Earnings Labs

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB)

Q1 2020 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 29, 2020

$38.05

+0.09%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation First Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker for today, Bill Cimino. You may begin.

Bill Cimino

Analyst

Thank you, Towanda, and good morning, everyone. I hope you all are safe. I have Atlantic Union Bankshares' President and CEO, John Asbury; and Executive Vice President and CFO, Rob Gorman with me today. We also have other members of our executive management team dialed in for the question-and-answer period. Please note that today's earnings release and webcast and the accompanying slide presentation we are going to go through are available to download on our Investor website investors.bankatunion.com.During the call today, we will comment on our financial performance using both GAAP metrics and non-GAAP financial measures. Important information about these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures is included in our earnings release and in the earning supplement for the first quarter 2020. Before I turn the call over to John, I would like to remind everyone that on today's call, we will make forward-looking statements, which are not statements of historical fact and are subject to risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that actual performance will not differ materially from any future results expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements.We undertake no obligation to publicly revise any forward-looking statements. Please refer to the earnings release for the first quarter and our other SEC filings for further discussion of the Company's risk factors and other important information regarding our forward-looking statements, including factors that could cause actual results to differ. All comments made during today's call are subject to that safe harbor statement. At the end of the call, we will take questions from the research analyst community.And now, I'll turn the call over to John Asbury.

John Asbury

Analyst

Thank you, Bill. Thanks to all for joining us today, and I hope everyone listening is safe and well. We began 2020 with momentum and had an ambitious set of work ahead of us. We continue to believe that our strategic plan is the right one, and that we have a great opportunity before us to create something uniquely valuable for our shareholders and the communities we serve, and remain keenly focused on reaching the full potential of this powerful franchise. But what a difference a pandemic makes? And this COVID-19 unfolded, we quickly adjusted both our near-term and mid-range plans.Since mid-March, we have had 90% of our non-branch personnel working from home in order to distribute our workforce and reduce the risk of COVID-19 contagion that we're able to pivot quickly and effectively as a proof point that we built a resilient organization that can react to unexpected circumstances and innovate. Rob will cover the financial details for the quarter, including a deep dive into CECL. Instead of tracking back to our progress on our strategic priorities as I typically do during these calls, I'll cover our COVID-19 response, its implications in the near term, and its implications for our future as we realign our Company's expense base to the new reality of a much lower for much longer-than-expected interest rate environment.We do believe the current pandemic is transitory, and we'll manage through it, but we must position ourselves for the new reality that comes afterwards. In crisis, it's good to play the fundamental strengths. One of our strengths, I believe, is consistency. We have and will continue to operate under the mantra of soundness, profitability and growth in that order of priority. As some of you know, I began my career at the old Wachovia Bank & Trust…

Rob Gorman

Analyst

Well, thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. I hope you, your families and friends are all safe and are staying healthy. Before I get into the details of Atlantic Union's financial results for the first quarter. I think it's important to reinforce John's comments on Atlantic Union's governing philosophy of soundness, profitability and growth in that order of priority. This core philosophy is serving us well as we manage the Company through the current COVID-19 pandemic crisis.We are currently facing an unprecedented crisis management event that requires us to be laser-focused on the safety, soundness and profitability of the Company. As we will discuss further, Atlantic Union enters it's time of uncertainty in a very strong financial position, as we deal with the impact of COVID-19 on the bank's financial results. We have a well fortified balance sheet, a strong capital base and ample amounts of liquidity, which will allow us to weather the current storm and come out even stronger once this crisis has passed.As a matter of sound enterprise risk management practice, we periodically conduct capital, credit and liquidity stress tests for scenarios such as the operating environment we now find ourselves in. Results from these stress tests give us confidence that throughout the crisis, the Company will remain well capitalized and has the necessary liquidity and access to multiple funding sources to meet the challenges of COVID-19. By effectively managing through this crisis, we will become a stronger company that is well positioned to take advantage of growth opportunities, as economic activity resumes aided by government support and stimulus.Now let's turn to the Company's financial results for the first quarter of 2020. GAAP net income for the first quarter was $7.1 million or $0.09 per share, which was down significantly from…

Bill Cimino

Analyst

Thank you, Rob. And Towanda, we're ready for our first caller, please.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Eugene Koysman with Barclays. Your line is open.

John Asbury

Analyst

Good morning, Eugene.

Eugene Koysman

Analyst

Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. In terms of the credit, we appreciate the detail you provided on the loan segments impacted by COVID-19. But can you give us a bit more color on what percentage of clients in these impact of categories, such as retail, restaurants, hotels have asked for a payment forbearance? And also what are your specific loss expectations in these loss categories?

John Asbury

Analyst

Eugene, I'll start. In terms of your question on what percentage of the impacted portfolios are under payment deferral, if you refer to Page 9 of our accompanying slide presentation, you'll see that on the far right hand side modifications. So retail trade is 30%, restaurant 52%, senior living 5%, hotels 67% and healthcare 34%. In terms of what our expected losses are on this, we have no idea.Rob, do you have any better answer than that?

Rob Gorman

Analyst

Well, Eugene, as I mentioned in our prepared remarks, we have provided qualitative adjustments to those impacted portfolios and have increased those reserves against those particular portfolios significantly up to 3 times, 4 times what the model would have told us -- our historical loss model would tell us. So we do have a material reserve against those debt portfolio at this point in time.

John Asbury

Analyst

And Eugene, I would add I should clarify that. If you look at it, we feel good about the nature of these businesses. Things like restaurant and retail, you would expect to have some of the most challenging problems as this works through. Having said that, this is mostly real estate secured exposure. It is virtually all on our local markets, people that we know, guarantor support, etc. So while we will have impacts on it, we feel very good about the provision that we've made. We feel good about the nature of the exposure, and we think it will be manageable. But quite candidly, ultimately, what the loss rates are going to be -- clearly be driven by the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, how long the recession runs, etc. But we feel quite confident, and the overall creditworthiness of the portfolio and our ability to take some hits out of this loss sensitive portfolio as well.

Eugene Koysman

Analyst

Thank you. Really appreciate the detail. And I just wanted to ask a question maybe on the revenue side. What are your puts and takes for net interest margin and net interest income going into the second quarter in terms of impact from the rate-driven balance sheet repricing, maybe accelerating the accretion and impact of PPP loan funding?

Rob Gorman

Analyst

Yes, Eugene. I'll take that one. Yes, in terms of our expectations for the second quarter from a net interest margin perspective, we do expect that that's going to come in lower than what we reported in the first quarter. One of the drivers of that would be, we expect lower accretion income as you saw. About 24 basis points of our reported margin related to accretion income, which was up about 6 basis points from the prior quarter. We do expect that to come down. We do have a schedule within our earnings release that shows how we think accretion income will flow in over the next several quarters and even into the out years.Now I would caveat that a bit. That's based on contractual payment schedules. And as we saw this quarter, you could see an acceleration of that -- recognition of that accretion income if there are pay downs related to that -- those books of business. In terms of the overall core margin, we're also expecting that to compress based on the lower-for-longer rate environment, as we mentioned, but the recent market rate declines with the Fed cutting down to zero, prime rate has come down; with that LIBOR has also come down; and market rates quarter-to-quarter has continued to come down in this -- in the current quarter. So we are expecting that the margin based on that will probably stabilize in -- over time in the 3.15% to 3.20% range.We also -- just to give you some flavor on that. About 27% of our book -- loan book is priced off of one-month LIBOR and another 13% is prime -- priced off prime index. We do have about 11% of the portfolio at floors. So it's not quite as -- the 40% is actually lower. So we are sensitive to lower rates both prime and one-month LIBOR, and those have come down quite a bit. So again looking forward, we expect our core margin of about 3.32% probably will come in over the next few quarters. This is not including any impact from the PPP program, probably in the 3.15% to 3.20% range over the next several quarters.

Eugene Koysman

Analyst

Thank you.

John Asbury

Analyst

Great.

Bill Cimino

Analyst

Thank you, Eugene. And Towanda, we're ready for our next caller, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of William Wallace with Raymond James. Your line is open.

John Asbury

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Good morning, Wally.

William Wallace

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Good morning. Hope you guys are well. I have a few questions. I think the primary one I have is -- I'm just a little bit confused on CECL, and I apologize if this is in the release. I just didn't see it if it was. But last quarter, there was roughly $50 million in remaining mark on purchase loans. What happened to that?

Rob Gorman

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

That's still part -- in terms of the CECL day one adoption, the reserve related to purchase credit impaired note -- purchased credit deteriorated loans was moved over into the allowance for loan loss. That was relatively small amount of the total purchase mark. I want to say less than $5 million or $6 million. Got moved over related to the PCI, PCB portfolio. The remainder is what you see accreting through income that's on the page in the earnings release. That is not going to move directly over from the credit mark perspective, also liquidity marks in there. That's the so-called double-count, Wally, that we talked about. So we have the accretion -- the purchase mark still out there in accreting into income. At the same time, we have to provide a reserve for non-purchased credit deteriorated loans, the so-called good book or acquired book.

William Wallace

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

So do you give the total balance of the remaining marked to add up all of those years of accretion? Is that...

Rob Gorman

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Yes, that accretion -- that will come through over a period of time. Again, we've estimated that in the earnings release. But again, it really depends on how quickly that comes back to us which will over time. But it could be accelerated depending on if there is pay-offs, etc., which we saw in the first quarter, which is why we had a outsized accretion income number.

John Asbury

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Okay. So, theoretically, that -- there is no credit expectation in that number. It's all interest rate now.

Rob Gorman

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Pretty well. Yes, basically we're treating the credit we actually did on the day one adoption -- about half of the increase in a day one CECL increase in the allowance for credit losses related to the good book acquired portfolio, the double-count.

William Wallace

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Yes. Okay. Alright. So -- OK. So -- yes, so it's like bond accounting now where -- obviously, it accelerates with the loan pace, but there is no credit loss impacting that number. Okay. Alright, that's helpful. On the PPP Part 2, John, you mentioned that you guys are actively applying and funding -- applying for funding, I guess. I don't know if you're actually funding them yet. But can you kind of give us a sense of maybe the pipeline of Part 2, and if you have an idea of what the average fees might look like on those?

John Asbury

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Yes, sure, Wally. I'm going to ask Atlantic Union Bank President, Maria Tedesco, to chime in, because she will have the most current information available. Please bear in mind, we're working virtually here. So we're not seeing each other. Wally, what what I would say, as Maria comes on, it's that -- as a reminder, we left the application portal open when funding expired Thursday a week ago or whatever it was. We invited new customers in at that point in time, but I can tell you that when the SBA opened for business, yesterday, we had 3,000 applications ready to drop in.Maria, can you take it from here, please in terms of -- I think we had 400 new applications, yesterday. Tell us where we are on this, please.

Maria Tedesco

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Yes, absolutely. Again, we had 3,000 going into yesterday. We did manage to get 900 approved yesterday for an average loan amount about $100,000. We're hoping to continue that effort today, and for the next couple of days until we get through the 300-plus. We're continuing to get new applications at a clip of about -- a little over 400, yesterday. So it's an incredible effort.

John Asbury

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

And Maria, my recollection is that, of the 3,000 completely vetted and internally approved applications ready to drop into the SBA E-Tran system, I think that was some total of, something like $300 million. Does that sound about right in terms of some of borrowings?

Maria Tedesco

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Yes.

William Wallace

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Okay. And then, any idea -- you gave the average size of what it was approved, but it's hard to get the average fees because of the -- some of the big [multiple speakers] and there is a 1%. Do you have an idea of that $300 million, what the average fee was sitting in the pipeline?

John Asbury

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Rob, I'm thinking that...

Rob Gorman

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Yes, that's going to be -- the average is going to be less than the $350 million. So think about a 5% fee [indiscernible].

John Asbury

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Most of those should be -- I don't know if there any individually large ones. So I would agree most of those would be the 5% range. So Wally, with this ultimately does will be a function of how long this money remaining available, and quite candidly, the speed with which we can get the approvals through the SBA system. Theoretically, we believe we could get 3,000 applications through in about six hours. The problem is because of all the glitchiness of it that was so well reported yesterday.Having said that, to Maria's point, I can tell you when I woke up this morning, the last update I saw, said we had approved something like a 1,024. And as Maria indicated, we were up late last night. We got well over 900 yesterday, which is very good. So I would expect that, if we did a $1.4 billion, which we did in SBA approvals [indiscernible], we know we had $300 million yesterday ready to drop in plus -- we're probably going to settle in at somewhere between conservatively, I bet you were approaching at least a $1.8, maybe north of that depending upon how long the funding remains available.

Maria Tedesco

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Yes, that's right, John. That's about what's in our pipeline. And our process is very smooth and very efficient, but it's really quite frankly dependent upon E-Tran and its ability to allow us to process in the manner that we would like, which is at a much faster pace.

John Asbury

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

And Wally, I can't help and point now. As a reminder, Atlantic Union Bank was 15% of all-round one PPP approvals in Virginia by count and by dollar. If we calculate our depository market share at about 7%. So we think we punched 2x above our weight. I am so proud of this team. That's a $1.4. 90% of that $1.4 billion went into Virginia. That's good for our economy. It's good for our clients. It's good for everybody.

William Wallace

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Yes. I agree. Thank you. What was the dollar amount of the hedge loss in the first quarter mortgage?

Rob Gorman

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Rounding, it was about $1 million, Wally.

William Wallace

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Okay. And then I'll just one last small question, [indiscernible]. In the wealth business, due to the nature of the kind of timing of fees, would we kind of be starting at a down 10% to 15% level in the second quarter?

Rob Gorman

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Yes. You're right. We are looking that the revenue stream is going to be down -- yes, again in the second quarter as you saw. Of course, really it does depend on where the market -- what happens to the market. Yes, we are anticipating that fees will be down in probably about the $1 million or so range on a quarterly basis.

William Wallace

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Okay.

John Asbury

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Great. Thanks, Wally.

William Wallace

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

I'll let somebody else ask. I appreciate it.

Rob Gorman

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Thanks, Wally.

Bill Cimino

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Towanda, we're ready for next caller, please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Laurie Hunsicker with Compass Point. Your line is open.

John Asbury

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Good morning, Laurie.

Laurie Hunsicker

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning. And I just wanted to go back to margin for a moment. I just wanted to make sure that I heard all these comments together in the right way. So, again, to your point of core margin guide of 3.15% to 3.20%, and it looks like 15 basis points or so just comes out of accretion income just going March to the June schedule, and I love the detail you presented on that. So we're thinking about, probably, an all-in reported margin that's going to be tracking somewhere may be 3.27%, 3.28%, 3.29% on a reported basis relative your 3.56% that you reported this quarter. Am I thinking about that the right way?

Rob Gorman

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

That's right, Laurie. I would say, yes, that kind of add about 10 basis points to 12 basis points from accretion income.

Laurie Hunsicker

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Okay. That's helpful. Okay. I love all the detail you provided. So thank you for that. I just wondered if we could go back to Slide 9, just a couple of things I want to touch on. First, what is your leverage lending exposure? And then second, how much of Slide 9 -- how much of that $2.2 billion is leverage lending?

John Asbury

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

I'm going to ask, Doug Woolley or Dave Ring to verify this. I would say it's gone near zero. So what I think about -- when I think about leverage lending in these categories, I would mostly be thinking about franchise restaurant finance. I'm very familiar with that business. I was involved with this previously. We don't do that. So we are not doing large scale franchise operators, syndicated restaurant, these are all local business people. Something of these are franchises, but you're talking about a handful of them.And Doug, do you and or David Ring have anything you would add to that, any leverage lending Exposure in this category on Slide 9?

Douglas Woolley

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Yes. Laurie, this is Doug. Good morning. There is a no leverage lending exposure in this category. We have a little over $300 million, and that is not in -- it's not in these categories.

Laurie Hunsicker

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Got it. Okay, that's helpful. Okay. And then, just keeping on Slide 9. In terms of hotels, you had mentioned that of the $650 million, it was done at a 60% LTV, which is helpful. But of your $651 million, how much of that is C&I versus CRE? And what percentage of that is real estate, or is that all real estate?

John Asbury

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

That should be all real estate you're looking at. Doug Woolley, do you want to comment on that?

Douglas Woolley

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Yes. It's all loans to the hotels themselves with the limited service flag that John described.

Laurie Hunsicker

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Great. And do you have any hotel C&I exposure?

Douglas Woolley

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

We have -- there is a few dollars in that, that would be not secured by real estate. But everything we have -- everything else we have to a hotel and every hotel is secured by real estate. Is that your question, Laurie?

Laurie Hunsicker

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Yes. That answers it. That's helpful, very helpful, and thanks. And then, just to confirm, I'm pretty sure the answer is no, but just to confirm, you have no oil exposure, correct?

John Asbury

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

I'm sorry, did you say oil?

Laurie Hunsicker

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Yes. Just to confirm do you have no oil exposure, is that correct?

John Asbury

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Zero. Anything you would see quoted as energy would be a natural gas like local distribution gas company, etc. Zero for oil. Zero for coal.

Laurie Hunsicker

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Perfect. Okay. And then, Rob, can you just update us on the third-party consumer loan book, just where those balances stand?

Rob Gorman

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Sure. Yes. So, we brought the -- total third-party is probably in the $215 million to $220 million range [ph]. Lending club was, as you know, approximately $120 million at the end of the year. It's down to under $100 million. Now, it's about $98 million of that total, but that's been running off pretty significantly.

Laurie Hunsicker

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Okay. That's great. And then, categories that I'm we less worried about that I just wanted to get an update, if you have them. If not, I'll follow up with you afterwards. But residential and home equity, do you have what your LTV is and your FICO is for both of those books? And if not, I can follow up with your separately.

Rob Gorman

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Yes. I don't have that in front of us here, Laurie. So, we could follow-up on that.

John Asbury

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Everything we do would be prime, of course, but we'll have to get the details on that for you.

Laurie Hunsicker

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Okay, perfect. I will catch up with you later. I'll leave it there. Thanks so much.

Rob Gorman

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Thanks, Laurie.

John Asbury

Analyst · Compass Point. Your line is open.

Thanks, Laurie. Towanda, we're ready for our next caller, please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Stuart Lotz with KBW. Your line is open.

John Asbury

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

Hi, Stuart. Good morning.

Rob Gorman

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

Good morning.

Stuart Lotz

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

Hi, guys. Appreciate all the color on the margin. Maybe circling back to your non-interest expense. Rob, I don't think you guys gave any specific guidance, but you mentioned that you were looking at peeling back given the revenue headwinds. Just curious how you're thinking about a run rate from this quarter's $95.5 million and how you guys are kind of thinking about expense cuts this year?

Rob Gorman

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

Yes. Thanks, Stuart. Yes. So, it's all -- as we came into the year, we were projecting that we would take fourth quarter run rate, which is around -- was around I guess, above $94 million and add 4% to that for the full year. Basically, that 4% is being taken out as we speak through management expense reduction actions. The way to look at that is the run rate is going to drop from the first quarter, probably in the $2 million to $3 million range in the second quarter, come down a bit more in the third quarter, and then another $2 million in the fourth quarter. So, I think we're going to end the year based on the details of the expense management actions we're taking to be in -- around the $89 million to $90 million range coming out of the fourth quarter. So, material adjustment to what we had originally expected to spend this year.

Stuart Lotz

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

And in terms of geography, is a lot of that coming out of kind of discretionary spending like marketing, or is it -- are you looking at your branch network, any kind of optimization there? I'm just trying to kind of...

Rob Gorman

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

Yes. It's pretty much across the board. We're looking at everything. Actually, we have looked at everything. We've approved everything, and we're executing on it now. But all those items that you just mentioned and in the buckets, let's call it salary and benefits and then other discretionary items, travel, marketing, vendor. We're looking at all vendor management outside consulting costs etc. So, it will be across the board.

Stuart Lotz

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

Got it. And I guess maybe just one more from me. On the credit side and kind of looking at additional provisioning next quarter, I really appreciate the breakout, 60% of the allowance currently as compared to last cycle total losses. Just kind of curious how you guys are thinking about provisioning going into 2Q, given we've seen further economic deterioration, kind of, how are you guys in putting that in your model? And could we expect maybe not a $60 million provision, but something kind of along the line of the increase this quarter?

Rob Gorman

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

Yes. In terms of that, we -- as you noted, we have seen the economic forecasts worsening, which on its face, if we were to end the second quarter today, we would be looking at probably provisioning some elevated level compared to prior quarters. We don't expect that -- we've kind of run some of the numbers. We don't expect it would be near the first quarter provisioning we have to do, although we would see additional reserve build. Now, we don't know that. Things can change. We'll see where we are, as we go through the quarter and where we end up and what the outlook looks like coming out of the second quarter. But again, to your point, likely, we would add to our reserves a bit, if we were to close the books today and let them all win.

John Asbury

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

Yes. Ironically, the -- we aren't really pointing toward the origination fee income off of PPP, but I have to say that it is not lost on us that effectively could pre-fund, so to speak, any incremental reserves that could be necessary. That's a beneficial in so many respects. It's a bridge for clients and businesses and obviously there is some income associated with it too.

Rob Gorman

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

Yes. That's true, John. And in terms of when we talked about the margin and net interest income, my comments excluded anything related to PPP in terms of the net revenue stream, which we hope will be booked through net interest income, which will affect both the dollars and the net interest margin itself.

Stuart Lotz

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

Awesome. And John, maybe one more from me. Virginia, the stay-at-home orders kind of through I think early June, which is a little bit more conservative, what we've seen in other states. I'm just curious if you're hearing anything else there with regards to some of your local markets and how consumer behavior is kind of thinking about that or if you know the governor ultimately decides to lift that sooner than June 10th. Just curious any commentary.

John Asbury

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

The fact that the Governor of Virginia happens to be a physician is probably related to our relatively conservative approach. Everything has been pretty manageable so far. Interestingly, the headline this morning as I looked at the Richmond Times-Dispatch is the governor is at least showing a receptivity now to thinking about a regional reopening of Virginia. That's something that was off the table as recently as a few days ago. And so, it would not surprise me if in certain of the markets we've had relatively little incidence of this, we began to see them reopen sooner. But I think bottom line, they'll take a thoughtful approach. We are in a different place from certain other states who have been more liberal. And quite candidly, I think that the governor is doing the right thing. So, I think that will be at the relatively conservative end, but I got an email from my dentist yesterday telling me they're reopening early May. The way this works technically, certain businesses are going to begin to open in early May and we'll see. So, I expect it will be phased back in.

Stuart Lotz

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

Great.

John Asbury

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

Thanks, Stuart. And Towanda, we're ready. We think we have time for one more caller, please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brody Preston from Stephens. Your line is open.

John Asbury

Analyst

Hi, Brody.

Brody Preston

Analyst

Hi, good morning, everyone. Just wanted -- Rob, just maybe ask a more pointed question on the provision. So another regional bank this morning granted in a different geography, said the difference between using Moody's March forecast and the April forecast resulted in a 35% increase in their provision. So, I guess if we sort of looked at that difference, is that similar to the numbers that you've run for 2Q so far?

Rob Gorman

Analyst

To be 35% of the Q1 numbers?

Brody Preston

Analyst

Yes.

Rob Gorman

Analyst

Yes. That's -- you have to put a fine point on it, but that's not out of question.

Brody Preston

Analyst

Okay. And I just wanted to -- yes, I know we talked about the margin at nauseam, but I just wanted to circle back. 11% of the loans have floors for the deck. Is that the amount that is at floors or what's the percentage that is already at floors?

Rob Gorman

Analyst

That's about 8% of that 11%.

Brody Preston

Analyst

Okay. And the borrowings, could you remind me the flipper advances that you have, the majority will flip in 2Q, right? And could you let us know what the difference between the funding costs in the most recent quarter for those for super advances was and versus what they will be when they flip?

Rob Gorman

Analyst

Yes, that's a good question. Brody, I have to look at that, again. Let me get back to you. I can't remember exactly what that number is, but maybe, on our call after this, we can talk about that. I'll get the info.

Brody Preston

Analyst

Okay, great. On the PPP for loans, it looks like just based on what you did so far, it looks like the mix spits out about a 3% fee. Is that in the ballpark?

Rob Gorman

Analyst

Yes, that is.

Brody Preston

Analyst

Okay, great. And then, you obviously had an outsized impact relative to your deposit market share across your footprint. Just wanted to better understand the breakdown. I think John, you mentioned that you had some to existing borrowers, some to new borrowers. I just wanted to better understand the breakdown there. What was the existing borrowers versus new?

John Asbury

Analyst

Brody, I'll ask Maria Tedesco to comment on this. I will say that our position on the first round of funding, as we were focused on the existing client base, we knew we were going to be overwhelmed. That was obvious. And so, we were very much focused on serving the existing client base first. Having said that, we had a long line at our door of our prospective relationships, trying to come in. And so, as we gained confidence later in the process of Round 1, we've begun to change our thinking, and then we immediately opened up for Round 2 to accept new customers. Maria, do you have any current stats in terms of what percentage do we think based on what we're seeing really more -- it's more of a Round 2 issue -- our new customers?

Maria Tedesco

Analyst

Yes, that's right, the Round 2. But if you look in total of all applications, obviously, the new customers coming on in the second round. We are very close to 17.5% new customers.

John Asbury

Analyst

And I think that what's happening is we've been fortunate to receive good press based on the good results we had in Round 1. So, we've -- it's been frankly -- we never view this as a business development opportunity, but it's at our doorstep. So, we have absolutely been able to welcome new relationships into the bank now.

Brody Preston

Analyst

All right. Great. And then, just a couple more quick ones for me. The healthcare portion of the book, is that mostly dentists and small practitioners?

John Asbury

Analyst

Yes. It's going to be exactly what you think of smaller medical practices, lots of dentists, that sort of thing.

Brody Preston

Analyst

Okay. And then, obviously you mentioned, John, that you're continuing to invest in digital, which just given the current state of things as become more and more important. So, do you have any, I guess, maybe data around mobile adoption and usage since social distancing began?

John Asbury

Analyst

Yes. Kelly Dakin who's Head of Digital and Customer Experience is on the line. Kelly, are you able to comment? I think we stated that we've seen a 46% increase in digital usage. By the way, I want to complement, the digital team under Kelly Dakin, our technology teams under Chief Information Officer and Head of Bank Operations, Dean Brown, they are among the many heroes of the whole PPP. We could not have done what we just did a year ago. And so, Kelly, could you comment on what's going on with digital adoption?

Kelly Dakin

Analyst

Sure, absolutely. So of our current customer base, we saw a 46% jump and customers activating online and mobile. So that was an increase of customers who had already involved, but may not have -- become active. For the non-online active customers, these are the newer enrollments. We saw a 25% increase in enrollments. We are seeing quite an uptick in usage. Mobile deposit, obviously, is seeing the biggest uptick based on the fact that customers aren't going into the branches, so we are seeing an overall uptick there as well as our digital sales channels have seen quite a large increase in the non-digital -- new to bank digital sales.

Brody Preston

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you very much for that Kelly. And then, I guess maybe one last one on the expense base. Obviously, the branch transformation, just given most branches are sort of effectively closed right now. I'm assuming that just given the new revenue environment, as maybe -- some of that going to slow down even if were opened up in the back half of the year. How should we think about the investment in the branches?

John Asbury

Analyst

Well, I think that it is very clear to us that we have learned to work differently, customers have learned to bank differently. And it is causing us to rethink some of the traditional notions of the role of the branch. We are still committed to the principal branch presence. But I think what you're going to see is we'll be more aggressive in terms of rationalization of the branch network, mainly because we're seeing our customers begin to bank differently. So, we're not yet -- Shawn O'Brien, Head of Consumers is on. Shawn, if you have anything you want to add, but we are definitely studying some of these changes in consumer behavior with an eye toward ways to better rationalize the branch network. Anything you would like to add to that comment?

Shawn O'Brien

Analyst

No, I would just -- I would remind that, yes the branches lobbies are largely closed, but because we have drive through to nearly all our branches, they are very busy. So, the branches are open and functioning, and we're fortunate to have all those drive throughs. And then to John's point, we are looking at rationalizing the branches, given some of these changes. And I think we'll announce that here in the near future.

Brody Preston

Analyst

All right, great. Thank you, Shawn. Thank you everyone for taking my questions. I appreciate it.

John Asbury

Analyst

Thanks, Brody.

Rob Gorman

Analyst

Thanks, Brody.

Bill Cimino

Analyst

And thanks for everyone for dialing in today. We hope you stay safe and be well.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone have a wonderful day.