Earnings Labs

AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU)

Q1 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, May 10, 2012

$90.73

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

And good afternoon or good morning to those in the U.S. Welcome to the AngloGold Ashanti first quarter call for the 3 months, to March 31. Members of the AngloGold Ashanti executive team are present. And as it's customary, Mark Cutifani will give an overview, followed by Venkat with a walk through the financials. Mark will talk through an exciting slate of exploration and projects and then offers concluding remarks before our Q&A. As is customary, I'll just briefly read through our Safe Harbor Statement. Certain statements made in this communication, other than the statements of historical fact, including without limitation, those concerning the economic outlook for the gold mining industry, expectations regarding gold prices, production, cash costs and other operating results, growth prospects and outlook of AngloGold Ashanti's operations individually or in the aggregate, including the completion and commencement of commercial operations of certain of AngloGold Ashanti's exploration and production projects and the completion of acquisitions and dispositions AngloGold Ashanti's liquidity and capital resources and capital expenditure and the outcome and consequence of any potential or pending litigation or regulatory proceedings or environmental issues are forward-looking statements regarding AngloGold Ashanti's operations, economic performance and financial condition. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause AngloGold Ashanti's actual results, performance or achievements, to differ materially from the anticipated results, performance or achievements expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements. Although AngloGold Ashanti believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements and as a result of among other factors, changes in the economic and market conditions, success of business and operating initiatives, changes in…

Mark Cutifani

Management

Thanks very much, Stewart. Ladies and gentlemen, it's, again, a pleasure to be here. I am working off the presentation that you should have on your computers. But I will continue to refer to where I'm up to and try and keep the commentary succinct for those that may not be listening or reading off presentations. For us, very important quarter this quarter. Obviously, important in terms of earnings in spite of the short-term headwinds we've been experiencing South Africa with good result and whilst the tax credit that we received based on the great news we've had from the South African government on reduction in corporate tax rates. A good result, cost have held pretty well in line, in fact, better than guidance and I think about 10% up on last year, this time last year, against the inflation rate across the industry of about 15%. So we've done a lot of work on our costs, as people know, with the implementation of Project ONE and we're certainly seeing some benefits. But still more we can do and we can do a lot better on the cost side and if South Africa had delivered in terms of its potential, you would've seen probably a 5% better results. So so real opportunities for us to continue to improve. EBITDA is up 39% to $800 million against the gold price that's up around 22%. So a solid effort there, which sets some good results across the operations. The other thing that or the other couple of key features of the result has been the exciting exploration results. And I'm being told that I used the word exciting 39x in my presentation this morning. So I'm going to try and use that word a lot less this time around, Stewart. Finally, the…

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. You'll see from the first quarter results, which we presented today, that we are presenting our consolidated group financial results in U.S. dollars only. This change brings our reporting more in line with the global spread of our business, reporting by our international peers and our investor presentation. This change also brings with it the incidental advantage of reducing the size of our printed quarterly report and content of the tables supporting the financials by around 50%. However, for the benefit of any analysts, who uses our rand numbers. These have been made available by way of supplementary information on our website. If I can now turn onto the slide headed First quarter financial results. Despite the production setback in South Africa that Mark outlined earlier. The adjusted headline earnings for the first quarter was strong at $429 million. You will recall that the first quarter of 2011 was the company's first quarter following the removal of the hedge book, which with the benefit of the full exposure to spot prices, adjusted headline earnings rose to $209 million during that quarter. The first quarter 2012 adjusted headline earnings of $429 million represents a more than doubling of the adjusted headline earnings off that base. When compared against the previous quarter, which tends to be seasonally our strongest quarter, adjusted headline earnings rose by 45%, or $134 million from $295 million last year to $429 million, primarily due to 3 factors. Our previous quarter's earnings were adversely impacted by $105 million worth of environmental provisions; net impact of $61 million from lower quarter-on-quarter production, partly negated by favorable phasing of expenditure and one soft impact of deferred tax credits relating to the statutory tax rate changes as outlined in our announcement in early…

Mark Cutifani

Management

Thanks very much, Venkat. I think, as an observation, I think we're the most highly rated gold affiliation in the hemisphere of those numbers Venkat, even more than South Africa. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm actually on Slide 15, looking at the exploration slide with the yellow and the green dots. Very simply put, we're showing 15 exploration projects. The 11 yellow dots represents our current active projects, and as you know, we renewed the portfolio on an annual basis. And 4 green dots are showing forms, what are potentially significant gold discoveries. Firstly, in terms of Egypt, we continue to see hits on the Hutite prospect. And certainly, does continue to confirm, we think we've got 3 to 5 million-ounce potential there. We've seen new hits on a 1.7 kilometers surface trend on what appears to be a 5-kilometer structure in Djibouti, which is near Ethiopia. We've seen 2 new discoveries in Guinea one which we've talked about before in Saraya. But we also have Kounkoun, which certainly is support for our strategy to look at doubling the size of Guinea within 7 years. And in Colombia, it looks like we put some holes through what could be a significant copper gold portrait deposit. So very exciting and continuing to renew the portfolio. And just to reinforce that point, Mineral Economics Group in their most recent publications have acknowledged the AngloGold Ashanti team as the most successful exploration outfit in the gold industry. And I think with these results, one could easily argue that we are, if not the most successful, one of the most successful exploration outfits in all of the mining industry. And I think Roric Smith have done a tremendous job and the results this quarter are exceptional. Firstly, if I go to slide 16, you'll see…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We have a question from John Bridges from JPMorgan. John D. Bridges - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: I was just wondering, your comments on the changes in South Africa seem pretty amazing. I just wondered, was there any particular trigger that has led to these changes?

Mark Cutifani

Management

John, I think, I'm very frustrated. I'm an Australian in South Africa. And I watch the debate in Australia and I watch the debate in South Africa, and I can't understand why people report Australia in a reasonably constructive way and South Africa so destructively. Very simply put the nationalization debate has been put to bed, very clearly. The company debates of these things in a very open way. What we are now debating is what is the tax structures that should apply in the country? It's an open debate. Unlike Australia, we are being asked to comment and propose alternatives to the ANC [ph] as a ruling party on what we should see as a tax structure. And we praised the government on their royalty ratio. We thanked the government for reducing corporate taxation rates. And we've been given an opportunity to debate the SIM's document unlike any other jurisdiction in the world. For the life of me, I can't understand why things get reported so negatively. Now I do concede that we don't promote ourselves as a country. And we, as a company need to promote what's happening in the country better than have. I'm very encouraged, certainly a long way to go. A long way to go in terms of the next 6 months. But I tell you what, we positioned to debate with the government in South Africa, very differently to the way the debate was positioned in Australia. And I am sure we're going to deliver better outcome because we are engaged. We have a say. And we get off our bums and we lobby and we're working the problem. That's all I've got to say. John D. Bridges - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: That's quite a lot. Over the years, it's been quite amazing to see Anglo and AngloGold Ashanti popping up as discoverers or joint discoverers with some of the major -- world's major deposits.So I really like the recognition you got from those guys up in Canada. Just -- could you talk a little bit these things you're finding in Djibouti and Ethiopia? Given all the political uncertainty we see nowadays, what would be required for you to actually get involved over there?

Mark Cutifani

Management

Again, Roric Smith and the team have just done an outstanding job on the exploration front. We've now put on the title several major discoveries. And if all of these comes through, I think its up to 8 or 9, I mean, that's a remarkable performance. And the guys have got more prospects and they're drilling other prospects. So we appreciate the feedback. On Ethiopia, to be frank, John, I was focused on Ethiopia. And we're watching it very carefully. But there's a structural trend that runs into Djibouti. So when the guys told me that we picked up a 5-kilometer structure, I had to go back to the maps and look where Djibouti was. Being very honest. So they've done great work. They've worked off the major structural trends. And like the good explorationists they ignore the boundaries of countries and they look at the major geological trends. And this thing runs through from Ethiopia. So very good structural first principles geological work. It's a 5-kilometer trend. The guys believe it's sort of a 3-meter type structure. We've had some very high grade hits which is always encouraging or high grade channel samples, which is always encouraging to see that you've got that intensity of mineralization. So quite frankly, we're not sure what we've got other than we've got 1.7 kilometers, a very good channel sample results. And we can get back to you on the JV details. We're still getting the details. It only come through on the last week. But more I'm happy to follow-up with you and give you some background on that. And we've been doing less work in Ethiopia. This thing was the thing that caught our guys' eye. And they haven't even told us that they sort of move into Djibouti. And we're quite excited. And I'm going to have and do a trip to Djibouti.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from David Haughton from BMO Capital Markets.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

If I could just start, perhaps, with your again there Mark and Venkat looking at the earnings. Can you talk us through that $90 million rebate that you got from South Africa? And I presume that's included in your $429 million, which is about a $0.20 impact. Is that a one-off? Or what should we be looking forward on?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

Okay. David, you're right. The 90 -- if I can just explain to $90 million credit. It includes a credit from South Africa with just purely a deferred tax rate adjustment of $131 million. And it's partially mitigated by the Ghana tax rate increase because the stability agreement protects us beyond 30%, but we will be on the hook from 25% to 30%, and that's a $41 million. So the net impact is $90 million. Yes, you are correct that's one-off on the deferred tax credit. In cash terms, this year, 2012, we are looking at a ZAR 300 million saving. And I think ZAR 300 million saving and cash flow terms in terms of tax. Our South African tax rate used to be around 43% on the gold tax formerly. That is now dropped to around 34% in South Africa. And group as a whole, our effective tax rate based on current assumptions, et cetera, is around 32% consequent to those change.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

That's right you anticipated each of those questions on various tax rates there. So that's [indiscernible] I haven't finished yet, Mark.

Mark Cutifani

Management

Sorry, sorry, David.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

Down to Cerro Vanguardia. Visited that operation late last year, as you know, very impressive part of the world. All sorts of confusion thereabout what the state of players is in Argentina. I'm pleased that you seem to have be held in high standing there. How are you going in repatriating funds out of there? Or are you just investing funds domestically?

Mark Cutifani

Management

David, we've had a good track record in Argentina, and with the turnaround of the operation in the last 3 years and the investments we've made in San Julian, we'd certainly kept the good relationship, the good environmental performance being good. The actual President comes from that region. So when she heads down that way, we invited her to come have look and she said some very nice things, which was helpful. We are moving things through very carefully keeping operation going. Although, it certainly become a lot tougher but we're certainly been supported in what we've been doing. And so we've been able to continue to do well. And obviously, want to keep that relationship in the right side of things.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

All right, specifically ask Barrick, Humana and Goldcorp over the last quarterly, how they been able to get funds out of the country? None of them have an answer because they're all still net investors. Because what I'm uncertain about is that if you want to pull money out, what exchange rate do you get charged at? Is it the official or the unofficial rate?

Mark Cutifani

Management

David, what we've been doing, as I said, we've been able to move parts and materials because some guys who have trouble moving parts, importing parts. We've been able to move some stuff in, so we've manage that. We have not tried to do any thing on a cash flow basis, Venkat, so we haven't really tested the system. We are being prudent in looking for the right circumstances and opportunities to do that in a constructive way. So we haven't tested the system as yet.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

Okay, well, given the feedback that I had from Barrick, Humana and Goldcorp. No one has tested the system yet. But everyone is talking about the requirement to have goods manufactured in country. It doesn't seem to be a huge impediment, there is capacity in country to manufacture these items. But its just been lifted hassle factor.

Mark Cutifani

Management

Yes, not everything -- one thing I'd say some of the high precision engineering stuff will be problematic. We've been able to bring some stuff in, David. But our experience -- we've been in Argentina for a long period of time. We've seen this, they tell me before, you have to keep a constructive and positive engagement going with the government. The good news is the government has 15% of our business, sorry, 7.5%.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

7.5%.

Mark Cutifani

Management

And we've been -- we've changed the numbers. We've been in a dialogue. We've been dividending, we formed crews, which is the government. And the President was saying that was the only shift model she was looking at for the mining industry. Now if you know the history of the problem at the petroleum producer, there's been a long running argument over the history of ownership and commitments on investment and we continue to invest. So not wanting to comment on that specific circumstance. We certainly not considered to be in the same category. We've been very constructive in our engagements. And we want to keep that relationship. And we want to keep it there. So I can't say any thing more other than that's where we are.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

Right. Over to Cripple Creek. I thought one of the major hurdles for expansion there was the pad footprint. How have you addressed that? And do you -- and is that no longer an issue for you?

Mark Cutifani

Management

We -- it's actually a process. So we extend the pad footprint. We've got all the approvals in place. So we're in good shape. And in fact, we don't go with the project unless we've got that in place. But we are going out and up. So we were in place, were putting stuff and some of the low level pads, as we speak. That's also helped us to get some nice production going, as we speak. So we've got those approvals. We've had to really relocate roads. We still have to do a couple of things on county permits, but we lay our low risk permits. So all the hard works being done. Roads have been relocated. And we've got a mill position that's been approved. So we're in good track right across the board. The other thing, David, on the volumes, we -- the mill has been designed so that represents less than 15% of the material. So we will actually take the tailings and put them back onto the pads so we get a second crack at the gold on the leach pads that we don't have to build a dedicated tailings facility because we've kept it below the 15% threshold. So it becomes economically a very smart way to set the operations up and set the leach pads up. So...

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

So you'll have filter places on that tiles. So you can dry stack it?

Mark Cutifani

Management

Sorry, say that again, David.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

Sorry, at the backend of the mill, you'll have some filter pressures so you can dry stock the tiles predominant leach?

Mark Cutifani

Management

Yes, but we don't have to do too much because it's such a low volume. But yes, it strike. I'm not sure if the that the filter pressures in the flowsheet, but it's actually a dry material that goes back into the leach pad. But we have a second crack at it. So it doesn't matter if it's a bit moist. Because you're putting solutions through it anyway.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

Right. Now to South Africa, Section 54 stoppages. Obviously problematic, not only for you, but for how many in the first quarter.

Mark Cutifani

Management

Right.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

You were describing the dialogue that you had to improve that. Is that to reduce the stoppage period or to enhance the safety principles? Or what should we be thinking about?

Mark Cutifani

Management

All of the above. I've had 2 sessions with the minister, one as an AGA representative and one with my Chambers Mines Vice President hat on. We talked about the safety issues in their own right. Industry, we all have a lot to do a lot better on the safety front. We've all agreed on that. We're at a point now where our Project ONE implemented. It takes about 12 months for us to get to the operating level on our Project ONE implementations at a site of 500 people. Given that some of the South African sides of 4,000 or 5,000 people, it actually takes you 2 years. We are only now implementing at the operating level. And we think that will give us a big kicker over the next 12 months. We're hoping on the safety and productivity front. And certainly, the mines department have been very impressed with the work they've seen so far in the early days of the changes we've been introducing. The key [ph] change that I think we're walking through with the mines department at the moment is that what I suspect you'll see is, instead of a whole mine being stopped for a safety incident, it's more likely we'll get sectional shutdowns as opposed to full mine shutdowns. So they call that a Section 55. And that we'll get a much more, certainly, circumspect application of the Section 54. No we've seen that so far in the last month across the industry both the platinum sector and the gold sector. But I must say that we got to keep improving our safety performance, which we've been doing to reinforce that. But the ministers been open. The principal inspectors have been very open. I had a number of meetings with Mike out here and we're certainly in the right dialogues. And I think we've improved our connection with the DMRS as part of that process. And we're certainly seen probably the 50% to 60% reduction in those types of stoppages, which is material.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Harry Mateer from Barclays.

Harry Mateer - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

Venkat, just a clarification question for you. You mentioned that you do expect net debt to increase a bit during the balance of their year, given CapEx and the acquisition activity. Can you just give us a bit more detail on that? Do you expect to use the company's cash balance, which is fairly ample at the end of the first quarter? Or do you anticipate gross debt actually increasing, so actually borrowing on your bank lines or potentially doing a bond deal?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

Okay. If I can pick up that response to the question. The first comment I want to make is as you would have seen in our annual report, our commitment to maintain our international investments credit rating stands. That's sacrosanct. We will not go to any point which will compromise our investment grade credit ratings, and that was a quite an important discussions we have had with both Moody's and S&P. That's point #1. Point #2, certainly, under the metrics, as you would've seen based on what Moody's published, based on our cash flow metrics now, you've seen an improvement in fundamentals. Our first approach is to draw down on the existing cash balances. Then, as and when the project capital increases, needless to say, the funds will be generated from operations. But we do have the 2 revolving credit facilities available to draw down as requested -- as required. But in any event, what we're looking at is any increase in debt will be well within the tolerance limits of the rating agencies. We have had dialogues with both the rating agencies in this regard. We also fully recognize that these project capital, which would be spent over '12 and '13, is going to contribute to quite increased cash flow for periods '14 and beyond. So they do allow an element of effectively shorter peaks in the debt levels, but within certain elements [ph]. So the key message here is certainly, the net debt would go up quarter-on-quarter, but not to a point which would impact credit rating.

Mark Cutifani

Management

Harry, just another point. Obviously, the gold price is very important to that equation. And for $100 movement in the gold price, on a net cash flow basis, we get about $300 million back. So Venkat and I are debating how, what gold price we would see. So we still think the gold price has legs, particularly in the second half. So that sensitivity, about $100 on a full year basis about $300, $300 million dollars to $100 an ounce, that gives you a bit of a sensitivity -- a feeling for the sensitivities on the revenue side.

Operator

Operator

Our final question comes from Joung Park from MorningStar.

Joung Park - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst · MorningStar

So just a couple of quick questions. First, given the new second quarter outlook, as well as the first quarter costs, the full year cost guidance implies a big drop in costs in the second half of the year. So what's the main drivers behind those costs improvements? Looks like at least fuel prices assumptions are going down throughout the year.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

I think the main driver is ounces. If you look at the ounce profile, we've had 980,000 ounces in Q1, 10 40 for Q2, and we're expecting a very -- a stronger second half of the year. So the main driver is basically in terms of ounces. That's what drives the full year cash cost down.

Joung Park - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst · MorningStar

Okay. And then have you guys heard anything from Eskom about future rate hikes in South Africa coming over the next, say, a couple of quarters?

Mark Cutifani

Management

John, the latest information we have from Eskom is that they downgraded the last hike from 26% to 16%. I'm looking at Venkat, yes, he's nodding his head, so I've got the numbers right. We are also, as an industry, in active conversation with Brian Damers. Eskom has done very well. Revenues have been strong. The industry is arguing that they continue to be circumspect with those increases. We are lobbying the finance department. Again, as I said, we're are active in a number of fronts. So we have not been given a forecast beyond that reduction. But I'd have to say that the politicians, the government, in particular, is very sensitive to cost pressures, to encouraging jobs, to encouraging investment. And so we're hopeful if you have anything better than that most recent announcement.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. We have no further questions. If you wish to make final statements.

Mark Cutifani

Management

I think, ladies and gentlemen, we've had a mixed quarter in terms of 3 of the regions that have delivered very strong results. And we've been sailing into some heavy headwinds in South Africa. We certainly see the situation improving in South Africa, but with the implementation of the new Project ONE initiatives on the ground, we deliberately make sure that what we put in place sticks. So you're not going to see a mad rush improvement, albeit, I'd love to see that. But it is going to be measured. It's going to be sustainable. We're doing it with the government, and you will see improvements. So more work to be done. More opportunities. The other regions continue to go well. We're very pleased with the based that they've established in terms of the Project ONE improvements and the sustainably, which has been a great improvement. That will be I think, the key feature of the operating or should be a key feature that we're expecting in the operations. The other thing will be news flow from some of these new prospects that we've identified. And obviously, keeping you abreast of the project developments that we have right across the portfolio will be important. And certainly, we are very switched on to the sort of things that others have seen on projects. But again, we're probably been quite conservative in the way we've estimated our numbers. And you will see that, that conservatism is in the Kibali numbers and other projects. That's the way we operate, certainly, committed to delivering and making sure that by 2014, you're seeing all these new projects hitting the bottom line and really going the base for the new AngloGold Ashanti. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. On the half of AngloGold Ashanti, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.