend of $150 million. Regarding our capital allocation of leveraged targets, we will continue to focus the majority of our free cash flow on debt pay down and seek to reduce our leverage ratio to 2.5 to 3 times before any significant consideration of changing our capital allocation focus. On the weight of this lower balance sheet leverage target, we continue to invest in substantial capital, on organic investment with solid IRRs as reflected in our CapEx guidance of $150 million, including $90 million of product and productivity spend over and above our anticipated $60 million in maintenance CapEx needs. We remain satisfied with the range and opportunity of such products which offer compelling total shareholder return based on our projections. Turning to slide 10, as per our earlier comment, we intend to provide annual guidance and then update it on a quarterly basis. Given that we are half way through the year and remain on target for our goals overall, we are favorably tightening the range of Adjusted EBITDA and we are pleased to maintain the other target metrics for the year. As a result, excluding foreign currency impacts, 2015 net sales are expected to grow 5% to 7% over last year though we expect slightly greater impacts from FX and reported net sales are thus expected to decline low to mid single-digits. Our constant currency growth is still expected in all regions in all end markets driven by volume growth from commercial initiatives launched in 2014 and selective price increases within our performance coating segment in particular. Transportation coatings is expected to benefit in volume growth from the new vehicle coatings positions previously announced and in spite of certain country specific demand reductions, such as in Brazil and moderation of broad production rates in China. We expect to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $870 million to $900 million with a corresponding EBITDA margin of approximately 20%. This is up from a range of $860 million to $900 million mentioned previously. We have also noted a range of expected Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 specifically. We expect Q3 Adjusted EBITDA to fall in the range of 23% to 25% of our estimated full year Adjusted EBITDA. We wanted to clarify that we do not expect the remainder of the year to fall out as even in terms of sequential phasing of Q3 and Q4, given what we regard as a certain amount of earnings benefit that we experienced in Q2 associated with timing factors in the normal course of business. Other model expectations remain consistent with the prior quarter communication. We expect our normalized effective tax rate to be between 27% and 29% of pre-tax earnings, capital expenditures to be approximately $150 million and net working capital to be in the range of 13% to 15% of net sales excluding unusual items. From a cash perspective, again, we have $95 million in transition-related severance and one-time IT-related expenses to be included in 2015 cash usage, the largest of which is approximately $50 million in remaining severance payments. This was previously noted. We also have some incremental cash headwind coming from the Axalta Way severance cost that we have charged in Q2 as noted in our release. This concludes our prepared remarks. We’d be pleased to answer any questions you may have. Operator, will you please now open the lines for Q&A?