Mark Cutifani
Analyst · the HSBC
Thanks very much, Stewart. Ladies and gentlemen, I will start with a couple of comments on the gold price. Certainly, since the pullback in the gold price late last year, we've certainly had a much more positive start to 2012 with the price up a healthy 10% since the beginning of January. We believe the fundamentals for a strong gold price remain intact. Inflation across many of the key emerging markets is a reality. The euro crisis continues to rage across the continent, and the Fed has created certainly near-0 interest rates for the foreseeable future. The long-term resolution to the expanded U.S. balance sheet, however, is a little less obvious. And while demand remains robust from investors and consumers alike, the industry is finding it tough as ever to respond to record price levels, notwithstanding AngloGold Ashanti's very prominent pipeline or great pipeline that will kick in over the next 2 years. Consistent with gold's revitalized value proposition in our uncertain world, we believe the AngloGold story is one of a revitalized business, leveraging value for shareholders over both the short and the long-term by -- and through 3 key areas: firstly, growing the size and quality of our resource base; second, improving margins and returns on investment; and third, by providing a clear pathway to value growth for shareholders both in terms of capital and cash flow appreciation direct to our shareholders. With the full year and the fourth quarter results behind us -- or time periods behind us, I'm happy to report an exceptionally strong set of results for the full year with significant gains across several key metrics. Most notably, we posted record adjusted headline earnings of $1.3 billion, up 65% from last year. Yet, that earnings figure was built on cash flow from operating activities of more than $2.6 billion, an increase of almost 60% from last year, and if one reflects back to 2008 of a $600 million base, it's more than a 300% improvement over that timeframe. So that improvement talks not only to the improvements within the operations, but also the overall improvement in the market for our product. Free cash flow after all outgoing expenditures from capital expenditures and finance charges was a robust $833 million, an impressive number that has been reflected in the halving of our net debt to around $600 million at year end. With the earnings pad demonstrated from the interim of the business and with a strengthening balance sheet even with increased investment in our growth projects, the board has declared another significant increase in our final dividend of ZAR 2 per share. This is more than double the level we flagged at our Q3 results in November and provides a clear indication of our intent to improve direct returns to shareholders once we provided for our growth pipeline and preserved our investment grade credit rating. Now into the fourth quarter, we saw strong performances from the Continental Africa portfolio, and good cost containment in South Africa helped us to hit a production -- helped us -- helping us to hit the production guidance number of 1.114 million ounces at a total cost of $762 an ounce, which was actually better than our target set in November. Crucially, the year ahead is the bridge for us as we return to growth in 2013 in the first phase of our target step up to our 5.4 million to 5.6 million ounce 2014 production range. Adjusted headline earnings for the 3-month period were $295 million, impacted primarily, as we flagged in November, by noncash rehabilitation charges. This compares with adjusted headline earnings of $457 million the previous quarter, which you remember, had a once-off benefit from a $70 million tax credit. Venkat will go into the details, but I should make the point that, that once-off noncash charge is a provision that goes over 30 years predominantly at Obuasi and so, on an annual basis, is almost negligible compared to the baseline $400 million profit level that we're operating at as we go forward. In terms of gold price. So just to cast a look back to the year we had last year and how far we've come as a business, I think it's important to look at the year-on-year picture, and it shows that the financial leverage that exists across all key earnings and cash flow metrics relative to the rise in the gold price is quite significant. Earnings have almost doubled and free cash flow that's calculated after all capital expenditure has also seen a strong increase. As we have demonstrated on the ground, if you want ultimate leverage to the gold price, look no further than AngloGold Ashanti. In shorthand, for every 1% increase in the gold price, we are delivering more than a 2% increase in our key financial metrics. On dividends, you'll recall after that last quarter, we moved to a quarterly dividend schedule and declared a maiden third quarter dividend of ZAR 0.90 per share. While we flagged our intention to do the same again in the fourth quarter, the board has elected to pay a significantly high ZAR 2 dividend in recognition of the strong cash flow and earnings performance in 2011, as well as the strong fundamental outlook for the business. That takes the full year dividend payout in 2011 to ZAR 3.80, which is 162% more than was paid in 2010. Importantly, this represents a compound average growth of 56% since 2008 when we launched our new business strategy and our change model. Looking forward to 2012 and taking into account not only the increased project capital expenditure but also the health of the business, we will target a quarterly payout of around ZAR 1 per share for the year. While this will be obviously contingent on a number of factors, not least of all is the gold price, cash flow and other growth opportunities that may present themselves, we believe this is a sustainable level to pitch the dividend for the year ahead. On the downside, we've had an extremely difficult quarter from a safety perspective. We lost 3 colleagues at Kopanang and the Vaal River region in addition to 2 contract employees at Obuasi and an employee at Gramalote. We continue to push ahead with our systemic initiatives aimed at eliminating fatalities across all our operations, and we have made a number of adjustments to the key programs to try and accelerate that improvement to go further ahead. Having said all of that, we must acknowledge the good work and the operation because it actually was, on a full year basis, our best ever safety performance, representing a 15% improvement on our all accident frequency rate and actually a 10% improvement on a year-on-year fatality frequencies rate. So yes, it was a tough quarter, but at the same time, we must acknowledge the best ever annual performance, and we've got to do a lot more work to make sure that this year is better again. On operations. Richard Duffy's team in Continental Africa turned in another solid quarter with production up 2%. While we did see an 8% increase in cost, we are still investing heavily in reliability and maintenance improvements across the organization. Most importantly, and I think indicative of the management improvements, the region delivered a 42% improvement in safety performance for the year. One of the more encouraging stories for the quarter was the success we've seen at Siguiri where the project -- where the rollout of Project ONE has resulted in an outstanding performance from the mill, which saw record throughput to mitigate some of the lower grades we've been dealing with of late from the mining operations. Our aggressive exploration -- I meant production, was up 20% and again, basically, no capital achieved that result. Our aggressive exploration campaign is continuing with almost 14,000 meters of RC drilling, reverse circulation drilling, done in December alone. I'll talk to some of these results in our exploration discussion, but suffice to say, the hits in the potential oxide resource that we spoke to last quarter have kept coming. Once we have the Project ONE success married with improvement -- improved grade reconciliation and potentially some new high-grade surface oxide, the significant upside continues to unfold for this great asset in Guinea. Navachab in Namibia also provided a good case study during the quarter with the Project ONE improvements to plant availability and improved grade together helping the mine achieving 19% boost to production and a 16% cost reduction. At Geita, another great result. It was the outstanding performer within the Continental Africa portfolio, delivering 144,000 ounces at a cash cost of $486 an ounce, despite repairs undertaken to the SAG mill gearbox. For the year, the team delivered 494,000 ounces at $536 an ounce, making it the second largest contributor in the group, only slightly behind Mponeng. If we step back for a second and look at where this operation has come from, in 2008, Geita's production had dropped to 264,000 ounces and costs ended the year at $921 an ounce. And in fact, we peaked at well over $1,000 an ounce in one quarter. Since then, we've undoubtedly had the benefit from improved grade, but it's the fundamental operating performance that's given us the biggest lift. And remarkably, in almost doubling production and significantly reducing costs, we've invested minimal capital. Now looking forward, we're seeing extremely encouraging underground grades coming through that -- coming through that speak to the long-term future for what is a global Tier 1 gold asset. If you recall, we've set a target of 500,000 ounces at $500 an ounce as our twin objectives. We have now unequivocally delivered on the production target, and we've done better on cost after taking 3 years of inflation into account. So very proud of what the team's achieved, and certainly it augurs well for the future, and it augurs well for the future in terms of the underground potential as well. In Ghana, we continue to see signs of our 2 operations making strong recoveries. Iduapriem continued to deliver on its targets and continues to deliver records on records on a weekly basis with an increase in production through improved operation stability and control. The reported costs were higher due to an increase in payroll cost and continuation of some of the maintenance program that have helped us deliver on this improved production. And that's been part of our Project ONE strategy to invest in maintenance, get the assets performing to their potential and then holding those assets at that high production level. At Obuasi, we again saw encouraging signs of stability at the operation that undoubtedly provides a significant value opportunity for the business. Better [Audio Gap] and underground equipment availability helped the 4% increase in production while the uptick in costs was largely due to preventive maintenance, again as part of our overall improvement program. You'll remember a similar pattern at Geita as we were bidding down the improvement programs back in 2010 and getting a handle on stability through the operation by working the maintenance backlog. So we're in that early phase as part of the Obuasi rollout of Project ONE. And don't forget, Geita was the first project that we rolled out Project ONE, and Obuasi was actually the last operation in the queue. While the full year production of 330,000 ounces is not a big number for a resource of this size, it is significant in that it represents for the first time in our ownership history of the asset that it's actually met its production targets and budgets. And even more important than this, it is that it made a contribution of almost $40 million to the business after providing for all capital and working capital. That compares to an outflow of almost $100 million in 2008, so the $140 million cash flow swing goes with $188 million EBITDA swing, and certainly that's a true -- I think it's a true reflection on the good work the task force has done, but certainly, only starts to scratch at the real potential we see in the asset. With the depth of detail that comes along with this improvement work, we feel like we've made good progress getting to the heart of the issues on site. Consequently, based on this better understanding, we've made a noncash rehabilitation provision of some $71 million to fund the ultimate closure costs for this 30 million-ounce resource. This will be paid over the life of the operation, which is longer than 30 years, and while we're not yet making any wild predictions for growth, what we have now is -- what we believe we now have is an asset making a real contribution that can start pushing towards 400,000 ounces by next year on its way to its next milestone of 500,000 ounces from the existing mine footprint. In the Americas, Ron Largent and the team have delivered another solid result, despite a 2% decline in contribution at an earnings level [Audio Gap] and while cash [Audio Gap] were up 17%, it did reflect some abnormal [Audio Gap] in the quarter that [Audio Gap] At Cripple Creek, production was marginally [Audio Gap] previous quarter at 70,000 ounces as [Audio Gap] closer to the [Audio Gap] sections is [Audio Gap] is still awaiting the [Audio Gap] gold. Notwithstanding the increase in production cost, we were up [Audio Gap] given the lower grade that were mined [Audio Gap] placed at a [Audio Gap] cost. Encouragingly, the chronic [Audio Gap] which has hampered the operation [Audio Gap] past year has shown some early signs of easing, with some rain in recent months. The team and the boys has done a great job under those conditions. Despite the [Audio Gap] ounce production level that [Audio Gap] achieving is up 25% [Audio Gap] we were 2 years [Audio Gap] Ron [Audio Gap] and the boys has worked [Audio Gap] in terms of turning the asset [Audio Gap] and all we [Audio Gap] remain one of the largest risk to forecasting production from South Africa, and we will, as usual, offer quarterly updates on their impact. Section 54 stoppages are an important tool for the state mine inspector to improve overall workplace standards. We have and will continue to support this and any measure that is reasonable to improve safety. We are, however, working closely with regulators to make sure we have a more collaborative approach, so that we can see if we can reduce the impact on production, so that we can realize, certainly, the real potential we see in the operation. At West Wits, the operations had a standout quarter, with each delivering significant production in cost improvements. Mponeng, the group's flagship mine, delivered an 18% increase in production of 138,000 ounces while costs were 12% lower. This was principally on the back of a 26% increase in the area mined following fewer operating disruptions. TauTona produced 24% more ounces and a commensurate drop in costs after a smoother operating quarter with a marked drop in interruptions. So we can get that Vaal River operations back into balance, we certainly -- we believe we'll see significant upside. Credit must also go to Bryan Penny's surface operations team, which turned in a 16% rise in gold production and a 19% drop in cash costs to $714 an ounce on the back of process consistency and grade improvements. The Vaal River operations struggled, as I mentioned a moment ago, with 31 full days of production, and that's by mine, not for the total division, stoppages across the region hitting our port hard even in comparison with previous quarter, which was disrupted by the industry-wide strike. All 3 mines registered double-digit percentage drops in output, but nonetheless managed good cost containment under tough circumstances. The output of uranium, principally a by-product in the Vaal River's gold production, showed a 12% drop from the previous quarter, largely due to the mining volumes for the region, lower mining volumes for the region. For the year, production was 1.38 million pounds and a processing cost of $26.68 per pound. Given the average received price in 2011 of $54.69 a pound, it's clear that this is a highly profitable [indiscernible], which will increase importance as recoveries and tonnages expand in coming years. I'll now hand it across to Venkat to take you through the financials before taking you back to the projects and our exploration activities.