Michael Weinstein
Analyst · Robert Meador, a Private Investor
Hi, everybody. One of the big factors in this December quarter was the fact that this year, New Year’s Eve fell into our March quarter of fiscal 2016, when last year, it fell in the December quarter. It’s hard to quantify what that cost us in terms of EBITDA but in a way, that might be helpful. For the 6 weeks ending February of this year compared to last year, we’re up excluding sales in Sequoia. But away from Sequoia, we’re up about $1.1 million in sales. We’re not up $1.1 million in ordinary business, it’s just the flow of New Year’s Eve into the present 6 weeks that’s impacting that number on the upside. We’re still up in comp sales but not by that much. And so the influence of having that 1-day switch of New Year’s Eve impacted EBITDA. Again, it’s not quite quantifiable but it was a big factor. Generally, in that quarter, the December quarter just reported, one of the big influences again was Sequoia. You almost have a look at Sequoia as a startup. We’re carrying way too much payroll as we train people in the December quarter. That has come down now. But the September, October, November, December periods, we’re doing a lot of training. What is gratifying is that Sequoia over the December quarter compared to the prior December quarter was up 13.7% in sales. So the P&L might not look this good but the top line is looking very good. And we’ve always been good at getting the equation right, in getting all the elements of running an operation of this size in line. So we’re very encouraged by the sales. And the second thing about being up 13.7% is that since Sequoia did not open until late summer, we had a difficult time selling for fall and winter events, private events, because people couldn’t see the place finished. So we sort of missed that season. So the regular business is what’s really up dramatically. And we’re sure the event business with the additional event space that we created within the facility will rise as well. The other encouraging thing about this is that as our sales force got people to come into the place once it was finished, the ratio of people who visit and book is extremely, extremely high. I’m told it’s like 88% of the people that come visit with the idea of doing an event there are booking. So we seem to be getting on the right path here with what we’ve built, the look of the place, the additional event space, the fact that comp sales are up 13% for this – the January, February period-to-date. So we think that’s very healthy. The other part of our business that is extremely strong is Las Vegas right now. We’re – for the December – for the six weeks ending February, we’re up 19% in Las Vegas. Again, part of that is the flow of New Year’s Eve, which is a big day in Vegas. But we’re up dramatically and one of the reasons for that is hockey has come to Vegas. The venue is right within the New York-New York park that borders on the New York-New York Hotel. So we’re seeing tremendous traffic every time they have a hockey game. That’s a new element. In addition to which Vegas, I’m told, has the best economy in the United States right now. Business trip is up, spending is strong. So Las Vegas has been a pleasant surprise. One of the other things there is as we grew volume, we become more efficient both in terms of payroll and cost of goods sold. So margins are benefiting from that as well. We spoke last time about Rustic Inn and the detour and how we were waiting for this bridge to be finished to avoid a three-mile detour to get to the place. The bridge was finished in late December. What we’re seeing is a dramatic pickup in sales. Again, for the 13 weeks, we were up anyway by 8%. But now that number has expanded to where we’re up about 10% from comp sales last year. We think we will recover that missing EBITDA that we had prior to the bridge being taken down. Again, that missing EBITDA was about $700,000. It seems to me if we can keep this 10% gain in comp sales that we’ll recapture the total of that $700,000. So we’re pleased about that. New York remains fairly strong. We have one restaurant in Boston that has struggled the last few years. It continues to struggle. The Alabama properties are doing what they’re supposed to be doing pretty much. For the 12-week period, we were up about 7% in comp sales for the December quarter. We’re about flat for the first six weeks of February. Alabama. When you think of Alabama and the Gulf Coast, you think the seasonality should not be as big of a factor. But these two highly seasonal restaurants, they start to get going in late March, early April so we sort of skewed everything toward the summer months, where the cash comp really starts to work for us. But overall, business is solid. We think we’re on the path that we explained in the last quarter which we’ll – where we gave guidance of $14 million-plus in EBITDA. We don’t see anything interrupting that right now. If anything, if Vegas keeps going the way it’s going, we may be a little bit stronger than that. Sequoia still remains to be seen until we get into the summer months and see what the new configuration really can do. But we are comfortable that we’re going to at least recapture our old EBITDA and capital allocation would have been a problem if we don’t go beyond that. So I hope that gives you an idea of what’s going on here. We’re very, very comfortable with our business at this point. And I’ll take questions if there are any.