Earnings Labs

AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 15, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the AngloGold Ashanti Q4 2011 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please also note that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stewart Bailey. Please go ahead, sir.

Stewart Bailey

Analyst

Thanks, Dylan. And everybody, good morning and welcome to the presentation by AngloGold Ashanti's Executive Team of our results for the quarter ended -- quarter and full year ended 31st of December 2011. The presentation format will be as usual: Mark Cutifani will review the company's performance over the quarter, Venkat will then contextualize the financials and Mark will conclude by highlighting key projects and exploration progress before taking your questions. We do have members of our executive team present, and we're also joined by Frank Arisman, a nonexecutive director on the board. As usual, well read the Safe Harbor statement. Certain statements made in this communication, including, without limitation, those concerning the economic outlook for the gold mining industry, expectations regarding gold prices, production, cash costs and other operating results, growth prospects and outlook of AngloGold Ashanti's operations, individually or in the aggregate, including the completion and commencement of commercial operations of certain of AngloGold Ashanti's exploration and production targets and the completion of announced mergers and acquisition transactions, AngloGold Ashanti's liquidity, capital resources and capital expenditure and the outcome and consequences of any litigation or regulatory proceedings or environmental issues, contain certain forward-looking statements regarding AngloGold Ashanti's operations, economic performance and financial condition. Although AngloGold Ashanti believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of, among other factors, changes in the economic and market conditions, success of business and operating initiatives, changes in the regulatory environment and other government actions, including environmental approval and actions, fluctuations in gold prices and exchange rates and business and operational risk management. [Audio Gap] of certain of these and…

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · the HSBC

Thanks very much, Stewart. Ladies and gentlemen, I will start with a couple of comments on the gold price. Certainly, since the pullback in the gold price late last year, we've certainly had a much more positive start to 2012 with the price up a healthy 10% since the beginning of January. We believe the fundamentals for a strong gold price remain intact. Inflation across many of the key emerging markets is a reality. The euro crisis continues to rage across the continent, and the Fed has created certainly near-0 interest rates for the foreseeable future. The long-term resolution to the expanded U.S. balance sheet, however, is a little less obvious. And while demand remains robust from investors and consumers alike, the industry is finding it tough as ever to respond to record price levels, notwithstanding AngloGold Ashanti's very prominent pipeline or great pipeline that will kick in over the next 2 years. Consistent with gold's revitalized value proposition in our uncertain world, we believe the AngloGold story is one of a revitalized business, leveraging value for shareholders over both the short and the long-term by -- and through 3 key areas: firstly, growing the size and quality of our resource base; second, improving margins and returns on investment; and third, by providing a clear pathway to value growth for shareholders both in terms of capital and cash flow appreciation direct to our shareholders. With the full year and the fourth quarter results behind us -- or time periods behind us, I'm happy to report an exceptionally strong set of results for the full year with significant gains across several key metrics. Most notably, we posted record adjusted headline earnings of $1.3 billion, up 65% from last year. Yet, that earnings figure was built on cash flow from operating activities…

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'll be covering the following 4 areas in today's presentation, starting with the fourth quarter financial results, and then full year financial results, moving onto free cash flow and balance sheet, and then concluding with the outlook for 2012. Starting with the fourth quarter financial results, adjusted headline earnings of $295 million for the fourth quarter were adversely impacted by the following 3 factors, all of the amounts post-tax: lower spot prices as compared to the previous quarter and higher unit cash cost, $42 million; profit lock-up in higher levels of unsold gold at the quarter end, $8 million; and as Mark mentioned, annual reset of environmental rehabilitation provisions of $105 million. The above factors and higher quarterly expenditure profile resulted in lower adjusted headline earnings as compared to the $457 million recorded in the third quarter, which, if you remember, included the benefit of a $70 million once-off deferred tax credit. Adjusted headline earnings per share was USD $0.76 or ZAR 6.15 for the quarter. For the benefit of analysts on the call, a breakdown of the year-on-year increase in the rehabilitation provision is as follows: inflation and discount rate assumptions amounted to 40% of the increase; change in design of the tailing storage facility amounted to 23% and, as Mark mentioned, primarily Obuasi; change in methodology following request from the EPA, 20%; revision of life of mine plants resulting in accelerated cash flows, 17%. Net profit attributable to equity shareholders for the quarter amounted to $385 million, and this included the $95 million post-tax benefit of the impairment reversal at Geita following the asset turnaround. It's important to note that the impairment reversal benefit is not included in headline earnings or adjusted headline earnings given its capital nature. Margins calculator…

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · the HSBC

Thanks very much, Venkat. We continue to make very good headway on project development, and a notable indicator here is not only our focus on staying within budgets on projects, but also our improving capacity internally to fully invest the capital expenditure budgeted for each year. Our total capital bill last year was $1.53 billion against guidance of $1.6 billion. Good progress in all our major growth projects, which accounts to more than $500 million of that expenditure. As Venkat mentioned in his outlook phase, we will significantly step up the growth portion of our expenditure in the coming year as we move into development in the DRC and Mali and continue to progress Tropicana towards production. I'm pleased to announce approval, as we flagged at our Analyst Day in November, of our [indiscernible] Phase 2 project at Moab Khotsong at a capital cost -- and this is a life of mine capital cost -- of $395 million, and the first phase of the below 120 CLR project at Mponeng of $416 million, again a life of project estimate. And in fact, our project expenditures in South Africa are about $170 million for the year, about 17% of our project capital spend, both large-scale, very important projects, but at the same time, extremely cash generative and will be self-funded by the South African business, and they will still have good cash flows above and beyond those projects. So again, low risk, high return projects that extend the life of the 2 cornerstone mines in South Africa on a relatively low commitment in terms of the full project capital portfolio allocation. At Tropicana, the project remains on budget and on track to go full scale in Q4 2013. We expect to be -- that will be the first of our major…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Sabrina Grandchamps of the HSBC.

Sabrina Grandchamps - HSBC, Research Division

Analyst · the HSBC

My first question is on Kibali. Can you maybe provide some details on what is required for board approvals and how that differs from what has been done so far? And hypothetically speaking, when could the holdup in approvals be negative to the project timeline?

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · the HSBC

The holdup in project approvals will not be negative to project timelines. The board approved commitment on critical part expenditures. It will not have an impact on timelines. What we're actually doing is finalizing the detail in the feasibility study that our board requires to sign off that all risk measures have been appropriately addressed. We've already demonstrated in material form that those issues are under control. The board was satisfied and supported the continued commitment to the timelines that we've put forward. I expect the approval will occur in the next few weeks, certainly probably before the next set of board meetings. But one must remember that we have made a massive change to our project execution strategies in the group. Unlike most other groups, we are not reporting drags in timeline delivery or capital estimates, and we're going to make sure that we don't change that with Kibali and Mongbwalu. I think Mark and his team have done a [indiscernible] job at Kibali and there should be no impact, certainly from our end, with respect to the delivery of the Kibali project and for Mongbwalu on the same regard -- in the same regard.

Sabrina Grandchamps - HSBC, Research Division

Analyst · the HSBC

And can you provide an update on your South Africa technology project?

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · the HSBC

Yes. We're very pleased with the way that's going. The team is actually putting together a proposal for a prototype implementation to be installed at Great Noligwa. They are hoping to have that completed by the end of 2013, so that we've actually got an operating product up in 2014. And for us, that's a really important milestone. It's both a safety project, it's a productivity project, it's a cost reduction project, it's an energy reduction project, and it will change the face of mining in South Africa. So we're very excited. We expect to see a prototype in place, and we will, in fact, be presenting some key elements of that project in Brazil in April as part of the Kellogg Global Innovation Network meeting that I'll be chairing with the head of the Mining Innovation Group out of the Kellogg University from Chicago. I'm very proud to be lead player in that program.

Operator

Operator

I have no further questions. Sir, would you like to make some closing comments?

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · the HSBC

Very happy, as we said from the outset. The last 3.5 years, the organization has been through a major restructure. We've seen record earnings results, return on capital employed is 25%, return on equity, 20%. We're investing cash flows in high return projects that will add value for our shareholders. And at the same time, we are continuing to build our dividend return to our shareholders on the basis of a very solid balance sheet, a very conservatively geared balance sheet. We believe that 2012 will be another significant improvement year. And as we move into 2014, that growth, as we grow both production base per share and our cash flow per share, we think, provides compelling value and demonstrated leverage compared to the physical gold where a 1% increase in gold price, in our case, represents a 2% improvement in our key financial metrics and, for us, with our improving dividend yield, we think, presents a compelling case for the purchase of equities and, in particular, AngloGold Ashanti equities. And thanks for listening.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much, sir. On behalf of AngloGold Ashanti, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.