Robert Bryant
Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question
Thanks, Charlie and good morning everybody. Please turn to slide six of our earnings presentation where you will find our Q1 consolidated results. Excluding the 10.8% negative impact of foreign currency translation mainly from the devaluation of the euro and currencies in certain Latin American jurisdictions, our first quarter net sales increased 5.2% over the prior year driven principally by volume growth and selected price increases. On a consolidated basis, our sales volumes grew 4.8% over what was a strong Q1 in 2014. In North America, volumes were up 9% with strength across all end markets. In Asia-Pacific, volumes were up 15%, driven primarily by the strong performance of light vehicle and industrial end markets. In Latin America, volumes increased 6% due to a rebound in refinish and commercial vehicle end markets. Lastly, in EMEA, we saw volumes contract 2% explained by demand weakness across almost all end markets, primarily due to weakness in Russia and Eastern Europe. Its overall strong volume results were not achieved by lowering price but rather by volumes coming from new business wins, strong growth from our existing customers, growth of existing products in underserved markets and our increased focus on commercial execution as part of the Axalta Way. We also benefitted from modest price increases in both of our segments. Adjusted EBITDA declined 2.5% year-over-year to $182 million from $187 million, driven primarily by the impact of foreign currency, offset partly by higher volumes with improved mix as well as lower fixed manufacturing cost from productivity improvements. Raw material benefits were not significant although we did start to see some modest benefit during the quarter in select inputs. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by approximately 60 basis points from last year to 18.4% primarily driven by cost improvements and productivity enhancements as well as some volume benefit. Moving onto our Q1 2015 Performance Coatings results on slide seven, again excluding the negative impact of foreign currency translations, net sales in our Performance Coating segment increased 2.5% year-over-year, driven by growth in North America, Asia Pacific and Latin America. Volumes were up 1.9% for the quarter and up in all regions except EMEA which saw some impact from weaker Russian and Eastern European markets as I previously mentioned. Average selling prices were up 0.6% as selective increases were applied in certain regions. The volume and price increases were offset by 12.1% unfavorable currency exchange translation primarily driven by the euro and currencies in Latin America. Net sales in our refinish end market grew by 2.7% year-over-year, excluding the negative impact of foreign currency translation, thanks to Axalta’s continued penetration of the multi-side operator or MSO segment in our continued growth in Latin America. Net sales in our industrial end market increased 1.9% year-over-year, excluding foreign currency translation driven by growth in cover sales in North America as well as ongoing expansion of our product base in other geographies. Performance Coatings has generated adjusted EBITDA of $107 million for the first quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased 100 basis points from the prior year due to higher operating expenses to support our growth initiatives and a dividend paid to a Chinese joint venture partner. If we switch now to our first quarter 2015 Transportation Coatings results on slide eight, the foreign currency translation impacts net sales in our Transportation Coatings segment increased 9.1% over the comparable period prior year. Net sales on a constant currency basis were led by volume growth in North America, Latin America and Asia-Pacific from new business and growth in car builds as well as continued robust commercial vehicle volumes. We continue to expect global volume growth in the segments to build along with vehicle production by our customers on lines where we have secured new coatings positions. Net sales in our light vehicle end market will robust in Asia-Pacific and North America and rose 7.4% excluding the foreign currency translation. In Asia-Pacific, in particular, our light vehicle coatings sales increased by 22% in the quarter compared to the same quarter prior year. Net sales in our commercial vehicle end market increased by a strong 15.4%, excluding foreign currency translation due to strong demand in nearly all regions and by new customer wins in bus and rail markets. The Transportation Coatings segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $75 million in the first quarter, an increase of 20.4%, driven by higher net sales and lower fixed manufacturing cost, partially resulting from our operational improvement initiatives. This result came despite a moderate drag from the startup expenses associated with our new Jiading, China waterborne facility. With the benefit of this volume growth and reduced operating costs, our Transportation Coating segment EBITDA margin grew by 290 basis points to 17.3%. Moving onto our cost optimization initiative slide on slide 9. We are pleased to report that our progress on both of our cost reduction and productivity initiatives remains on track. We expect to continue to achieve combined run rate savings of $200 million by the end of 2017 between the programs Fit-For Growth, which is our European focused initiative and The Axalta Way, which is our new global business process that we’ve rolled out in the first quarter of this year, which will also house ongoing cost and productivity initiatives going forward. Fit-For Growth, which we began to implement in 2014 continued to show solid and methodical process and we are confident in our forecast of relatively linear saving to be accomplished over the next several years after generating $37 million of the $100 million in total savings in 2014. Having already adjusted our labor cost structure to a competitive standard and right size the regions substantially in the last year, our improvements continue into 2015 and are being carefully tracked. At the same time, our substantial investment in our capacity and infrastructure in Europe remains on track for completion and is expected to form the basis of competitive market participation for some years to come. This investment includes expanded capacity for waterborne coatings in Europe, as well as consolidation in both manufacturing and distribution infrastructure to enhance productivity. The Axalta Way, our new business process is a comprehensive and long-term initiative focused on creating a best-of-class organization in all aspects and ultimately driving enhanced and sustainable returns on investment for our shareholders. As such, it is focused as much on driving positive employee, cultural and behavioral change as it is on driving our costs. So the latter is clearly where we are focused in our investor communication today. To achieve our $100 million cost out targets for The Axalta Way, we are focused on completing definitional and scoping processes during Q1 and began more detailed planning and initially execution in recent weeks. We see a clear opportunity to reduce costs across almost areas of the company, including, among others, procurement, operations, commercial practices and many components of SG&A. Some of our early work has been focused on commercial practices in North America, where we have identified significant opportunities to eliminate inconsistencies from a married of efforts to measure and streamline our commercial terms across an organization that formally managed on a more decentralized on regional basis with few metrics applied across these managerial boundaries. Our procurement organization also continued to pursue opportunities to progress its business on a global basis, including substantial opportunities to reduce spend in both direct and indirect categories. Over time, we also expect to achieve significant savings from addressing our supply chain operations on a global basis and migrating the best practices among the regions. Other opportunities exists overall longer timeframe to reduce the SKUs across our operations, which span a 130 countries. We continued to add granularity to our process. We anticipate sharing specific 2015 targets for both savings and associated spend and expect to be able to share some of this in our next quarterly call. For now, we will simply reiterate that we are confident that we can identify and eliminate costs across our organization by $200 million on a run rate basis by the end of 2017. And expect to be able to carry these savings down to the EBITDA line, as well based on our existing business plan. Last quarter, we referenced the existence of fixed cost inflation, which of course is the feature of any global manufacturing organization. Although very real, we do expect that our regular course of business growth and productivity should be able to separately overcome this inflation, enabling our cost-saving programs to flow entirely to the bottom line. We continue to point out that the visibility of savings with no negative cost offsets become hazier with time. But we do expect to be able to continue our productivity drive over time to continuously offset such inflationary elements in the business and maintain or grow our margins, assuming overall stability in the business environment. Regarding our one-time costs and the EBITDA to EBITDA bridge provided in our release and on slide nine, we would like to highlight that the magnitude of one-time costs related to transition has been significantly reduced after 2014. As we expected, we will no longer incur any transition-related expenses. This past quarter, we identified a few items that are one-time in nature and are primarily tied to ongoing consulting fees related to our cost initiatives and termination benefits, primarily tied to our European Fit-For-Growth programs. We also had some expenses related to our follow-on equity offering. We now look at some of the key balance sheet items on slide 10. As of March, cash and equivalents totaled $223 million while gross debt was $3.6 billion, resulting in a net debt balance of $3.4 billion. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was now 4.1 times. The figure on the right illustrates our deleveraging trend over the past eight quarters, which was interrupted only slightly this past quarter, did wne uptick in working capital as seasonally expected and was budgeted. Our expectation continues to be for solid free cash flow in 2015 and we have reiterated our annual working capital assumptions set out in March on our last call. Regarding our leverage targets, we continued to focus the majority of our free cash and debt paydown and intent to reduce our leverage ratio to 2.5 to 3 times in time, assuming a fairly consistent macroeconomic and interest rate backdrop. We would look to update that target in time based on fundamentals, strategic opportunities and feedback from our shareholders. In the meantime, we also have significant organic investment opportunities with quite strong IRRs that we continue to prioritize. As reflected in our CapEx guidance that implies around $19 million of such spend per annum. This amount could be increased depending upon any incremental capital availability. So notably, there is a gating factor on such internal projects related to management bandwidth as well as capital availability. Finally, as we turn to slide 11, as we noted on our March call, we intend to provide annual guidance and an update on a quarterly basis. With our guidance set out only two months ago, although the first quarter exceeded our expectations, we are maintaining our existing annual guidance that we provided on our Q4 earnings call with no changes. Again, excluding foreign currency impact, 2015 net sales are expected to grow 5% to 7% over last year. This growth is expected in all regions and all end markets, driven by volume growth in commercial initiatives that we launched in 2014 and selective price increases across our businesses. Transportation Coatings is expected to benefit in volume growth from the new vehicle coatings positions previously announced and a relatively stable outlook for global light vehicle and commercial vehicle end markets. In spite of certain country specific demand reductions such as in Brazil, we expect to generate adjusted EBITDA between $860 million and $900 million, with a corresponding adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 20%. We expect our normalized effective tax rate to be between 27% and 29% of pretax earnings. Capital expenditures to be approximately $150 million and net working capital excluding previously expensed transition-related items mentioned on our last call to fall in the range of 13% to 15% of net sales. Again from a cash perspective, we had $95 million in transition-related severance and one-time IT related expenses from 2014 that we expect to pay in 2015. The largest of which is approximately $50 million in remaining severance payments. This was also noted on our last call. This concludes our prepared remarks. And with that, we would be pleased to answer any questions you may have. Operator, could you please open up the lines for Q&A. Thank you.