Andrew Page
Analyst · Brooke Roach with Goldman Sachs. Brooke, please go ahead
Thanks James. With over 20% revenue growth, healthy margin expansion, strong free cash flow generation, and the continued transformation of our capital structure, the fourth quarter of 2024 marked a financial turning point in Amer Sports’ journey. Although expected FX headwinds will weigh slightly on our 2025 reported financial results, continued strong momentum from our highest-margin Technical Apparel Segment and accelerating momentum in Outdoor Performance Softgoods, plus strong and stable positions from our market-leading Hardgoods franchises, gives me confidence that Amer Sports is well positioned to deliver another year of strong and profitable growth in 2025. Let’s first take a moment to reflect on the key highlights of 2024. Amer Sports delivered 18% growth in 2024, with broad-based strength across brand segments, regions, channels, and categories. Arc’teryx and Salomon footwear continued their very strong trajectories, and Wilson returned to positive growth. We delivered meaningful adjusted operating margin expansion from 9.8% last year to 11.1% in 2024, driven by the mix shift towards Technical Apparel. And we also significantly reduced our leverage, effective tax rate, and annual interest expense. Now turning to our 4Q results. Amer Sports grew sales 23% in Q4, on a reported basis, and 24% in constant-currency. The strong Group sales performance was led by Technical Apparel, while Outdoor Performance and Ball & Racquet also delivered very solid growth in the quarter. By channel, the Group continues to be led by DTC, which grew 46% led by Arc’teryx and Salomon footwear. We saw solid wholesale growth of 6% year-over-year, led by improving trends at Wilson. Regional growth was led by Greater China, which increased 54%, followed by Asia Pacific, which grew 52%. The Americas accelerated to 15% growth, and EMEA grew 8% in Q4. We are pleased to again achieve over 50% growth in Greater China for both Q4 and the full year. There are several key reasons why we are confident in our future growth in this important consumer market. Number one, our brands compete in one of the high-quality and fastest-growing consumer segments in China; the premium sports and outdoor market. The outdoor trend in China continues to be very strong, attracting younger consumers, female consumers, and even luxury shoppers. Additionally, the China consumer landscape today has evolved into a market of winners and losers, with some brands doing extremely well, including ours. Our still small, specialized brands are known for their expertise, high quality, and technical innovation, which resonates with Chinese shoppers. Thirdly and most important, we believe we have a great team in China. Our deep expertise and unique, scalable operating platform gives us a significant competitive advantage across the portfolio. Turning to profitability, adjusted gross margin increased 370 basis points to 56.4% in Q4, primarily driven by positive segment, product, regional, and channel mix shift combined with lower discounting actions. Going forward, we expect our highest gross margin franchise Arc’teryx, to continue to be the biggest underlying driver of our ongoing gross margin expansion. Adjusted SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenues deleveraged by 20 basis points and represented 43.3% of revenues in Q4. The Technical Apparel and Outdoor Performance SG&A deleverage was driven by investments to support growth, and was partially offset by Ball & Racquet and headquarters expense leverage. Driven by the strong gross margin expansion, we generated a 330 basis point increase in our adjusted operating margin from 10.3% last year to 13.6% in Q4. Adjusted corporate expenses were $12 million, down from $17 million in Q4 of last year. D&A was $77 million which includes $37 million of ROU depreciation. Adjusted net finance cost in the quarter was $64 million, and included $24 million of FX losses on intercompany balances as a result of the significant appreciation of the USD in Q4. Going forward we will enhance our hedge program to include these intercompany transactions. In the quarter, our adjusted income tax expense was $67 million, which equates to an adjusted effective tax rate of 42%. Adjusted net income was $90 million in Q4, compared to an adjusted net loss of $31 million in the prior year period. Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.17 compared to adjusted diluted loss per share of $0.08 last year. Turning to segment results. Technical Apparel revenues increased 33% to $745 million led by Arc’teryx. Growth was fueled by 44% DTC expansion, including a 29% omni-comp, a great result comparing against a 33% omni-comp in the fourth quarter of last year. Arc’teryx DTC momentum continues to be fueled by both new and existing consumers across all regions, channels and product categories. Technical Apparel wholesale revenues were roughly flat, driven by timing of shipments compared to prior year. We continue to have strong demand for Arc’teryx from the wholesale channel. Regionally, Technical Apparel growth was led by Greater China, followed by Asia Pacific, the Americas and EMEA. All regions grew strong double digits fueled by Arc’teryx’s retail expansion. Technical Apparel adjusted operating margin expanded 130 basis points to 24.3%, driven by higher gross margins from favorable product, channel and regional mix, and supported by savings in freight costs. This was partly offset by SG&A deleverage driven by investments in technology, marketing and operations to support continued DTC expansion, including new store openings. Moving to our Outdoor Performance Segment, which saw revenues increase 13% to $594 million mainly driven by very strong performance in Salomon footwear, apparel, bags, and socks. The DTC channel grew strong double digits driven by door openings, especially in Asia Pacific, Greater China, and EMEA, as well as e-commerce development in all regions. This was partially offset by a decline in Winter Sports Equipment due to soft reorders in Europe resulting from poor snow conditions and also a material FX drag due to its large Euro exposure. By channel, Outdoor Performance DTC grew 58%, led by Greater China and APAC, and wholesale improved to plus 1%, from a slight decline last quarter. The wholesale results are impacted by continued soft wholesale market conditions in EMEA and North America for Winter Sports Equipment. 2024 was challenging for the Winter Sports Equipment market overall due to slower trends in North America, where ski equipment sales are rebasing after a strong run through and beyond COVID. This is in addition to cautious orders in EMEA after two tough snow seasons in Europe. However, given our great brands and products and scale advantages, we believe we are taking market share, especially in Atomic. Our assumption is that the Winter Sports Equipment market will be relatively flat in 2025. Longer-term, while the Winter Sports Equipment business will be a slower growth business for us, the industry remains healthy and we expect this business to grow low-single digits annually. As a reminder, Winter Sports Equipment now represents one-third of the Outdoor Performance segment. Outdoor Performance adjusted operating profit margin expanded 190 basis points from last year’s record performance to 11.1% this year, driven by solid gross margin expansion given the higher mix of footwear, which carry a higher gross margin than Winter Sports Equipment. This gross margin expansion was partially offset by SG&A deleverage to support growth investments. Moving to Ball & Racquet. Revenue increased 22% to $296 million driven by Racquet Sports and Softgoods. The strong growth was also helped by easier comparisons from last year when Wilson went through a heavier liquidations period to normalize inventory levels. We are very pleased with the strong rebound, but would caution that 20+ percent is not a sustainable growth rate, and we continue to expect Ball & Racquet to grow low-to-mid single digits long term. By category, the strong double-digit growth was led by our marquee Racquet sports franchise as well as our small but fast-growing Softgoods segment, By category, the strong double-digit growth was led by our marquee Racquet sports franchise as well as our small but fast-growing Softgoods segment, which now represents 10% of Ball & Racquet sales. We are seeing very strong momentum in Tennis 360 especially in North America, Greater China and APAC. We also saw strong growth in Evoshield Apparel, Padel and Pickleball. Inflatable balls and baseball also grew in the quarter, while golf declined slightly. Ball & Racquet segment adjusted operating profit margin increased 660 basis points compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 to negative 3.7% primarily driven by higher full price sales given the inventory clearance in the second half of last year, when the channel inventories were elevated. SG&A leveraged thanks to tight cost control on higher revenue. Turning to the balance sheet, funded by our recent $1 billion equity raise and strong cash conversion in Q4, we paid down our entire $1.2 billion of term loans before year-end and ended the quarter with $600 million of net debt, down from $2 billion at the end of Q3. Using our 2024 adjusted operating profit, our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was approximately 0.7x at the end of Q4. Looking forward, paying down non-deductible interest debt remains a high return usage of excess cash. Also our focus on inventory discipline is paying off. Inventories rose 11% in 2024, well below our 18% sales growth. Driven by strong profit growth and disciplined working capital management, we generated $425 million of operating cash flow in 2024, which translated to approximately $150 million of free cash flow for the year. I would also like to provide an update on our sourcing exposure in light of the contemplated new tariffs on imports from China, Canada, Mexico and Vietnam. In 2024, sourcing to the U.S. from China, Vietnam, Canada and Mexico combined represented approximately 20% of global sourcing. China and Vietnam make up the majority of this exposure, while sourcing from Canada and Mexico to the U.S. accounts for less than 1% of the total. Similar to when we experienced a rise in China tariffs in 2018 and 2019, our Ball & Racquet segment will be most impacted. However, given our various mitigation levers including price increases, supply chain flexibility and partnership with Windus [ph] to share the impact, we believe we are well equipped to weather a variety of tariff scenarios. Now turning to guidance, we are off to a strong start in 2025 and are confident in our financial outlook for 2025. As we have said on previous earnings calls, should strong trends continue and better than anticipated demand materialized, we will be well positioned to deliver financial performance ahead of our expectations. For the full year of 2025, we expect reported group revenue growth between 13% and 15%, which assumes a 250 basis points drag from unfavorable FX impact at current exchange rates. This incorporates approximately 20% growth in technical apparel, low-double digit revenue growth in outdoor performance and low to mid-single digit growth in Ball & Racquet. We expect adjusted gross margin of 56.5% to 57% for the full year, driven primarily by mix shift benefits. We expect adjusted operating profit margin of approximately 11.5% to 12%. Given macro uncertainties, including FX and tariffs, our current margin expectations are more focused toward the low end of this margin range, at least until we have a quarter or two quarters under our belts. For the segments, we expect an adjusted operating margin of approximately 21% for technical apparel, approximately 9.5% for outdoor performance and 3% to 4% for Ball & Racquet. You should assume full year net finance cost of approximately $120 million and an effective tax rate of approximately 33%. We expect adjusted diluted EPS of $0.64 to $0.69 per share, which is based on approximately 560 million fully diluted shares. Also we are assuming D&A of $350 million, including approximately $180 million of ROU depreciation. To support our new store expansion, ERP implementation and distribution and logistics investments, CapEx is expected to be approximately $300 million, in line with 2024. Turning to the first quarter guidance, we expect reported revenue growth for the group in the range of 14% to 16%, which assumes a 300 basis point drag from unfavorable FX impact at current exchange rates. We expect adjusted gross margin to range between 56.5% and 57% in Q1 of 2025 and an adjusted operating profit margin of 11% to 11.5%. Our net finance cost for the quarter will be approximately $30 million and an effective tax rate will be approximately 33%. We expect adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.14 to $0.15 per share. With that, I will turn it back to the operator for Q&A.