Timothy E. Conver
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thanks, Jikun. Our strategy combines innovation focused on customer needs, with market execution focused on competitive effectiveness. Successful execution of this strategy delivers compelling new value for customers, creates high compounded growth, reinforces our creative culture, and is the first way to build the greatest long-term value for our stockholders. A unique enabler of this strategy is our culture of innovation. Paul MacCready started a remarkable culture brewing in AV that enabled the run of innovation that put 7 of our first-of-a-kind vehicles into the Smithsonian Institution. And it created the new solutions that are now the leading businesses that make up AV today. The next generation of new growth opportunities we are currently moving toward full-scale adoption all came from a team that thrives in our culture of innovation. The economic returns on this innovation are realized by creating leading market positions in growing markets that deliver high long-term growth and strong financial results. While innovation enables our strategy formulation and development, cash enables our strategy execution. As we have said on previous calls, cash for us is a strategic asset. We have learned that closing the deal on adoption and securing an early and sustainable market share of future growth can require quick and decisive commitments of significant resources, within a critical but uncertain window of time. Our cash reserves ensure that we have the funding to move quickly and decisively when adopting customers already independent of capital market uncertainty. We have also learned that large customers are much more likely to take the risk of adopting an important innovation from a small company like us, when they see a long track record of successful persistence and a very strong balance sheet that demonstrates capacity and staying power. Successfully executing these adoption and market share transitions offers by far the highest potential return on our investment. We are intent on maintaining our leading market position in each of our current businesses and growing with customers in those markets. Beyond existing markets, we believe the 6 major growth initiatives we are pursuing represent significant additional long-term growth potential. I want to update you on each of these growth opportunities that represent either the adoption of a new innovation, a move to a large adjacent market, or a combination of both. My public disclosure of this -- many specifics will be limited by competitive concerns, and in most cases I won't be able to predict specific revenue timing and market size. The first of these 6 growth opportunities is Switchblade. An August 14 Army Times article describes the current LMAMS solution as the AeroVironment Switchblade, with its main benefit being precision and the ability to limit noncombatant casualties. To quote the article: "The ability to wave off a target after launch is unique to this weapon system over almost all other weapons, and soldiers and leaders have readily embraced it as an invaluable tool." LMAMS is expected to be an enduring Army need with a program of record projected for 2016. Future combined demand for tactical missile systems could be in the thousands of units per year, representing a 9-figure market opportunity. Pursuing and executing this opportunity could require tens of millions of dollars of investment in capital expenditures for manufacturing scale and capacity. To take a broad perspective of this new market, the U.S. Department of Defense is requesting $6.7 billion for missiles in the fiscal 2014 budget, of which tactical missiles are a component. Each of our current product lines transitioned from an innovation to the early adoption stage to a sustained production business after a significant upward inflection in the adoption curve took place. We think we are close to that point on Switchblade now. We believe customer consensus has solidified around a much larger demand for operational Switchblade systems, or in other words, accelerated adoption. Contracts for significantly higher production volumes would go a long ways to filling our revenue visibility for the year, in addition to solidifying Switchblade as a new growth business area. The second growth opportunity I'll discuss is international UAS. We already have 25 international government customers for our small unmanned airplane systems, and we believe this market will grow significantly over the next 5 years. We are delivering the same family of small UAS to international customers that has made us the leading supplier to the Department of Defense. This approach has proved to be a strong competitive advantage in this expanding market and supports our belief that international revenue will continue to grow this year and beyond. As the local demand from individual countries grows significantly, governments will increasingly value domestic production. To address this customer preference, we expect to invest more in developing business relationships with international customers and partners, and in meeting their local content needs. Initial and sustaining investments, as well as long-term returns from this business model should be similar to our history for domestic small UAS, but just involving more customers. Third, mission services is a growth opportunity where we intend to own and operate the UAS assets to provide situational awareness to customers as a service. In this model, we will be a vertically integrated supplier of the service and the UAS, and the asset cost will be amortized into the service price. The U.S. Department of States' mission service requirements represents a cornerstone opportunity for this business area. The RFI on August 12 for UAV services was important in reconfirming their acquisition intention. We still expect this contract can be awarded in the second half of our fiscal year. However, this RFI provides no updated information on contract value. The investments required to be successful in this service model are different from those required to sell UAS products. AeroVironment will be required to invest upfront to capitalize UAS systems. The assets' terms will be lower than the production business and will require early capital deployment to fully exploit the growth potential of our service offering. Our ongoing investments in Puma AE have improved our strong competitive position to support this Department of State requirement and for the broader mission services opportunity beyond it. Fourth, we continue to pursue Global Observer because we believe it could deliver dramatically more cost-effective capability to deliver high demand communications and seamless ISR in multiple applications, and thereby drive dramatic growth for us. Annual U.S. Military bandwidth demand for commercial satellite service alone is projected to grow to $3 billion to $5 billion in the next 15 years. Because the concept of an atmospheric satellite is such a major paradigm shift, the timing of adoption of this game-changing innovation is one of the hardest for us to predict. The required investment to enable a large production Global Observer program, whether adopted as mission services or as a platform solution, would be very high, but the return on investment is one of the highest we're pursuing. Fifth, AUVSI has sized the United States' commercial market for UAS at $82 billion from 2015 to 2025. This market potential has been gated by access to national airspace, but it appears to beginning to open up. As I discussed earlier, we are an early leader in FAA-type certification. We have seen strong support from early adopters, including the oil industry and in public safety. With over 40,000 local fire and law enforcement agencies throughout the United States alone, these commercial applications are clearly an important growth opportunity. And 2015 appears to be a reasonable estimate for revenue acceleration in this emerging market. A capture of this opportunity will require AV to invest in domestic and international sales and distribution channels, product design refinements to meet unique customer needs and the manufacturing scale and capacity. Initial and sustaining investments and returns for this business model most likely will be very similar to the ones we currently have for domestic small UAS. The sixth growth initiative is in our EES business. More plug-in models are now in automotive showrooms and even more on the way, pulled by consumer demand, supported by governments, and pushed by CAFE standards. We are a leading supplier of EV charging solutions in North America, and we plan to maintain that position as the market grows. We estimate that a 5% penetration of annual auto sales and plug-in electric vehicles could drive an annual charging infrastructure total available market of nearly $1 billion in the United States and more than $2 billion outside the United States. A successful strategy here requires critical insights into the needs of automotive OEMs, utilities and consumers and a coherent solution that optimizes for the needs of all 3. Product and business innovation has bought us a market-leading position for EV charging. Our balance sheet has been essential in gaining access and success with automotive OEMs to date. Our ability to quickly deploy capital to capture and grow along with our customers will remain important in maintaining our market position relative to much larger competitors as the EV-charging market grows. Many of these 6 growth opportunities could dramatically increase our revenue. Even modest success in the initiatives that have already achieved initial adoption can drive long-term, double-digit growth. It's difficult to accurately predict the size, the timing and the rate of adoption required to mature these opportunities into large-scale revenue generators. However, a recent real example of the now canceled Department of State competition might help put these opportunities in better perspective. Our proposal committed us to respond to a maximum demand level that, if exercised, could require over $80 million in capital expenditures, inventory, R&D and start-up expenses in the first year. If you remember, a service business requires AV to capitalize upfront the unmanned airplane system and the support equipment assets. The sales potential from that investment could have doubled our UAS revenue, as well as moderated the lumpy nature of AV's product, orders and sales. We originally planned for this contract to be awarded last November, a fact that puts the need for timing, flexibility and persistence in pursuing these opportunities into context. While timing of these growth opportunities are uncertain, we do know that we are at the leading edge of each one, inventing the category in some cases. Success will require persistence, agility, delivering sustained customer value and assuring customer confidence that we can meet our commitments. Our outlook and our timing for fiscal 2014 remain the same as described in our Q4 fiscal 2013 earnings release. That is $230 million to $250 million in revenue and $0.35 to $0.50 diluted operating earnings per share. To summarize, we're on track for the year. Even though we continue to face contract delays, we are controlling our costs, managing our assets and maintaining our market share. We are making progress on our major growth opportunities that target long-term demand for unmanned airplane systems, tactical missile systems and electric vehicle infrastructure. Our business model and capital structure are aligned with our strategy for long-term growth. Thank you for your continued interest in AV. We appreciate the open dialogue you have maintained with us, and we invite your questions.