Nicolas Finazzo
Analyst · Bert Subin with Stifel. Your line is open
Okay. That's a good question, Bert. Thanks for asking. The bull and the bear case, the bull case, which doesn't feel like a bull case, it feels more like a base case is the certification flight testing is imminent. Again, literally, it could be in weeks. Could it be in months? I don't think so. If I would - if I believed it would be in months, I would have stated that in the next several months, we'll get it certified. I think it's in - or do our flight testing. I think it's in the next several weeks. Typically, when flight testing or flight test certification is completed, typically, that's the last step in the certification process. Once it's completed, satisfactorily, and we expect it to be completed satisfactorily because we've flown the airplane and already demonstrated that it does what the regulations require, typically, at that point, you prove what you already know, you demonstrate it to the FAA. When that's completed, they do all their homework, they check all their boxes. Within 30 days, you get an STC. That's typical. So, let's take best case, bull case. It's - it won't happen next week because it's too early. Let's say --and then you've got Thanksgiving coming up soon thereafter. Let's say, we get it after Thanksgiving, maybe early December, we do our week of flight testing, we finish no issues. We don't expect there to be any issues, and we are coming up on a Christmas break. And hopefully, by then, the FAA will have done everything they need to do from a documentation point of view to go through the process of issuing the STC. We got Christmas involved. So, I don't expect we're going to have it in December. But I would expect if we do our flight testing in late November, late this month or early December, we will have the STC [ph] in January. And I think that, that really is the base case, too. I don't even think that's the bull case. The bear case could be we can't get the FAA to commit to flight testing this year. It flows into early January, and then everything shifts from there. That is the same thing. We get flight testing in early January when everybody comes back from vacation. Then it's a week of flight testing, 30 days to wait to get STC issuance that I think the bear case is the end - is mid to late first quarter. I don't have a bear case that says this would drag out significantly. There's no reason for it to drag out. The FAA has a responsibility to do the flight certification testing for us and to issue the STC when we've met all the requirements. And just so you know, the attitude of the FAA is very positive. They - this is new technology. This will be the first system with a head wearable display to be certified with this type of advanced technology. It's what was envisioned as one of the initiatives of the next-generation air traffic control system. The FAA wants to get this system certified. I think they all want to be a part of it. But remember, in light of the MAX, the FAA is being super cautious. So, we got a lot of people looking at this, which is good. We're - other than the fact that we've had to suffer through how long it takes. We'll have a good, solid prudent system that the FAA is comfortable with, and we will have the certification of this system, latest, I think, first quarter, latest at the end of the first quarter. I can't - I have no reason to tell you that it would - I can't think of a reason it would extend past the end of the first quarter.